CANTOR: HYPE OR TRAIN SMASH?

Jay H. Ell has always wondered why isolated US elections never seem to evoke too much interest and extrapolation by the pundits. Jay H. Ell comes from a British Commonwealth Westminster Parliamentary environment where every election, minor or major, was analyzed up the ying yang as to it’s reflection of the overall electorate’s sentiments. Since coming to the US he has been consistently put down. In the words of the legendary House Speaker, Tip O’ Neill, “All politics are local”, he has been told. After all do 65 thousand of 235 million voters represent political reality? Jay H. Ell believes that there have to be factors that are relevant to the whole electorate that are involved in every political election, where ever it may be. Finally, the defeat of Eric Cantor, the number two Republican in the House of Representatives, in an election as to who was be the nominee in a very safe Republican House seat, has proved him correct. The whole American political world is analyzing why and what it means.

THE FACTS .

As Fox News, in their internet news letter has stated, the 28% turnout in the Primary of the 7th Virginian District was above the normal interest so that this was not as a result of “apathy”. Also Cantor spent over $5 million on the campaign to his opponent Brat’s less than $200,000. So the result is as reflective as it can be for that District.

The Virginia’s 7th Congressional District had been gerrymandered to the extent that the highly conservative Cantor could never ever fear challenge from the Democrats. How was he to know that the challenge would come from the right?

Ostensibly the central issue was immigration and Cantor’s alleged support of it. While this will remain the conventional wisdom there is no support in the polls in West Virginia for that assumption. Generally speaking, the surveys show 70% of the voters in that Primary were supportive of the plight of the undocumented Latinos and reform. However, as this was what Brat ran on it will stick as the rationale as to why he won and Cantor lost. 

All the polls supported Cantor. His own internal polls showed him winning by a 40% margin and Nate Silver, the Moses of prognostication, gave him at least a 20% advantage. It is not an unreasonable assumption to make, that in the current political environment, polls mean nothing.

The Tea Party has claimed success but they were nowhere in sight during the election. Part of the reason they weren’t there is that Cantor has been their man in the House of Representatives. Other than the occasional move to support Boehner, he was the leader of the Tea Party faction allowing nothing to be done in Congress other than propose the revoking of Obamacare. He was the de facto leader of the Tea Party in that he oversaw that the minority of Congressmen that the Tea Party represented, had their way.

So why was Cantor beaten? 

THE REAL FACTS

Jay H. Ell has blogged till he is blue in the face that there is a major difference between public opinion and what the Republican Party Policy is in Congress. Women’s rights, minimum wage increase, contraception, immigration reform, increased taxation for rich, job creation, income inequality, allowing student loans to adjust to current interest rates, background checks for guns, and on and on, all have 70% rating. Yet while the country burns, Obamacare, Benghazi and Bergdahl and now Iraq are the sum total of the Republican agenda. They also still divide America up into the “givers” and the “takers”. The “givers” because they have “given” should “give” less. As for the “takers” the Ryan budget will “take” more from them as they have"taken" enough.

Now in this above reality in the mid term elections this selfsame Republican Party, whoever they eventually pan out to be, are expected to takeover the Senate by winning six seats in the Senate and increase their majority in the House. This is all explained by the dictum that, “All politics are local”. The polls also back these predictions at the moment. Jay H. Ell has lost faith in the polls in this current environment.

THE REALITY

The reality is that the impotent electorate is totally disgusted with Washington - their politicians, their lobbyists, their plutocrats, and their President as well. 

Congress job disapproval at present, is 79% and approval rating is 14%. Obama’s job disapproval rating is 53% and approval rating is 43%. According to Rasmussen polling, 72% of participants believe that most of the current Congressmen should not be reelected. A generic poll gives the Democrats 41% of the vote and Republicans 37%. Fifty- nine percent of Republican voters maintain that their Congress representatives are out of touch with their base. (Whichever one that maybe!). 

So there is a general discontent with government. On the face of it this anger is amorphous and has not gelled around issues. The challenge for the Democrats is for them to mobilize the electorate to vote for the issues that they ostensibly support. There is no doubt this will be reflected by 2016 but the midterm elections remain “murky”.

SO THE REAL REALTIY

So Cantor got kicked out for all of the above. The issue was ostensibly immigration but the electorate that removed him are 70% in favor of the immigrants’ plight. The real reason was that everyone was sick and tired of being taken for granted and ignored. They were more moved by this arrogance as well as Cantor’s personal arrogance than they were by how terribly important was “immigration”. Cantor, probably the most powerful figure in their party, was given a message to deliver to the party.

In case the Tea Party are written off as a total joke they have a clear cut philosophy some of which  conflicts in many ways with the Establishment Republican Party. Ironically, the issue that Brat rated the most important was his free market agenda. This coincides with a key Democratic approach. Big business needs to stay out of politics maintain the Tea Party and Brat. Brat attacked the Chamber of Commerce in this Primary. The latter was a big supporter of Cantor.

HOW WILL THIS PLAY IN PEORIA AND EVERY WHERE ELSE

The opinion of 65,000 of about 235,000,000 voters all of a sudden is changing the way the world perceives reality. 

While it is obvious that the anger is at the dysfunction of Congress the Republican Congressmen response is to do even less. If they do more, they believe, the “Tea Party” will vote them out in their primaries. If, however, they maintain that attitude they will all be thrown out anyway. If Eric Cantor is too left for his electorate then they all are. (Except those that say no to 100% of legislation and not 99.8%).

Just to take the one issue that the majority of the electorate are in favor of, immigration reform.  If the GOP Congressmen do nothing about that they believe that makes them safer in their own constituencies. Well it may just usher them out of power in 2016. The most important demographic is the Latino vote. Boehner knows it and he mocked his caucus for not being prepared to take it on. After the Cantor Primary he will join those he mocked

So the conventional wisdom is that the Virginia Primary is an electorate move to the right. It is not. It is a move to register disgust. The Tea Party are on the whole losing traction but they have left their imprimatur on what one might call the “new” GOP. The “new” GOP  in order to counter the Tea Party have taken over several of their principles. 

If this trend continues the GOP, as we all understand it, will eventually disintegrate. This may not happen in 2014 but as the issues gel and are attached to parties they cannot run on negatives forever. The electorate is generally confused and has not kept up with the chaos and transformation of the Republican Party. If Republican voters are still screaming at Obamacare as it will take away their Medicare they are still buying that and that Obama is the total problem.

The Democrats are still lumped with the Congress dysfunction and have their work cut out to distance themselves from the no work GOP. But as time proceeds it will be obvious who stands for what. For the country’s sake there need to be clear cut choices. 

Finally, to answer the question of the blog -“ Cantor - Hype or Train Smash?”, it is a “train smash” for the Republican Party. It is a wake up call. However they have got the message wrong it is not to move to the right and to axe immigration reform for example. It is to present a clear cut alternative. It is a message to stop running on negatives and produce alternatives that can be debated and if necessary compromised on.