SYRIA, RUSSIA AND IRAN - SECOND COLD WAR IN THE MAKING?

The Syrian crisis has escalated beyond anyone’s imagination. Most of the Arab Spring was limited to local politics. Up till now the populist rebels, who ever they were, have won and the Government in power was ousted. While the eventual outcome of these internal struggles will have an impact on the Middle East and the World political scene, for the moment these countries are still in the process of sorting out their new orders. The Syrian situation has broken the mold. The rebels, again whoever they are, are loosing the battle.

FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE.

Now the rebels are loosing the battle not because of Assad’s ascendancy but rather from the aid he has received from Russia, Iran and the Iranian surrogate Hezbollah. Russia has become a very active material supporter of the Assad regime. Even if one is charitable and puts this down to their long history of trade and personal relations with the Assads the implications are far reaching. Russia is aligning itself with the Iranian terrorist axis at a time when Iran is making a sustained play to become a Middle East and a world power.

Russia is shunning any meaningful attempt to settle the Syrian civil war in the teeth of the atrocities committed by Assad. The latter include conclusive proof that the Assad regime is using chemical weapons.

While the world community are coming round to the creation of a no fly zone to control Assad’s aggression, Russia are not only adamantly opposed but are supporting Assad with arms and even, it is rumored, trained personnel. Putin has defiantly stated that the rebels are cannibals and has warned the West not to arm the rebels. 

AMERICA’S POSITION

Obama’s America has tried to stay out of it all. (Blog: Decision Points: Bush, Obama and Syria). However, Obama’s chemical weapons, line in the sand, has been bridged and with pressure from the hawks, like McCain and Lindsay in addition to advice from Bill Clinton, he has to get involved. America’s chief Western allies have been pressurizing Obama for some time to climb in boots and all so they will be delighted to have him aboard. As Jay H Ell writes he is having de ja vu all over again. Putin is risking a second cold war situation by his determined backing of Assad. More significantly he is aligning himself on one side of the great Muslim dispute. The Iranian Shiite side to be more specific. And if it needs reiterating Iran are determined to be a world power with nuclear arms to back them up.

IRAN’S BID FOR ASCENDENCY IN MUSLIM WORLD

Iran is more than mindful that before it can take over the world it has to be the legitimate Muslim super power representative. Put another way before taking on the world it has to win the regional championship to be a contender. Iran is at a distinct disadvantage in the Muslim world. Firstly, it is not an Arab country and secondly it is Shiite and not Sunni. The real true blue Muslims are Sunni.

In order to overcome these disadvantages Iran has taken the lead in attacking the State of Israel. This it has done in terms of rhetoric, unashamedly calling for the annihilation of Israel. It has carried on the Goebel’s principle, if you tell a lie often enough it gains credibility, by denying even that the holocaust ever occurred. It has been more than rhetoric that the Iranians have offered. They fund and train two terrorist organizations that have highly efficient militia – Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah have currently been commandeered to fight for Assad and won back a key hold rebel town that has turned the war around. The Iranians have a natural affinity to the Iraqis in that the latter are predominantly Shiite.

So you are looking at an Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian and Lebanese, (Hezbollah) and Palestinian, (Hamas), axis. In addition the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt are leaning toward Iran. This makes the minority government of Jordan even more vulnerable. If this scenario materializes then Iran controls the whole Middle East surrounding Israel. Israel will be an easy target if this occurs. Regardless of the rest of the Muslim Arab Sunni World’s antipathy to Iran they are not going to support Israel over the liberation of Palestine by Iran and it’s surrogates. (Even “liberal” Dubai, whose economy depends on tourism, will not let you visit if you have an Israeli entry stamp in your passport).

On top of this all Iran persists in its nuclear ambitions and Russia, like it or not, is allied to them.

ARAB WORLD.

Although the Arab countries, predominantly the Sunni, have not engaged directly in the fight, they have roundly condemned Assad. In a way it is ironic however that the responsibility to take up arms is still left to the Western allies. No offers of a Saudi Arabia militia on the table, for example. What is pouring in, according to the Washington Times, are large sums of money from wealthy Arab individuals and “charities” to specific rebel groups. These tend to be mainly the Jihad groups of rebels.

There has to be deep ambivalence in the Muslim world toward the Assad situation. Either an old guard is still in power with the potential of an Arab Spring in the background or a new lot are in that cannot feel secure.  All of them are autocratic in one way or another so there has to be some identification with Assad’s plight. Also none of them want to be on the wrong side of the Israeli – Palestinian divide. This dilemma is not unlike that of the Muslims, in general, not coalescing to give a unified unqualified condemnation of Jihad terrorism. (Blog: Jihad – Who Is To Blame?)

All this adds up to the Arab world condemning Assad but doing naught to stop his slaughter or to influence the Russians to back off from arming Assad.

WHERE ALL THIS MAY GO

This scenario puts the Russians in the Iranian camp. If Jay H. Ell knows that so do the Russians. The Iranians have unabashedly taken on the Western and Sunni Arab world. China is not terribly much interested so they are out of the picture. The Russians are showing no signs of letting up so there is a make or break situation in the international power game revolving around Syria.

The West cannot afford to let Assad win. The West for practical purposes means America. How far will America go to stop this from happening? There is too much at stake to let Assad win. Israel, its biggest ally in the region becomes totally vulnerable to an Iranian attack, possibly even nuclear. The picture becomes even darker when a full-blown support of the Rebels, whoever they may be, means being on the opposite side of Russia in a war. This is not just philosophically on opposite sides but both Russia and America materially backing opposite sides with arms and G-D forbid boots on the ground – ala Vietnam or Korea.

As the situation stands there is no way out of this mess. Putin has, for whatever reason, sought to take America on in this arena. What he hopes to gain is difficult to understand. Is he really interested in making Iran a world nuclear power? This cannot be about loyalty to an old friend. Nothing in Putin’s resume points to loyalty being a driving factor in his decision making process.  Putin by going against the majority of Western and Arab opinion is staking a claim that Russia is once again a player in the world scene. If he persists in this stance we are looking at the second cold war in the making. Even more than that America will be dragged into a prolonged Middle East Battle that it hoped it would resolve by diplomacy.

Israel, understandably, are not going to let this strengthening of Iran carry on too long and may well take the situation into their own hands and that will add to the complexity of resolving this explosive situation.

OBAMA AND PUTIN– CRUNCH TIME

Also down the tubes goes Obama’s resolve not to involve America in any more wars. Unhappily this has now become America’s war. This also speeds up decision making on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Obama does not need an antagonistic Russia allied to a nuclear-armed Iran that, if Assad wins out, will become the major player in the Muslim world. He cannot sell out on Israel. Unless Russia is grandstanding before meeting Obama at the Group of eight meeting and at the end of the day will back a compromise in Syria and give Assad a dacha on the Caspian Sea, the situation is going to turn ugly pretty fast. Jay H Ell has to believe that Putin has grandiose ideas about putting Russia back as a major power house on the world scene. The only hope has to be to convince this former head of the KGB that he becomes more significant if he is seen to be resolving the Syrian crisis rather than creating it.

On thing is for sure the future aint what it used to be.