OBAMA AND THE “NEW” NULLIFYING POLITICS.

America has moved into a “new” political era. Gone is the give and take of political compromise and in is the policy of confrontation. There are two principle factors that contribute to this. Firstly, the Republican Party is in total disarray, (Blogs: The Republican Party is Dead and GOP’s Civil War Sabotages Obama Talks), and secondly Obama has responded by keeping his Presidency in continual campaign mode as opposed to creating legislation.

HISTORY

Before continuing, Jay H. Ell needs to make it clear that the Democrats were not always on the side of the angels. As anyone will tell you Abe Lincoln, (Blog: Spielberg’s Lincoln), was a Republican and Lincoln’s problem was the Southern Democrats. The latter had been the major opposition to equality till relatively recently. The Republican Eisenhower had big problems with the Southern Democratic Dixiecrats with his Civil Rights Bill in the 1950’s. It was Eisenhower who took on the Democratic Arkansas Governor’s defiance of the desegregation of Little Rock’s Central High School. Lyndon Johnson also recognized that by introducing Kennedy’s civil rights agenda he would be sacrificing Democratic control of the South.

The irony of all of this is that the Southern Republicans rather than continue with the Civil Rights agenda, which had inadvertently put them into power; in order to keep winning elections took on the Southern Democratic agenda of discrimination. The Democrats, to their credit, got with the program and became the guardians of equality.

So in the 70’s there was a role reversal in the South. The Republicans took on the winning formula of denying rights and advancement of African Americans. They could win with the South as Nixon, Reagan and the Bushes showed.

NEW REALITY

The demographics of the country have changed. Not only is the African American vote going exclusively to the Democrats, (Eisenhower got 40% of them), the numbers registered to vote have increased dramatically. Also the Latinos are veering more and more to the Democrats. In addition the Republican agenda has resulted in them loosing more and more of the women, gay and youth vote. As Bill O’Reilly of Fox said this, "used to be a white man’s country”.

NULLIFICATION

The response of the new Tea Party Republican Party has been to go into denial and move even more to the right. Their approach is to get the minority to triumph. They will obliterate the views of the majority one way or another. This is the policy of nullification that was the tactic of the Confederate States. The States nullify Federal law. This is being done now in the field of the social agenda such as abortion and medical care by refusing to effect Obamacare.  They also decrease the Welfare agenda, spend less on education and on Women’s Health. They have their own gun laws and immigration policies. However the most significant move by the Tea Party dominated GOP has been to limit the vote of the minorities by decreasing opportunities to vote, making registration and voting more and more and onerous. In addition in the States that they control the Districts have been delimitated to ensure safe Republican seats.

Nullification takes place on a Federal level as well. It is the stated policy of the leader of the Republic controlled House of Representatives that their objective is to reverse legislation not to create it. Hence they have passed less than 20 laws in this Congressional Term and have attempted to reverse Obamacare 40 times. In the Senate where the Republications are in the minority they have filibustered 420 times, breaking all records in this field of endeavor.

FISCAL EFFECTS OF NULLIFICATION

The effect of this behavior has been to limit the impact of Obama’s agenda. Also it has had a profound fiscal impact. With several budgets not seeing the light of day several government programs from parks, museums, welfare programs such as food stamps, unemployment benefits, meals at schools, federal watch dog programs, such as the environmental agency and on and on, have all been cut.

If this group had its way they would be no taxation at all. (Presumably their salaries would come from pay offs and bribes!) No taxation of the rich has become their holy grail. The philosophical argument being trickle down economics will create growth. This theory has no basis in fact. Eisenhower stimulated the economy by building infrastructure, creating jobs and increasing the top income tax bracket to 90%. Obama is crying for money to build the infrastructure, create jobs and increase the tax on those earning over $250,000 to 38%. How one can argue that trickle down economics works when the multiple between what a CEO earns versus an average worker is at a historic high of 230? The accepted multiple in the past was 20 times.

POLITICAL EFFECTS OF NULLIFICATION

The new GOP then cutely maintains that Obama is doing nothing about the economy when they are blocking every attempt he is making. Politically they see this playing out as Obama being blamed for doing nothing about the economy and hoping the electorate will forget they wouldn’t let him do anything.

To the poor, who now maintain that the system is rigged against them and that they cannot advance beyond an age old minimum wage, the policy is to belittle them and shame them linking poverty to inertia and laziness. They are Romney’s 47% relying on Government handouts with no ambition. To those who claim that they cannot come out on 2 fulltime jobs on minimum wage the Fox commentators literally laugh at them. Minimum wages are entry wages. You are not supposed to feel comfortable. Move on. It is your fault if you are stuck there.

So the GOP is tied into this narrative. They are even set to close the government for the first time since 1996 when Gingrich by this action hastened his own demise and made Cinton look even more Presidential. Good luck to the Chris Christies of the party who are trying to fight it.

The new GOP are just hoping that this will all come together and that the disappointingly slow economic recovery will be blamed on Obama and whoever they elect to run will just run on that you have never had it so bad.

THE COUNTER STRATEGY AND THE FUTURE

Obama’s counter to all of this is to go onto the campaign trail and sell his agenda. His job, fiscal, economic, health, immigration and social policies all receive the full treatment.  Although he has been at this for 10 years he has not lost his zest for doing what he does best. Also the hordes and the throngs who pitch up to hear him have not lost their exuberance at hearing his rhetoric. He belabors the fact that the Republicans won’t cooperate. He announces compromises that are the Republican knee jerkly reject. Meantime electioneering continues with his powerful grass roots organization in an attempt to hang onto the Senate and win the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterm elections If he doesn’t win the 2014 congressional elections he will just carry on as before.

HILLARY AND THE LEGACY

Obama has enough sense of history to know that his and Hillary’s agenda is exactly the same and to look at a sixteen year transition period rather than an eight year span. Short of another Obama, Hillary is a certainty to win in 2016. In the interim the Republican Party will tear itself to pieces in another bruising Primary. There is Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Mark Rubrio, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jed Bush, Peter King and TBA all ready to run. While they chew each other up and use up tons and tons of money in the process, Hillary will be collecting more and more money and be looking more and more Presidential. Although she hasn’t announced there are already millions in a Political Action Committee supporting her that have employed key Obama strategists to mastermind her campaign. There is an unprecedented groundswell of so many constituencies ready to back her. The women of all parties are screaming for the first woman President. And there is Bill a living American icon. Obama has gone out of his way to all but endorse her appearing with her on Sixty Minutes singing her praises to the skies. The 2016 Presidential election is looking more like a coronation than a contest.

So if it takes 16 years to initiate distributive justice in the USA and stop this culture of greed so be it. Scalia and Kennedy cannot live forever and the Supreme Court will take on an entirely different complexion.

In the meantime, notwithstanding all the new GOP electoral shanagans and the fact the electoral map favors the Republicans in 2014, the Democrats could control both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This will not knock nullification out just yet so only a limited amount could be achieved. Also John McCain is resuming his old maverick role and is openly attacking this Republican behavior. (He has obviously not running again). So who knows there maybe real Government after 2014?

The Republicans cannot survive on nullification. They cannot control the USA with a minority of voters. This demographic situation can only worsen and in 2016 this will be shown in stark terms. Out of the ashes hopefully a coherent policy will emerge. Then this new political reality will go back to the old and instead of gross malfunction we will have just have the ordinary old dysfunction in politics.