UPDATE: CRUZ’S COUP D’ETAT

Everyone wants to know how this stand down on the fiscal fight between the Republicans, on the one hand, and the President and the Democrats, on the other, is going to end. As Jay H. Ell indicated in his last blog, “Ted Cruz’s Cruzade”, October 4, 2013, the GOP were going to cave and each day their posturing was getting them further and further into disfavor. The question was and still is how this hostage situation was going to end.

WHY THIS MESS EXISTS

While both sides maintain that the last thing on earth they want is for the Government to shut down or the Government not to pay its debts, the Republicans precipitated the crises. If the Cruz lead Republicans had not intervened or threatened to intervene, two procedural fiscal motions in Congress would have passed.  One motion is to ratify the annual budget, which was the very budget the Republicans had proposed, and, the other is to ratify the Federal Government’s ability to borrow. These procedural motions also allow the US to maintain its position as the most powerful nation in the world to continue with business as usual. 

Just for the record the US is not bankrupt because it is in debt. The US assets way exceed its liabilities but like in all situations not being able to borrow on your credit card to pay you immediate debts result in devastating problems. The Republicans are prepared to spend on what they deem important

The Republicans, led by Ted Cruz, however saw political opportunities in both these votes. They added the rider to the budget ratification maintaining that they would not vote to ratify it unless the Government defunded Obamacare that the Republicans had already attempted to reverse 40 times. With regard to the raising of the Debt Ceiling, i.e. the ability of the US to borrow, which it has been doing of and on since Ronald Reagan, they produced a laundry list of demands that would in effect put all the policies in place that Romney would have proposed if he had been elected

REPUBLICAN COUP D’ETAT

So the very fact that crises exist is objectively and solely as a result of the Republicans’ behavior is incontestable. It is asinine to maintain that you are available to compromise on a routine budget Bill or a Bill to keep the Country from going into economic chaos. It is not a stretch to say that the Republicans are trying to execute a coup d’etat of the present government’s political agenda without an election. This they hope to achieve this by holding the President and Congress to ransom – either you reverse center piece Democratic legislation and introduce a host of Republican policies or we cause economic chaos.

Jay H. Ell does not want to upset the Republicans too much, because all his Republican friends are embarrassed by this turn of events, but all of this behavior is straight out of the Marxist/Leninist playbook.  Those guys used the Democratic process when it suited them and then did whatever else it took to attain their political order. Now of course if Jay H. Ell really wanted to be paranoid he would link all of this up to the gun lobby and their supporters who often connect their second amendment rights with veiled threats of using these weapons against a Government that went against the Constitution – whatever that means. 

SO THE DYSFUNCTIONAL BLUSTER GOES ON AS THE CLOCKS WINDS DOWN

* Daily inside stories are fed to the Press. Once again Boehner allegedly promises that he won’t let the country not pay its debts and two days later allegedly he won’t blink! Cruz believes the Republicans are “winning”. This he says a few days after Boehner maintains, “this isn’t some damn game”. McConnell and Paul caucus in front of an open microphone that they must say they want to negotiate even if they don’t want to, as that is what the public want to hear.

* Then the conventional wisdom is “Poor Boehner”, like he is some victim. Boehner is history whatever happens in this crisis. He must understand this type of thing happens in politics before he decided to make this his career. He only retained his Speakership by 3 votes and his situation has worsened. He has choice if he has to call an open vote then all this goes away. The opprobrium that the whole Republican Party is subject too over this issue will stop. Let him concentrate on the real fight and try wresting back control from the Tea Party.  Boehner needs to act if he wants any part of history.

·      Each day that passes only worsens the Republican position – 70% of the population blames the Republicans for the shut down. Seventeen House of Representatives seats that were reckoned to be safe in the Republican column are now considered marginal – if those were lost by the Republicans, the Democrats would win the House, an outcome that was not thought possible a month ago. The crucial Governor election in the Bellwether State of Virginia, the Democrat McAuliffe has turned a 5% deficit in the polls to a 12% lead. The Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell, in the Red State of Kentucky is ubelievaby behind in the polls.

·      In spite of the argument that no one was interested in Obamacare 10 million enquiries have been made to the Government health site. The only criticism is that the waits were to long on the site. Even these are being blamed on the shutdown.

·      In the teeth of all of this the poster child, Ted Cruz, appointed to lead the Republicans in this coup d’etat, by the unelected Heritage Foundation, Conservative Groups and the Koch Brothers to name a few, has said, “Look, I’m in favor of shutting down the government and not raising the debt ceiling, but let’s not kid ourselves. These are only half measures. If we are really serious about stopping Obamacare, we’ll destroy the planet. “

·      The markets are beginning to react. Initially, there was no response as the money meisters, presumably could not believe that Congress could be that stupid to push the economy to the brink. The Dow is down from its 15,700 high to below to below 14,900

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The real big creditors Japan and China have publicly told the US to get its financial act together

* Meanwhile Obama carries on campaigning. He has one message at the moment – Boehner allow Congress to vote on the issues. The reports are if Boehner allows a vote between 22 to 60 Republicans would join the Democrats and the procedural motions will pass.

WHAT’S IT IS REALLY ALL ABOUT AND WHERE WE ARE AT

This is really in an internal fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party with the fulcrum being Obamacare that they both despise. There has been a massive miscalculation by the Tea Party and the Republican Establishment for buying this bill of goods. The ploy has failed and neither Cruz, the Tea Party nor the Establishment has a Plan B or the remotest idea how to end this all other than “destroying the planet”.  The coup d’etat lead by Cruz is heading for disaster. The hope is that that it does not bring the country down in the process. However, in the final analysis Boehner can hang on so long and no longer before allowing an open vote. The problem is how - perhaps Obama will let off him the hook by giving him a call......