PUTIN PULLS OUT THE OLD USSR PLAYBOOK

As Jay H. Ell blogged a few weeks ago, “Putin - The Last Russian Tzar”, Putin’s move on Crimea operates from a different world view, namely it is based on the USSR playbooks dating from the mid forties. The "playbook" details the predictable scripted explanations that Moscow should spin in an event such as we are now witnessing in Crimea.

In initiating the second cold world war, Putin is now following the old USSR playbook. The playbook stipulates that Putin is to claim that he is merely an observer of the Crimeans exercising their inherent right to proclaim their own sovereignty. He is not, as the playbook spells out, really involved in the Crimean secession as the army in the streets has no Russian markings and they are really Ukrainian soldiers overseeing a peaceful transition and protecting Russians living in Crimea.

The scripted Crimean “referendum” organized in less than a week, with an over 80% voter turnout with a 97% support to join Russia, was an event ludicrous on its face even by USSR playbook standards. This especially so that in a Gallop Poll, conducted in May 2013, only 23% of Crimeans said they wanted to be part of Russia. 

The Putin playbook had earlier indicated that he should warn Ukraine that should they move towards NATO and away from Russia there would be dire consequences and apparently the Crimean people proved him right. The script in the playbook continues to be played out in all solemnity. Putin has recognized the independent country of Crimea. The playbook instructs Putin to then support a Crimean request to be part of Russia which he has now done in record time. Finally, the script says that Putin must say he has no more territorial ambitions, which he has said.  

Amen brother.

         PUTIN'S ASSUMPTIONS

The assumption of Putin is that the great USA  and NATO cannot and or will not send in the cavalry. He reckons that he will expose America as being impotent. Just look at Iraq, Afghanistan and more recently Syria - this is a different world, after all, than post World War 11. What Putin fails to realize is that the world has changed more for Russia, aka the USSR, than NATO aka the USA. For starters NATO, the USSR’s adversary, is very much intact in the wake of the disintegration of the USSR. In fact this is what this is all about as several of the members of former USSR have defected to NATO and Ukraine going that way would have been the giddy limit. So this move is Putin’s major counter. Jay H. Ell believes at the end of the day it is not going to go very far.

COMMUNICATION IN THE TWENTIETH AND TWENTY FIRST CENTURY

For starters no body believes the scripts in these play - books anymore. With all the communication going on in the internet, social media as well as the blogosphere, Tass is no longer the only source of information. To digest what Russia got away over the last century is, in retrospect, mind boggling. Ostensibly carrying out the precepts of egalitarianism of the Marxist philosophy they instituted a fascist totalitarian state. With nothing to counter their claims of the success of socialism, collectivism and industrialization, the reality of purges, famine,10 million either dying or executed and millions deported, was never in the world consciousness and the Russian utopia was the accepted narrative especially by the faithful. 

Stalin shared in the spoils of the second world war. In addition a war of words continued and while the USSR “prospered” a propaganda war was waged against the “imperialistic, fascist warmongers”. This narrative was not only bought by several countries but by well intentioned individuals from the West who believed it all. Strong Communist Parties were formed in Western States to promote the “equality” and “growth” that was the "hallmark" of the USSR. Then as we know it all collapsed like a pack of cards in the early 90’s. 

Ironically, Communists outside of the USSR were involved in championing the cause of the discriminated and the disadvantaged in their own countries. Unlike Mandela himself, several of his inner support group in South Africa were members of the Communist Party. Their problem was that in addition to their championing of the oppressed they stuck to the fictitious scripts emerging from the USSR playbook giving the latter their support and holding them up as the shining utopian example. Even the Russian suppression of the Hungarian revolt hardly shook the Marxist faithful.

........Then there was the story where a Russian and a UK worker were conversing about their work conditions in Hyde Park. The Russian details his low work pay, no trade unions, poor living conditions etc to which the Cockney worker replies, “Gore blimme if that happened here the Commies would go mad.” ...........

So it needs total news blockades and secrecy to enact these fictitious yet plausible scripts of the playbooks and these news blackouts no longer exist.

COLD WAR WAS ABOUT CREATING POWER BLOCKS.

A large chunk of Cold War activity was taken up by trying to win the support of the “unaligned”  countries. Fortunes were spent and wars were fought trying to align countries in South East Asia, South America , the Middle East and Africa to one or other side. Neither super power distinguished themselves in this battle. Wars were fought such as those in Korea and Vietnam, dictators were propped up and rebels supported to overthrow regimes. Aid was poured into countries that often wound up in the leaders’ foreign bank accounts.

Each side used allies to bolster their military capabilities. The most famous example of the latter was the Cuban missile crises when the world stood on the brink of a nuclear conflict. Surrogate wars were the order of the day as Cuba sent soldiers to back up the Angolan regime as the USA backed the apartheid South African troops to support the Angolan rebels. Another example of the cynicism was the USSR’s switched support from the socialistic, collective farming Israel to the Arab cause because of the number of countries involved not to mention the oil. The Iran Contra deal where weapons were sold to Iran, via Israel, so that the American administration could back the Nicaraguan rebels dripped with hypocrisy and deceit. (Prior to the recent Russian moves the fiction of weapons of mass destruction to invade Iraq by NATO leaders Bush and Blair has got to rank up there with the worst deceptions).

However, the machinations from both sides had their desired effect as various countries lined up on the side of one or other power block. Some countries were permanently for "sale" as they created the group of non aligned nations.

The conflict was ostensibly about ideology. The USSR still had their playbook that they stuck to and so did NATO stick to theirs. But in fairness to the latter their’s was far more open to scrutiny. 

Up till the day the charade ended and the USSR Emperor was found to have no clothes both sides carried on with their playbooks  The same playbook that Putin has just dusted off and put back into use.

RUSSIA NO LONGER IS A WORLD SUPER POWER 

In terms of rebuilding its empire Russia is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. There is no way they are going to win back Eastern Europe. Even Putin cannot be seriously contemplating Sudeitenlands outside the immediate Russian bloc.  Georgia, Chechnya and even Ukraine and Muldovia is one thing but Poland and Hungary, for example, another. This let alone getting near the old unaligned nations. 

The most recent Security Council resolution was the most stark evidence of where Russia stands in the world of nations today. The Security Council voted 13 - 1 with one abstention to affirm the integrity of Ukraine’s borders. Russia was the veto vote against and China it’s soulmate the abstention. China is pretty sensitive about border integrity and would certainly not accept a Hong Kong referendum to secede. China is also finding it more and more embarrassing to be lumped with Russia. Even in the height of Communism's hey day there was never much love between the two. 

Even more revealing was the votes of countries that might have formerly fallen into the unaligned category. Three of those voting against Russia were from Africa - Chad, Nigeria and Rwanda, two from South America - Chile and Argentina and another three of the 10 non permanent members of the Council - Jordan, Lithuania and The Republic of Korea, all voted against Russia. The only two votes that the UK, USA and France would not have had to “work” on in the good old days would have been Australia and Luxembourg. 

So Russia is definitely considered a rogue nation not a potential super power. 

THE RUSSIAN REALITY AFTER CRIMEA

There is plenty of bravado being displayed by Putin and his colleagues. Obama is being made to be look puny as the latter starts with sanctions on the involved Russians and Ukranians who have assets outside of the country. This will be followed by other sanctions as Europe and the USA turn on the screws. Obama has already on his list "key sectors of the Russian ecenomy". Merkel has unilaterally kicked Russia out of the G-8 group of industrial nations. The European Union are meeting to add sanctions and public opinion seems incensed at Russia's behavior.

There is no industrial infrastructure in Russia as 70% of its economy comes from energy. Now that energy is controlled by a number of plutocrats that have been given concessions by Putin. The plutocrats assets Obama has the potential to freeze. Other moves being contemplated by the USA government include giving Ukraine some military hardware and getting oil to Europe to ween them off dependence on Russia. So Russia is very vulnerable to sanctions that will hit its energy income.

The bottom line is the Russian reality and status has taken a big hit as a result of Putin’s foolhardy move. For starters the Russian stock market has dropped 15% wiping out nearly a 100 billion dollars. The last thing his fragile economy needs. The Russian economy is not vast. It is said to be no bigger than the Italian economy.

Also out there are a host of Ukranian military who have sworn not to give up Crimea without a fight. There are going to be plenty of deaths before this is over as the Russian troops mass on the border of Eastern Ukraine. 

Then Putin’s image as an honest broker has taken a dive. He guaranteed with the USA and the UK in the early 1990’s that if Ukraine gave up their nuclear weaponry he would ensure their territorial integrity. 

So he has gained control of a port that he would never have lost access to at a great cost. 

         THE END GAME       

What Putin’s end game is has to be a mystery. Things are what they are. There is no way that Russia can gain its old prominence. Their move is about as futile as the UK trying to win back its formal status of an Empire on which the sun did not set. If Jay H. Ell was Putin he would back off and start talking nicely to Obama, NATO and Ukraine. He has shown a tendency to back off on lesser issues such as releasing Pussy Riot and on his stance on gays when it might have affected the Sochi games, so who knows? Hopefully, he has learned that the old playbook is obsolete in this day and age. 

However, don't hold your breath, Putin followed the old playbook script to the last detail. The script calls for accusing the other side of what you have allegedly just done and act the victim.  

Putin has thus maintained it is the USA and Europe that have no respect for international law citing Kosovo. Using the occassion of the Crimean adventure Putin argued, "As NATO expanded it cheated again and again". So this is payback time for the West, particularly USA, as it was their fault that the USSR collapsed. In case anyone forgot, the old USSR is Putin's pedigree, he merely flipped sides when Gorbachev was being ousted.

With Putin you are dealing with someone, who according to Angela Merkel is not in touch with reality. Putin seems to place great stock on showing the USA that he can do what he likes. This is true, up to a point. He can, for example, instigate East Ukraine to follow the Crimean “example”. He can even try to “rescue” the Russians in Poland and on and on. So while at the end of the day Putin is doomed to failure he can cause a lot of chaos in the process. Once again history is in the hands of an unpredictable sociopathic maniac.  Putin's meddling unhappily need not be confined to the former USSR as evidenced in Syria and Iran.