Barbara Bush, the matriarch of the Bush family and the
Republican Party establishment, caused the biggest raucous in the political
world by her categorical response as to the possibility of her son’s Jed Bush
Presidential run – “We have had enough Bushes”. There were not ripples from
this splash in the pond but a tsunami. What on earth did she mean? How is her
statement being interpreted? Also her unambiguous statement has reopened the
debate on the 2016 Presidential election.
BARBARA BUSH
The eighty – seven year old Barbara Bush is a very powerful
and influential woman who has been around in living memory of nearly every
living American and Republican - an ever presence in her husband George HW 60
year old political career. The latter a Congressman, Ambassador to China, Head
of the CIA, influential Chairman of the National Republican Committee at the
time of Nixon, Vice – President for 8 years and President for 4 years. Since
Bush 41’s exit from politics in 1992 both her and her husband have never been
that far removed from the limelight. This especially so with two sons becoming
Governors and one of them going on to be President for 8 years. Another son
Neil was involved in financial scandal and a steamy divorce and she proved a
rock in this mess. She also lived through the death of a daughter from leukemia, an experience that sadly can only be fully understood by those who have lost a
child.
Over the years she has been as fiercely independent and
outspoken, as a daughter of the President of McCall’s publications and a
descendent of the 14th US President Frank Pierce, was born to be.
She always was pro choice. She pioneered literacy campaigns and recently lead
the establishment charge to put paid to Sarah Palin, by commenting that she was
beautiful and she should go back to Alaska.
So when Barbara Bush says the country has had enough Bush’s
you better take notice. This is about as close to the Republican Establishment
thinking that you can get. This especially so when rationally, on its face, Jed
has the credentials. He is highly intelligent, likeable, moderate, a former
popular Governor of the swing state of Florida, married to a Latino, a recent
convert to Catholism, fluent in Spanish and an open access to the richest
donors in the Republican Establishment.
WHAT “ENOUGH BUSHES” MEANS TO BARBARA.
Personal level.
* On a personal level Barbara Bush has had enough. Born to
enact a life of public service and noblesse oblige she has done so to the age
of eighty-seven. So enough is enough. Barbara has seen the devastation and toll
high office in the US takes. Her family has done their bit. She has seen at
all.
* She saw her husband, Bush 41, politically crucified after
he, in the country’s interests, raised taxes. This after promising at a
Republican Convention “Read my lips no more taxes”. The fact that there were
changing circumstances that necessitated his decision was irrelevant. To her
mind the electorate cruelly cast him aside and he left decades of public
service, humiliated.
* She is now witnessing the lampooning of her Bush 43 who, in
spite of all of his efforts, is regarded at as best as a joke and at worst a
liar who was responsible for the death and maiming of tens of thousands of
Americans and putting America deep into debt. While time will probably be more
generous to his legacy, in the here and now, the more he and his name is out of
the public eye the better.
* So let other families do their share. The time has come to
enjoy your children and great grand children. Leave us Bushes alone!
Political level
* Maybe if Barbara Bush believed that Jed Bush had a chance
of becoming the next President she would have had a different message. However,
she didn’t want a Bush being manipulated into being the last Establishment
Republican hope and the emotional and physical exhaustion that would accompany
what would be an exercise in futility,
* She realized that Bush 43’s brand of compassionate
conservatism had lead to the formation of the Tea Party and that no – one with
the name Bush and everything that it stood for could get the Party nomination
easily. The Tea Party is the base of Republican Party and if somehow they could
be split, as Rove was able to do to get Romney the nomination, then Jed would
be massacred in a Presidential election.
* The Republican Party has moved from the old boy white male
exclusivity that it was comfortable with for so many years and the Republican
establishment doesn’t like what has taken its place. The Republican Congress
has moved from the traditional role of compromise where Congress comes to terms
with a sitting President to confrontation and paralysis of the country. This does not sit well with the
moderates whom Jed would need.
* More significantly the Tea Party dominated Republican
Party are on the wrong side of everything – Guns, Gay Rights, Women’s Rights,
Immigration, Latinos, the middle class and nothing meaningful is being done to
change this. By their own analyses they project an image of meanness and being
the Party meeting the needs of the rich.
In fact all that together with the financial policies that were rejected
by the electorate are still being defiantly adhered to by the Tea Party
dominated Republican Congressional team.
* The perception is Hillary is unbeatable as she is ahead of
every possible contender in so called marginal States by at least 10%. While
there is many a slip between cup and lip in Presidential races, as Hillary
herself would testify to, this belief is becoming such a consensus that at the
very least it will be a self -fulfilling prophecy. Everyone believes that the
Country is now ready for a Woman President.
* Added to all of this is that the Obama Social Network
machine has been honed and serves as a powerful tool to mobilize voters and
public opinion. The Republicans are decades behind.
* The only commodity the Republicans are not short off is
money. However, most of this is going to the Tea Party and the 2014 Primaries
are scheduled to be a battle between Rove Establishment money versus Koch
Brothers Tea Party money. Now if Rove could win convincingly then maybe just
maybe the Republicans could begin changing positions and policies that just
might be in tune with the electorate. This Jay H. Ell believes would only be a
beginning and too little to late.
WHAT “ENOUGH BUSHES” MEANS TO THE WORLD
So at the end of the day Momma Bush did not just shoot her
mouth off. Hers was a reasoned assessment of what Jed’s chances would be. The
decision was against her core value system that had seen her husband and two
sons through lives of service that they were born too. Jed she had always
believed would be the one to follow 41 and now she had come to the realization
that this was not to be. It could not have been an easy conclusion and her
public airing of it has made it difficult for Jed to run. She could have so
easily said that it was up to him tra la la and that she doesn’t interfere. But
she does and she has and it would be remarkable if he went against his mother’s
“advice”.
But it also means that Barbara Bush has written the epitaph
to the Republican Party as she and everyone else has known it for the past 70
years. This was the Republican Party that was a blend of Eisenhower pragmatism
and Barry Goldwater conservatism.
The Party that recovered from the disaster of Herbert Hoover and
actually won back power after Franklin Roosevelt had so dominated the mid 20th
Century. There were 8 years of Eisenhower, 8 years of Nixon/Ford and 12 years
of Reagan/Bush 41 and yet another 8 years of Bush 43.
Now it is all over. The Libertarians and fundamentalists
with their quaint economic and social policies have taken the GOP over in the
form of the Tea Party. While the old GOP establishment remains in denial
Barbara has called it quits and, if she can help it, at least take her family
with her so that Thanksgiving gatherings can just be about the grandchildren
and great grandchildren.
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