At the moment Obama and his Secretary of State, Kerry, are frenetically involved in two sets of negotiations. These involve the never ending Israeli - Palestinian dispute and the cessation of the nuclear ambitions of Iran.
Both Palestine and Iran do not recognize the State of Israel and are in a declared state of war against the Jewish Homeland. Iran, in fact, rarely lets a week go by without threatening Israel and they support their surrogate, the terrorist Palestinian organization, Hamas, in the fight against Israel. So common to both these negotiations is Israel and Iran.
The outcome of these negotiations is far from academic to Netanyahu’s Israel - it is seen as a matter of life and death. The fall out for Rouhani’s Iranian regime is also survival as they are being choked to death, economically, by sanctions, but at the same time don’t want to abandon their ambitions as being the Muslim force in the world and that needs nuclear weapons. Jay H. Ell blogged, inter alia, in November, and December, that the reason for Iran's commitment to the nuclear talks was Iran’s internal political and economic situations.
M. E. TALKS OBJECTIVELY HAVE NO HOPE
To the objective observer these talks can have no hope of success. The USA is the central to both of them and the USA Congress and public opinion are almost unanimously pro Israel and anti Iran. Congress is in no mood for concessions and rather than ease sanctions against Iran, to ratify the first phase of peace negotiations, Congress wishes to introduce further sanctions. Obama, using up political capitol, has threatened to veto any such Act. However, at the same time he reaffirmed America’s commitment to stand by its ally Israel. In both these, seemingly, contradictory actions he is in deadly earnest. He recognizes a slim opportunity for peace but there is no way he will sell Israel down the river.
Lest there be any doubt as to what the USA’s attitude is to Iran, the State Department refused permission to the Iranian ambassador to the UNO, for what was considered a routine request, to travel to Philadelphia. The official reason offered by the State Department was that, “Travel restrictions are placed on representatives of certain Governments”.
Netanyahu, not daunted by the thrashing of his party in the last election and being hobbled by a wobbly coalition believes that any discussion with Iran, let alone negotiations, is selling out Israel. His Cabinet members have also openly criticized the USA negotiations with Abbas, the Palestinian premier, in regard to a possible deal with Israel and characterized Kerry as “messianic” and out of touch with reality.
To add to this mix is that the USA cannot negotiate with a key player, Hamas, as they are regarded as a terrorist organization. Also both Hamas and Abbas keep up their daily invective against Israel and incite their populace, whether it be in the classrooms or in the community.
Finally, the conventional way to reassure the world that you have no nuclear ambitions is to destroy your nuclear war capabilities as South Africa did under de Klerk.
So this is the daunting situation Obama and Kerry are facing internally and externally in both sets of interconnected negotiations.
PALESTINIANS DIVIDED
Just in case the scenario wasn't convoluted enough, the Palestinians are split into two non co-operating territories - Gaza and the West Bank. The leadership of both divisions are at loggerheads. Gaza is the Iranian backed Hamas self governing entity claiming to be the true representatives of the Palestinian people and is openly opposed to Premier Abbas’s Fatah. The latter is the internationally recognized Palestinian National authority. Abbas is premier of the West Bank, most of which is still occupied by the Israelis. The whole world when discussing the Palestinian issue are in denial about this split. The UNO Assembly declared nationhood to Palestine at the behest of Abbas who is not really in control of the West Bank let alone the whole of Palestine.
The irresistible inference from all of the above is how on earth can anything positive result from these negotiations? This then begs the question as to why on earth Kerry is full time on the job going backwards and forwards in what, on the face of it, is an exercise in futility? There must be compelling reasons as to why he would carry on. Firstly, it is in all the parties interests that these conflicts are resolved. And secondly, notwithstanding the public grandstanding by all concerned, Kerry has to be getting some positive feedback and assurances to carry on. To quote Kerry, “We are not stupid”.
NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS AND MIDDLE EAST TALKS LINKED.
The next fact that one has to recognize is that the issues of nuclear weaponry and Palestinian statehood are interdependent and Netanyahu is the deal breaker. Netanyahu is hardly likely to accept any Iranian nuclear deal that still allows them to cheerfully support Hamas and supply the latter with arms and/or that still gives Iran the remotest possibility that they can produce a nuclear bomb. Jay H. Ell fears that there is a possibility that Netanyahu will go against all his own experts’ advice and bomb Iran. This has the danger of starting World War 111 as Russia and China are unashamed allies of Iran. They have only been embarrassed into being a part of the 6 nations negotiating with them because of Iran’s current untenable position. If Iran is attacked that will change the dynamic dramatically.
So logic dictates that the pivotal player in all of this is Israel’s Netanyahu. However, there is no use worrying about him if the other parties are not in line. So Kerry and the permanent security council five members plus Germany have to be working on a deal that is linked and out of the box so as to meet all sides needs as far as possible
WHAT IFS?
Let us assume for a moment that all these negotiations come to nought and look at some hypothetical scenarios.
Iran Intransigent.
For example, if talks fail because of Iran, sanctions will be toughened. This makes the internal Iranian situation worse. Any uprising in Iran will be brutally put down and Iran will muddle on.
Israel will have the restraints lifted from them and might invade Gaza as Netanyahu has hinted. The latter type of exercise has not solved anything in the past, whether in this hypothetical scenario Israel are provoked or not prior to their invasion. The world has lost interest as to who is the instigator in this ongoing saga. (Israel has lost the propaganda war). They just note that each incursion leaves the Palestinian territories in a shambles and that this embitters the Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire. All of this is recorded on the front pages of newspapers, across the world with Palestinians looking despondently at their trashed homes. (There is cursory acknowledgement of the deaths and destruction to Israeli citizens as the Israelis are said to be responsible for the impasse, because of their imperialistic behavior).
Israel, in this hypothetical scenario, may have solved its Iranian problems but the festering Palestinian issue remains.
Israel Intransigent
If Israel are deemed unreasonable in these negotiations there is a chance that Russia and China will start getting heavily involved with Iran commercially and even provide weaponry thus bailing them out. Israel need not even appear intransigent on Palestine, if the latter situation does not progress, whatever the cause, the call to boycott Israel economically and even take them to the World Court will gain more and more traction and international pressures will mount.
The world is getting exasperated with the Palestinian situation and simplistically believe that it is Israel’s to resolve. As a former Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Post, Hirsh Goodman, wrote in an op-ed piece in the New York Times it is the conduct of the current Israeli Government that helps support the fiction that Israel is an “apartheid state”. Recent repressive measures on groups within Israel, who monitor human rights and plead the cause of minority rights, help the protagonists who wish to tar Israel with the apartheid brush. In addition to that, Goodman maintains that while peace negotiations were going on, on January 10, Israel announced the building of 1400 more new homes in East Jerusalem and the West Bank which lends credence that they are acting in a provocative and imperialistic manner. All this in addition to the collateral damage an occupation and invasions engender.
This behavior provides ammunition to those who wish to smear Israel as a racist nation. Netanyahu may think that he has right and might on his side but the perception is that he is a bully. He has not mounted an effective counter propaganda offensive. Rather he complains that, “it is not fair”. But then what is?
Netanyahu's wish
The hoped for Netanyahu scenario, that the world will take on Iran and that they would finally realize that the issue is the Palestinian aggression and even inability to sort themselves out, is not going to happen. Also it should be becoming more and more evident to him that force to settle the Palestinian problem is not going to help anyone.
WHAT COULD A DEAL LOOK LIKE?
First and foremost the objectives of the deal(s) have to be made clear;
*Iran cannot be allowed to become a nuclear weapon power:
* The two Palestinian divisions have to negotiate as one:
*There must be a two state equitable solution:
*Israel must be reassured as to its security with tangible arrangements:
*Iran cannot be made to look like idiots to their Muslim brethren
*Reparations as there can be no repatriations and a viable Israeli State:
*Nobody is going to get exactly what they want and the stakes are high:
*All sides need to cool the rhetoric and Peres has tried to lead. Rhouhani too has made gestures such as condemning the holocaust and funding the Jewish Hospital in Teheran:
If as a result of this diplomacy Kerry can get Rouhani and Abbas to the table accepting the above principles, it will be up to Netanyahu.
THE CHANCES
Ostensibly, Iran is prepared not to become a nuclear weapon power and they state the demands made on them are not made on any other country who might have the potential to create nuclear weapons. Well, as Fareed Zakari has written in a Washington Post op-ed piece -he has interviewed Rouhani - the Iranians would allow unprecedented supervision and continued inspection of all their facilities. As Jay H. Ell blogged earlier if Iran try and play games on this issue they are toast because not only will they have “tricked” the West they will have “tricked” Russia and China putting them in an untenable situation to support them.
There has to be an acceptable way to both sides that supervision of the nuclear sites can take place. All the Israeli intelligence points to the fact that Iran are incapable to deliver a nuclear attack and it would take time to do it. Remember too that honor plays a big role in the Middle East so it all needs to be framed in a manner that does not appear to impinge on Iran’s sovereignty.
If Iran, as part of the deal can be persuaded to stop arming Hamas then the latter would cease to be a major force. Such a concession should allow the Israelis to concede that the protective shield to ensure the peace can be undertaken by an international consortium of military. Also the USA has gone a long way in shoring up Israeli’s defenses.
With regard to a land deal so many scenarios have been painted with land swops and the like that one has to believe that this hurdle could be overcome if the others issues are settled.
GOOD FAITH
It requires good faith from all sides. Israel can maintain that they have been down this road again and again and have got nowhere. In answer to that is that they have not got nowhere. Egypt and Jordan are currently staunch allies for their right to existence and even Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries, antipathetic to Iran, seem sympathetic to their plight. As far as the previous efforts are concerned that was then and this is now. Sixty years of the Palestinians living in squalid refugee camps, whoever has allowed this to happen, has once again captured the world’s sympathy.
UPSIDE OF NETANYAHU SETTLING
The world mindset is that Israel can settle this and they are just being unreasonable. While a good deal of the criticism of Israel is bound up with anti semitism there are many other critics, including almost half the Israelis, that are not anti semites. (Blog: The New Anti - Semitism in Europe and the boycott of Israeli Universities, 1/3/14).
There is no merit in creating another Masada or taking on the Romans, as the divided Jews did, leading to the smashing of the Second Temple and a dispersion for 2,000 years. Bearing in mind the persecution of Jews there should be some empathy with those who have become victims as a result of the nationhood of Israel, and have been cynically used, by Israel's opponents, as a political football ever since. It is time to act within the ethics and morality of the religion and belief system that gave the Jews the ability to survive for 5,000 years, - “Do not oppress a stranger: you yourself know how it feels to be a stranger, because you too were strangers in Egypt." ( Exodus).
If Netanyahu complains that a higher benchmark of conduct is expected from him, remember that he has argued that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. He cannot have it both ways - claim to have the highest standards and then, in negotiating, want to sink to the lower ones of his enemies. History is dominated by individuals - does Netanyahu want to go down as yet another hack or has he the guts to lead and realize and cope with the strife that it might lead to in Israel?
Why does Netanyahu lay himself open to the sideswipe of having a double standard, which is the same critique he has of world opinion?
Every great Israeli leader in modern history, across the political spectrum from Ben Gurion to Begin to, Rabin, Peres and Barak have risked, some with success and others with betrayal. Even the hardest liner of them all, Sharon, before cruelly being struck down, was ready to take the plunge. If as a result of these talks Kerry can get Rouhani and Abbas to the table accepting the above principles, it will be up to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu should seize the moment and who knows he may take Rouhani with him. History is really unfolded by connecting the dots from one great leader to another. Netanyahu must show statesmanship and stop wailing that he is a victim. He has to throw off the shackles of his past thinking. The fight is over, Israel has been established and the objective is now is to thrive in a hostile, different and complex world. Remember, too, he has the USA running cover for him or does he really believe that Obama wants Iran to have the bomb?
ISRAELI SUCCESS
Maybe if a statesmanlike Netanyahu concludes a deal, the unbiased may begin to realize what a remarkable success Israel has been in setting up a thriving democracy with people from all cultures, including over a million Arabs, under the most difficult of circumstances.
Maybe then some of those shouting the loudest at Israel, which is as legally constituted State as any in the world, let alone the Middle East, will reflect on the genesis of their disproportionate anger.
Maybe, too, they will just listen to the Sudan representative, Simon Deng, speaking at the annual UNO Durban Conference on The Perils of Global Intolerance. He stated that 82% of the General Assembly's Emergency Motions have been to condemn Israel. In so doing they have muffled incidences of real genocide such is happening in Sudan, where the Muslim Arabs have been responsible for the murder of 4 million African Muslims and Christians and other unspeakable atrocities. The media is filled with Israel's"atrocities" against the Palestinians but do they and UNO condemn the Arab racism against the blacks, he enquired. Also Israeli humanitarian efforts throughout the world are ignored, he maintained.
There apparently is no monopoly on double standards.
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