What has changed in American Politics since Jay H. Ell blogged and blogged that Obama could not loose the 2012 election? This he argued because the GOP had no alternate policies, they were the unashamed party of the rich and they had offended or had no attractive policy to all the key swing demographics - the youth, the Hispanics, the African Americans, the Women and the LBGT’s. Well nothing has changed in the GOP narrative in18 months to persuade those demographics to find the GOP more acceptable. Also the internecine split between, whom Sheldon Adelson affectionately calls, the “Crazies” and the party establishment is no nearer resolution than it was in 2012.
Notwithstanding those facts the accepted wisdom of all the pundits is that not only are the Democrats not going to take back the House they are going to lose the Senate. Even the Democratic Party believe so. Why, as my three year old grandson might ask? The short answer is money, the spin on Obamacare and voter repression. This response is just not going to satisfy my grandson and he will simply rejoin with yet another, Why?
So Why?
FIRSTLY: GOP STRATEGY- ATTACK OBAMA AND HIS CARE
The GOP has still not articulated an alternate coherent policy on anything let alone health care so they have elected to go with attacking Obama and his Obamacare. And they are serious. (Blogs: 2014 Agendas: Income Inequality = Obama and Obamacare = GOP; 1/9/13 and Obama and the Lynch Mob; 2/27/14). The major legislative initiative in the Republican controlled House of Representatives is to repeal Obamacare, the Affordable Health Care Act, (AHCA), which has now been brought to the floor 51 times. The GOP has continued on and on even though a poll a few months ago only 17% of the electorate rated Obamacare a key issue. Further, the poll numbers on acceptability of the AHCA have been creeping up and up and now are at about 50% as are Obama’s acceptability figures which are now at 46% after languishing in the 30%’s for months.
The GOP were helped by a disastrous start to the website of the AHCA. In spite of that, the recruitment to Obamacare has been a major success. Over 7 million have signed on to the program, 3 million children under 26 on their parents programs and nearly 5 million have taken the opportunity to enlist in an expanded Medicaid. So of the 40,000,000 Americans who did not have insurance 1 year ago conservatively 15,000,000 now have got it. This even though 25 of the Governors of the Republican States refused to enroll any of their newly eligible Medicaid citizens into the program and to set up State websites to enroll those who were eligible for Obamacare.
So on its face the Republicans should have egg on their faces so why is this not so and why are even the Democrats wilting under the Obama and Obamacare onslaught? This rather than going to those States where the Republicans are depriving their citizens of healthcare and attacking them for their dog in the manger attitude.
SECONDLY: THE SUPREME COURT CREATED PLUTOCRATS
The Supreme Court in their monumental decision on Citizen’s United versus the Federal Electoral Commission threw away the US Constitution’s objective of creating a life of equality and justice for all. In this landmark case, in 2010, they interpreted the First Amendment as equating Freedom of Speech with money. They then interpreted that moneyed corporations had the same rights as individuals. This meant that there need be no limits that individuals and corporations could donate to entities such as Political Action Committees. This flew in teeth of precedents and bipartisan Congress legislation, (which is in of itself is a relic only found in the Smithsonian Museum). The legislation was entitled the McCain - Feingold Law. The latter was designed to limit the enormous amounts of money expended in political campaigns. A key provision of the act was an attempt to control the unlimited spending by Political Action Committees, (PACS), on electoral issues. And what better way is there for the PACS to spend this money then on attacking Obama and his Care.
(The Supreme Court’s on April 2nd has, in addition upheld the Republican Party contention that should be no limits to the number of candidates an individual can donate directly to. While the sum of money has not changed for any one candidate as the individual can now donate to every candidate thereby increasing the fixed total amount previously from about $123,000 per election cycle to 3.5 million. This could add literally hundreds of millions into the system. Once again the rationale for the 5 - 4 majority of the Robert’s Court was to equate money with the Freedom of Speech.
( The Supreme Court is in addition deciding whether Corporations are entitled to deprive third parties of their rights, (Blog: The Supreme Court, Contraception, The Constitution and Society; 3/28/14).
THIRDLY: THE BILLIONAIRE PLUTOCRATS ARE THUS FINALLY IN FULL CONTROL.
The 2012 election saw the beginnings of the 2010 Supreme Court, Citizens United, decision impact on the electoral process. However, it was not all in full swing. The demographics were the over riding factor, so Obama could not lose as Jay H. Ell blogged. In 2014 the billionaires are better organized and coordinated to spend more and more to thwart the agendas of the groups other than the white males. This money is being used to influence the congressional elections.
Already Congress’s legislation is all but controlled by big money and corporations. (Blog: The Moneyed in Politics - The Sixth Estate and their lobbyists; 2/20/14).
Thus 0.1% of the US population control legislation and have now have limitless money to influence which representatives are elected to introduce that legislation. If the Hobby Lobby decision goes the way it is expected then the plutocrats and their corporations will be also empowered to strip large groups of their rights under existing legislation. (The Supreme Court, Contraception, The Constitution and Sanity; 3/28/14).
THE KOCH PLUTOCRATS TAKE OVER
So with Citizen’s United in full swing the Koch Brothers Political Action Committee, (PAC), has already poured nearly a half a billion dollars into the 2014 mid term elections and there are 9 months to go. In the past three months the Koch brothers have changed the pollsters forecasts of the US Senate elections. Nate Silver the foremost independant pollster has predicted a 60% of chance of the Republicans taking over the Senate.
To give one some idea of the bombardment of the media waves this represents, according to Reverend Al Sharpton, the Koch Brothers have already run 17,000 ads in this campaign as compared to a combined total of 2,100 by the Republican Party. National Public Radio has broadcast that the Kochs’ PAC has purchased more ads than all the other PACs, Political Parties, Interest Groups and Unions put together. These ads are mainly in the 12 Senate Races that the Republicans have the best chance of taking and they only need to win 6 of these to take control of the Senate.
Guess what the major content of the ads are? You guest right - attacks on Obamacare. So it is understandable that at this stage of the game that the Republican candidates will have more name recognition than their opponents and that perceptions of Obamacare will suck. Several of the ads on Obamacare, when fact checked, have been found to be wrong but so what. The reason, that for the moment, the Obama smear ads have stuck is that at least 70 - 80% of people are already insured. The ads are aimed at the insured stating that Obamacare threatens their care as it is going to change the way medicine works! Where they are right is that with the American patch work of health care insurance companies change programs, drop doctors add or subtract services and the like as a matter of course. To further complicate the situation an employer may get a better deal and go to another carrier with different doctors..… Finally, the Kochs have found someone to blame for this mess - Obamacare!
Now the Kochs are not taking over the country totally out of loyalty to the flag as their massive business interests are protected by the present basis of wealth distribution and tax code malfunction. Sad to say that they only need a percent or two of their money to “buy” the country which is going cheap.
SHELDON ADELSON - PLUTOCRAT DELUXE
This colorful casino mogul between him and his good lady are deciding who to anoint, with at least a $100,000,000, for their Presidential campaign. So the Supreme Court has not only opened the way to purchase Congress but also the Presidency. There is one qualification, however, that the Adelsons have, before dishing out this chump change. Adelson does want to back one of the Republican “crazies”. He has enough experience doing that in the last election by backing Gingrich and Romney. His qualification put off, at least, Perry, Ryan, Paul, Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, Jindal and a few other “crazies” from attending the mundane Jewish Republican Congress in Vegas. However, Christie, Jed Bush, Walker and Kakish, all relatively sane apparently, showed up to what has now been labelled, Sheldon’s Primary.
While Sheldon’s support of Israel is near and dear to his heart, he is more than aware that he will get that from any candidate so cynics say that he is really looking for a candidate that will support an online gambling ban. He is passionately against online gambling Jay H. Ell is sure for the most altruistic of reasons.
So the Presidency is now officially up for sale with the Supreme Court blessing to go ahead and spend limitless money on the choice.
FOURTHLY; VOTER SUPPRESSION.
Now none of this money can change the demographics of the voters. But once again Robert’s Supreme Court has been advantageous to the Republicans. In 2013 they gutted the central provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act which was passed at the height of the Civil Right’s Movement. The latter legislation was enacted to ensure voting rights for all voters. It is interesting to note that this was another of the Congress’s bipartisan rarities never having been challenged for decades. The ostensible reason for the Court’s decision was that the 1965 Act was not consistent with present day realities. Voter suppression moves had started prior to this ruling but snowballed following its publication.
There are 9 states that are in the process of making it more difficult to vote and several to follow. It is no secret that those hardest hit will be where the demographics favor the Democrats. The steps taken include the requirement of, difficult to obtain, identity documents, the reduction of opportunities to register for voting, decreasing voting days and voting hours, fewer voting stations, greater difficulties to complete absentee or provisional ballots.
FIFTHLY: GERRYMANDERING VOTER DISTRICTS.
The above entails drawing up districts more favorable to your Party winning more seats in the House of Representatives. This has been done by both Parties in the past but as fate would have it is favoring the Republicans at this moment in time.
SIXTHLY: THE ELECTION TECHNICALS
Midterm elections traditionally do not favor the Party of the President, Even more so when the President is in his second term. As pundits point out, in every piece, of the 12 Senate seats up for election 7 are traditional “red” States and 5 are swing states leaning to “red”. So what hope have the Democrats really got?
So that is why!
THE DEMS AND OBAMA AND OBAMACARE
The Democrats are “freaking out” at this turn of events and even Obama sent an e -mail saying that he would get straight to the point that the Democrats are in danger of loosing the Senate. But in a way the Dems are feeding off the Republican Plutocracy making the Koch Brothers the bogeymen by warning the base to mobilize or the Koch brothers will control both houses. They are doing what they have done again and again building up a grassroots organization with small donations. These are the people that will bring the voters to the polls.
They also must not be tentative about supporting Obama and ObamaCare. It is a success and Obama has got his mojo back. (Blog: Obama bounces back with a bang; 1/29/14). It is time for the Dems to go on the attack. Bill Clinton reckons the Dems must run with Obamacare. The Dems must also realize that the insurance registration turnout is a vote in confidence in Obama himself.
Jay H. Ell has long been blogging that Obamacare was going to come back and bite the Republicans. ( Blogs: Obamacare and Obamascare Explained; 9/28/13 and Obamacare is Dead. So is Obama and Liberalism; 12/22/13). There were those including Boehner who mocked at the initial sign ups - they couldn’t fill a College Football Stadium. The GOP, to a man, forecast disaster and now there are roughly 15,000,000 people who never had insurance that have it. This with 25 Republican Governors neither setting up websites nor enrolling their citizens on the Medicaid they were entitled too.
So Obamacare is here to stay and the Republicans are running on nothing. As the months unfold towards the election there are going to be more word of mouth stories of the positivity of Obamcare. The Republicans cannot give up smearing it as it their only game in town. Their story is now that the “books were cooked”. Paul Ryan has once again called for its repeal in the 2104 Republican Budget Proposal.
Whatever the outcome of this election there is very little doubt that American Democracy is being put to its stiffest test for some time. Never before have the outcome of elections been so openly and blatantly subject to the whims of a few who have so much. If money does triumph they may as well change the Constitution to one dollar one vote. Or one can just believe Ted Cruz when he says that the single biggest lie in American politics is that the Republicans are the party of the rich.
Jay H. Ell is not nearly as pessimistic about the outcome of the elections as is Nate Silver and all the pundits. This scenario still has to play out and it has 9 months to go. Having said that, Obamacare is not yet over all its hurdles. It faces hosts of court challenges and every glitch and every patient complaint will be seized upon by a political party desperate for an issue to run on.
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