JFK and LBJ – A MYTHTAKE?

November the twenty second is the date of John Fitzgerald’s Kennedy’s assassination.  This November twenty second was the 50^th anniversary of his brutal slaying. Jay H. Ell has been quite taken aback at the sentiment this landmark has evoked. Most Americans were not alive in 1963. For a week the American media was totally dominated by the event itself and his legacy. Kennedy, who only served a1000 days in office, somehow captured the public’s imagination like no other American figure in the twentieth century. Statements such as, “his assassination ended hope and innocence in America” or “he inspired a new vision for America” are the consensus of, at least, the American media.

To illustrate how powerful the Kennedy myth is the right wing megalomaniac media leaders have declared him one of them. This rather than attack him as the inspiration of the “New Frontier’ or the “New Left”. The Republican media spectrum from Rush Limbaugh to Charles Krauthammer all maintain that JFK was a conservative that would never been at home in the present Democratic Party. Taking a leaf out of the Bob Dole playbook that Nixon and Reagan would never have got the Republican nomination for Presidency in today’s “Republican” Party they have declared JFK a conservative who would not recognize today’s Democratic Party. The only difference is that Dole represents 50 years of the Republican establishment and Limbaugh and Krauthammer represent the spectrum of the Republican propaganda machine.

Just to once again reinforce the point of his prominent position in the American psyche, everyone alive at the time of his assassination claims to remember where they were when it happened. The respected television anchor Tom Brokaw has produced a television documentary on the subject as well as an accompanying book. Richard Reeves, the celebrated historian, speaking on the occasion of the 50^th Anniversary of the assassination noted that at least 40,000 books had been published on JFK and at least 140 were due to be released this November. 

JFK AMONG THE PRESIDENTS 

This still begs the question of why JFK captured and still holds the American imagination and psyche even 50 years later. Why him and not Teddy Roosevelt or Franklin Roosevelt or Lyndon Baines Johnson, (LBJ). The latter two ushered in the legislation that changed America more than any others in the twentieth century. 

Now no serious historian would argue that JFK was one the greatest of American Presidents. However in current day popular polls he is rated just behind the greats. So what is it that has resulted in this endless fascination of this post war President? Jay H Ell does not claim to fully understand it but believes that there are a host of factors that has kept his memory and his mystique alive. 

JFK’S PRESIDENTIAL RECORD

Foreign Policy

First let us examine his Presidential record. Foreign policy is the arena where Kennedy has his greatest legacy. After the Bay of Pigs Cuban invasion disaster, Cuba ironically provided him with his greatest triumph. Missile sites were sited on Cuba and the USSR was on its way with weapons. A showdown loomed that could have started the third world war. Kennedy stood firm and threatened to stop any Russian ship that was destined for Cuba. Kruschev blinked and the ships turned back. The missile sites in Cuba were dismantled. In return the USA promised never to invade Cuba and take down some obsolete missile sites in Turkey.

His much acclaimed "Ich Bien ein Berliner" speech marked the USA’s position on supporting Germany and a commitment to fight Communism. He was also the first American President to sell sophisticated weaponry to Israel. In addition the Vietnam misadventure was started by him.

Domestic Policy

JFK called his domestic policy the “New Frontier”. He lowered the war and postwar high income taxes. The latter in addition to other measures helped turn the economy around. However, even in economics few of Kennedy’s programs were passed in the 1000 days. 

The two areas of Domestic policy that his administration was best known for were the establishment of the Peace Corp and his commitment to civil rights. The former was an unqualified success. It formalized the placement of volunteers for 24 months to help in countries in areas of need. The program functions to this day. He also spearheaded what would become the highly successful NASA program.

In the area of civil rights his actions did not match his rhetoric. He intervened in Southern States on a few crucial occasions in Mississipi and Alabama sending troops to ensure the educational rights of African Americans. However, Richard Reeves in his work, President Kennedy: Profile of Power, notes that in 1963 both his speechwriter Ted Sorenson and his brother Bobby exhorted him to do more legislatively. A speech that JFK delivered in 1963 was to become the basis of the landmark Civil Rights Act. Again it was not Kennedy that ushered that in but his successor, Johnson.

It is fair to say that this is not a stellar resume. Even though he was cruelly cut down in his prime in the area of civil rights that he was hailed as the champion he was just a little short of disappointing.

So there have to be other factors that have contributed to this earthshattering legacy.

A BREATH OF FRESH AIR SEEN ON TV?

The charismatic youthful Kennedy with his enchanting wife captured the imagination of the Americans as they were contrasted with the stuffy conventional images of those previously holding the office. The electorate identified with this young vital family as they watched them and their interplay with their extended family playing touch football in the Kennedy Compound at Hyannisport. In addition to this his campaign breathed a new awakening epitomized by Frank Sinatra singing, “We’ve got high hopes, high hopes, high apple pie hopes …..  so vote for Kennedy”. Even with his wealth he projected the image of the Catholic Irish immigrant, underdog outsider.

All this was for the first time was being seen in pictures in living rooms as television made its debut in American elections. He was born to the TV medium. His rasping, forceful, eloquent, hopeful and inclusive Inauguration Speech, mapping out a new beginning, change and a renewal ranks up there with Lincoln’s Gettysburg address and was broadcast to the world. For practical purposes there were only three television channels and they were free to everyone. The novelty of it all had to have resulted in probably the greatest proportion, ever, of Americans being witness to their first family. The assassination, it’s aftermath, the funeral, the dignified strong widow in her blood stained pink suit, her tiny son saluting the corsage with the extended family in attendance, all of this added to etching the image of JFK in a nation’s psyche to this day as the old TV reels are played again and again.

Billy Joel captured the feeling of the despondency of the youth at his death. He maintained that the nation was robbed of this new vibrant President and had gone back to depressing “politics as usual” with Johnson as President. 

So JFK heralded a new gestalt. There was a perception of joy, optimism, togetherness and progress – Camelot was born and then prematurely died. 

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ON JFK’S ASSASSINATION

From the very beginning to this day one or other conspiracy theory has been espoused, elaborated on or debunked. Over the past 50 years two thousand books have been written on the subject of conspiracy. Several screen movies have been made and documentaries crop up periodically. From the bizarre circumstances following the assassination starting with the shooting of Oswald  evidence has "turned up", has been allegedly tampered with or withheld.  Witnesses were found, “intimidated”, died or mysteriously disappeared. All and sundry were implicated at one stage or another – the CIA, FBI, the Mob, the Cubans, the Russians and even the Israelis were suspects.  President Johnson was regularly mentioned together with Richard Nixon and Edgar J Hoover.

The official enquiry into the tragedy was lead by Chief Justice Earl Warren who was assisted by a high powered committee including future President Ford. The Warren Commission, in a 900 page report, found that Lee Harvey Oswald was the sole gunman. If the hope was that this exhaustive enquiry would settle the issue once for all, it backfired. All it did was serve as an endless nidus for more conjecture, more debunking and more theories. 

In 1979 the groundswell of cynicism at the single bullet theory with its lone gunman lead the US House Committee on Assassinations to conduct an investigation into the killing of Kennedy. The latter concluded that there were probably two gunmen that shot at Kennedy. Among other observations it was noted that the CIA were uncooperative, were causative of other assassinations and were involved in some of the organizations that Oswald was a member of.  Also the Committee absolved any foreign nation in the crime – a conclusion that is generally accepted.

All this has kept Kennedy in the public consciousness and increased sympathy towards him. The citizenry believe that the government is somehow hiding something and that indicated they wanted to get rid of JFK. This was all happening at a time when there was less and less confidence in government as opposition grew to the Vietnam war. (One of the supposed motives, with very little evidence, for his assassination was that Kennedy was going to disengage from Vietnam). Dissulsionment with government has only increased since that day. So if the “government” was hiding and still is hiding facts of JFK’s murder, JFK must have been on the people’s side.  A 2102 Gallop poll revealed that over 60% of Americans believe that there was a conspiracy.  This number was far higher in earlier years, as much as 75% ten years ago. Jay H. Ell believes that the decreasing numbers reflect the fact that most of those now surveyed were not alive at the time of the assassination. 

One fact is certain till the CIA releases their remaining 1000 documents in 2017 they remain under a cloud. Another certainty is that JFK’s mystique will continue as it is doubtful that this question will ever be answered to everyone’s satisfaction.

JFK’S FAMILY SUCCESSORS

The Kennedy family has constantly been in the public eye thereby never eliminating JFK from the public consciousness. The most famous of them all was brother Robert who was JFK’s attorney general. In 1968 Bobby was the favorite to be the Democratic candidate for Presidency and take over his brother’s mantle. But it was not to be as he too was slain by an assassin’s bullet adding to the mystique of JFK and the Kennedy legend. Edward Kennedy the youngest brother served in the Senate for nearly 50 years. He was considered to be a lion in that institution with his name attached to much legislation covering the spectrum of services to the American population. In addition there were several others that served in public office. The most recent being JFK’s own daughter Caroline who was appointed Ambassador to Japan.

So JFK has lived on in the American public scene through the Kennedy public servants.

THE KENNEDY CURSE

JFK and Bobby were not the only two brothers to die at a young age,  the eldest brother Joseph had already been a victim of World War 11.  Sister Rosemary was institutionalized for mental instability. Another sister Kathleen died in an airplane accident in France. Two of JFK’s children died prematurely. Brother Edward and Joseph Kennedy 11, the son of Bobby were both drivers of cars that resulted in the death of female passengers. Another of Bobby’s children Michael was charged with statutory rape only to die in a skiing accident.  William Kennedy Smith, a JFK nephew was charged with rape but was found not guilty. Two of Edward’s three children were afflicted with serious cancer one subsequently dying of a heart attack. Another child of Bobby’s, David Anthony died of an overdose.

The ultimate tragedy occurred in 1999 when John John Kennedy, JFK’s only living son died in a plane accident. 

This all served to keep attention on JFK. None of these "curses" were ever reported without reflecting back to the legacy of the murdered president.

SCANDAL

JFK lived in an era where the private lives of public celebrities were respected by the media. However over the years more and more of his promiscuous adulterous life became exposed. More significantly this has not effected the adulation afforded to him today. None of this tarnished his glow. No feminists have come out and attacked his memory as a result of literally scores of incidents involving the staff of the Whitehouse, socialites, and a slew of actresses.  

Like David of the bible he was forgiven in presumably because of his other achievements. If anything these ongoing revelations just added to the mystique and myth. 

LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON (LBJ)

LBJ had to be the father of Civil Rights Legislation in the USA. He morphed JFK’s “New Frontier” into the “Great Society”. Significantly he did it all in Kennedy’s name. He repeatedly maintained that he was carrying forward what Kennedy had started and maintained that this needed to be done in his memory. It is doubtful that this work could have been accomplished as easily or at all with JFK as President. Johnson the great negotiator, skillful politician and wheeler dealer in Congress now had the added power of the Presidency to enact changes of the magnitude of Franklin Roosevelt and as difficult as Abraham Lincoln’s tasks were. Landmark Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts were passed. He also appointed the first African American to the Supreme Court and to the Cabinet. In 1968 he passed yet another Civil Rights Act relating to Housing. In addition the Great Society included disability help and Medicare and Medicaid.

CONCLUSION:

 The Kennedy charisma, his assassination with the ongoing conspiracy theories, family, tragedy and even scandals added to the mystique and have contributed to his legacy. All this coupled with the belief that he was responsible for the Civil Rights triumphs of LBJ as well as being the architect of LBJ’s Great Society have given JFK a status in the popular culture that no serious historians have afforded him. Jay H. Ell believes that it is to LBJ, JFK owes a great debt for his current place in history and the psyche of American folklore. Jay H. Ell further believes that without LBJ, Kennedy’s New Frontier would never been translated into The Great Society. 

So perhaps it is time to pay tribute, as well, to the 50 year Anniversary of LBJ becoming President. 

OBAMA A LYING DISGRACED PRESIDENT - WHY?

The Republicans have hit pay dirt. Their only issue – attack Obamacare is close to hitting the jackpot or so they pray, hope and believe. Their 500 to 1 shot is leading in the homeward stretch and they have Obama on the ropes – just to mix a couple of metaphors. (Blogs: Obamacare and Obamascare Explained, 11/28/13. Obamacare, Elections and Women, 11/7/13 and Obamacare: Politics, Hypocrisy, Lies and Facts 10/24/13). One of Obama’s key messages that you can keep your old insurance if you so desire has not materialized for many. Millions of Americans have received letters from their insurance companies terminating their current insurance.  The politicians and the media, without any thought as to why this occurred have unleashed unprecedented vitriol on Obama. They are calling him a liar and disgraced.

The Republicans are calling Obama an unashamed liar. This is really heavy stuff in American politics. America is a secular country, but as the former Chief Rabbi of the United Kingdom, Jonathon Sacks, has observed that every American President has mentioned G-D in one of his inauguration speeches. So while there is disrespect and even hatred for Obama the convention is that the Office of President is respected with almost a divine reverence. So much so that just a few years ago when a Republican, Joe Wilson, screamed out during an Obama State of the Union speech, “You are lying”, he was censored by all and sundry including his own Party. So while the President is not quite the Pope, in terms of reverence it is almost a photo finish. -just to sling in yet another metaphor.

That was then and this is now.

OBAMA THE LIAR

No lesser luminary than Dick Cheney, former Vice President and purveyor of the misinformation that led the USA to go to war on Iraq, as he swore that the latter definitely had weapons of mass destruction, (reverence forbids Jay H Ell to call this a lie), is leading the choir that Obama is a liar. Conferring on Cheney, Vice Papal status, Jay H. Ell has to believe that the fact that his daughter is running as a Tea Party candidate for the Senate has nothing to do with the immediate past Vice President’s unprecedented behavior towards the sitting President, Obama.  Anne Romney, who incidentally has neglected to comment on her husband’s lie that he never recommended Romneycare for the whole country, has echoed Cheney’s claim.

Then of course there are there is the slew of legislators that either label Obama a liar or claim that he deliberately and knowingly mislead the electorate. This band, as one might expect is lead by Ted Cruz.

As usual the unelected megalomaniacs in the media are shouting the odds. One would expect rants from Rush Limbaugh but when a “respected” intellect such as Charles Krauthammer joins the party you have to know this is developing into a free for all. He accuses Obama of “mendacity, paternalism and subterfuge”. He is paternalistic because he does not give people what they want. Rather Obama decides their insurance i.e. the Affordable Health Care Act, (AHCA)! Krauthammer seems to forget elections, votes in Congress and Supreme Court decisions that have endorsed the AHCA.

But Obama is more than a liar he is also washed up, disgraced and discredited.

OBAMA WRITTEN OFF AS A DISASTER AND A DISGRACE

In this day and age of 24/7 media hysteria and a bloggosphere, that knows no bounds, the Obamacare insurance mishaps are being blown up to catastrophic levels. This is Obama’s Katrina. This is Obama’s Iraq.  Watergate and the Iran Contra scandal are also comparisons. A media consensus is that Obamacare is part of the curse that afflicts Presidents who win a second term. The 44^th President has also been declared a lame duck.

How one can compare Bush’s indifference on Katrina where nearly 2000 people died or Bush and Cheney’s misleading the USA into a war where tens of thousands died and are still dying with a failed website and an unintended consequence of the sloppily written AHCA, heaven only knows? To liken Obama’s actions to a Watergate, where there was a Presidential cover up of burglaries of political opponents and where several members of his Administration went to jail, is political hyperbole beyond the imagination. The Iran Contra scandal, where, on the Republican icon Reagan’s watch, arms were sold to Iran to get hostages released and then the money obtained used to illegally fund rebels in Nicaragua, is now compared to Obama’s failure to see that in his 2000 page AHCA he did not legally preclude insurance companies from terminating policies.

All of the above travesties are thus compared to glitches that Obama is experiencing in trying to get healthcare for everyone! The mob behavior is obscene and an indicator as to the depths that political discourse has sunk to in the USA.

The Media

The media must take plenty of responsibility for feeding into this pig fest and reinforcing these comparisons and embellishing them without putting them in any perspective. CNN, that paragon of journalistic virtue, daily, runs stories on television and on its web page of second term presidents who were sunk by scandals and disgraceful behavior such as Katrina, Iran Contra and Obamacare. CNN are just one of many media outlets that are using this hyperbole. For some in the mass media there is only one standard and that is readership or viewer ship. Generally speaking, they have abandoned their role as the valued fourth estate in favor of selling soap.

The frenzy has even spread to some Democrats who were ready to abandon Obama if the “mess” had not been resolved by Obama’s executive order. Bill Clinton, who should have known better but was running cover for Hillary, said Obama must keep his promise and change the law if necessary – knowing that, that was impossible at the time. Some Senate Democrats have drafted a bill to change the law and if they succeed it will compound the problem.

ANATOMY OF AHCA’S INSURANCE MESS – A FAIRY TALE

Once upon a time, there was a President named Obama who lied to a nation and perpetrated one of the dastardliest acts by throwing people off medical insurance while pretending to help them. It is a fact that the AHCA is merely a subterfuge for entrenching big government and socialism.   Read below of the spin of the socialists.

The Story

Introduction

Obama, correctly, took the ultimate responsibility for the insurance problems associated with the application of the AHCA. Indeed he should have seen to it in the first place, that insurance companies could not have terminated plans for anyone. It is inexcusable that he didn’t.

 However there is evidence in mitigation and exculpatory information that would negate that this lapse defines him as a liar and a rogue. (Jay H. Ell discussed some of these factors in his blogs referred to above).

How to Pass a Bill in Washington

Anyone will tell you that in Washington to pass a Bill, as expansive as the AHCA, especially in the field of medicine where one in every six dollars in the USA is spent, you need allies. - allies with deep pockets. There are so many vested interests in this goldmine of medical care that it is a question of recruiting allies that interfere least with your objectives and have enough resources to help you fight off the other sharks. This has proved an impossible task as for over a century American Presidents have tried and failed - failed that is until Obama came along. The most recent failure was under the Clintons whose comprehensive plan was kyboshed by the whole cabal including the American Medical Association, (AMA) opposing it

Obama recruited two powerful lobbies, the medical insurance lobby and the AMA. By doing this he could turn this into a joint government and private industry venture with the doctors in toe. The insurance companies would benefit by more enrollees, the doctors would benefit by having more paying patients and Obama would benefit by using a Republican model. (He also hoped by using the Republican Heritage Foundation’s model, Romneycare, he would garner Republican support!).

The AHCA

First of all it must be made quite clear that the AHCA states, “Nothing in this Act shall be construed that an individual terminate coverage. …in which such an individual was enrolled on the date of the enactment of this Act.”

Thus in the AHCA it was explicit that you need not change your insurance if you were happy with your present one. Obama consequently reassured again and again that that was the case. The assumption was that the only variable was the rights of the consumer. No provision was made, in the sloppily written AHCA, to stop insurance companies from terminating a plan that consumers were on that was initiated after 2010. The problem was that there was a three-year delay after the enactment of the AHCA so insurance companies could legally terminate plans put into place after 2010. The act should have stated what was intended, namely that the no one could be kicked off any existing insurance plan, period. There is not one jot of evidence that Obama foresaw this mess. His subsequent repeated promises could have not been made to set himself up and reinforce that fact that he was a liar. Rather his promises are more in sync with what he believed the AHCA intended.

That he should have covered every base is another matter.

Obama delayed to correct the mistake in the AHCA

Obama should have immediately corrected the situation when the news of the expulsions was announced as he finally did with an executive order to attempt to enforce the insurance companies to comply with the spirit of the Act. However he hoped to ride the storm without annoying his key partner - insurance companies. So a strangely tentative Obama, first half apologized, then fully apologized and finally issued the executive order.

Does the mistake matter?

In the final analysis it does not really matter as the AHCA is set up to provide better care at a cheaper and sometimes subsidized cost. If the insurance company does not reinstate his or her policy the consumer will rush to the site, which still has 4 months to run and really test the system. The Governors of Washington, Kentucky and Connecticut have just issued a report on the success of Obamacare in their States. They accepted full subsidy to increase Medicaid and they have recruited large numbers of uninsured. They state that the real reason they have been so successful is that all parties and institutions have pulled together to make this work. Presumably those States have patients who have been thrown off insurance schemes too. Recruitment is picking up especially in the States that have cooperated with the Obamacare provisions.

Ultimately, the jury is still out on whether acceptable recruitment will occur or not but already certain insurance companies are putting tentative adverts for the business. What is crucial for this whole exercise is whether the website will be functional on November 31^st as scheduled.

End of Story.

And that children is how that nasty lying Obama became the worst President in living memory with an act so dastardly that Watergate, the Iraq war deception, Iran Contra and Katrina pale by comparison. The underlying moral dear little ones is don’t mess with the status quo and let 45,000 people die as they chose not to have insurance. Also children we need to keep the bankruptcy court busy with their main business -medical bankruptcies or otherwise several jobs will be lost. As you read above some grown-ups just don’t understand!

AT THE END OF THE DAY 

Obama 

Obama needs to take the situation by the scruff of the neck and show some leadership. He needs to tell the Congress, Democrats included, that they must stop wasting their time debating Obamacare, as it is a fact of life. If any Act should come along to his desk modifying it he will veto it. He needs to send a message to the insurance companies that they need to get with the spirit of the law and honor his executive order.  If he is not in the web room every morning demanding that Sibelius show progress, he should be, as most importantly he needs to get his website working. Then he can spend his energy doing what he does best – campaign on the virtues of Obamacare. After all he won two elections on the strength of it.

This is crunch time for Obama. While history will never link him with Nixon, George W, Cheney and Reagan, he will have to answer as to why he had the audacity to run against Hillary if he did not have the stomach to follow through. There is a chasm between being an activist and being a politician. He chose to be the latter and in so doing axed a real politician, Hillary, who would not have his heartache and dilemmas. He owes it to those who had faith in him to deliver and not wimp away into oblivion.

Republicans

 This is crunch time too for the Republicans. They have risked all on destroying Obamacare. With their windfall they doubled down. They are simply the anti Obamacare party. The advantage of this approach is that they keep the party united. The Republicans can postpone their internal fight for another day. All their financial resources, which at the end of the day are far more than those of the Democrats, will be used to attack Obamacare, in an attempt to win the November midterm elections. The New York Times ran a story of the Republican “play book” how to suppress Obamacare and use it to retake the Senate and hold the House. 

What if Obamacare even half delivers?

What if Obamacare does not fail or does reasonably well? Do they carry on ad nauseam attacking the website and the insurance “betrayal”? Also there maybe a backlash in States where the Governors boycotted and obstructed Obamacare and millions remain uninsured. There are three States with Democratic Governors, Kentucky, Washington and Connecticut that have had spectacular responses. Also the 14 States that accepted Obamacare have had more than expected recruitment these past two weeks.

How does Obamacare attacks recruit the groups that oppose the GOP.

Also how does this focused policy of just attacking Obamacare help the Republicans with the youth, women, Hispanics, the Gays and African American demographic groups? Other than voter suppression they are doing nothing about this growing demographic threat to their future. Voter suppression of these groups is only going to alienate them further and make it almost impossible to win them back.

Obamacare is not the only string to the Democratic bow. They are promoting the issues of the aforementioned groups as well as promoting the well being of the ninety - nine percent. The economy is improving, the stock market is going gangbusters and the job numbers are generally better.

Jay H. Ell believes that the Republican preoccupation with Obamacare will, ultimately do them more harm them good. But not to worry in 50 years time they will be claiming it as their own as they do now with Social Security and Medicare.

OBAMA, ROUHANI, NETANYAHU AND NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

OBAMA, ROUHANI, NETANYAHU AND NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

Iran has burst its way back onto the international landscape. As a result of a complete reversal of policy by the incoming President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, there are currently negotiations going on between the Security Council five and Germany on the one hand and Iran on the other, on the cessation of Iran’s nuclear program Ostensibly the Iranian position represents an incredible change of heart brought about by Rouhani’s election.

Just a year earlier Iran’s Ahmadinejad had repeated his belligerent no compromise position at the United Nations coupled with threats to wipe Israel of the face of the earth. (Blog: Israel’s Netanyahu, Iran’s Ahmadinejad and America’s Obama, September, 2012). Now there is just sweetness and light emanating from Iran. Rouhani is even prepared to concede that the holocaust may just have been real!  Rouhani’s volte-face led to the current negotiations.

All this activity has resulted in speculation and conspiracy theories that Obama is about to sell out Israel and legitimize Iran’s nuclear weapon program.

THE FACTS ON IRAN

·      Iran are involved in a nuclear program that any reasonable person could infer was leading to the making of nuclear weaponry.

·      To date they have been defiant in proceeding with this process and this has lead to the imposition of devastating international sanctions.

·      In tandem with this program, they have sponsored international terrorism, been the paymasters of two terrorist organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, backed Syria in its genocide of its own peoples and threatened to eliminate the State of Israel.

·      President Rouhani is an insider and a former negotiator for the Nuclear Program, who has boasted in print, that while conducting nuclear talks on a previous occasion, he used the opportunity to advance Iran's nuclear program.

·      Rouhani and Ahmadinejad are both the mouthpieces of the Khomeini’s, Mullahs and military and merely reflective of the latter’s’ policies.

·      So if there is a total about face it is not between Rouhani and Ahmadinejad it is at the highest possible level and sanctioned by the Ayatollah Khomeini himself

·      It is thus not unreasonable to view Rouhani’s initiative with the deepest skeptism.

·      At the same time it would have been impossible to reject, out of hand, the offer made by Rouhani, without fully pursuing it. Hence for the first time in ages you have the Security Council ad idem.

 POSSIBLE RATIONALE FOR IRAN’S INITIATIVE

Financial.

Sanctions are biting deep and the Iranian economy is in an unimaginable shambles. According to a New York Times report of September 20, 2013 their currency situation is in dire straits and is bringing the Country to its knees. Oil sales that account for 80% of revenue are cut in half. What money reserves they have are tied up in banks and are unobtainable. They cannot repatriate money that is theirs or owing to them. The Government owes billions to contactors, municipalities and banks.

Also the currency has taken a dive. It has lost two thirds of its value towards the dollar. Inflation is said to be close to 30% and unemployment high. A large amount of transactions are taking place in illegal markets and at unfavorable terms to the Iranians.  The situation has noticeably worsened since July when the USA initiated even tougher sanctions against the rial.  White House Press Secretary Carney stated that the USA would be targeting foreign institutions that conduct or facilitate financial transactions with Iran. The US Treasury Department added that the aim was to make the rial unusable in international finance. Obama issued the Executive order that put all this into effect and in addition he gave financial institutions a month to dump their rials.

Political.

Political opposition in Iran is almost completely squashed.   Two major opposition parties were banned in 1983 and again 2010 two parties were banned and their leaders were imprisoned. This followed street protests at Ahmadinejad’s election where close on a 100 citizens were killed.  Protests have continued ever since. Several of these protests have been as a result of economic conditions and the fall of the rial. In 2012 hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to be met by riot police. Popular support has rallied around two leaders, Hussein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, who were put under House arrest. 

So it is fair to say the “natives are restless”. The Iranians have been emboldened by the Arab Spring and communication is aided by the Internet. There are websites and social media. While much is officially censored most have their own Internet connection and communicate.

So in addition to the financial instability there is political instability.

NETANYAHU’S POSITION.

Netanyahu has made it clear that any settlement with Iran is totally unacceptable. He has verbally abused all and sundry. He has maintained that the deal that is being negotiated between the six nations and Iran is “the best deal in the world for Iran”. Kerry has advised him that he should stick around and wait and see what the deal is. Kerry also told a Sunday Talk Show that the negotiators are “not stupid” and they “know” Rouhani’s record of negotiating while proceeding with nuclear advancement. The latter behavior of Rouhani is the reason Netanyahu argues that he should not be negotiated with at all.

Netanyahu’s own judgment is in question. A year ago he was ready to “take out” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when his own Security and Military establishment publicly repudiated him. While he has the support of the hawks, the Israeli opposition has criticized Netanyahu. An editorial in Haaertz attacked the Prime Minister for his handling of the Iran negotiation issue. His premature statements and his threats that he would not be bound by any agreement are not winning any friends. Granted Netanyahu has right-wingers, Avigdor Lieberman and Moshe Feiglin, to worry about but most of Israel’s premiers have had to be statesmen or women in order to navigate their survival in a hostile world. Netanyahu, to date, is in no danger of joining them.

There cannot be many that do not recognize Israel’s precarious position.  Israel is in the direct firing line of Iran and they are not going to be persuaded that Rouhani, a self confessed conman, is acting in good faith. However, Israel is not the only country with skin in this game. Besides USA, the European countries, especially France and Germany regard Iran as a real threat and more than half the Arab world lead by Saudi Arabia would like to take them out a well.

Can Netanyahu list the countries in the world that would comfortable knowing that Iran has a nuclear capability?

CHANCES OF AN AMERICAN SELL OUT

The chance of America selling out on Israel is zero. Not only is Israel their number one ally, the USA has led the sanctions battle against Iran. Then in case it is forgotten America and Iran have been at loggerheads since the hostage crisis in the 1970’s. America backed and helped Saddam Hussein’s Iraq against Iran in a long and bitter war.

Obama has made it quite clear, again and again, that this isn’t going to happen and other than the drivel from the right wing bloggers on the Internet there has been absolutely nothing to suggest anything else. (This commitment does not extend to doing Netanyahu’s bidding). If it was necessary, and obviously it was, Kerry issued yet another reassurance that Israel’s interests will be protected.

Even if the crazies, who have been warning that Obama is a Muslim plant waiting for a chance like this to destroy America and Israel, were right, Congress and the country would not let him.  Only Congress can lift the sanctions on Iran and support of Israel is about the only issue Congress agrees on. In this regard Kerry has his work cut out to persuade the Senate not to introduce new sanctions let alone relieve a few of those in place.

Finally, the International Atomic Agency has confirmed that they will verify any future deal with Iran.

CHANCES OF A SETTLEMENT

There are two sets of negotiations. One is between the “six” and the other is between the “six” and Iran. The six are not exactly ad idem.  As their composition might suggest some might be less stringent in their demands then others. France appears to be unrelenting.

Their negotiations do not really matter if Rouhani sticks to what he has said that he has drawn a line in the sand – Iran must be allowed to continue to enrich uranium. There has to be no possibility of that happening as this process is central to the production of nuclear weapons. If this report is accurate Rouhani cannot be serious! Kerry maintains that the delay in negotiations is to allow the Iranians to consult with their “leaders” and there is no split among the six negotiators. Contrary reports have identified France as being the hardliner.

They all meet again in a few days. Maybe Rouhani’s masters will realize that you cannot bluff with a pair of twos forever. Also the International Atomic Agency is due to make a report on Iran soon.

Either Rouhani ‘s masters change their stance or this whole exercise is dead in the water and the action will move back to Iran where the populace will continue to pay the price of their theocratic dictators’ prejudices and ambitions. The internal situation in Iran is what precipitated the new “accommodating” image of the theocracy in the first place.  The CNN correspondent reported that the failure to reach a deal produced anger and frustration in Teheran some of which was directed against France. However, it will boil down to a choice between Iran’s nuclear ambitions or their leaders’ decision to return to normalcy. Jay H. Ell’s guess is that the average Iranian is really not interested in whether Iran is a nuclear power or not.

One has to imagine that life in Iran will only get worse if there is no lifting of the sanctions but it is likewise difficult to imagine exactly how all this is going to play out in the next few months. However it plays out Iran have to settle eventually. Their very presence at the negotiating table and their abrupt change to their current conciliatory tone is indicative of the seriousness of the predicament they find themselves in.

ADVICE:

Jay H. Ell rarely has the temerity to offer these powerful operators advice. The negotiating six have to realize that they are not dealing with a sudden epiphany by Khomeini of what is right and good. Rather it is an act of desperate necessity and even survival. The six need not budge an inch.

OBAMACARE, ELECTIONS AND WOMEN

The Republicans have not retreated one inch from their main political thrust – namely “Attack Obamacare”. In fact the GOP is bereft of any positive initiative. Following upon an Obamacare 24 billion dollar closing down of the Government and nearly wrecking the Country’s credit rating they have now launched, a full pressure attack on the “disaster” that was the launch of Obamacare. With impressive false indignation, in endless congressional hearings, they are berating all and sundry, from technicians to the Health Care Secretary, and of course Obama, for the Administration’s failure to put into place the very project that they have spent 5 years trying to kill. (Blogs: Obamacare and Obamascare explained, September 28, 2013 and Obamacare: Hypocrisy. Lies and Facts, October 24, 2013).

The GOP obviously must believe that this is a winning strategy.

TWIN STATEGIES OF OBAMARE AND VOTER SUPPRESION

Perhaps it is a bit unfair to say the Republicans were doing nothing else. They were very busy on what has been interpreted as voter suppression legislation in State legislatures that they control.  It is incontrovertible that this legislation will make it more difficult to vote in elections. The poor, the minorities, the elderly and the full time students, who just also happen to be predominantly Democratic, will be impacted disproportionately.

The one advantage of the twin strategies of attack Obamacare and make it difficult for Democrats to vote, is that they are about the only issues that the Republican and the insurgent Tea Party agree on. Also the stumbles on the Obamacare launch and the Republican successful campaign of terrifying the electorate, that Obamacare will take away their health insurance has helped reinforce the Republicans’ denial that they can ignore all else So let Obama bleat about a comprehensive immigration bill and exhort a bipartisan consensus on the budget and debt ceiling they will not be sidetracked. Let Harry Reid focus on the civil rights of the LGBT and women but the Republicans are going to stick to scaring on Obamacare.

WELL ARE THE STRATEGIES WORKING?

At the moment what metrics can be used to measure the Republican tactics? Obama and his plan have a 40% acceptance rate. This could be encouraging to the GOP but that is where they have been throughout. The Republican approval rate is at 22% and that has decidedly dropped during the process. What encourages apparently are the daily reports of some insurance companies dropping their current plans and leaving patients to find new insurance. This scenario strikes fear into the hearts of any American since prior to Obamacare they need not have been accepted in any other plan, Sooner or later those “dropped” are going to find out that they now have to be accepted by law so this tactic will backfire.

Bur the Republicans still have to believe that this strategy is going to bring electoral success. So they soldier on although all the polls show that there has been a major shift to the Democrats bringing the seemingly impregnable Republican House of Representatives into play in 2014. In addition the Republican advantage in the Senate, as a result of the distribution of the midterm Senate races, according to the polls no longer is evident.

RECENT ELECTIONS

New Jersey – Booker and Chrisite

Well polls are polls but it’s the elections that count and there have only been a few of those of any national significance. The first resulted in the overwhelming victory, in the New Jersey Senate race by Democrat Corrie Booker. But Booker replaced a former Democratic Senator. Still this result can hardly been encouraging, as one would have for some movement towards the GOP if their strategy was working.

Also New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie was fearful enough to schedule the Senate election months ahead of his gubernatorial election lest the Democratic turn out for Booker would compromise him.  So Christie spent $25,000,000 of New Jersey’s money to hold his election on a different day to Booker.

That decision speaks volumes because Christie is the only Republican with any general appeal yet he was fearful of the Democratic base that would come out to vote for Booker and against him in the gubernatorial race. The Democrats took a tactical decision to give Christie a pass. Let him stick around and heighten the rift between the two wings of the GOP

Christie overwhelmingly won with bipartisan support and officially stamped himself as the Republican Establishment Candidate for 2016. However his veto on increasing the minimum wage in New Jersey was soundly beaten in a referendum. He also had to back down on his opposition to same sex marriage. So Christie is ultimately is betwixt and between and that is where the Democrats want him.

Virginia State Elections

Virginia would have to be the acid test of what the Republicans are gaining by this strategy. If the Republicans are serious of winning a national election they have to win States like Virginia. Three positions were contested in Virginia – Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. The Republicans currently held all of these positions. Much was at stake here. Not the least the fate of Obamacare at a state level. The outgoing Republican Governor had not accepted Federally funded Medicaid extension to the poor nor had he set up a State exchange for its citizens to enlist in Obamacare.

 The Republican candidates’ central slogan was that a vote for the Democrats was a vote for Obamacare. Thus it could not be argued that all politics are “local” when the Republican slate is vowing to continue, on the State level, the national Republican do or die position on Obamacare. Also the Democrat slate had plenty of other issues to talk about such as immigration, women’s rights, government shutdowns and bipartainship and the like.

In truth this election was a mirror image of the national debate and the rhetoric used by both sides. The high profile politicians that found their way to support the various candidates reinforced the importance of Virginia.

Candidates in Virginia

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Terry McCaulliff, collected tons of money and had Bill Clinton, Obama and Biden in toe. However, McCauliffe was extremely disliked in Virginia with a disapproval rating well above his approval rating. The Republicans had a Tea Party candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, who had Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Marc Rubio and Rand Paul in attendance.  (No Bush’s or Christie’s were in evidence).

If the differences between the gubernatorial candidates were stark they reached Saturday Night Live proportions in the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Republican E. W. Jackson believes inter alia that Obama’s Christianity is laughable, gays are perverted and non-Christians are “engaged in some sort of false religion”. Democrat Northam just stuck to the moderate bipartainship mantra of Obama so as to get “things done”.

The Republican in the race for the Attorney General’s office was Scott Obenshain. He had a “positive message” and family connections and plenty of money. He received support from Republicans who had crossed over the floor to support McCauliff according to the Washington Post. Obenshain was “realistic” and the guy that the Republicans hoped to salvage some credibility on - the establishment Republican that is.

Taking all factors into account the Republicans have naught for their comfort. McCauliffe delivered, Jackson was slaughtered and Obenshain scraped in by 500 votes and that election will be subject to a recount.

WOMAN VOTER SUPPRESSION

However, there was one fascinating piece of demographic data in the Virginian races. The democrats were ahead in all the demographics expected excepting for women and women’s issues vote where the point spread was higher than expected, especially among the unmarried. (The outgoing Virginian Republican Governor had backed a compulsory intravaginal ultrasound probe, in every case of abortion, regardless of the circumstances). The perception that the Republicans pay lip service to women’s rights is obviously more than just a perception.

Besides the usual issues of women’s health concerns, contraception and abortion another discriminatory problem cropped up - at the time of the election a major scandal relating to women voter suppression broke out in Texas.

The Texas legislature passed a voter suppression law. Essentially you now must have a governmental identification to vote. In addition that voter identity must correspond to the exact name you have on the Voter’s role. Now women as they get married and divorced have more differences on their documents than other demographic. Also women tend to alternate between using their maiden names as their middle or their last names. In two well-publicized incidents, a Judge and the Democratic candidate for Texas Governor were not allowed to cast ballots in a local election. Fully one third of women voters in Texas face this problem. Thus far the Republicans have been mum on this issue. They obviously believe that their voter suppression legislation is their only hope regardless of these unintended consequences.

If Virginia is anything to go by the female vote is going to become more and central in defining the future of the political landscape.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Republicans seem too far-gone to back off now even though their strategy is obviously not working. They are relying on their Hail Mary pass and just hoping against hope that Obamacare collapses by its own weight. So Obama better see to it that he does not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A concerted campaigning effort is on the way by Obama to educate on the obvious advantages of Obamacare, but all that will come to naught if the website does not work. If the website works are the Republicans ready for the backlash?  What is their plan B?

Also women’s rights are front and central and played a big part in the Virginia elections. The latter issue gets scant attention from the Republicans and Jay H. Ell believes this is going to become more and more central to the political debate.

Just one final thought and you heard it first here. Texas has added women to their list of those discriminated against. Texas has the highest percentage of uninsured, in the USA - 24%. Nearly 40% of Texans are Latinos and of those nearly 40% have no medical insurance.

Seems that the messages on Obamacare and women’s rights needs to get out. If it does Texas will go Democrat – that is if they do not secede from the USA first. 

MANDELA – A LETTER FROM PRISON and POSTSCRIPT

Nelson Mandela who was discharged from hospital, on September 1, after a three months stay, is still reported to be critical and unstable in his home Intensive Care Unit. While Mandela is still “hanging on” the world around him does not stop. On July 18 on his 95^th birthday, at the United Nations, once again Nelson Mandela Day was celebrated.  In October he added the Republican Leader Bob Dole Institute’s leadership’s prize to his unbelievable list of honors. Also swirling around this icon’s aura is the sad negativity of those who have continually exploited his image. Now the South African police are investigating fraud in one of his charities and South Africa is being treated to an unseemly battle, involving different members of his family, over his funeral and where he should be buried.

MANDELA  PRISON LETTER UP FOR AUCTION

The above achievements are not the only reason why Jay H. Ell is following up his all encompassing tribute to him a year ago, ( Blog: Mandela, The British Golf Open and Immortality, August  4, 2012).  The reason is that for the first time he has seen a letter written by him go on public auction. The letter is not about any earth shattering deliberations, nationally or internationally. It illustrates what Bill Clinton has described as, “… a heart so big and a humility so great….”.

The letter was written from the Victor Verster prison and dated August 21, 1989 from 1335/88, (his prison number), Nelson Mandela.  To orientate readers to that date, he had already spent 26 of his 27 years behind bars. The referral to his prison number was just to facilitate easier communication with him as at that stage he was no longer a prisoner in the true sense of the word. He was living in the vacated Warder’s home with a cook in attendance.

Mandela had been conducting high power negotiations that would lead to a peaceful transition from apartheid to a non - racial society. He was at peace and in total control. He was juggling many balls because on his release he would begin the really tough negotiations to set up a transition to a peaceful non racial South Africa. There was still a long way to go in his “Long Walk To Freedom”. He was also in contact with the oversea ANC leader Oliver Tambo.

In fact Mandela could have been released up to a decade earlier but release was not was it was all about. He had started this journey over a half a century earlier to create a society free for all its members. So when Mandela wrote this letter he had achieved the necessary breakthroughs to allow him to accept release 5 months later. He was well on his way to one of the most monumentous non - violent change of control of power in the world’s history. The bloodbaths all had predicted in South Africa with change were not going to occur.

THE LETTER

So in this heady environment, at a time when he was on track to achieve a life -time ideal that few visionaries have ever achieved, he responds, in length, to a letter from a nurse who had looked after him during his stay in a clinic in Cape Town for the treatment of tuberculosis. Firstly, he reassures her that he had not slighted her as he had not received a previous letter from her. He states that, “.. he would never fail to directly thank you for all that you did for me, nor would I ever  fail to respond to any of your letters, even when they say nothing about the champagne.” (The latter apparently is a reference to a party Mandela gave on leaving the clinic).

He then enquires about the health of the nurse’s children and refers, by name to 10 clinic employees who had sent letters to him for his birthday. Implicitly, he had answered all these letters. He asks about the health of a sick health provider and implores the nurse writer not to tell him that she did not return to work.

Mandela ends by telling the nurse he looks forward to seeing her soon and that she is very much in his thoughts. He signs as “Ex Patient M”.

So the man, who could arguably be the figure of the twentieth century is as concerned with the day to day activities of at least 12 of those that cared for him in an illness as he is with negotiations that are going to change South Africa and set an example for the world.

THE FEARS OF WHITE SOUTH AFRICA.

One of the issues swirling around Mandela’s imminent death is the fear of many whites of instability. A white extremist group, the Suidlanders, believe that there will be genocide of the whites. There is no rational basis for this fear. However it is fair to say that the refrain in South Africa has long been, “What is going to happen when Mandela goes?’’. (Blog: Exit Mandela: Cry the Beloved Country Part 2, December 20, 2012.)

Jay H Ell believes that Mandela by “hanging on” has prepared all for his departure. South Africa will be “ready” for his passing and that it will not create instability as his death has already been accepted. However this does not guarantee that the values of a non –racial, democratic, just and non -corrupt society will follow. 

POSTSCRIPT TO LEGACY

There is a responsibility to those who have been bequeathed the Mandela legacy that has been ignored by some. Not only are there are continued instances of corruption, thugs have also taken to the streets of Cape Town smashing and looting in an attempt to destabilise the Cape Province politically . 

These hooligans were incited by an ANC Youth Councillor Loyisa Nkhola and have been condemned by the ANC Youth Leader in the Western Cape. That is frankly not good enough as the issue of hundreds of miscreants looting and damaging property needs condemnation from the highest levels in the ANC. This particularly so that the Cape is the one Province that votes for Helen Zillie's Democratic Front and not for the ANC.  These violent actions were designed to hobble her administration. ANC Premier Zuma, recently, missed a golden opportunity to castigate ANC supporters by merely looking on. The ANC has to wake up to whom they are supposed to be and where they came from. The self same mileu that ushered them in can usher them out. They need to be reminded that there is a Constitutional Court that has been put in place to protect those very rights that Mandela fought for.

Perhaps all these "Counter - Revolutionaries" could all club together and purchase the letter that is being auctioned and learn the values that are needed to meet the daunting continuing challenges that South Africa’s “Rainbow Society” face and in so doing continue provide an example for the world.

The letter is expected to fetch several thousand dollars.