PUTIN PUT IN HIS PLACE

As Jay H. Ell has blogged Russia is staking her claim as a world power by being on the opposite of everything -whether this be Iran, Syria, Civil Liberties, extradition of Edward Snowden or whatever. When one says Russia one means Putin. For whatever reason Putin fancies himself as a wheeler- dealer on the world stage. In fact he is a bit player at present and his KGB bullying tactics are at the end of the day not going to get him far.

It is clear that Putin is taking Russia back to the dark ages. His show trials of dissidents and his general lack of respect for democratic standards are there for all to see. His recent belittling of the LGBT persons, the baiting of whom, is a sanctioned sport in Russia, was recently extended onto the LBGT persons of the world. Putin maintained that "these" people were not welcome in Russia where they are prosecuted - all this on the eve of the Winter Olympics when Russia will play host to the world.

SNOWDEN AND OBAMA

Then there is the issue of Wistleblower /Traitor Edward Snowden. In the grand scheme of things Edward Snowden is a nonentity. Obama has been grandstanding about Snowden urging that he should be returned to the USA for trial. This is in contradiction to earlier statements that Snowden was “not that important”. Really he is not that important, but that is not the issue in regard to international extradition. Snowden divulged activities of the National Security Association’s Surveilance Activities and has been formally charged on a host of Federal Crimes.

However, Snowden’s importance is beside the point. America made a very legitimate plea for extradition and that fighter for freedom Putin refused it. He made no attempt to explain why he did this and he gave Snowden amnesty for only a year presumably so he can start playing more games with Obama in a years time. So basically he was telling America that he is the boss. He is not going to be told what to do by them. Once again he firmly displayed his in your face stance towards America.

Obama is an expert at handling game players of this nature as has been illustrated with Netanyahu. He told Putin he was canceling his long planned visit to Russia. This meeting had been floated as a crucial getting together of the two countries who were central to solving the world’s problems. America needed Russia’s cooperation so they would have to swallow the insults Putin gambled. (Putin had great success with George W. Bush who carried on the facade that Russia was still one of the two that mattered).

In addition to nixing this summit, lines were floated by the Obama administration, that America should pull out of the Winter Olympic Games – a prestige event that Putin has personally invested political capitol galore to show that the Russian giant is re emerging. Obama’s official explanation as to why he wasn’t meeting Putin included more than a hint that he Putin, was not that important, if he was not going to get serious about getting rid of nuclear piles and discussing human rights, for example.

PUTIN”S POSITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

Putin is regarded as a despot by most of the democracies. His homophobic utterings are precipitating an international call for a boycott of the Olympic games. His influence extends to a few countries in the Middle East that are also subject to world condemnation. Nearly all the countries that made up the USSR have either joined his arch cold war enemy NATO or want to join them. He has no vassal states in Africa, Asia or South America that are dependent on him for handouts or to lead them to Communism. He is pretty isolated.

In fact one of the few factors that could give him status is Obama talking to him one on one. His ongoing game playing has lead Obama to withdraw.

WHAT NOW?

*The Olympic Games will be accompanied by more protests internally and externally and there will be no pictures of him and Obama snuggling up to each other cheering their teams on. In short the Olympic games will not reestablish Russia as a World Power.

*Russia will face more internal dissent, Putin will be seen to more repressive.

*Behind the scenes Russia will negotiate on matters such as nuclear stock piling.

*Internationally Russia will be seen to more and more obstructionist with their support of Iran, Syria and North Korea.

*When the year is up Obama would be well advised to not make Snowden a number one priority and give Putin a renewed sense of importance. Forget about Snowden.

*Russia will gradually continue to establish itself as a second level world player behind the USA and China.

*The most interesting issue that might emerge is whether Putin can maintain his control of Russia. The pattern that seems to be emerging in the countries that have had revolutions overthrowing totalitarian regimes is that the replacement regimes slip into despotism themselves. As Marc Anthony might have said, “So let it be with Russia”.

*The response to the new despotism seems to be another uprising by those who initiated the first one. The outcome then depends on who has the guns. Somehow Jay H. Ell cannot believe that the Russians went through what they went through to put the KGB back in power because that is where they are right now. Time will tell whether the Russians will buy this situation and allow this megalomaniac free reign of their future. It will then all depend on the military.

GOP FEAR OF CLINTON 2016 TURNS TO PANIC

The fact that Hillary Clinton is a shoo in for the 2016 Presidential election, with all its political and social implications, has turned fear into panic in the Republican ranks. In some ways Hillary is stronger than she was in 2008 having completed 8 years of representing the USA in an apolitical cabinet position. She looks Presidential and her appeal is even broader than 2008.

Jay H Ell has blogged about the Republican response to Hillary’s candidacy previously. (Obama and the “New” Nullifying Politics, Stopping Clinton in 2016 starts at Benghazi and Carry on Benghazi: Stop Hillary 2016 Part 2). As the date is now August 2013 one wonders when it will reach fever pitch hysteria. Then it will go into status irreversible fever pitch hysteria. But for now it just good old fashioned irrational panic. This has manifested in an out and attack by Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, (RNC), on certain of the media planning to do biographies of Hillary Clinton.

HILLARY

Hillary Clinton is not just any old anybody. She is Hillary Rodham Clinton. While she is inextricably bound to Bill Clinton in many ways she is a remarkable persona in her own right. (Her bond with Bill does her no harm, in fact a massive good, but that is not the issue at hand at the moment.) Hillary has a political career of her own. Staring off as a Republican she was an activist from the word go. She assisted counsel in the Nixon impeachment hearings, was actively involved in endless projects as first lady of Arkansas and the USA, Senator for New York where she earned the highest praise for hard work and dedication from the doyen of the Senate, Robert Byrd, and most recently was considered the most industrious USA Secretary of State in history.

In short when compared with the nonentities that she may have to run against in the 2016 Presidential Election, she is in another league.

TRADITONAL MEDIA IN ALL OF THIS

The traditional media is now, for practical purposes, television, (The New York Times is a holdout as even the historic Washington Post has become a memorabilia collection item for George Bizos of Amazon). Television is still hanging in there as it is more comfortably able to connect with the internet and social media and still be a significant player.

The television players are unashamedly concerned with ratings. Regardless of their value system it is, at the end of the day, all about selling soap. Thank heavens everyone needs soap so that to a certain extent television stations can still punt one or other political philosophy. However they all maintain that they are about “pursuing the truth”.

In the television political world there are three major players. These are FOX, MSNBC and CNN. The latter has a national and international following. While all purport to be balanced, Fox is the mouthpiece of the Republican Party and one of the unelected institutions that are in fact running the Party. MSNBC have endless programs with a pro Democratic Party bent. CNN, notwithstanding Republican smears, is the one channel that is attempting to steer a middle road. CNN have a massive infrastructure and are internationally recognized as the news program of choice. (This does not necessarily translate into ratings at home). CNN are heavily involved in organizing debates in the Primaries and between Presidential Candidates.

By and large the media to date have vigorously defended one another when anyone of their ilk have their freedoms challenged 

POLITICS OF FREEDOM OF THE PRESS

These players and the media in general all believe fervently in the freedom of the press. This value is time honored in the USA to the extent that it is enshrined in the Constitution as Freedom of Speech. There are Supreme Court decisions, almost reductio absurdio, upholding this value. This includes the right, to burn the flag, to wear obscene t shirts, utter the most inflammatory speech, purvey pornography and comment on the merits of judicial proceedings that obviously will have to impact on the minds of those deciding the outcome of a trial.

This is not really a Party Political issue but one or other Party invariably attacks the other for not truly honoring the Freedom concept. In the last election for example, the same Reince Priebus, the RNC Chairman, attacked Obama for changing the American way of life, It was Romney that would uphold Liberty and Freedom.

Not really a party political issue till now that is.

RNC’S PRIEBUS'S  RANT AGAINST THE MEDIA

Now MSNBC and CNN are working on biographies of Hillary, who has not as yet announced her candidacy for Presidency. The apparent scheduling of the pieces is in a year. Priebus went ballistic and stated if these programs were not canned the RNC would not allow any of its candidates to participate in any debates organized by these organizations. All this was giving Hillary an unfair advantage. CNN and MSNBC were given a week to stop production.

The media have also focused disproportionately on certain Republicans. Time Covers and other media have, for example, recently, repeatedly, featured Chris Christie and Tom Cruz, who are two of the Republicans fighting desperately to be the voice of the Party. Surely the other Republican dignitaries who are hoping to be Presidential Candidates have a right to complain? Come on Reince Priebus surely you have a responsibility to see to it that all your luminaries receive equal exposure or you will end up with the Republican nominee being the media choice and not your Party’s choice!

Also the GOP establishment attacking a Hillary movie is hypocritical in the extreme. In 2008 the Federal Electoral Commission banned a hate movie about Hillary made by one of the GOP paymasters, Citizen United. The reason they banned it was that they did not deem it a bona fide movie. It had been financed by electoral contributions and therefore was electioneering. It was against a provision in the Electoral Act. Needless to say the Supreme Court, by 5 – 4, declared that that provision of the Electoral Act was unconstitutional and spending as much money as you like on whatever you liked in elections was also Freedom of Speech! So apparently knowingly bad movies on Hillary are ok at election time but not those you have no control over.

PRIEBUS ON REPUBLICANS IN DEBATES

Incidentally, in their post election autopsy one of the RNC’S recommendations was to cut down the number of debates. The problem with the debates is that we learned too much about the Republican candidates. Romney was a hypocrite outsourcing jobs, Santorum was against women using contraception, Cain was crazy, Trump was a chump, Perry couldn’t remember which departments he was going to close down when elected, Gingrich confirmed his inability to be a Presidential candidate, to enumerate just a few of the gaffes. It is thus not a bad idea to hide all your candidates from public view because the less the electorate knows about them the better.

The ante was upped even further when Fox applauded Priebus’s decision who then pushed his media policy one notch higher, stating the RNC must stand up to the networks who do not promote Republican candidates. The way Priebus is going he must be the current Republican frontrunner for the nomination.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

There is little doubt that CNN and MSNBC will not take any notice of Priebus who has merely given Hillary even more publicity and conceded that the RNC are terrified of her. MSNBC have already said that this was a decision of the entertainment division of their company not the political one. (Hillary obviously has the potential to draw a large viewership and thus garner adverts). CNN and MSNBC must be rather pleased with the free publicity their productions are getting.

NBC, the parent company of MSNBC, have further elaborated on the project. They have in the works a four part mini series of the life of Hillary with Diane Lane playing the part of Hillary. CNN are preparing a documentary. Ironically, Hillary needs this all like a hole in the head. She has enough recognition and who knows how these television pieces will all pan out.

There is also little doubt that Reince Priebus will carry out his threat, on August 14, to pass a motion forbidding Republican candidates from participating in debates organized by CNN and NBC/MSNBC

So this will all escalate and it is obviously a no win situation for the Republicans. What Priebus forgets that regardless of whom the media may politically lean to they want viewership. However, obvious it is that one candidate is ahead they work hard at spinning  that the encounter is close. All of media in the last election, to the last minute, ran stories stating that the Romney – Obama race was too close to call. This when it was patently obvious that Obama would win in a landslide.

The Republicans cannot win just talking to FOX news and Rush Limbaugh. How they get out of this mess will be fascinating to watch. One thing is for sure when Hillary announces, and Jay H Ell’s guess is that will be after the 2014 midterm elections, hysteria will set in.

For what it is worth Jay H. Ell’s advice would be for the Republicans to develop a political agenda rather than persisting with nullifying everything so nothing ever gets done and then wailing that the fight is not fair because they haven’t got a candidate to match Hillary. 

OBAMA AND THE “NEW” NULLIFYING POLITICS.

America has moved into a “new” political era. Gone is the give and take of political compromise and in is the policy of confrontation. There are two principle factors that contribute to this. Firstly, the Republican Party is in total disarray, (Blogs: The Republican Party is Dead and GOP’s Civil War Sabotages Obama Talks), and secondly Obama has responded by keeping his Presidency in continual campaign mode as opposed to creating legislation.

HISTORY

Before continuing, Jay H. Ell needs to make it clear that the Democrats were not always on the side of the angels. As anyone will tell you Abe Lincoln, (Blog: Spielberg’s Lincoln), was a Republican and Lincoln’s problem was the Southern Democrats. The latter had been the major opposition to equality till relatively recently. The Republican Eisenhower had big problems with the Southern Democratic Dixiecrats with his Civil Rights Bill in the 1950’s. It was Eisenhower who took on the Democratic Arkansas Governor’s defiance of the desegregation of Little Rock’s Central High School. Lyndon Johnson also recognized that by introducing Kennedy’s civil rights agenda he would be sacrificing Democratic control of the South.

The irony of all of this is that the Southern Republicans rather than continue with the Civil Rights agenda, which had inadvertently put them into power; in order to keep winning elections took on the Southern Democratic agenda of discrimination. The Democrats, to their credit, got with the program and became the guardians of equality.

So in the 70’s there was a role reversal in the South. The Republicans took on the winning formula of denying rights and advancement of African Americans. They could win with the South as Nixon, Reagan and the Bushes showed.

NEW REALITY

The demographics of the country have changed. Not only is the African American vote going exclusively to the Democrats, (Eisenhower got 40% of them), the numbers registered to vote have increased dramatically. Also the Latinos are veering more and more to the Democrats. In addition the Republican agenda has resulted in them loosing more and more of the women, gay and youth vote. As Bill O’Reilly of Fox said this, "used to be a white man’s country”.

NULLIFICATION

The response of the new Tea Party Republican Party has been to go into denial and move even more to the right. Their approach is to get the minority to triumph. They will obliterate the views of the majority one way or another. This is the policy of nullification that was the tactic of the Confederate States. The States nullify Federal law. This is being done now in the field of the social agenda such as abortion and medical care by refusing to effect Obamacare.  They also decrease the Welfare agenda, spend less on education and on Women’s Health. They have their own gun laws and immigration policies. However the most significant move by the Tea Party dominated GOP has been to limit the vote of the minorities by decreasing opportunities to vote, making registration and voting more and more and onerous. In addition in the States that they control the Districts have been delimitated to ensure safe Republican seats.

Nullification takes place on a Federal level as well. It is the stated policy of the leader of the Republic controlled House of Representatives that their objective is to reverse legislation not to create it. Hence they have passed less than 20 laws in this Congressional Term and have attempted to reverse Obamacare 40 times. In the Senate where the Republications are in the minority they have filibustered 420 times, breaking all records in this field of endeavor.

FISCAL EFFECTS OF NULLIFICATION

The effect of this behavior has been to limit the impact of Obama’s agenda. Also it has had a profound fiscal impact. With several budgets not seeing the light of day several government programs from parks, museums, welfare programs such as food stamps, unemployment benefits, meals at schools, federal watch dog programs, such as the environmental agency and on and on, have all been cut.

If this group had its way they would be no taxation at all. (Presumably their salaries would come from pay offs and bribes!) No taxation of the rich has become their holy grail. The philosophical argument being trickle down economics will create growth. This theory has no basis in fact. Eisenhower stimulated the economy by building infrastructure, creating jobs and increasing the top income tax bracket to 90%. Obama is crying for money to build the infrastructure, create jobs and increase the tax on those earning over $250,000 to 38%. How one can argue that trickle down economics works when the multiple between what a CEO earns versus an average worker is at a historic high of 230? The accepted multiple in the past was 20 times.

POLITICAL EFFECTS OF NULLIFICATION

The new GOP then cutely maintains that Obama is doing nothing about the economy when they are blocking every attempt he is making. Politically they see this playing out as Obama being blamed for doing nothing about the economy and hoping the electorate will forget they wouldn’t let him do anything.

To the poor, who now maintain that the system is rigged against them and that they cannot advance beyond an age old minimum wage, the policy is to belittle them and shame them linking poverty to inertia and laziness. They are Romney’s 47% relying on Government handouts with no ambition. To those who claim that they cannot come out on 2 fulltime jobs on minimum wage the Fox commentators literally laugh at them. Minimum wages are entry wages. You are not supposed to feel comfortable. Move on. It is your fault if you are stuck there.

So the GOP is tied into this narrative. They are even set to close the government for the first time since 1996 when Gingrich by this action hastened his own demise and made Cinton look even more Presidential. Good luck to the Chris Christies of the party who are trying to fight it.

The new GOP are just hoping that this will all come together and that the disappointingly slow economic recovery will be blamed on Obama and whoever they elect to run will just run on that you have never had it so bad.

THE COUNTER STRATEGY AND THE FUTURE

Obama’s counter to all of this is to go onto the campaign trail and sell his agenda. His job, fiscal, economic, health, immigration and social policies all receive the full treatment.  Although he has been at this for 10 years he has not lost his zest for doing what he does best. Also the hordes and the throngs who pitch up to hear him have not lost their exuberance at hearing his rhetoric. He belabors the fact that the Republicans won’t cooperate. He announces compromises that are the Republican knee jerkly reject. Meantime electioneering continues with his powerful grass roots organization in an attempt to hang onto the Senate and win the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterm elections If he doesn’t win the 2014 congressional elections he will just carry on as before.

HILLARY AND THE LEGACY

Obama has enough sense of history to know that his and Hillary’s agenda is exactly the same and to look at a sixteen year transition period rather than an eight year span. Short of another Obama, Hillary is a certainty to win in 2016. In the interim the Republican Party will tear itself to pieces in another bruising Primary. There is Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Mark Rubrio, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jed Bush, Peter King and TBA all ready to run. While they chew each other up and use up tons and tons of money in the process, Hillary will be collecting more and more money and be looking more and more Presidential. Although she hasn’t announced there are already millions in a Political Action Committee supporting her that have employed key Obama strategists to mastermind her campaign. There is an unprecedented groundswell of so many constituencies ready to back her. The women of all parties are screaming for the first woman President. And there is Bill a living American icon. Obama has gone out of his way to all but endorse her appearing with her on Sixty Minutes singing her praises to the skies. The 2016 Presidential election is looking more like a coronation than a contest.

So if it takes 16 years to initiate distributive justice in the USA and stop this culture of greed so be it. Scalia and Kennedy cannot live forever and the Supreme Court will take on an entirely different complexion.

In the meantime, notwithstanding all the new GOP electoral shanagans and the fact the electoral map favors the Republicans in 2014, the Democrats could control both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This will not knock nullification out just yet so only a limited amount could be achieved. Also John McCain is resuming his old maverick role and is openly attacking this Republican behavior. (He has obviously not running again). So who knows there maybe real Government after 2014?

The Republicans cannot survive on nullification. They cannot control the USA with a minority of voters. This demographic situation can only worsen and in 2016 this will be shown in stark terms. Out of the ashes hopefully a coherent policy will emerge. Then this new political reality will go back to the old and instead of gross malfunction we will have just have the ordinary old dysfunction in politics.