OBAMA, ROUHANI, NETANYAHU AND NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

OBAMA, ROUHANI, NETANYAHU AND NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

Iran has burst its way back onto the international landscape. As a result of a complete reversal of policy by the incoming President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, there are currently negotiations going on between the Security Council five and Germany on the one hand and Iran on the other, on the cessation of Iran’s nuclear program Ostensibly the Iranian position represents an incredible change of heart brought about by Rouhani’s election.

Just a year earlier Iran’s Ahmadinejad had repeated his belligerent no compromise position at the United Nations coupled with threats to wipe Israel of the face of the earth. (Blog: Israel’s Netanyahu, Iran’s Ahmadinejad and America’s Obama, September, 2012). Now there is just sweetness and light emanating from Iran. Rouhani is even prepared to concede that the holocaust may just have been real!  Rouhani’s volte-face led to the current negotiations.

All this activity has resulted in speculation and conspiracy theories that Obama is about to sell out Israel and legitimize Iran’s nuclear weapon program.

THE FACTS ON IRAN

·      Iran are involved in a nuclear program that any reasonable person could infer was leading to the making of nuclear weaponry.

·      To date they have been defiant in proceeding with this process and this has lead to the imposition of devastating international sanctions.

·      In tandem with this program, they have sponsored international terrorism, been the paymasters of two terrorist organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, backed Syria in its genocide of its own peoples and threatened to eliminate the State of Israel.

·      President Rouhani is an insider and a former negotiator for the Nuclear Program, who has boasted in print, that while conducting nuclear talks on a previous occasion, he used the opportunity to advance Iran's nuclear program.

·      Rouhani and Ahmadinejad are both the mouthpieces of the Khomeini’s, Mullahs and military and merely reflective of the latter’s’ policies.

·      So if there is a total about face it is not between Rouhani and Ahmadinejad it is at the highest possible level and sanctioned by the Ayatollah Khomeini himself

·      It is thus not unreasonable to view Rouhani’s initiative with the deepest skeptism.

·      At the same time it would have been impossible to reject, out of hand, the offer made by Rouhani, without fully pursuing it. Hence for the first time in ages you have the Security Council ad idem.

 POSSIBLE RATIONALE FOR IRAN’S INITIATIVE

Financial.

Sanctions are biting deep and the Iranian economy is in an unimaginable shambles. According to a New York Times report of September 20, 2013 their currency situation is in dire straits and is bringing the Country to its knees. Oil sales that account for 80% of revenue are cut in half. What money reserves they have are tied up in banks and are unobtainable. They cannot repatriate money that is theirs or owing to them. The Government owes billions to contactors, municipalities and banks.

Also the currency has taken a dive. It has lost two thirds of its value towards the dollar. Inflation is said to be close to 30% and unemployment high. A large amount of transactions are taking place in illegal markets and at unfavorable terms to the Iranians.  The situation has noticeably worsened since July when the USA initiated even tougher sanctions against the rial.  White House Press Secretary Carney stated that the USA would be targeting foreign institutions that conduct or facilitate financial transactions with Iran. The US Treasury Department added that the aim was to make the rial unusable in international finance. Obama issued the Executive order that put all this into effect and in addition he gave financial institutions a month to dump their rials.

Political.

Political opposition in Iran is almost completely squashed.   Two major opposition parties were banned in 1983 and again 2010 two parties were banned and their leaders were imprisoned. This followed street protests at Ahmadinejad’s election where close on a 100 citizens were killed.  Protests have continued ever since. Several of these protests have been as a result of economic conditions and the fall of the rial. In 2012 hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to be met by riot police. Popular support has rallied around two leaders, Hussein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, who were put under House arrest. 

So it is fair to say the “natives are restless”. The Iranians have been emboldened by the Arab Spring and communication is aided by the Internet. There are websites and social media. While much is officially censored most have their own Internet connection and communicate.

So in addition to the financial instability there is political instability.

NETANYAHU’S POSITION.

Netanyahu has made it clear that any settlement with Iran is totally unacceptable. He has verbally abused all and sundry. He has maintained that the deal that is being negotiated between the six nations and Iran is “the best deal in the world for Iran”. Kerry has advised him that he should stick around and wait and see what the deal is. Kerry also told a Sunday Talk Show that the negotiators are “not stupid” and they “know” Rouhani’s record of negotiating while proceeding with nuclear advancement. The latter behavior of Rouhani is the reason Netanyahu argues that he should not be negotiated with at all.

Netanyahu’s own judgment is in question. A year ago he was ready to “take out” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when his own Security and Military establishment publicly repudiated him. While he has the support of the hawks, the Israeli opposition has criticized Netanyahu. An editorial in Haaertz attacked the Prime Minister for his handling of the Iran negotiation issue. His premature statements and his threats that he would not be bound by any agreement are not winning any friends. Granted Netanyahu has right-wingers, Avigdor Lieberman and Moshe Feiglin, to worry about but most of Israel’s premiers have had to be statesmen or women in order to navigate their survival in a hostile world. Netanyahu, to date, is in no danger of joining them.

There cannot be many that do not recognize Israel’s precarious position.  Israel is in the direct firing line of Iran and they are not going to be persuaded that Rouhani, a self confessed conman, is acting in good faith. However, Israel is not the only country with skin in this game. Besides USA, the European countries, especially France and Germany regard Iran as a real threat and more than half the Arab world lead by Saudi Arabia would like to take them out a well.

Can Netanyahu list the countries in the world that would comfortable knowing that Iran has a nuclear capability?

CHANCES OF AN AMERICAN SELL OUT

The chance of America selling out on Israel is zero. Not only is Israel their number one ally, the USA has led the sanctions battle against Iran. Then in case it is forgotten America and Iran have been at loggerheads since the hostage crisis in the 1970’s. America backed and helped Saddam Hussein’s Iraq against Iran in a long and bitter war.

Obama has made it quite clear, again and again, that this isn’t going to happen and other than the drivel from the right wing bloggers on the Internet there has been absolutely nothing to suggest anything else. (This commitment does not extend to doing Netanyahu’s bidding). If it was necessary, and obviously it was, Kerry issued yet another reassurance that Israel’s interests will be protected.

Even if the crazies, who have been warning that Obama is a Muslim plant waiting for a chance like this to destroy America and Israel, were right, Congress and the country would not let him.  Only Congress can lift the sanctions on Iran and support of Israel is about the only issue Congress agrees on. In this regard Kerry has his work cut out to persuade the Senate not to introduce new sanctions let alone relieve a few of those in place.

Finally, the International Atomic Agency has confirmed that they will verify any future deal with Iran.

CHANCES OF A SETTLEMENT

There are two sets of negotiations. One is between the “six” and the other is between the “six” and Iran. The six are not exactly ad idem.  As their composition might suggest some might be less stringent in their demands then others. France appears to be unrelenting.

Their negotiations do not really matter if Rouhani sticks to what he has said that he has drawn a line in the sand – Iran must be allowed to continue to enrich uranium. There has to be no possibility of that happening as this process is central to the production of nuclear weapons. If this report is accurate Rouhani cannot be serious! Kerry maintains that the delay in negotiations is to allow the Iranians to consult with their “leaders” and there is no split among the six negotiators. Contrary reports have identified France as being the hardliner.

They all meet again in a few days. Maybe Rouhani’s masters will realize that you cannot bluff with a pair of twos forever. Also the International Atomic Agency is due to make a report on Iran soon.

Either Rouhani ‘s masters change their stance or this whole exercise is dead in the water and the action will move back to Iran where the populace will continue to pay the price of their theocratic dictators’ prejudices and ambitions. The internal situation in Iran is what precipitated the new “accommodating” image of the theocracy in the first place.  The CNN correspondent reported that the failure to reach a deal produced anger and frustration in Teheran some of which was directed against France. However, it will boil down to a choice between Iran’s nuclear ambitions or their leaders’ decision to return to normalcy. Jay H. Ell’s guess is that the average Iranian is really not interested in whether Iran is a nuclear power or not.

One has to imagine that life in Iran will only get worse if there is no lifting of the sanctions but it is likewise difficult to imagine exactly how all this is going to play out in the next few months. However it plays out Iran have to settle eventually. Their very presence at the negotiating table and their abrupt change to their current conciliatory tone is indicative of the seriousness of the predicament they find themselves in.

ADVICE:

Jay H. Ell rarely has the temerity to offer these powerful operators advice. The negotiating six have to realize that they are not dealing with a sudden epiphany by Khomeini of what is right and good. Rather it is an act of desperate necessity and even survival. The six need not budge an inch.