OBAMA AND THE LYNCH MOB

Rush Limbaugh, the unelected megalomaniacal spiritual leader of the Republican Party, has been the  ring leader of continuing personal attacks on a President, the intensity of which are unprecedented in living memory. Limbaugh recently griped that, (he supposed), you could not impeach a black President. His venting came amidst a crescendo of a vitriolic barrage on Obama. The rhetoric is reaching such a fever pitch that a Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in Florida stated that Obama should be hanged as execution was the appropriate punishment  for traitors. While the latter did not achieve as much coverage as Ted Nugent a rock star icon, who often appears at Republican rallies, when he called Obama a “subhuman mongrel”. This comes in the wake of ongoing offensive abuse from Nugent, who inter alia has tabbed the President, “.. as a piece of shit and I told him to suck on my machine gun”.

Even Nugent’s bile was superseded in coverage by Fox’s Bill O’ Reilly’s offensive and disrespectful interview with the Commander in Chief before the Super Bowl which attracts a near 100,000,000 audience. In your face from the word go O’ Reilly spewed the Republican Party talking points at the President, often interrupting him and talking over his answers. O’Reilly all but told Obama that he wouldn’t have attained his status without affirmative action. Apparently anything goes except respect for the Office and common decency.

ATTACKING OBAMA PERSONALLY - THE CENTRAL  REPUBLICAN POLICY

Ranting against the persona of Obama has been a feature of the Republican arsenal even before he was the Democratic nominee. It was thus not surprising that, in this milieu, he became the first Presidential Primary candidate to have serious threats of assassination against him and thus need security detail that early in the electoral process.

One issue after another was and still is used to query his validity as an American. A centerpiece of the earlier attacks was the denial that he was an American - literally and figuratively. Large groups, including the Tea Party, authoritatively claimed that Obama had not been born in America. This fanciful smear continued for several years and the leader in this endeavor was  Donald Trump, the most narcissistic of the Republican megalomaniacal, unelected leaders. He claimed to have investigators that had uncovered the truth. All of this proved to be a lie and Trump did not even have the insight to be embarrassed after being publicly exposed as a liar. Rather when he revealed that he had no evidence he stated he had done the country a service by focussing on this issue.

This drama was accompanied by a cacophony of smears as to his heritage which was variously attributed to Muslim, Kenyan, East Asian - all with socialist, and or terrorist connections. The birther issue has been dropped as a major Republican plank although, when questioned on the matter certain standard bearers of the right will say that the doubt still exists and mumble about forgeries and the like.

The Republicans since 2010 when the Democrats lost the House of Representatives have again, unashamedly proved to be the most uncooperative political party ever and stated unequivocally that their major policy objective was to see that Obama had one term.  This failed so full steam the attack has been on Obamacare in a manner that can only be described as obsessional. Obamacare became the political agenda of the Republicans, only being punctuated by ersatz issues such as Benghazi, the IRS, the Obamacare website and the NSA but otherwise it was Obamacare, Obamacare and Obamacare.

So the Republicans in part to cover their own irreconcilable internal differences, in part as a smoke screen to hide their failure to produce any coherent political agenda but mainly out of their hatred for Obama, continue to keep Obama in their gun sights.

BACK TO THE PRESENT. 

Obamacare, which has been the point of convergence of all Republican invective for the past three years, is slowly but surely fading into the background. The reason for this is that, notwithstanding the initial glitch of the Website there are 5,000,000 new enrollees for Medicaid and between 5 to 6 million are forecast to have enrolled in the Affordable Health Care program by the end of March. So in spite of all the scare tactics at worst there will be at least 13,000,000 of the 40,000,000 uninsured receiving health care instead of the hoped for 15,000,000. This with 25 of the 50 States boycotting the initiative and leaving their citizens  eligible for Obamacare to muddle through and those that would now qualify for Medicaid to remain without it.

So Obamacare should no longer be the center of the Republican thrust and as they have no policy initiatives - it is carry on - defile Obama. This of course is coupled with no cooperation or compromise ever with any of his legislative agenda.

IMPEACHMENT

Now the discussion of impeachment of Obama has moved to center stage.  Everything and anything is used as a rationalization for this action. Congressman Bob Barr who was the first to file impeachment charges against Bill Clinton is once again standing for Congress. Apparently he has forgotten how this all came back to bite him. Not only is Clinton the most popular political figure at present Barr was one of the many that was exposed for hypocrisy for the Clinton episode.  The editor of The Hustler magazine offered money for all those who could expose the accusers of the then President. Barr was one many of the hypocrites bared naked. Barr’s second wife maintained that he had refused to answer whether he had committed adultery with a women who became his third wife and some of his other embarrassing behaviors came to the fore.

Barr is one of many accusing the President of “High Crimes and Misdemeanors" . Several sitting Congressmen including Randy Weber, Tray Redel, Bill Flores, and Blake Farenthold of Texas, Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, Duncan Hunter of California, Steve King of Iowa, Trent Franks of Arizona, Doug Collins of Georgia, Kerry Bentovolio of Michigan, Michelle Bachmann and Paul Labrador of Utah are but a few of the hounds baying. Additional Republican Congressmen of the Judiciary House Committee that would cheerfully impeach Obama include Chaffetz, Gomez and Issa. Congressman Steve Stockton who walked out of the State of the Union address has already distributed articles of impeachment amongst his colleagues.

On December 13, 2013, according to a report by Dana Milbank of the Washington Post, the Republicans in the House of Judiciary Committee met to consider the impeachment of Barack Hussein Obama. They concluded that the President had failed his Constitutional Duty to faithfully execute the laws. 

The Senate Republicans are not much better with Mike Lee, Tom Cruz, Tom Coburn, Tim Scott, and Mark Rubrio adding to the mix. Rand Paul is ambivalent as he is making a play to become the “middle of the road” candidate now that Christie is stuck on the bridge. 

The Tea Party, who are the tail that is wagging the Republican dog, are circulating petitions for Obama’s impeachment. 

So while all these might be considered to be the lunatic fringe, including Presidential candidates, the elected Republican leadership have done little to reassure the electorate that that is who they are. On the contrary, Boehner and Cantor of the House have said that the President is untrustworthy and one cannot interact with him. Mitch McConnell of the Senate believes that the President is beyond dealing with. Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican Party is the only voice that is cautioning premature calling for impeachment. However, Priebus has to begin to realize that the lunatic fringe is the Republican Party.

REPUBLICAN DESPERATION THUS INCLUDES IMPEACHMENT

The above commentary is reflective of the mess the Republicans are in. No serious constitutional scholar believes that they are truly grounds to impeach Obama. In all the phony issues suggested he has had no direct control and they just occurred while he was President. However, impeachment is not necessarily a judicial process it is a political one.  When Tom Cruz was asked what was needed to impeach Obama he shot back, “218 votes”.  The Republicans are desperate and are involved in a last ditch struggle against history. At present they are using as yet untold sums of money, constituency gerrymandering and voter suppression to save their bacon. Now they are adding one more string to their bow - impeachment of America’s first pigmented President. It would backfire even more so than Bill Clinton’s. 

Don’t the GOP get it? What the electorate wants is attention to their problems not endless stonewalling and grotesque sideshows.

By the way, what Rush Limbaugh really meant when he said that one couldn’t impeach a black President is that the only possible reason one is contemplating impeaching Obama is because he is black. One gets the feeling that Limbaugh is yearning for the good old days, really not so long ago, where there would have been other solutions for uppity people like Obama.

THE MONEYED IN POLITICS - THE SIXTH ESTATE AND THEIR LOBBYISTS

Money plays a role in all politics everywhere but no more than in America. In the US money is central to who is elected on every governmental level and then money is used, in wallops, to dictate what those that have been elected will "decide". 

LOBBYING

The American legislature is institutionally and unashamedly influenced by money. These transactions are effected via lobbyists, who who are employees of Lobby or Legal firms. The lobbyists directly approach staff members and Congressmen. These lobbyists are the go betweens big business and interest groups and the legislature. While lobbying is not unique to the USA it is a major industry and the principal movers and shakers behind this activity are the business - financial complex. The latter can be considered to coin a new term, The Sixth Estate. (The media are considered the Fourth Estate because of their influence in the political process and the Fifth Estate are said to be all other non governmental groups, influencing society including the newest most influential modality, the internet in the form of tweeters, bloggers, the u tubers and face bookers and the like). This Sixth Estate, currently is by far the most influential group in enacting legislation in the US.  

There has never has been a limit to the money spent on lobbying and this vocation has totally overwhelmed the legislative process. Although there are ostensibly rules and regulations, proven violations are far and few between and, anything goes. There are said to be over 12,000 registered lobbyists in Washington. That conservative estimate would mean for every Legislator there are over 20 lobbyists. A study conducted by Raquel Alexander of Washington and Lee University, in 2009, showed that lobbying was highly lucrative and gave a return to the investor of 22,000 percent. There are obvious lobby groups in the public eye such as the National Rifle Association that have been successful at preventing any meaningful gun control. If one takes the recent Affordable Care Act it is open secret that without the support of the Medical Insurance Companies, the Hospital Group and the American Medical Association it would have not happened. The tobacco lobby finally succumbed after successfully, for fifty years, keeping the government out of the science that had proved that tobacco was a killer. Their successful survival for 50 years was brokered by the lobbyists.

Eisenhower in his farewell speech, in 1961, predicted that the military - industrial complex would have undue influence in the United States and so it did. He warned that "… the councils of government must guard against unwarranted influence … by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist….. this combination, (military and industry), endanger our liberties and democratic process…”.

Eisenhower did not even thinly disguise how money can influence military policy. The money comes in forms of political contributions and the like and the influence was brokered by the lobbyists. All this raises the questions of the endless wars that America have been involved for the past 60 years. Several of them futile and “unwinnable” costing endless blood and treasure but making untold fortunes for the “industrial” component of the complex. (The only viable conspiracy theory remaining in the Kennedy assassination is that he was killed because he was about to pull out of the Vietnam war. Historians are awaiting the release of, to date of still classified CIA documents).

Since Eisenhower’s time there have been complexes on everything and anything. Today the business - financial complex, The Sixth Estate, reigns supreme and their pathway to success is brokered by the lobbyists.

In the USA there are also interest groups that raise sums of money like the Anti -  Abortion Groups and The Women Rights groups who also influence  legislators but that is not the group that Jay H Ell is focussing on at the moment.

PASSAGE OF MEDICARE PART D TELLS IT ALL

The Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement Act of 2003, also known as Medicare Part D is illustrative of the power of The Sixth Estate. The Bill would cover most of the cost for prescription drugs for the elderly. The bill was so controversial that the publicity of its passage resulted in an expose of how the lobbyists of the Sixth Estate work in Congress. Sixty Minutes produced a feature that laid bare the process that resulted in the passage of Medicare Part D.

The central argument surrounding the Medicare Part D legislation was whether or not the cost of the newly available medicines, to the elderly, would be controlled by the Government or would Congress allow the Pharmaceutical Companies, themselves, to set the prices. The Republicans in Congress gave the Pharmaceutical Companies the prerogative. This was in contrast to similar Government programs such as  Medicaid and the Veteran Administration Medical Program where the government controls the cost of pharmaceuticals. The rationale for the Republican decision was that the pharmaceutical industry would compete among each other and bring down the cost of medicines.

Needless to say the Pharmaceutical Industry lobby played the central role in this outcome. In the words of Republican Congressman Walter, “The Pharmaceutical Lobby wrote the Bill, It was a 1,000 pages long and it was presented to Congress at 3.00am in the morning to vote on.” He maintained that it was the ugliest night he had experienced in his 22 years in politics. Tom De Lay, the Republican Chief Whip “bribed” and “twisted arms” to the extent that he and a number of Republicans were brought before the ethics committee for their behavior. The Pharmaceutical Companies were said to have paid the lobbyists $250,000,000 for their work. The cost of the Prescription Program was estimated at 400 billion dollars.( Interestingly several of those Republicans who voted for the Bill did not demand, as they do today, that spending cuts be made to offset “entitlement" costs). It was estimated that if the Medicaid formula would have been used by the government then a $133 billion per year would have been saved. That represents an additional profit to the Pharmaceutical companies in the first year of over 532% on money spent. In addition the costs of Brand name drugs have been raised and not lowered following the implementation of the Act.

Sixty Minutes showed the “rewards" of all those involved in the decision making process that put this crucial clause in the Bill. All of them, Congressmen and their staffers, either obtained very high paying jobs in the pharmaceutical industry or  lobbying firms related to the industry. The  Congressman Chairman of the House Committee, that this Bill officially emerged from, was said to be rewarded with a million dollar a year employment contract. Also Congress allowed the Medicare Administrator a waver to negotiate with various companies for a job while all this process was going on. Finally, the Department of Health and Human Services used nearly 10 million dollars of taxpayer money to justify the merits of the program as it was passed.

CBS’s Steve Kroft concluded the Sixty Minutes segment by saying the high cost of drugs in America is due to the Pharmaceutical lobby.

HOW LOBBYING WORKS.

Jack Abramhoff, a convicted lobbyist, upon release from prison wrote a book entitled, “Capitol Punishment: The Hard Truth About Corruption from America’s Most Notorious Lobbyist”. It was also made into a movie entitled Casino Jack. While Abramhoff may be the most notorious lobbyist he still is small time in terms of the big leagues, only dealing in millions and occasionally 10’s of millions and not in 100's of millions and billions. However he does provide insight into how it all works. Free trips, expensive gifts, sport skyboxes, free restaurant with liquor, free services, campaign contributions, and anything else in what amount to out and out bribes. He specialized in getting Indian tribes Casino licenses. He was heavily involved with Tom De Lay in this and other projects. Subsequently 21 others were also convicted as a result of Abramhoff schemes including one Republican Congressman and staffers from Congress and even the White House. What is interesting about Abramhoff is that he acknowledges he was just a part of it - “ I was involved in a system of bribery - legalized bribery for the most part that still exists today”. So in the grand scheme of things Abramhoff was small fry and the real stuff, “still exists today”.

The only way that it can stop is for Congress itself to legislate as to what represents “business as usual” and what is ultimately regarded as criminal. Abramhoff and his motley crew was an outstanding exception in being prosecuted. If it is legitimate for the Lobbyists to write the legislation where do you draw the line? And if this is going on on the surface only the Good Lord knows what is going on behind the scenes including donations to campaign funds - where so many "expenditures" of the candidate are legitimate.

COMBINED IMPACT OF THE LOBBYING GROUPS ON COSTS AND FINANCIAL MATTERS.

To get some idea of the declared amount of money spent on lobbying in the past few years the Center for Responsive Politics publishes figures on its website OpenSecrets.org. For the past five years it has been averaging three and a half billion dollars a year. Of the sectors involved Health, Finance, Communication and Miscellaneous Business are up there were about $350 million each. A loose interpretation of all the money spent is that it all comes from the business- finance complex - The Sixth Estate. There is about a $100 million to single issue and Ideology groups but many of those are really protecting the business interests. For example, Grover Norquist’s quaintly named “America’s For Tax  Reform” is merely seeing to that the fat cats don’t pay more tax.

As matters stand at the moment the Republican Party as a whole are the standard bearers of the agenda of the business - finance complex.

This is evidenced by their support of the following :The richest people in America pay less taxes than the lower middle class. Corporations are able to keep money oversea without paying taxes on it. There are so many deductions allowed to business and finance that it is a miracle they end up paying anything. Investing in tax free havens for corporations and individuals is legal and no legislation has been introduced to change this. The fight too is against regulation or control of business practices because that cost businesses money and hinders progress. (It also results in economy meltdowns as witnessed in the recent mortgage crises where unashamed greed rendered millions without homes while the perpetrators  were bailed out and their leaders instead of going to jail received obscene sums of money). The Republicans are against minimum wage for the same reason.

In fact the business - finance lobbyists, their clients The Sixth Estate and the Republican agenda are in sync.

THE MONEY IN ELECTING THE DECISION MAKERS.

Jay H Ell remembers being struck by a passage in the late Paul Simon’s autobiography as to why this highly respected Senator from Illinois had decided to leave politics after only two terms in the Senate. It was about money. As it was, of the 100 Senators, he was one of only two that had been elected with less money in his campaign than the loser. Besides the thought of having to solicit contributions he reflected on how, he had late at night responded to a long list of people he had to return calls too. He randomly selected a few. The next morning he looked at the list and whom he had chosen. He saw that he had unconsciously selected former donors to his campaigns. He reflected that if that was what he was doing instinctively it was time to quit.

To a lesser or greater extent there always been a wail about rich candidates using their own wealth pitting themselves against the “peoples” candidate. This became more evident when giants amassed unbelievable sums of money. Nelson Rockefeller in his successful gubernatorial run for New York in the mid sixties spent nearly $3.5 million dollars. An independent fortune for those days. However with todays oligarchs amassing untold fortunes a potential problem looms high.

The Koch brothers who have a combined fortune of over 65 billion dollars are organizing like crazy for the 2014 election. They have already amassed a half a billion dollars. Their money has already having a marked impact on Senate races. For example in North Carolina 3 million dollars in negative brainwashing adds have changed a “safe” Democratic seat to a current lead in the polls by the Republicans. This is said to be the situation in at least 5 seats. In this early stage the Republicans are outspending the Democrats ten to one,

As seen even with all that lobbying money there is still opposition. So see to it that there is nobody around to oppose anything!

IMPACT OF SUPREME COURT’S CITIZEN UNITED DECISION OF 2010

Besides the individual candidates collecting money from all sorts of contributors and the party itself collecting and assisting candidates, Political Action Committees, (PACS) are now able to collect unlimited sums of money in order to influence the election of a candidate or candidates. The Supreme Court in their landmark Citizen’s United decision by 5 votes to 4 opened the floodgates to unions, associations and corporations to collect and spend unlimited sums of money on candidates and political positions. This included State Elections where relatively little money could sway an election. This has been used particularly effectively by Conservative leaning PACS.

The immediate impact of Citizen’s United, according to an article by Andrew Mayersohn in the OpenSecrets website was that In the 2012 election triple the amount of money was spent by outside groups as compared to 2008. Liberal outside groups were largely outspent by conservative groups. Although Karl Rove of the American Crossroads PAC was panned for his backing so many losers he is still raising large sums of money which he will spend more "judiciously" this time. The 2012 Presidential election was considered to be a 2 billion affair and it is projected that the 2016 will be at least involve 3 billion..

Jay H. Ell believes that we are only seeing the beginnings of the impact of Corporate money in politics. Public companies have been a bit shy to publicly support these PACS but there is a mechanism whereby they can donate to certain PACS anonymously. Why would they hold back? They are some pretty rich people who are connected to corporations in America who know some other pretty rich connected people and they can now control the elected as easily as they control legislation. What is a billion here or a billion there when we are talking about a trillions in an economy?

Another Supreme Court decision is looming that Jay H Ell thinks that will go the same way as Citizen's United. It is McCutcheon versus the Federal Election Commission. The former is objecting to the limits that an individual can donate in any two year cycle. Currently it is a $123,000 in various chunks. The argument McCutcheon is using is the same that triumphed in the Citizen's United that money is akin to free speech and is protected under the Constitution. Surely what is good for Corporations, whom the Supreme Court ruled have the same legal status as people, must hold for real people. Then people like the Koch brothers won’t even have to bother to form PACS they could just contribute directly.

THE FUTURE.

So will the takeover of big money be complete? There are 85 people that have the same amount of money as 3 billion people on this planet and several of those are in America. The Corporations are all powerful anyway and are truly multinational and much of what they do lies outside of the purview of the American system.

There is no doubt that democracy, as understood today, as at risk. However, at the end of the day each individual can cast a vote should he or she overcome the attempts at voter suppression. The money may smear the opposition and put the chosen candidate and his or her policies in a good light before the electorate. However, belittling the poor and unemployed, continuing to call the illegal immigrants purveyors of drugs, ostracizing the LBGT community, having a paternalistic attitude to women’s reproductive rights, favoring corporations, not increasing the minimum wage and continuing to fight to prevent the uninsured to get health care will not get their votes.

The internet, as part of the fifth Estate represents a major challenge to what Jay H. Ell has labelled the Sixth Estate and as circumstances are at the moment all the money in the world will not stop Hilary who is perceived to be against this agenda - or at least as much as any politician can be. Her Presidential nomination campaign appears more like a movement than a political event. If she runs, and Jay H. Ell believes it is in her DNA and with all that is going on has no choice anyway. (No viable Democratic candidate is emerging out of deference to her.) Finally, it also needs remembering that Romney could not get elected on the Sixth Estate ticket in 2012 and the situation and demographics have worsened since then. There is however evidence that all this money is influencing public opinion. The Republican mantra  is that distributive economic justice is “Big Government ” and it is “Big Government” that is responsible for the economic plight. The Democrats and Obama are "Big Government" so vote them out!

But if it comes to money the sums needed are paltry to these billionaires, the Sixth Estate, to control the economic and social agendas of the most powerful nation in the world. 

America then truly will have the best Government money can buy.

NETANYAHU, DOUBLE STANDARDS AND THE MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATIONS

At the moment Obama and  his Secretary of State, Kerry, are frenetically involved in two sets of negotiations. These involve the never ending Israeli - Palestinian dispute and the cessation of the nuclear ambitions of Iran. 

Both Palestine and Iran do not recognize the State of Israel and are in a declared state of war against the Jewish Homeland. Iran, in fact, rarely lets a week go by without threatening Israel and they support their surrogate, the terrorist Palestinian organization, Hamas, in the fight against Israel. So common to both these negotiations is Israel and Iran.

The outcome of these negotiations is far from academic to Netanyahu’s Israel - it is seen as a matter of life and death. The fall out for Rouhani’s Iranian regime is also survival as they are being choked to death, economically, by sanctions, but at the same time don’t want to abandon their ambitions as being the Muslim force in the world and that needs nuclear weapons. Jay H. Ell blogged, inter alia, in November, and December, that the reason for Iran's commitment to the nuclear talks was Iran’s internal political and economic situations.

M. E. TALKS OBJECTIVELY HAVE NO HOPE

To the objective observer these talks can have no hope of success. The USA is the central to both of them and  the USA Congress and public opinion are almost unanimously pro Israel and anti Iran. Congress is in no mood for concessions and rather than ease sanctions against Iran, to ratify the first phase of peace negotiations, Congress wishes to introduce further sanctions. Obama, using up political capitol, has threatened to veto any such Act. However, at the same time he reaffirmed America’s commitment to stand by its ally Israel. In both these, seemingly, contradictory actions he is in deadly earnest. He recognizes a slim opportunity for peace but there is no way he will sell Israel down the river.  

Lest there be any doubt as to what the USA’s attitude is to Iran, the State Department refused permission to the Iranian ambassador to the UNO, for what was considered a routine request, to travel to Philadelphia. The official reason offered by the State Department was that, “Travel restrictions are placed on representatives of certain Governments”. 

Netanyahu, not daunted by the thrashing of his party in the last election and being hobbled by a wobbly coalition believes that any discussion with Iran, let alone negotiations, is selling out Israel. His Cabinet members have also openly criticized the USA negotiations with Abbas, the Palestinian premier, in regard to a possible deal with Israel and characterized Kerry as “messianic” and out of touch with reality.

To add to this mix is that the USA cannot negotiate with a key player, Hamas, as they are regarded as a terrorist organization. Also both Hamas and Abbas keep up their daily invective against Israel and incite their populace, whether it be in the classrooms or in the community.

Finally, the conventional way to reassure the world that you have no nuclear ambitions is to destroy your nuclear war capabilities as South Africa did under de Klerk.

So this is the daunting situation Obama and Kerry are facing internally and externally in both sets of interconnected negotiations.

PALESTINIANS DIVIDED

Just in case the scenario wasn't convoluted enough, the Palestinians are split into two non co-operating territories  - Gaza and the West Bank. The leadership of both divisions are at loggerheads. Gaza is the Iranian backed Hamas self governing entity claiming to be the true representatives of the Palestinian people and is openly opposed to Premier Abbas’s Fatah. The latter is the internationally recognized Palestinian National authority. Abbas is premier of the West Bank, most of which is still occupied by the Israelis. The whole world when discussing the Palestinian issue are in denial about this split. The UNO Assembly declared nationhood to Palestine at the behest of Abbas who is not really in control of the West Bank let alone the whole of Palestine. 

The irresistible inference from all of the above is how on earth can anything positive result from these negotiations? This then begs the question as to why on earth Kerry is full time on the job going backwards and forwards in what, on the face of it, is an exercise in futility? There must be compelling reasons as to why he would carry on. Firstly, it is in all the parties interests that these conflicts are resolved. And secondly, notwithstanding the public grandstanding by all concerned, Kerry has to be getting some positive feedback and assurances to carry on. To quote Kerry, “We are not stupid”.

NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS AND MIDDLE EAST TALKS LINKED.

The next fact that one has to recognize is that the issues of nuclear weaponry and Palestinian statehood are interdependent and Netanyahu is the deal breaker. Netanyahu is hardly likely to accept any Iranian nuclear deal that still allows them to cheerfully support Hamas and supply the latter with arms and/or that still gives Iran the remotest possibility that they can produce a nuclear bomb. Jay H. Ell fears that there is a possibility that Netanyahu will go against all his own experts’ advice and bomb Iran. This has the danger of starting World War 111 as Russia and China are unashamed allies of Iran. They have only been embarrassed into being a part of the 6 nations negotiating with them because of Iran’s current untenable position. If Iran is attacked that will change the dynamic dramatically.

 So logic dictates that the pivotal player in all of this is Israel’s Netanyahu. However, there is no use worrying about him if the other parties are not in line. So Kerry and the permanent security council five members plus Germany have to be working on a deal that is linked and out of the box so as to meet all sides needs as far as possible

WHAT IFS?

Let us assume for a moment that all these negotiations come to nought and look at some hypothetical scenarios.

  Iran Intransigent.

For example, if talks fail because of Iran, sanctions will be toughened. This makes the internal Iranian situation worse. Any uprising in Iran will be brutally put down and Iran will muddle on. 

Israel will have the restraints lifted from them and might invade Gaza as Netanyahu has hinted. The latter type of exercise has not solved anything in the past, whether in this hypothetical scenario Israel are provoked or not prior to their invasion. The world has lost interest as to who is the instigator in this ongoing saga. (Israel has lost the propaganda war). They just note that each incursion leaves the Palestinian territories in a shambles and that this embitters the Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.  All of this is recorded on the front pages of newspapers, across the world with Palestinians looking despondently at their trashed homes. (There is cursory acknowledgement of the deaths and destruction to Israeli citizens as the Israelis are said to be responsible for the impasse, because of their imperialistic behavior).

Israel, in this hypothetical scenario, may have solved its Iranian problems but the festering Palestinian issue remains.

Israel Intransigent

If Israel are deemed unreasonable in these negotiations there is a chance that Russia and China will start getting heavily involved with Iran commercially and even provide weaponry thus bailing them out. Israel need not even appear intransigent on Palestine, if the latter situation does not progress, whatever the cause, the call to boycott Israel economically and even take them to the World Court will gain more and more traction and international pressures will mount. 

The world is getting exasperated with the Palestinian situation and simplistically believe that it is Israel’s to resolve. As a former Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Post, Hirsh Goodman, wrote in an op-ed piece in the New York Times it is the conduct of the current Israeli Government that helps support the fiction that Israel is an “apartheid state”. Recent repressive measures on groups within Israel, who monitor human rights and plead the cause of minority rights, help the protagonists who wish to tar Israel with the apartheid brush. In addition to that, Goodman maintains that while peace negotiations were going on, on January 10, Israel announced the building of 1400 more new homes in East Jerusalem and the West Bank which lends credence that they are acting in a provocative and imperialistic manner. All this in addition to the collateral damage an occupation and invasions engender.

This behavior provides ammunition to those who wish to smear Israel as a racist nation. Netanyahu may think that he has right and might on his side but the perception is that he is a bully. He has not mounted an effective counter propaganda offensive. Rather he complains that, “it is not fair”. But then what is? 
                           
Netanyahu's wish

The hoped for Netanyahu scenario, that the world will take on Iran and that they would finally realize that the issue is the Palestinian aggression and even inability to sort themselves out, is not going to happen. Also it should be becoming more and more evident to him that force to settle the Palestinian problem is not going to help anyone.

WHAT COULD A DEAL LOOK LIKE?

First and foremost the objectives of the deal(s) have to be made clear;

*Iran cannot be allowed to become a nuclear weapon power:
* The two Palestinian divisions have to negotiate as one:
*There must be a two state equitable solution:

*Israel must be reassured as to its security with tangible arrangements:

*Iran cannot be made to look like idiots to their Muslim brethren

*Reparations as there can be no repatriations and a viable Israeli State:

*Nobody is going to get exactly what they want and the stakes are high:

*All sides need to cool the rhetoric and Peres has tried to lead.  Rhouhani too has made gestures such as condemning the holocaust and funding the Jewish Hospital in Teheran:  

If as a result of this diplomacy Kerry can get Rouhani and Abbas to the table accepting the above principles, it will be up to Netanyahu.

     THE CHANCES          

Ostensibly, Iran is prepared not to become a nuclear weapon power and they state the demands made on them are not made on any other country who might have the potential to create nuclear weapons. Well, as Fareed Zakari has written in a Washington Post op-ed piece -he has interviewed Rouhani - the Iranians would allow unprecedented supervision and continued inspection of all their facilities. As Jay H. Ell blogged earlier if Iran try and play games on this issue they are toast because not only will they have “tricked” the West they will have “tricked” Russia and China putting them in an untenable situation to support them.

There has to be an acceptable way to both sides that supervision of the nuclear sites can take place. All the Israeli intelligence points to the fact that Iran are incapable to deliver a nuclear attack and it would take time to do it. Remember too that honor plays a big role in the Middle East so it all needs to be framed in a manner that does not appear to impinge on Iran’s sovereignty.

If Iran, as part of the deal can be persuaded to stop arming Hamas then the latter would cease to be a major force. Such a concession should allow the Israelis to concede that the protective shield to ensure the peace can be undertaken by an international consortium of military. Also the USA has gone a long way in shoring up Israeli’s defenses. 

With regard to a land deal so many scenarios have been painted with land swops and the like that one has to believe that this hurdle could be overcome if the others issues are settled. 

GOOD FAITH

It requires good faith from all sides.  Israel can maintain that they have been down this road again and again and have got nowhere. In answer to that is that they have not got nowhere. Egypt and Jordan are currently staunch allies for their right to existence and even Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries, antipathetic to Iran, seem sympathetic to their plight. As far as the previous efforts are concerned that was then and this is now. Sixty years of the Palestinians living in squalid refugee camps, whoever has allowed this to happen, has once again captured the world’s sympathy. 

                            
UPSIDE OF NETANYAHU SETTLING

The world mindset is that Israel can settle this and they are just being unreasonable. While a good deal of the criticism of Israel is bound up with anti semitism there are many other critics, including almost half the Israelis, that are not anti semites.  (Blog: The New Anti - Semitism in Europe and the boycott of Israeli Universities, 1/3/14). 

There is no merit in creating another Masada or taking on the Romans, as the divided Jews did, leading to the smashing of the Second Temple and a dispersion for 2,000 years. Bearing in mind the persecution of Jews there should be some empathy with those who have become victims as a result of the nationhood of Israel, and have been cynically used, by Israel's opponents, as a political football ever since. It is time to act within the ethics and morality of the religion and belief system that gave the Jews the ability to survive for 5,000 years,  - “Do not oppress a stranger: you yourself know how it feels to be a stranger,  because you too were strangers in Egypt." ( Exodus). 

If Netanyahu complains that a higher benchmark of conduct is expected from him, remember that he has argued that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. He cannot have it both ways - claim to have the highest standards and then, in negotiating, want to sink to the lower ones of his enemies. History is dominated by individuals - does Netanyahu want to go down as yet another hack or has he the guts to lead and realize and cope with the strife that it might lead to  in Israel? 

Why does Netanyahu lay himself open to the sideswipe of having a double standard, which is the same critique he has of world opinion? 

Every great Israeli leader in modern history, across the political spectrum from Ben Gurion to Begin to, Rabin, Peres and Barak have risked, some with success and others with betrayal. Even the hardest liner of them all, Sharon, before cruelly being struck down, was ready to take the plunge. If as a result of these talks Kerry can get Rouhani and Abbas to the table accepting the above principles, it will be up to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu should seize the moment and who knows he may take Rouhani with him. History is really unfolded by connecting the dots from one great leader to another. Netanyahu must show statesmanship and stop wailing that he is a victim. He has to throw off the shackles of his past thinking. The fight is over, Israel has been established and the objective is now is to thrive in a hostile, different and complex world. Remember, too, he has the USA running cover for him or does he really believe that Obama wants Iran to have the bomb?                        

ISRAELI SUCCESS

Maybe if a statesmanlike Netanyahu concludes a deal, the unbiased may begin to realize what a remarkable success Israel has been in setting up a thriving democracy with people from all cultures, including over a million Arabs, under the most difficult of circumstances. 

Maybe then some of those shouting the loudest at Israel, which is as legally constituted State as any in the world, let alone the Middle East, will reflect on the genesis of their disproportionate anger.

  Maybe, too, they will just listen to the Sudan representative, Simon Deng, speaking at the annual UNO Durban Conference on The Perils of Global Intolerance. He stated that 82% of the General Assembly's Emergency Motions have been to condemn Israel. In so doing they have muffled incidences of real genocide such is happening in Sudan, where the Muslim Arabs have been responsible for the murder of 4 million African Muslims and Christians and other unspeakable atrocities. The media is filled with Israel's"atrocities" against the Palestinians but do they and UNO condemn the Arab racism against the blacks, he enquired. Also  Israeli humanitarian efforts throughout the world are ignored, he maintained. 

There apparently is no monopoly on double standards.

                   

                    

CHRISTIE IS THE BEST....

Chris Christie is good. In fact he is the best. However, we are talking about another era, not so long ago, when you could get away with anything and everything if you were politically skilled, intelligent, articulate, capable and glib. 

Christie carved an independent niche for himself, within the Republican Party, so that he could have the credentials to win a national election when every demographic in the book shows that this is well nigh impossible. He won the Governorship of New Jersey, a strongly Democratic State, with bipartisanship support. He attacked the Republican Congressional establishment who were, ostensibly, not providing his State with support for hurricane Sandy’s havoc, and then publicly embraced Obama in the process to the cheers of a fatigued electorate who were disinterested with the politics of polarization. 

Christie had a realistic chance of giving Hilary Clinton a go if he could get the Republican nomination. Christie had to believe that could happen because in spite of Tea Party involvement, at the end of the day, the Republican money would see to it that the nominee would be at least someone who had a ghost of a chance - hence John McCain and Mitt Romney.

THE FUTURE AIN’T WHAT IT USED TO ME

However, in this new era, with 24/7 news channels, traditional media and their web sites, libraries of video clips - not to mention the social media, it is so so difficult to spin a coherent story for any length of time. To keep control of all the moving parts as the revelations lead to other revelations is well nigh impossible. In this milieu it is hard to keep a secret. So let it be with Christie.

To add to Christie’s problems, is that whether he likes it or not, he is in the midst of criminal investigations. Now lawyers tell their clients to shut up, just say nothing on the principle that you can do your case(s) very little good but plenty of harm. However, Christie has a political agenda and he has to keep trying to frame the narrative. This in a situation where he has no control and is in effect responding to the world exploding around him.

CHRISTIE IS JUST WILD ABOUT WILDSTEIN

In the New Jersey’s initial news conference on January 9, he couldn’t remember when he last saw David Wildstein, the former Head of the New Jersey Port Authority. He belittled the agent who had set into motion the lane closures at the George Washington Bridge. They did go to school together but Christie had no idea what dear old David was doing while Christie was head of the Student Council and excelling at athletics.

 In no time this narrative began to unravel:

*Several newspaper photographs emerged with the smiling Governor and his errant Head of the Port Authority. Some during and round about the time of the lane closure.

*Wildstein was given his $150,000 a year job on the strength of his relationship with Christie. In fact the position that he assumed did not exist till he came along. There was no job description as to what the duties of this so called head of Port Authority position entailed and Wildstein’s resume hardly had the skill set to be the Head of the Port Authority, whatever that means. One of the staff of that illustrious Authority stated that the message was that Wildstein was the Governor’s friend and he needed to be given a job.

*Wildstein having been thrown under the bus by his “friend” when the lane closures went sour, was explicit that he was not going to take the fall for his classmate. In a series of document exposures and a letter from his lawyer he made it quite clear that the plan to effect the closures emanated from the inner sanctums of the Christie emporium and that Christie new all about it, at least from the moment it happened. In addition, Wildstein was being discriminated against in that the Port Authority was not going to pay his legal bills. Wildstein  was ready to “tell all” if he received immunity from prosecution.

*Christie responded by the ritual denials but rather fascinatingly provided as evidence of Wildstein’s instability what had happened at school when Wildstein was 16.  Christie then outlined the former Head of the Port Authority’s undistinguished career to date. All this undermining his initial narrative that he hardly new of Wildstein’s existence at school and once again questioning his own ability to appoint competent administrators to high positions.

*To be continued.

FILES ON MAYORS

At Christie’s January 9 Press Conference he said he hardly knew of  Mark Sokolic, the Mayor of Fort Lee’s, existence. However, it has emerged that Christie had extensive files on the Mayors of New Jersey. They were color coded. They were given names that the Christie team felt were appropriate to the challenges that he might face in a national race. For example the town would be equated with Ohio or Florida for example. Democratic Mayors’ endorsements for his Governor’s race were a key target to show his bipartisanship acceptability.

It is hardly likely that Sokolic’s failure to endorse him went unnoticed. His town with key development potential at the foot of the bridge was pretty important. Christie’s argument that Sokolic, was not on his radar rings a bit thin when every Democratic Mayor was on his radar.  

HURRICANE SANDY.

Christie’s real problems emanate from the $60 billion Hurricane Sandy Relief Bill. He has been accused by the leading newspaper in New Jersey of using New Jersey’s share of the funds as a political slush fund. This by rewarding Mayors who endorsed him with moneys, whether they were hit by the hurricane or not, and withholding moneys from those Mayors who were in disfavor even though their towns desperately needed relief moneys. He also has not put into effect a New Jersey legislative Act that called for a review committee for any allocation of more than $5 million dollars.

This story has barely begun and this is where State and National attention will ultimately be concentrated on - the use or misuse of billions of dollars of Federal Funds.

WHERE TO NOW

After Christie’s Press Conference on January 9 Jay H. Ell blogged that Christie was history. (BLOG: Christie’s Bridge - Watergate Fast Forwarded, 1/12/14). He believed that the enormity of what was unfolding hadn’t sunk in.  Four days later Jay H. Ell blogged again on one of the breaking stories of usage of Hurricane Sandy money - "Anatomy of Corruption - Christie Style". It really was all over bar the shouting.

In another era Christie would have got away with it all. He has shown how capable he was in building his national persona and the detail he gave to garnering all his support. To this minute there are those that are saying that one must suspend judgment. One respected Republican Commentator on the most popular political show early in the day, “Morning Joe” states that Christie could emerge from this crises even stronger! Bobby Jindahl Republican Governor of  Louisiana has not lost any faith in him as the Head of the Republican Governors’ Convention. Paul Ryan has cautioned a rush to judgement. (A statement he is going to rue in his run for Presidency) The reason for this is Christie is hanging in there sounding convincing in the moment. He has lost none of his charisma, natural ability to connect and appear all things to all people.

As Jay H. Ell began, he is the best. The best Jay H. Ell hopes of a dying breed of politicians.