OBAMACARE, ELECTIONS AND WOMEN

The Republicans have not retreated one inch from their main political thrust – namely “Attack Obamacare”. In fact the GOP is bereft of any positive initiative. Following upon an Obamacare 24 billion dollar closing down of the Government and nearly wrecking the Country’s credit rating they have now launched, a full pressure attack on the “disaster” that was the launch of Obamacare. With impressive false indignation, in endless congressional hearings, they are berating all and sundry, from technicians to the Health Care Secretary, and of course Obama, for the Administration’s failure to put into place the very project that they have spent 5 years trying to kill. (Blogs: Obamacare and Obamascare explained, September 28, 2013 and Obamacare: Hypocrisy. Lies and Facts, October 24, 2013).

The GOP obviously must believe that this is a winning strategy.

TWIN STATEGIES OF OBAMARE AND VOTER SUPPRESION

Perhaps it is a bit unfair to say the Republicans were doing nothing else. They were very busy on what has been interpreted as voter suppression legislation in State legislatures that they control.  It is incontrovertible that this legislation will make it more difficult to vote in elections. The poor, the minorities, the elderly and the full time students, who just also happen to be predominantly Democratic, will be impacted disproportionately.

The one advantage of the twin strategies of attack Obamacare and make it difficult for Democrats to vote, is that they are about the only issues that the Republican and the insurgent Tea Party agree on. Also the stumbles on the Obamacare launch and the Republican successful campaign of terrifying the electorate, that Obamacare will take away their health insurance has helped reinforce the Republicans’ denial that they can ignore all else So let Obama bleat about a comprehensive immigration bill and exhort a bipartisan consensus on the budget and debt ceiling they will not be sidetracked. Let Harry Reid focus on the civil rights of the LGBT and women but the Republicans are going to stick to scaring on Obamacare.

WELL ARE THE STRATEGIES WORKING?

At the moment what metrics can be used to measure the Republican tactics? Obama and his plan have a 40% acceptance rate. This could be encouraging to the GOP but that is where they have been throughout. The Republican approval rate is at 22% and that has decidedly dropped during the process. What encourages apparently are the daily reports of some insurance companies dropping their current plans and leaving patients to find new insurance. This scenario strikes fear into the hearts of any American since prior to Obamacare they need not have been accepted in any other plan, Sooner or later those “dropped” are going to find out that they now have to be accepted by law so this tactic will backfire.

Bur the Republicans still have to believe that this strategy is going to bring electoral success. So they soldier on although all the polls show that there has been a major shift to the Democrats bringing the seemingly impregnable Republican House of Representatives into play in 2014. In addition the Republican advantage in the Senate, as a result of the distribution of the midterm Senate races, according to the polls no longer is evident.

RECENT ELECTIONS

New Jersey – Booker and Chrisite

Well polls are polls but it’s the elections that count and there have only been a few of those of any national significance. The first resulted in the overwhelming victory, in the New Jersey Senate race by Democrat Corrie Booker. But Booker replaced a former Democratic Senator. Still this result can hardly been encouraging, as one would have for some movement towards the GOP if their strategy was working.

Also New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie was fearful enough to schedule the Senate election months ahead of his gubernatorial election lest the Democratic turn out for Booker would compromise him.  So Christie spent $25,000,000 of New Jersey’s money to hold his election on a different day to Booker.

That decision speaks volumes because Christie is the only Republican with any general appeal yet he was fearful of the Democratic base that would come out to vote for Booker and against him in the gubernatorial race. The Democrats took a tactical decision to give Christie a pass. Let him stick around and heighten the rift between the two wings of the GOP

Christie overwhelmingly won with bipartisan support and officially stamped himself as the Republican Establishment Candidate for 2016. However his veto on increasing the minimum wage in New Jersey was soundly beaten in a referendum. He also had to back down on his opposition to same sex marriage. So Christie is ultimately is betwixt and between and that is where the Democrats want him.

Virginia State Elections

Virginia would have to be the acid test of what the Republicans are gaining by this strategy. If the Republicans are serious of winning a national election they have to win States like Virginia. Three positions were contested in Virginia – Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. The Republicans currently held all of these positions. Much was at stake here. Not the least the fate of Obamacare at a state level. The outgoing Republican Governor had not accepted Federally funded Medicaid extension to the poor nor had he set up a State exchange for its citizens to enlist in Obamacare.

 The Republican candidates’ central slogan was that a vote for the Democrats was a vote for Obamacare. Thus it could not be argued that all politics are “local” when the Republican slate is vowing to continue, on the State level, the national Republican do or die position on Obamacare. Also the Democrat slate had plenty of other issues to talk about such as immigration, women’s rights, government shutdowns and bipartainship and the like.

In truth this election was a mirror image of the national debate and the rhetoric used by both sides. The high profile politicians that found their way to support the various candidates reinforced the importance of Virginia.

Candidates in Virginia

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Terry McCaulliff, collected tons of money and had Bill Clinton, Obama and Biden in toe. However, McCauliffe was extremely disliked in Virginia with a disapproval rating well above his approval rating. The Republicans had a Tea Party candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, who had Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Marc Rubio and Rand Paul in attendance.  (No Bush’s or Christie’s were in evidence).

If the differences between the gubernatorial candidates were stark they reached Saturday Night Live proportions in the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Republican E. W. Jackson believes inter alia that Obama’s Christianity is laughable, gays are perverted and non-Christians are “engaged in some sort of false religion”. Democrat Northam just stuck to the moderate bipartainship mantra of Obama so as to get “things done”.

The Republican in the race for the Attorney General’s office was Scott Obenshain. He had a “positive message” and family connections and plenty of money. He received support from Republicans who had crossed over the floor to support McCauliff according to the Washington Post. Obenshain was “realistic” and the guy that the Republicans hoped to salvage some credibility on - the establishment Republican that is.

Taking all factors into account the Republicans have naught for their comfort. McCauliffe delivered, Jackson was slaughtered and Obenshain scraped in by 500 votes and that election will be subject to a recount.

WOMAN VOTER SUPPRESSION

However, there was one fascinating piece of demographic data in the Virginian races. The democrats were ahead in all the demographics expected excepting for women and women’s issues vote where the point spread was higher than expected, especially among the unmarried. (The outgoing Virginian Republican Governor had backed a compulsory intravaginal ultrasound probe, in every case of abortion, regardless of the circumstances). The perception that the Republicans pay lip service to women’s rights is obviously more than just a perception.

Besides the usual issues of women’s health concerns, contraception and abortion another discriminatory problem cropped up - at the time of the election a major scandal relating to women voter suppression broke out in Texas.

The Texas legislature passed a voter suppression law. Essentially you now must have a governmental identification to vote. In addition that voter identity must correspond to the exact name you have on the Voter’s role. Now women as they get married and divorced have more differences on their documents than other demographic. Also women tend to alternate between using their maiden names as their middle or their last names. In two well-publicized incidents, a Judge and the Democratic candidate for Texas Governor were not allowed to cast ballots in a local election. Fully one third of women voters in Texas face this problem. Thus far the Republicans have been mum on this issue. They obviously believe that their voter suppression legislation is their only hope regardless of these unintended consequences.

If Virginia is anything to go by the female vote is going to become more and central in defining the future of the political landscape.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Republicans seem too far-gone to back off now even though their strategy is obviously not working. They are relying on their Hail Mary pass and just hoping against hope that Obamacare collapses by its own weight. So Obama better see to it that he does not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A concerted campaigning effort is on the way by Obama to educate on the obvious advantages of Obamacare, but all that will come to naught if the website does not work. If the website works are the Republicans ready for the backlash?  What is their plan B?

Also women’s rights are front and central and played a big part in the Virginia elections. The latter issue gets scant attention from the Republicans and Jay H. Ell believes this is going to become more and more central to the political debate.

Just one final thought and you heard it first here. Texas has added women to their list of those discriminated against. Texas has the highest percentage of uninsured, in the USA - 24%. Nearly 40% of Texans are Latinos and of those nearly 40% have no medical insurance.

Seems that the messages on Obamacare and women’s rights needs to get out. If it does Texas will go Democrat – that is if they do not secede from the USA first.