PUTIN CAVES ON SYRIA

There is endless punditry over the recent events relating to Syria. Most are critical of Obama’s role in the ongoing saga. Some commentators state that Putin has outmaneuvered him. - Putin should get Obama’s Nobel Peace prize and on and on. Why this bizarre interpretation is the consensus of the pundits is beyond Jay H. Ell’s comprehension.

The situation seems straightforward. Obama makes up his mind, rightly or wrongly, that he is going to bomb Syria and Putin and Assad almost immediately admit the existence of Assad’s chemical arsenal and are ready to give it up if Obama does not strike. Putin also then argues that he is on the side of the angels and foolhardily tries to campaign in the USA against Obama.

Rather than weaken the USA in world politics Jay H. Ell believes that Putin’s reaction has strengthened it aS well as Obama’s within the USA.

 CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING FACTS AND WHERE THEY LEAD.

*Obama announces he is going to bomb Syria. Although he wants Congress’s support his Secretary of State John Kerry makes it quite clear that Obama has the right to go ahead with or without Congresses blessings. Obama states that Syria had crossed the red line in the sand – not only his red line incidentally but that of the whole world community. Chemical weapons have been considered barbaric since World War 1. Even Hitler and Stalin did not use them in open warfare. Obama really has been committed since it has become obvious that Assad used chemical weapons.

*Within days of Obama announcing his plan of action, Putin, who had been openly siding with Assad and providing him with arms and advisors drops his all out support of Assad. He calls for bilateral action with the USA, to whom he had been openly antagonistic towards on the Syrian and every other possible question. Within the space of two days Putin says he is party to an ultimatum that either Syria gives up all its chemical weapons or face the music. Putin is ready to go to UNO Security Council on the issue. Syria is given one week to produce a full inventory of its weapons!

*The whole purpose of this volte farce, Putin explains in an unprecedented op-ed in the New York Times, is that he is a man of peace and that it is warmongering to be bombing the Syrians. So the Russian leader, who has vetoed every possible attempt to involve the Security Council in this Syrian atrocity, is now ostensibly doing all he can to resolve it with the aid of the Security Council short of force.

*Also there is no way Putin could have made these moves without the collusion from Assad otherwise he could be made to look ridiculous after all his grandstanding.

*The inescapable conclusion is that Putin and Assad will do anything to avoid the USA bombing Syria. Kerry sensing this fear belabored the point that force was still on the table.

OBAMA AND PUTIN NOW

Obama conditionally and cautiously welcomed Putin’s moves. He is of the hook. It is now Putin that has to deliver and Obama now knows that Syria and Russia are terrified of air strikes. Also Putin has bolstered Obama’s position in the USA where sentiment was leaning towards no foreign involvement anywhere or anytime. Not only has Obama got the deal force is still on the table if plans go awry.

If Obama were to have to opt now for an air strike he would have the political advantage to be answering Putin’s op-ed in the New York Times. Then if Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John McCain and the like want to ally themselves with Putin so be it. Putin is recognized for the thug he is in the States. He is a relic of the Cold War who cannot come to terms with the outcome of the collapse of Communism and the USSR. He has been constantly in the news here for his backing of Iran and Syria, his refusal to allow Americans to adopt Russian orphan babies, his protection of American “traitor” Snowden, his attitude towards gays and his locking up of dissidents.

Obama will be recognized as the only international leader to act on humanitarian principle and to back an international resolution against chemical warfare. The rest have either bailed out or their electorate wouldn’t allow punishing the Syrians. Maybe he did deserve that Nobel Peace Prize!

Incidentally no one is happier than Netanyahu at this outcome and his undisguised glee when appearing with Kerry at a combined Press Conference was there for all to see.

WHY?

Putin must have a ton of technology, weaponry, advisors and financial infrastructure that would be vulnerable to a USA air strike to have backed down as he did. If this is indeed so then the Iran, Syrian, Hezbollah, Hamas and Russian axis is pretty brittle. Putin obviously not want to see what he has established in Syria go up in smoke. So he took the lead in selling the diplomatic deal in the hope that that his protégé, Assad, will still beat the rebels without chemical weapons. In all probability however the Syrian war will drag on much like the Iraqi one has.

Also Putin’s miserable empire is highly dependent on Syria being intact. If Syria goes, Iran is weakened and with them Hezbollah and Hamas as well. This is his area of influence and then maybe, even worse for him Kerry/Obama may get something going in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine.

So Putin and Assad decided to cut their losses. The USA could have done to Syria what they did to Kosovo or at least thrown Assad’s administrative and military infrastructure into a shambles. And the reason they caved was Obama’s threat of force. Certainly not because Putin suddenly developed into a statesman who grabbed center stage in order to lead the world to a better place