OBAMACARE: POLITICS, HYPOCRISY, LIES AND FACTS.

As Jay H. Ell has blogged on several occasions that the attacks on Obamacare has more to do with Obama and his Democratic Administration’s policies than Healthcare as such. (Blogs: Obamacare and Obamascare Explained, September 9, 2013 and Washington’s Fiscal Chaos Explained, October 16, 2013). The issues concern GOP internal politics as well. (Blog: The GOP Fight - The Gloves are Off, October 20, 2013). As will be explained the debate reached  new lows as the opponents to Obamacare became more and more desperate with reality being replaced by fantasy and hypocrisy. 

THE POLITICS

The Republicans have seized on what they consider a golden opportunity to continue to attack the Affordable Health Care Act, (AHCA) - this just when it looked as if they had exhausted every possible avenue to oppose it. The AHCA website, where the 40 million uninsured Americans were to enroll, has experienced some major technical problems. This situation is serving as the basis for continuing the four-year attack on the legislation.

The Republican argument that Obama had three and a half years to perfect the program is hollow when they have placed obstacles in the way throughout. These include a Presidential election, 10 months ago, where they made Obamacare the defining issue, 40 legislative attempts to reverse the act, multiple legal assaults culminating in a 5-4 Supreme Court decision that the AHCA was constitutional and the most recent disastrous tactic - closing the government and threatening the country’s financial foundations – all just to derail Obamacare. All these attacks focus on the ideological argument against the introduction of the AHCA. The sucking up of all the media attention with this debate meant that the dissemination of information of what the act actually entailed was neglected.

The attacks on Obamacare were used as the mantra to claim that Obama was a foreigner who wanted to introduce Socialism into the United States. It was also the only glue that held the Republican Party and its dominant Tea Party faction together. So rather than face the reality that there was a major philosophical split within the Party the establishment soldiered on and bought into the extremism that led to their humiliating defeat in the fiscal crisis. (Blog: Washington’s Fiscal Chaos Explained, October 16, 2013)

THE HYPOCRISY

Obama compromised on what finally became the AHCA. There were options such as a single payor or one Federally managed program for the uninsured. Instead he adopted a plan that had its genesis in the Heritage Foundation. - the very same Foundation that has masterminded the current anti Obamacare campaign with the appointed choirmaster being, Ted Cruz. When the then Republican Governor Romney introduced the plan in Massachusetts, the Heritage Foundation applauded the introduction of their free enterprise plan. The Heritage CEO, Tea Party Godfather, Joe DeMint, when endorsing Romney as the Republican Presidential Candidate, stated that one of his reasons for doing so was his adoption of Romneycare. 

When it became absolutely obvious that the Republicans financial brinkmanship for the defunding of Obamacare would fail they switched to postponing its introduction for a year so that citizenry "could become more acquainted with the details". 

Having failed with all these attempts they have now taken up their constituents’ woes that they could not register for the plan as the website was a farce!

The nation is now going to be exposed to Republican crocodile tears in endless hearings about the failure of the website. These same people, after nearly throwing the country into fiscal chaos in their desire to end Obamacare and had vowed to continue to fight to remove it, are now ostensibly worried about its mechanism to enroll members!

THE LIES

There were repeated assertions that the AHCA was socialized medicine and that the government was taking over “your” health care. - this in the teeth of the fact that the plans would be provided by competing private insurance companies and that those who presently had insurance coverage, if satisfied, could continue with it.

Michelle Bachmann maintained that AHCA " - would literally kill seniors, women and children"! Further she and others maintained that the Act contained Death Panels that would decide whether patients would live or die. This was an “interpretation” of the provision in the Act for the establishment of an independent committee of medical experts to establish “standards of care”.

Another common lie is that the Act has resulted in the raising of  insurance premiums of everyone else.
No meaningful evidence of this is provided and in fact is patently untrue. This latter lie is usually accompanied by the lie that employees have been let go as a result of Obamacare. In addition employees have had their hours reduced so that they are “part – time” and not entitled to benefits. Over the past year part – time employees have decreased and for the past 43 months there has been an increase in the number of jobs and the unemployment rate presently is at lowest since the recession at 7.2%,

One of the largest lies relate to the experience of other bureaucratic governmental health care systems being total failures and “nightmares”. Every comparative health care system whether it is in Europe, Scandinavia or Canada has central governmental control. All of them cover all their citizens and have higher positive health care indicators than the USA. Yet the percentage of Gross National Product spent on health care in these countries is half or less than the USA.  Even in the USA the government run Medicare and Veterans Medical system has far greater inclusive coverage and less administrative cost than the private insurance companies.

THE FACTS.

         *The website of Obamacare has major systemic problems. The administration needs to tell it as it is and if necessary delay the cut off date for registration. This may cause problems with insurance companies but surely these can be met as a successful enrolement benefits insurance companies as well.

·      The fact that the website is experiencing these problems is because the Republican controlled states have behaved in a fashion no reasonable person could have predicted. The AHCA allows each State to set up its own health care exchange. In return for so doing the Federal Government would pay for the expansion of the Medicaid program in that State thereby paying the premiums for those who could not afford to pay for insurance in the AHCA.  This involves a total of eight million souls. In addition each state would receive a payment for setting up its own exchange.

* Of the 50 states, 26 Republican Governors refused to set up their own exchanges. Fourteen states set up their own exchanges and 10 set up combined exchanges with the government.  This meant that the Government had to have a website that had to deal with 36 exchanges. It also meant that near on 8 million citizens would be left without Medicaid insurance so that their Republican controlled States could continue to use Obamacare as a weapon to fight the Obama administration.

Ironically, Texans whom Ted Cruz claims to represent has a total of 22.5% of its population uninsured. To make a political point he would be happy to keep them that way.

To date there have been 20 million “hits” to the Federal website and nearly a million “applications”. The latter have not necessarily bought insurance. The Administration has a goal of recruiting 7 million citizens to the AHCA by March 31, 2014. That means they have to sign 37,000 patients a day.

The most successful exchanges, not surprisingly, are State exchanges that have a limited number of citizens. Interestingly the most triumphant State in recruiting citizens is Kentucky that is profoundly Republican with their Senators being Rand Paul and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. The Republican Governor of Ohio is also one of the Republican Governors who bucked the line by maintaining that he could not face his maker if he failed in his responsibility to the 275,000 poor in Ohio who would now get Medicaid.

However, the most efficient State to date to insure its whole population is Massachusetts where Romneycare started. Romneycare is the same as Obamacare or the AHCA. Nearly a 100% of the State of Massachusetts citizens have insurance.

Crucial to the success of this plan is that young people sign up. There is no education of the latter as to the advantages of having insurance. Do they know that if they have any assets they will loose them all if they get injured and break a bone or have to have their appendix out? Do they know they can run into a debts of the order of $20,000 multiples? 

If they are unlucky and have an accident in a boat and have a multi system injury the bill can run into the $100,000’s. If they have premature twins and are not to poor to be on Medicaid they need to find $250,000 or go bankrupt. Remind the young that the most common cause to go bankrupt in the USA is health care costs.

Some Republicans have been actively arguing against the merits of the youth signing up.

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

·      Republicans have to realize that this issue for Obama is also intensely personal. He writes when his mother got cancer it pretty much drained all her resources. Obama maintains that his mother was the dominant figure in his formative years. She also taught him the values about the way he goes in the world of politics. His mother by the way was white.

·      Establishment Republicans should avoid the temptation to focus on the lost cause of Obamacare . Their real issue should be to take on the Tea Party who is destroying their Party.

·      Expect Democrats to join in Obama’s anger at the Website’s woes. Obviously they will be doing so for different reasons than the Republicans. They will be tearing their hair out this has happened after over a century of trying to get universal care for Americans.

·      If Republicans somehow manage to stop Obamacare thereby    preventing 40,000,000 persons from obtaining Health Insurance, do they believe that, they, finally, have achieved something?

·      For what it is worth Jay H. Ell believes that Obamacare is here to stay come hell or high water.

GOP FIGHT - THE GLOVES ARE OFF.

For the Republican establishment the merits of the tactic of holding the Government to ransom over ideological issues has been resolved. They followed the Tea Party approach in the recent fiscal battle and the result was a disaster. They reason the Tea Party approach has failed and the Establishment is going to go ahead with the traditional approach of the Republican Party - business centered free market enterprise with decreased regulation and unbridled capitalism. 

However, this assumption is based on the premise that the Tea Party is “fighting fair” and will allow themselves to be subject to Party Discipline and allow the Republican Party to send a clear focussed message.  The Tea Party does not accept the basic value system that Washington operates under. (Blog: Washington’s Fiscal Chaos Explained, October 16, 2013 ). The Tea Party will be more focussed in consolidating its take over of the Republican Party then sending a unified message in the fight against the Democrats. 

TEA PARTY DECLARE VICTORY

The Tea Party deny that the shut down, that cost at least 24 billion dollars, has shaken the faith in world markets about American financial leadership and stability and brought the Republican Party ratings to a record low of 25%, was an unmitigated calamity. They believe that their shutdown was a screaming success and that the Republican establishment abandoned them.  In addition they fail to realize that an opportunity was lost over those three weeks to attack the launching of Obamacare that was ridden with glitches.

In yet another unprecedented harangue, on the Senate floor, Ted Cruz attacked his fellow Republicans for selling out. “Just think how this might have ended if the Senate Republicans had stood behind their House colleagues”. Cruz maintained that Washington once again had failed to listen to the American People.

The Tea Party is in this for the long haul. Their supporters are ecstatic over Cruz who now has national recognition. The Tea Party supporters represent close on half the Republicans that vote in the Primaries and the demoralized establishment are in no state to take them on. They also have large financial resources behind them.

Ted Cruz has to be the Tea Party frontrunner for the Republican Presidential nomination and as things stand at the moment it is very difficult not to see him as the Republican nominee.

It is fair to say that the Tea Party’s assessment of the value of creating financial chaos as a political weapon differs markedly form the Republican establishment.

ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN WAKE UP TO REALITY

The Republican establishment went to the brink in attempting to appease their Tea Party faction. Now in this “take no prisoners” fight the Tea Party is still going to mount Primary challenges to all those who, after 16 days of wilting attack, finally voted to open the Government. Mitch McConnell, Republican leader in the Senate, who has filibustered over 400 times to prove his right wing metal, already faces a Primary challenge. Sarah Palin has rejoined the fray and has reinforced the threat to mount destructive Primary challenges.

Possible establishment Republican contenders to be the Presidential candidate have distanced themselves from the latest confrontation. Chris Christie, who has to be the establishment’s only hope, has more than intimated that the behavior of his Tea Party Republican colleagues is unacceptable. Jed Bush was even less subtle in his criticism; they follow veteran establishment figures such as Bob Dole who stated that Nixon and Reagan would not get the Republican nomination in today’s Republican Party.

Senator McCain has led the current establishment opposition to his Tea Party colleagues. He stated that the Senate and the American people had been subjected to the most shameful and agonizing odyssey by this fiscal showdown.

Some of those unelected institutions that control the GOP are having second thoughts about the Tea Party. Grover Norquist’s of the Americans for Tax Reform that makes every Republican legislator sign a pledge that they will not increase taxes stated that Cruz “slashed and burned and dragged Republicans across broken glass for no purpose”. 

The traditional business institutions, which support the Republicans, such as the Chamber of Commerce are wringing their hands in horror. The Tea party is not remotely geared to their interests. - In fact far less so than the Democratic Party.

The Republican Party always played the game according to the Washington rules and stuck to their ideology of supporting big business over “the workers”.  For decades the give and take between them and the Democrats allowed America to prosper and generally provide the highest standard of living in the world. This is no longer. The Tea Party has complicated the issue even more as all they support is “little” government that at the end of the day will help nobody.

So the Republicans and all their supporting institutions have to stop pandering to the right otherwise the Tea Party takeover will become total.

WHAT NOW?

Rapprochement between the different factions of the Republican Party seems out of the question. Ted Cruz announced that he does not work for the “Washington Party Bosses – he works for 26 million Texans”. This statement is barely accurate as his bosses are now the unelected institutions such as the Heritage Foundation and their unelected megalomaniac bosses like Joe DeMint.

The Primaries for the 2014 mid term elections assume a major importance for the Republicans. Also the behavior in Congress of the Republican establishment and leadership is pivotal. Jay H. Ell does not rate the establishment’s chances highly. In fact on June 18, 2013 he blogged, “The Republican Party is Dead”.

The Democrats have a chance to win the House of Representatives against all original expectations, as they have to get several million more votes than the Republicans to do so. It now seems possible.

If the Obama administration does not sort out their glitches in the launching of Obamacare that just might ameliorate the Republican pain and minimize the damage that the Republicans have inflicted on themselves.

Obama is less and less likely to be challenged by the Democratic Party left who are not at all happy with his middle of the road policies. The party is united, as they smell blood.

One piece of gratuitous advice for the Establishment Republicans – stop fighting Obamacare – it is a done deal. Concentrate on trying to at least being a strong presence in your Party so that when the diehards finally tire of the "do nothing" Tea Party shibboleths and smears they have something to return to. 

WASHINGTON’S FISCAL CHAOS EXPLAINED

Citizens who are still able to go to work everyday have to be bewildered by what is happening in Washington.

Ostensibly the issues appear to be pretty mundane. Congress has to pass a budget bill that involves paying for all the activities Congress has agreed upon. In addition in this stage of America’s history it has debts. The world’s financial powerhouse is currently paying interest on these debts. In fact it is a very low percentage as a result of America’s strength and stability.

So in the real world these procedural motions should be passed and allow America to proceed with its business internally and externally. This especially so in that the American Constitution is designed for compromise. But this is not the real world a whole new politics has descended upon Washington…...

So to explain the fiscal crises one has to realize that it has nothing to do with money and everything to do with changing the ideological direction of the Country by the minority that is controlling the Republican Party. (Blog: America at the Crossroads, 9/22/13).

THE GENESIS OF THIS DEBACLE AND THE NEW ORDER

In the beginning

While the roots of this ideological change have really been there since the 1960’s the impetus for a new order really began in earnest with the election of an African American as President. (To pretend that there is not a racial element to this thrust is to just to deny reality). The loss of the Presidential election was traumatic to all Republicans as that is where they perceive the real power to be.

Sometime back an earnest attempt, by unelected Republican institutions and unelected individuals with the assistance of vast sums of money, was made to change the political landscape. Their desire was first to control State legislatures. The latter would serve two functions: they would introduce social and fiscal legislation in opposition to the general trend in national Federal politics and they would gerrymander the electoral constituencies so that the Republicans would be all but be ensured a majority in the House of Representatives.

In the beginning all the megalomaniac unelected Republican institutions and megalomaniac individuals were in on it. Karl Rove of the establishment, “Bush’s Brain”, unashamedly exploited social issues that he was not remotely interested in to get the base to come out and vote for the “compassionate” conservative Bush.

The Republicans developed the above strategy to an art form. In addition, having taken cognizance of the changing demographics of the American electorate, the State legislatures have been turning out legislation that has the effect of making it harder for minorities to vote

In all of these endeavors they have had the sympathy of the Supreme Court who have ruled, thus far that unlimited money can be spent on elections and political activities, that there has been no voter suppression in the States and that the States are within their rights to delineate constituencies.

Now

So with Obama elected and reelected they had a crisis on their hands. Purist groups had emerged within the Republican Party. They were for radical social as well as fiscal change. They became known as the Tea Party. With safe Republican constituencies to deal with they could get their nominees elected as candidates. They could be as radical as they liked as their constituencies would not allow for a serious challenge from the Democrats.

Obamacare was a total enigma to this group. It was perceived as an extension of the socialist direction that the country was going. It was the epitome of all that was evil and satanic. It was attacked mercilessly and with great resources. It became the central focus that they would attack the established order.

So the procedural financial motions, that legitimized the spending and financing of the country in an orderly manner were to be held to ransom – either they defunded or neutered Obamacare or the country would grind to a financial halt and even financial ruin.

In order effect this policy two factors were needed. They had to change the way politics worked in Washington and they needed a leader to see that this change came about. They succeeded in the change as they found a leader, Ted Cruz, to direct it.

THE NEW POLITICS

*This whole episode thus heralded a new era in the way this country is governed.  While posturing, grandstanding and even filibustering have been part of the political process, this has always taken place in the belief that at the end of the day compromise between the legislative branches and the President would occur when it mattered. Chris Matthews has just published a book on two iconic figures of American politics – Democrat Speaker of the House Tipp O’Neill and Ron Reagan Republican President. The book is a timeous reminder of how the greatest protagonists of liberalism and conservatism managed to compromise and pass acceptable legislation to keep the government running. Reagan even agreed to tax increases, (as did Bush senior), when these were essential to the country.

Now anything goes and you stick to your guns. Forget about compromise. Forget about the outcomes of obstrctionism. 

(In the final analysis it was the poll numbers that drove the Republican establishment to defy the Tea party faction and seek compromise in the Senate. (Blogs; Ted’s Cruzade – The Political Outcome, 10/4/13 and Update: Cruz’s Coup D’etat, 10/8/13).

*The other major change is that the Republican Party for sometime has been controlled by unelected megalomaniacs and unelected institutions. At the forefront now is the Heritage Foundation who is calling the shots for the Tea Party. Their hand has been strengthened as they have found a charismatic elected megalomaniac, Ted Cruz, to act as the enforcer in Congress.  He will threaten those who do not toe the Heritage’s line that they will face a Primary fight.

CARRY ON CRUZ

Ted Cruz is a credible leader who has scant regard for the rules. Cruz filibustered; he broke from the caucus, and caucused against both Republican Congressional leaders. He started this whole raucous by linking payment of the Government’s bills to defunding Obamacare. Now with that concept thrashed it was just anything that could cause chaos and draw attention to his worldview. More significantly he ran around with the likes of Sarah Palin holding meetings with Confederate flags at War Memorials and even in font of the Whitehouse. At the latter meeting Cruz also stood by as the speaker made veiled threats of insurrection and told Obama to get off his knees and stop reading the Koran.  Cruz hurled more invective at a Tea Party Values forum and for his efforts was voted as the gathering’s nominee as Republican Presidential Candidate for 2016.

WHAT NOW?

The Tea Party cannot ultimately win. The demographics just won’t allow it. For the moment these antics are not helping them at all. While the Republican Party ratings are at the lowest ever so are the Tea Party’s.

However, regardless of the outcome of this fiscal fight, they are in this for the long haul. Joe DeMint the CEO of the Heritage Foundation and the architect of the latest strategy said he would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who believe in something than 50 who believe in nothing. Perhaps he sees himself as the Barry Goldwater of the 60’s that resulted in the Reagan in the 80’s.

Jay H. Ell believes that they live in a fantasy world and that the Republican establishment better get their act together before they are obliterated. They need to take them on as Obama and whoever follows will be only happy to run against them.

UPDATE: CRUZ’S COUP D’ETAT

Everyone wants to know how this stand down on the fiscal fight between the Republicans, on the one hand, and the President and the Democrats, on the other, is going to end. As Jay H. Ell indicated in his last blog, “Ted Cruz’s Cruzade”, October 4, 2013, the GOP were going to cave and each day their posturing was getting them further and further into disfavor. The question was and still is how this hostage situation was going to end.

WHY THIS MESS EXISTS

While both sides maintain that the last thing on earth they want is for the Government to shut down or the Government not to pay its debts, the Republicans precipitated the crises. If the Cruz lead Republicans had not intervened or threatened to intervene, two procedural fiscal motions in Congress would have passed.  One motion is to ratify the annual budget, which was the very budget the Republicans had proposed, and, the other is to ratify the Federal Government’s ability to borrow. These procedural motions also allow the US to maintain its position as the most powerful nation in the world to continue with business as usual. 

Just for the record the US is not bankrupt because it is in debt. The US assets way exceed its liabilities but like in all situations not being able to borrow on your credit card to pay you immediate debts result in devastating problems. The Republicans are prepared to spend on what they deem important

The Republicans, led by Ted Cruz, however saw political opportunities in both these votes. They added the rider to the budget ratification maintaining that they would not vote to ratify it unless the Government defunded Obamacare that the Republicans had already attempted to reverse 40 times. With regard to the raising of the Debt Ceiling, i.e. the ability of the US to borrow, which it has been doing of and on since Ronald Reagan, they produced a laundry list of demands that would in effect put all the policies in place that Romney would have proposed if he had been elected

REPUBLICAN COUP D’ETAT

So the very fact that crises exist is objectively and solely as a result of the Republicans’ behavior is incontestable. It is asinine to maintain that you are available to compromise on a routine budget Bill or a Bill to keep the Country from going into economic chaos. It is not a stretch to say that the Republicans are trying to execute a coup d’etat of the present government’s political agenda without an election. This they hope to achieve this by holding the President and Congress to ransom – either you reverse center piece Democratic legislation and introduce a host of Republican policies or we cause economic chaos.

Jay H. Ell does not want to upset the Republicans too much, because all his Republican friends are embarrassed by this turn of events, but all of this behavior is straight out of the Marxist/Leninist playbook.  Those guys used the Democratic process when it suited them and then did whatever else it took to attain their political order. Now of course if Jay H. Ell really wanted to be paranoid he would link all of this up to the gun lobby and their supporters who often connect their second amendment rights with veiled threats of using these weapons against a Government that went against the Constitution – whatever that means. 

SO THE DYSFUNCTIONAL BLUSTER GOES ON AS THE CLOCKS WINDS DOWN

* Daily inside stories are fed to the Press. Once again Boehner allegedly promises that he won’t let the country not pay its debts and two days later allegedly he won’t blink! Cruz believes the Republicans are “winning”. This he says a few days after Boehner maintains, “this isn’t some damn game”. McConnell and Paul caucus in front of an open microphone that they must say they want to negotiate even if they don’t want to, as that is what the public want to hear.

* Then the conventional wisdom is “Poor Boehner”, like he is some victim. Boehner is history whatever happens in this crisis. He must understand this type of thing happens in politics before he decided to make this his career. He only retained his Speakership by 3 votes and his situation has worsened. He has choice if he has to call an open vote then all this goes away. The opprobrium that the whole Republican Party is subject too over this issue will stop. Let him concentrate on the real fight and try wresting back control from the Tea Party.  Boehner needs to act if he wants any part of history.

·      Each day that passes only worsens the Republican position – 70% of the population blames the Republicans for the shut down. Seventeen House of Representatives seats that were reckoned to be safe in the Republican column are now considered marginal – if those were lost by the Republicans, the Democrats would win the House, an outcome that was not thought possible a month ago. The crucial Governor election in the Bellwether State of Virginia, the Democrat McAuliffe has turned a 5% deficit in the polls to a 12% lead. The Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell, in the Red State of Kentucky is ubelievaby behind in the polls.

·      In spite of the argument that no one was interested in Obamacare 10 million enquiries have been made to the Government health site. The only criticism is that the waits were to long on the site. Even these are being blamed on the shutdown.

·      In the teeth of all of this the poster child, Ted Cruz, appointed to lead the Republicans in this coup d’etat, by the unelected Heritage Foundation, Conservative Groups and the Koch Brothers to name a few, has said, “Look, I’m in favor of shutting down the government and not raising the debt ceiling, but let’s not kid ourselves. These are only half measures. If we are really serious about stopping Obamacare, we’ll destroy the planet. “

·      The markets are beginning to react. Initially, there was no response as the money meisters, presumably could not believe that Congress could be that stupid to push the economy to the brink. The Dow is down from its 15,700 high to below to below 14,900

.

The real big creditors Japan and China have publicly told the US to get its financial act together

* Meanwhile Obama carries on campaigning. He has one message at the moment – Boehner allow Congress to vote on the issues. The reports are if Boehner allows a vote between 22 to 60 Republicans would join the Democrats and the procedural motions will pass.

WHAT’S IT IS REALLY ALL ABOUT AND WHERE WE ARE AT

This is really in an internal fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party with the fulcrum being Obamacare that they both despise. There has been a massive miscalculation by the Tea Party and the Republican Establishment for buying this bill of goods. The ploy has failed and neither Cruz, the Tea Party nor the Establishment has a Plan B or the remotest idea how to end this all other than “destroying the planet”.  The coup d’etat lead by Cruz is heading for disaster. The hope is that that it does not bring the country down in the process. However, in the final analysis Boehner can hang on so long and no longer before allowing an open vote. The problem is how - perhaps Obama will let off him the hook by giving him a call......

TED'S CRUZADE- THE POLITICAL OUTCOME

TED CRUZ’S CRUZADE 

A phenomenon has emerged on the American Political Scene that has grabbed center stage in what is shaping up to be one the biggest changes in the American political fabric in history. (Blog: America at the Crossroads, September 22, 2013).

Ted Cruz has emerged as the undisputed leader of the new Republican Party. Sooner or later a coherent politician had to emerge to lead the Tea Party. Up till now the only possible one was Sarah Palin. She could have assumed the mantle but did not have the discipline or the desire to do what it takes to take on the job. For the rest there was a freak show including Caine, Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingridge- all of who were chanceless and parodies of themselves.

 CRUZ’S STELLAR RESUME

Cruz is charismatic, articulate, intelligent and persuasive. He graduated cum laude from Princeton and Harvard. He also was the winner of several national debating competitions and in 1992 won the US National Speaker of the Year. He was the first Hispanic appointed to being Solicitor General in Texas. He assisted the Bush legal team in the latter’s successful challenge to avoid a recount in Florida. Since then he has written 80 briefs in actions in the Supreme Court. He was the lead Counsel in the Supreme Court in crucial gun law cases, the constitutional challenge to the State of Texas’s redistribution of Congressional Districts and several other Conservative Cases. Several of the cases he litigated were won 5-4 in the Supreme Court. For his efforts he was recognized as one of the leading litigators in the USA and one of the 25 best Texan lawyers ever.

POLITICAL CAREER

He did not mess around with the usual political foreplay and went straight for the US Senate as his first objective. He beat out the sitting Republican Lieutenant Governor in the Republican Primary and then went onto win the Senate. His victory was regarded by the Washington Post as the “biggest upset” of the 2012 election. Needless to say it was full press operation from the Tea Party operatives that allowed this to happen in addition to the skills and talents of Cruz.

SENATE AND THEREAFTER

Cruz let nothing stand in his way to establish himself as the spokesman for the new Republican Party in Congress. He defied every tradition in the staid Senate that has hallowed traditions as to the behavior of its members. There was no way that he was going to pay his dues and be the junior senator for Texas. He would not listen to the party elders. He ignored them and dictated the agenda.

Even more amazing Cruz defied convention and worked against his own Party’s Speaker of the House to support his campaign to defund Obamacare or shut Government. Cruz, defied the Senate Hierarchy and indulged himself to a 21-hour filibuster to defund Obamacare or shut down the Government. In the whole process he humiliated Boehner and McConnell the elected Republican leaders of Congress. To add insult to injury Reince Priebus, the GOP National Chairman, told the Republicans members of Congress to follow Cruz!

So in less than a year Cruz became the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

CRUZ AND OBAMACARE AND THE CURRENT  SHUTDOWN

The Heritage Foundation and its CEO, Senator Joe De Mint – the former, the major unelected megalomaniac institution dictating Republican Party Policy and the latter the chief unelected megalomaniac doing the same – decided, cynically, to use Obamacare as the bludgeon to break the President and take control of the US Congress. (Blog Obamacare and Obamascare Explained, September 28, 2013).

The Heritage Foundation sponsored Ted Cruz to do a countrywide tour to whip up support amongst the grassroots for this project. The public would be educated as to the perils of Obamacare. The tactic would then be to link Government funding bills and or the creditworthiness of the Country to the ending of Obamacare. Cruz by skillfully using a minority in the House to see that his bidding was done and almost single handedly in the Senate, trashing every unwritten rule as to Senate traditional behavior, saw to it that this occurred.

CRUZ THE PERSONALITY

Television talk shows now almost always include someone or other that went to College with Cruz. It is difficult to know whether these have been pre -selected because they all have the same refrain. He was either admired or despised. It appears nothing has changed.

He has the charisma, without the histrionics, of a TV evangelical preacher. There is never the slightest trace of doubt in what he says and does. He is convincing and on occasion mesmerizing. It is his way or the highway.

In Jay H Ell’s experience he has seen only one politician like him. Hendrik Verwoerd, South African Premier in the 1960’s, who was the architect of the philosophical and practical aspects of apartheid, also had this messianic glow. He too never ever gave the slightest indication that he was anything but a hundred percent correct. He never budged an inch. Harold MacMillan, the British Premier of the time, stated that he was the only political figure he had dealings with that nothing you could say or do would have an impact of him. This is rare in a politician as by the very nature of politics compromise is the order of the day. Chris Matthews of MSNBC’S HARDBALL has likened him to Joe McCarthy the infamous Senator of the 50’s.

There is one behavior Cruz has that Verwoerd didn’t exhibit. Cruz can debate effectively and convincingly on a position that he has changed on within a short space of time. This occurred, for example in the recent Affordable Care Act debates. Initially, Cruz maintained that Obamacare was the essence of all that was wrong with America and should be defunded - period. Then when the motion was changed to defunding it for one year he adapted his arguments to meet the situation. With equal conviction he maintained that all the Republicans were after was leveling the playing field. Big Business had been allowed an additional year to comply while ordinary individuals were being discriminated against by having to comply by January 1, 2014. All he was asking for was equal treatment for the individuals to study their options!

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

·      Cruz has effectively and finally divided the Republican Party in two. You have to take sides now.

·      Each day the shutdown continues makes things worse for the Republicans as more and more examples of the impact of their intransigence emerge. The Republicans in Congress trying to fund individual popular projects gains some traction but it also creates anger among the groups that are not so favored.

·      Three quarters of the population do not believe in the Republican position.

·      The Republicans are also the Party of big business. This financial uncertainty is not helping big business and several donors from that quarter have withdrawn. Business pressure will build as the date to ratify the Debt Ceiling nears. Also the electorate will join business in protest as Social Security and Medicare, for example, will not be funded if the increase in the Debt Ceiling is not ratified.

·      There is no strategy to the Republicans’ move. It is based on firing up the base and the belief that Obama would cave as he has done before. There is no Plan B now that Obama has hung tough.

·      No way will Congress default on America’s debts. By October 14 either Boehner will cave and have an open vote or, if push really comes to shove, Obama will unilaterally increase the ceiling himself, with the country behind him. He need not fear impeachment as such a move will incense the country even more than the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

·      Obamacare is here to stay. In the first day and a half the Obamacare website received 6,000,000 inquiries in spite of the fact that there were long waits and many more serious hurdles to overcome.

·      Nobody is going to boycott Obamacare for ideological reasons. It either meets their needs or it does not. The time for abstract rhetoric is over and the pros and cons are forefront. The Republicans have lost the fight.

·      Cruz is under massive pressure behind the scenes and he is not budging. Even if he had the majority support in the Republican Caucus, which he has not, he has offended too many to be the elected leader.

·      Ted Cruz’s honeymoon is over. He was elected in Texas with 40% of the Hispanic vote so even his reelection to the Senate is going to be tougher. Not that Jay H. Ell believes that Cruz is looking to a long Senate career. Perhaps if things don’t pan as planned and he does not get the Republican nomination for Presidency, and even if he does, he might after 2016 look to join his mentor Joe DeMint at the Heritage Foundation. Together they can look for something else to go for broke on.

·      The reality is however much the Tea Party has gerrymandered the constituencies in States to create an imbalance in the House of Representatives - (In Pennsylvania for example, in Congressional elections, the Democrats received a 100,000 more votes than the Republicans yet the Republicans have 19 Congressional seats as compared to the Democrats 5)  - the national consensus of the electorate is in tune with the Democratic Party’s more distributive policy of America’s resources to all its peoples than the Republican policy of “trickle down” economics.

·      Meanwhile as all this goes on Obama carries on campaigning to the nation – campaigning being the one area that he has no peer.

·      The Republican Party has got to decide what they are going to be in the third millennium.

·      Anybody seriously believe that Hillary won’t be President in 2016?