PUTIN - THE LAST RUSSIAN TZAR?

Vladimir Putin joins a long line of Russian dictatorial leaders that like “old man river just keep rolling along”.  The poor Russians they have not really got rid of the Tzars. From Stalin onwards it has been more of the same. Putin becomes more comprehensible when you consider where he came from. He was in the KGB for 16 years. After the axing of Gorbachev he joined Yeltsin’s government and within 4 years he was acting President in 1999. In 2000 he was elected President and remained such till 2008 as he could not continue due to term limits. In the interim, while his term limits were expiring, he retained control by coming Prime Minister. In 2012 he was once again elected for what Jay H. Ell reckons will be forever if Putin has any say in the matter.

2000 - 2008

For Putin’s first turn at bat he was a smashing success. The Russian economy improved but in effect was controlled by a group of oligarchs that Putin had given all the monopolies to and that are totally beholden to him. The moment one of them wanted to turn to matters political he was promptly locked up under trumped up charges and since then the oligarchs have limited their subversive activities to buying football teams such as Chelsea. One uncomfortable moment for Putin was the Chechnya invasion but somehow everyone bought into the fiction that they were nothing but a bunch of terrorists.

In his second term starting in 2004 the honeymoon was soon over and he cracked down on the Russian media. A journalist who exposed corruption was shot in her apartment and the authorities were widely believed to be involved. He invaded Georgia but again he received a pass because he claimed that the NATO member had been the aggressor. There was some opposition to him by liberals lead by the Russian world chess champion Gary Kasparov and even a march in protest, but c'est la vie it all came to nought.

To the world’s surprise and muddying the international diplomatic playbook was that Putin, from 2001 on, became dubbayu’s newest best friend. He became the first foreign visitor to the Bush compound in Kennebunkport Maine. Bush had looked into his eyes and said he was able to get a sense of Putin’s soul and that was that. Putin gave very little clue of his desire to be front and center of the world stage. Other than a token disapproval of his friend’s Iraqi adventure Putin just pottered around in his own backyard.

2012 - ?

After his 4 year breather as Prime Minister, where he shored up his political power, he returned to the world scene with a bang. Enough already playing second fiddle to the US and China - Russia was to become a world power. Furthermore he would brook no dissent within the country. He literally personally hosted the Sochi Olympic Games and served notice, with the costly show that far exceeded the tab for any previous Olympics, that Russia was in the big league. Anything China let alone America could do he could do better. It was a public relations coupe with NBC providing endless background stories about the grandeur of mother Russia.

However he lost plenty basking in the world’s spotlight. He had jailed a nonentity punk band, Pussy Riot, who sang songs about LBGT rights, feminism and that claimed Putin was a dictator. His autocratic decision created such an international storm that he had to release them. His attack on the LBGT, the motive of which was to solidify the support of the Russian Orthodox Church, boomeranged. On that too he backed down, sort of, by claiming that some of his best friends were gays as long as they left the children alone. Obama snubbed him by not only by not coming to the games but by sending an American delegation that was as representative of the LBGT movement as it was of America. No other Western leaders were in evidence either.

All this was just a backdrop to his major moves on the world scene. He was the only major supporter of Syria and Iran blocking, as far as possible, consolidated opposition against them. It is a mischaracterization to call him a supporter of these two rogue nations rather he was on the other side against the Western Powers. It was back to the good old days when it was East versus West. Two major gunslingers in the arena and Russia was one of them. 

On the strength of his shows of strength Forbes nominated him as the most powerful man in the world. George Bush the lesser said that it wasn’t that his original opinion of him was wrong, Putin had changed.

PUTIN  PUTS THE MAD MOVES ON UKRAINE

The West instead of being surprised by Putin’s newly found macho had forgotten where he had come from - he was a child of the old USSR who had conveniently changed to the winning side. He was a product of the Kremlin. He served nearly 20 years in the most feared instrument of the USSR, the KGB.

Putin with his actions on Georgia and Chechnya had already served notice that he was not going to tolerate any more gains by NATO. Ukraine going to NATO would be a bitter pill to swallow and there was no way this was going to happen especially with its key province Crimea and it’s strategic port. It is after all so so Russian, at least the Crimean part. (The total percentage of Russians in Ukraine is less than 20%). It was on the Eastern border of Russia and they were fellow Slavs……

Putin really couldn’t give a hoot as to how he was seen in the rest of the world. In fact this helps bolster his image of them and us. Two major forces in the world once more, Russia versus the rest. It was back to the good old days in more ways than one.

Putin started spinning the invasion of Ukraine ala Kruschev, Brezhnev and the rest - the Russians had not invaded Crimea these were local Ukrainian soldiers who were expressing their support for the ousted regime. Putin would do all that was necessary to protect all the Russians in Ukraine. It was the foreign influences that had caused the ousting of the pro Russian head of Ukraine - all so reminiscent of the days when they were the vanguard against the imperialistic fascist warmongers. Putin’s press conference revealed a man who reflected the paranoia, self righteousness and the anger of his mentors, the leaders of the USSR. “The American Technologists did their work well in the Ukraine And this isn’t the first time they have done this in Ukraine”, “Ukraine needs elections but you can’t have elections as they already have a President”, were examples of the gibberish spouted by Putin. The New Republic quotes Gleb Pavlovsky a former advisor to Putin stating that the latter has surrounded himself with yes men feeding him what he wants to hear. “They are beginning to believe their own propaganda”, Pavlovsky reported.

This all jived with Angela Merkel's, the West German Chancellor assessment that Putin was not in touch with reality and in another world. Indeed he is functioning in a post second world war Cold War paradigm. 

CAN PUTIN SUCCEED?

Russia is still a giant. It has an army of a million. It has nuclear weapons. It has vast energy supplies. It can easily win the Ukraine battle just by cutting off its energy. It can cut of energy to Europe who are dealing with a modern day maniac who is making everyone nervous. Jay H. Ell believes that Putin can and will win the Ukraine fight. At very least he will retain Crimea. He is de facto in control already. He will also use the referendum planned to “legitimize” the annexation.

The fear is that is this is another Hitler who says he has no other territorial ambitions and then proceeds to knock of one by one the old components of the USSR. The difference between him and Hitler and even Stalin as how does he knows when he has won? His objective is to be a major player with the USA and restore Russia to its old glory in a world that isn’t terribly much interested in this baloney. His fight is not with the USA it is with the modern day realities.

PUTIN WINS NOW WHAT?

Assuming the best possible scenario for Putin that, while no one believes that he is in Crimea to protect the Russians there and or to carry out their will, they let him take over Crimea. Russia is now part of the world. It is no longer behind an Iron Curtain and confidence in Russia as an investment country will go to zero. The first day after the “non Russians” took over Crimea the Russian stock market dropped 10%, over 60 billion dollars. That is more than the Sochi games cost. 

Obama now puts into effect the type of financial sanctions that have brought Iran to their knees. You can have all the money in the world but if you can’t use it, it is not much good. Obama’s first start is to hit the individuals involved. Also to support Ukraine with financial aid so that the Russian squeeze is neutralized. 

China, who is Russia’s silent ally on the world stage has close ties to the Ukraine. Big deals on grain and weapons are where it is at. Also China cannot really support invasions of any country, under any pretext, as they their good selves are very vulnerable to intervention. So China has not come out in support of their ostensible soul mates.

The few former USSR countries that have become part of a Russian Federation have not supported Russia’s move. They are hardly likely to do so as implicit in support of the “interference” is the green light to interfere with their own autonomy. Even Cuba has remained silent.

Within Russia itself in this day and age who gives a hoot about empires and power on the world stage. If push comes to shove Putin cannot create to much patriotic fervor about creating an empire, The Kasparov and the Pussy Riot people may be marginalized at the moment but they could become the nidus of real internal opposition. Putin cannot control the narrative in modern day social communication connections. He can control State TV but he cannot control the internet. Fools can now “Rush In” where angels formerly feared to tread. 

For the moment Putin has the upper hand. He is a great source of gas for Europe as well as the Ukraine. But with the USA becoming independent on energy more and more energy is available on the open market and it is just a question of time before Russia can no longer hold this threat over Europe. The whole exercise is counterproductive as who wants to do business with an unreliable psychopath.

So while the situation remains unstable for the moment in the long run it will quicken the demise of what one hopes will be the last Russian tzar.

And just to prove that there is not a monopoly on insanity, the Republicans are blaming Obama for Putin’s megalomania. Actually, Jay H. Ell believes it is Obamacare and not Obama that did it.