THE IRANIAN REGIME CAN ONLY LOSE
The theocracy of Iran is at the crossroads. The Ayatollah Khomeini agreed to a deal that ostensibly backs off from all Iran's previous "lines in the sand". If Iran tries to renege or to deceive on the most recent nuclear agreement between it and the Security Council 5 members and Germany it's status as polecat of the world will be solidified forever and the country's economy will further unravel. If the theocracy ultimately removes all ability to build a nuclear capability it is the beginning of the end of the present regime's dreams to lead the Muslim world and then become a world power. In fact it will have lost face.
Notwithstanding this reality, the deal, to put it mildly, has a received a mixed reaction from those that oppose Iran. Israel's Netanyahu, who is against any deal with the Iranian regime has a valid fear. However he keeps forgetting that Iran did not come into these negotiations to fool the world, - that they were trying to do anyway - rather they were forced into it by the financial and political realities of their situation. (Blog: Obama, Rouhani, Netanyahu And The Nuclear Negotiations, 11/13/13).
DIVERGENT RESPONSES TO IRAN'S AGREEMENT.
It is not as Billy Joel might sing - "It is all a matter of trust" - as neither the supporters or detractors of the deal really trust the Iranians, especially the self confessed conman Rouhani. Rather the divergencies are based, on the one hand, on hope and the belief that the penny has finally dropped in Iran versus disbelief that the Iranians will ever give up their desire to become a Mulsim and world force, on the other. No where are these differing viewpoints more starkly illustrated in the positions of Israel's President Simon Peres and Israel's Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.
Benjamin Netanyahu regards the deal in Geneva as an "historic mistake". The burden of his argument is that as the infrastructure for making nuclear weaponry has not been dismantled, in return for the softening of about 6 billion dollars in sanctions. Also Netanyahu claims that it will be difficult to put the sanctions back in place. He likens the agreement to that made by the US with North Korea in 2005. Netanyahu says that the proceedings in Geneva for the first time give offical permission to Iran to continue with their uranium production.This first step could be the last step. His Minister of Trade went one step further saying that if a nuclear suitcase blows up in New York in five years time this was the beginning of the process, There was no way Bibi would accept Obama's reassurances - at least not in public.
It is, however, interesting to note that at the Brookings Institute Symposium in early December that Netanyahu's tough line on Iran remained but he thanked Obama for what he called an "indespensible alliance that has experienced unprecedented defense, security and intelligence cooperation between the two governments under their leadership".
Simon Peres sounded a more conciliatory note. He maintained that this was an interim deal the success or failure depended on deeds not words. He reassured the Iranian people that they were not Israel's enemies and the issue can be solved diplomatically. He publically stated the he was reassured by Obama's commitment not to allow Iran to have a nuclear capability. He even offered to meet Rouhani.
Saudi Arabia, Israel's newest best friend, have long made it clear, along diplomatic channels, that their line on Iran is as tough as the Jewish Homeland's, but for the moment they are saying nothing. If Israel takes the "nuclear option" to defend itself, Jay H. Ell believes that they will have two main Muslim supporters - Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirites.
The Iranian populace have welcomed the deal. While most of the world and its leaders have given a sigh of relief at the accord, in one of its rare bipartisan initiatives the US Congress was all set to stiffen sanctions on Iran let alone lessen them. Obama has appealed to them to keep their powder dry. Iran's Khomeini, Jay H. Ell is sure, would believe that this is just posturing but in all probability it would be difficult for him to understand Congress's irreverent attitude to the President of the Country. (Some of the Republican faithful have maintained that Obama has initiated the deal to divert attention from Obamacare!).
One issue everyone seems clear on - there is no way that Iran will be allowed to have a nuclear capability. Kerry and Obama have repeatedly said so and politically in America it just cannot fly.
THE DEAL
There are two phases to the deal - an initial 6 month interim deal and then a permanent one with a view to eliminating Iran's nuclear program forever thereby allowing the lifting of sanctions permanently. The rationale for the two stage approach has to be to get some momentum started and hopefully build up trust before a final deal can be hammered out.
Basically the first phase of the deal calls for the Iranians to halt any activity that could be perceived as furthering its nuclear ambitions in return for a lessening of its sanctions. Iran cannot create any more nuclear centrifuges and they have to dilute their uranium concentration to 5% from 20%. They also cannot increase their stockpile of uranium. Iran also cannot complete its nuclear heavy water reactor which could be a source of plutonium. In short Iran would call a halt to any process that would enhance its ability to create nuclear weapons and cut back on some of what it already has.
In return Iran gains about 6 billion dollars that have currently been unavailable due to sanctions. This includes about $4.5 billion owed to Iran from oil sales and 1.2 billion from gold and other valuables, according to Pieter Greer of CNN.
However there is still nearly a $100 billion that is frozen by sanctions. This is mainly as a result of the USA's controlling of banking and other regulations and virtually blowing Iran's export oil trade off the map.
The Iranian nuclear commitment is to be closely monitored and their further activities are to be closely monitored forever.
Secretary of State Kerry has maintained that the hardest part of the negotiations are still to come and he should know.
OUTCOMES:
Let us assume that Iran is caught violating these initial or later provisions and proceeds to develop nuclear weaponry. All hell will then break loose and Israel, possibly aided by the USA, could bomb the sites to kingdom come and as the Yadin report would indicate Iran could not do much in retaliation. There cannot be too much in it for Iran to continue with their nuclear capability as how will it help them at the end of the day even if their sites could not be bombed? Anyway Jay H. Ell never believed that they ever wanted a nuclear capability to use it. Rather the Ayatollohs want it for status and "face".
Also if Iran plays games they will not have a friend in the world outside of Syria and their two terrorist surrogates, Hezbollah and Hamas. Don't forget they would have also "fooled" two key "neutral" partners Russia and China. And even more importantly they will have worsened the situation that lead them to go into these negtiations in the first place, namely their parlous financial and domestic situation. The general population in Iran, that are hailing the deal, are not demonstrating for Iran's right to make a bomb.
At the same time there is little doubt that the Iranian Ayotollahs are not just going to roll over. They will try to hang onto as much as they have got to keep them as a force in the Middle East. But as Kerry has said, "We are not fools" and he is sitting with all the cards.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The chances of a deal, at best, according to Obama, must be 50 - 50. Also Jay H. Ell really wonders what Iran's game is. They are still spewing venom at Israel, vowing never to recognize Israel and telling Peres to jump into the Red Sea. This is not the way to win friends and influence people - especially people in the American Legislative Congress.
Also those that matter will not let the Ayatollahs off the hook by allowing them, ostensibly, " to keep their pride" and have any capabilities in position, however compromised, that could allow them to build nuclear weaponry.
The Ayatollahs will have to prepare for the reaction of failed talks. How will their populace react? Have they created false expectations? Jay H. Ell wonders how well Khomeini has thought this through. If the deal fails the best they can hope for is that they unite the nation against the world in general and Israel in particular. But that will not bring down inflation or create jobs for example.
Jay H. Ell is obiously missing something.
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