PUTIN - FOOLS RUSSIAN WHERE ANGELS……

The international scene has been, of late, totally dominated by Vladimir Putin, (Blog: Putin - The Last Russian Tzar?). The Russian President has already bagged  Crimea and is sizing up to do the same to Eastern Ukraine. The media scene, that is generally  conducted like an ongoing soap opera or reality show, has rated “The Putin Show” high up there with the disappearance of the Malaysian aircraft and even more than the Oscar Pistorius murder trial or the sinking of the Korean ferry boat. In the parlance, “This story has legs”.

Now there are many aspects to this saga; Among these include the recreation of the Cold War with Putin making a grab to build up the good old USSR so as to make a game of it versus the USA and NATO; The fear of another Hitler - “This is my last territorial demand”; How to manage Putin and the whole situation diplomatically, politically and militarily as well as what is Putin going to do next? What help if any should be afforded to Ukraine ? Finally, at the end of the day what does this all mean?

PUTIN’S AGENDA.

While ostensibly a diplomatic agreement had been reached between Ukraine, Russia, USA, and the EU it has been ignored by all those that matter. The Russian separatists say they take orders from no one. They have continued to occupy buildings, fly their flag and hang onto their weapons. They claim that the current Ukranian leadership is illegal. Obama predicted this outcome so that Putin is left with all his “options”. At the very least the Ukrainian Presidential election in May will be a shambles.

Thus it should be pretty obvious what Putin is going to do next, (Blog; Putin Pulls Out the Old USSR Playbook). Putin is going to “invade” Eastern Yugoslavia on the pretext that he is responding to local Russian demands and or victimization of the ethnic Russians or whatever. Forty thousand Russian troops on the border of East Ukraine are not there for fun. Next on his agenda may well be supporting the Russian leaning Transitanian section of Muldovia. The latter is close to the port of Odessa which is the last remaining lifeline of Ukraine, or what will be left of it that is, to the world. If Odessa “rises up” to join the good old fatherland, what can poor Putin do other than welcome them with open arms. Putin’s vision ultimately includes the whole of the Ukraine and Muldovia

For the moment this apparently makes Putin a hit in Russia who are hankering for the good old days when nobody but nobody laughed at Russia, aka the USSR. On the international scene Putin adds to his credentials as the uncontrollable brat who backs Syria and Iran and is no pushover to gain his acquiescence to gain sanity in this mad mad world. In short Putin is a player and don’t you forget it. He is sticking to his playbook, where to quote The Queen, in Alice Through The Looking Glass, “Things Mean What I say Them To Mean”

 RESPONSES TO THE CRISIS

The Ukrainian Ambassador to the US appealed for help as Putin was deploying mercenaries to create a situation where he could invade.  He wanted help of the “real kind”. There were no shortages of support for him especially from the “Cold War” and “Hitler” brigade. They added another factor too in that they did not want to see the USA seem “weak”. The influential syndicated right wing columnist Charles Krauthammer hammered Obama for his “pathetic” response and called on him to give Ukraine weapons. In addition he recommended the renewal of the missile defense agreement with Poland and Czechoslovakia. Ambassador Jeffrey who had served in Iraq suggested ground troops in the neighboring countries. Former NATO  commander Wesley Clark maintained that the USA should at least provide Ukraine with “non lethal aid”. This includes communication accessories, body armor, medical supplies and the sharing of intelligence.

The iconic Kissinger stated that rather than get involved the USA should facilitate the Ukrainians  to recognize their historic differences. The Ukrainians should seek conciliation between their two disparate heritages - the West and the East. Really very sweet and almost naive advice from the former pragmatic and most cynical Secretary of State, but as he should know, hardly practical.  

Obama

Thus far Obama has done very little. He has provided 300,000 meals and there was a meeting with the CIA Director and his Ukrainian counterpart. However, he is unlikely to become involved anymore than he has become in the Syrian travesty. Obama has being playing “bad cop” to Kerry’s “good cop” approach to Putin. While Kerry has done everything he can so as not to offend Putin, the POTUS has made it quite clear that he considers Putin a light weight. Putin trying to put the best possible spin on Obama’s disdain of him reflected in a TV interview that he was sure Obama would rescue him if he was drowning!

It is fair to say that Ukraine is going to be thrown under the bus. The USA and NATO are no longer interested in resolving complex problems with simplistic solutions. If you back the Syrian opposition who are you really backing  - Al Quada or the genuine oppressed ? The conventional wisdom is that the Ukraine establishment and military are so infiltrated by the Soviets that who will the NATO forces be helping - Russia or Ukraine? So Obama is content to watch and galvanize the inevitable collapse of Putin’s economy.

Kasparov

Russian dissident Gary Kasparov, former world chess champion, which puts him in the league of Michael Jordan, and Pele in the Russian world, has plenty to contribute in the current crisis.  He adjudged that the Americans “should follow the money”. This was all about Putin and not about Russia. They should put economic sanctions on Putin and the elites that follow him and that might move the latter to sense. Kasparov cautioned the West that negotiating with Putin was a waste of time.

PUTIN’S REALITY

Putin’s reality and prognosis is grim. Even if the one State run opinion poll in Russia is accurate and his ratings are really 80% they are not going to last that for long. His economic and financial predicament is parlous. He spent $50 Billion on the Sochi games and $60 billion on Crimea. According to David Hersezenhorn of the New York Times the Russian economy was in a free fall even before any of the projected sanctions are set into motion. With Putin’s imperialistic machinations, $70 billion has already left the country and it is predicted that that figure can easily double. With 40,000 soldiers on full alert the cash register must be chink chinking along.  

We are beginning to talk real money in a country whose GDP is barely $2 trillion. The bank interest rate has gone up 50% from 5% to 7.5% and the anticipated GDP growth rate has been downgraded from 2.5% to zero for 2014. In addition to the double digit percentage stock exchange drop the ruble value has dropped likewise in tandem. In a country that relies heavily on imports of durable goods this will push up the already high inflation even further. To add insult to injury Russia has heavily invested in Eastern Ukraine that is currently at a standstill. Projects due to start in Russia have been put on hold. Skilled personnel have likewise emigrated in higher than usual numbers.

All this and more before sanctions. The US financial and investing institutions have all been served notice that economic sanctions are on their way. Even before Crimea and Ukraine, let alone the forthcoming sanctions, the picture was not to bright according to Prime Minister Medvedev and Finance Minister Siluanov. There had been overspending by the government at all levels.

So how much longer can Putin pout and strut on the world stage and play out the old USSR playbook? (Blog: Putin - The Last Russian Tzar).There was plenty of bluff in the old USSR but remember no one knew what was going on then. There was the iron curtain. There was no financial interdependence. There was no internet. So Obama’s disdain for the Russian President isn’t based only on his objectionable personality. (Blog: Putin Put In His Place).

PUTIN’S WEAPONS

How can Putin fight back when economic sanctions bite? His main weapon is his energy exports. He can withhold energy from Ukraine and Europe. That factor has to be one that is holding the NATO allies back for the moment as it attempts to arrange for alternate supplies. To say that is a double edged sword for Putin is a masterpiece of understatement. His real only source of capitol will dry up exacerbating his precarious financial woes. Not of course that will eliminate that option from this throwback to the USSR mentality’s armamentarium.

On the international scene he can merely carry on being obnoxious in his support of Syria and Iran. But he has less and less to offer them in terms of money and weapons. And all of this supposes  that  back home they are going to be still cheering him on as the shops empty to make the Russians even more nostalgic for the cold war days.

There is no doubt that Kerry must be working night and day to hammer something out and indeed he did. But that at the end of the day all that did was give Putin the illusion of respectability. Also one never knows how the cookie will crumble but if Jay H. Ell was a betting man he would not be backing Putin.