OBAMAGATE BOOMERANG ?

Obamagate Boomerang

There is tumultuous celebration in the Republican ranks. Finally, they believe they have got Obama where they want him. Finally, they don’t have to smear him personally as a Muslim loving Socialist born anywhere other than the USA. They have a trifecta of issues – Benghazigate, IRSgate and Freedom of the Pressgate. You do not have to be a mathematician to realize that is three gates. This is why this whole calamity is worse than Watergate, where Nixon’s whole inner circle including some cabinet members went to prison and Reagan’s Irangate where there were pardons and indictments left, right and center, (but mainly right), while poor old Oliver North was thrown under the bus. Now Watergate and Irangate are only two gates and that is one less than Obamagate so therefore Obamagate is worse.

WHAT NOW?

Jay H. Ell has long maintained that the Republican Party is leaderless and split in two. The tempo is being set by unelected megalomaniacs and institutions that lay out the agenda for the conflicting factions within the party. (Blogs: Obama's Second Term and the GOP, (11/11/12), The Republicans Ongoing Denial of Reality, (12/7/12), What Barbara Bush's "Enough Bushes" Means, (5/2/13).

The unelected megalomaniacs, like Karl Rove have been strangely silent on Obamagate but some media moguls such as Bill O’Reilly and Charles Krauthammer have urged caution. The Heritage Foundation, which is the leading Republican policy maker has told the Republican Congress to stick to the Obamagate issues. The Heritage Foundation believes this stategy will unite the Republican Party while discussing legislative issues will just expose the divisions within the GOP.

So let us examine the three components of Obamagate.

Benghazi part 3.

Jay H. Ell has covered this extensively in blogs, (Stopping Clinton in 2016 Starts at Benghazi, (1/7/13) and Carry on Benghazi: Stop Hillary 2016, Part 2, ( 5/16/13), so what has happened since? There are murmurings from those that were fired as a result of the Pickering report, that was commissioned by Hillary Clinton, but these are not of enough substance and gravitas to be publicized even by the Republican media.

Darrell Issa, the Chairman of the House of Representatives Oversight Committee, is ready for a second sequel. He wishes to interview Thomas Pickering the author of the report on the Benghazi incident that Hillary appointed and upon whose recommendations she immediately acted. Now Pickering and Issa are having a public fight. Darrell Issa who, by his actions, could be thought to be addicted to publicity, wants Pickering to testify privately in Committee. Pickering is having none of it and has thus far refused Issa’s invitations to do so. Pickering believes he should testify in the public arena. Issa is now going to subpoena him to do his bidding.

None of this would indicate that Benghazi has got any legs and if Issa forces a showdown with the Republican Pickering over the issue of a public hearing he is going to come off second best.

Freedom of the Press.

This “gate” arises out of the Department of Justice’s subpoenaing of the Associated Press’s records, emails and the like. The Department of Justice was after the culprits that had leaked sensitive information. Obama has maintained that Security leaks can put people at risk.

This seems a terrible issue for the Republicans. Freedom of the Press is really not the main plank in their platform. In fact they have lead the attacks on the Press. In 2012 John McCain wanted a special counsel appointed to investigate security leaks relating to Obama’s drone “kill list”. Also in 2012 Republican Congressman Gowdy mooted that reporters who refused to reveal “leakers” on security issues be locked up. The Republican leaders both in the Senate and the House of Representatives went ballistic attacking the Washington Post for running a story that Bush had secret prisons.

So if the Republicans really followed this one through they would need a lot of Democratic votes to get a condemnation of the Justice Department’s actions. The Heritage Foundation would have a fit if the Republicans had another public blood feud over the “Freedom of the Press”. Sadly, the public does not give a hoot about the issue so why on earth this is one of the “gates” Jay H. Ell is not sure.

As an aside, to say the least, the media are not too happy with Obama This will not affect his political position one jot as the press are never to popular anyway.

Internal Revenue Service, (IRS)

Now here is a “gate” that really shows promise. Everyone hates the powerful IRS. They have a reputation of being despotic, autocratic and uncaring. They are actually feared. 

The IRS allegedly targeted Conservative groups that wished to attain 5-1c 4 status. This status ostensibly allows the group exemption from Federal taxes. Also not only does the 5-1c 4 organization not have to pay Federal Taxes it is given a non profit status and the donors can give tax free donations anonymously. This 5-1 c 4 status really achieved major significance when the Supreme Court ruled in the Citizen United Case that anyone could anonymously donate as much as he or she liked to political parties or anything related to politics. So now 5-1c 4’s became the rage and applications for this status poured into the IRS.

It is with this as background that the Treasury Inspector General issued a report that Conservative Groups especially the Tea Party had been discriminated against.

Reaction and Response.

Oh bliss oh joy unforeseen screamed the Republicans. Obama immediately condemned the alleged behavior and said that there would be investigations. – the behavior could not be tolerated. All government agencies had to be ethical and above board but especially the IRS.  Immediately there were resignations from the very top of the IRS. But John Boehner said he was not interested in resignations he wanted to know who was going to jail.

Every Chairman of every Republican Committee got ready to hold hearings. This really was not a good idea if they wanted jail terms cause these investigations muddy the waters, contaminate the evidence and allow people to scream the 5^th Amendment before the investigators have a chance to speak to them. But this was not really the issue, the real issue was to follow the Heritage Foundation mandate. Also the objective was to link this to Obama. He had to have known about it - even better if, Nixonlike, he had ordered it.  If slippery Hillary had escaped the net here was a bigger fish - Obama himself!

However with all the media around these days nobody is hanging round for Congress. The LA Times, The NY Times, The Washington Post, Pro Republican and the Business Insider among others probed and probed deeply.

• As work in the IRS increased it was decided to move the Federal Office to Cincinnati to process not for profit requests as the Federal Pay there was the lowest.
• Tax-exempt applications increased while the number of staff has decreased due to austerity measures. These applications grew exponentially after the Supreme Court Citizens United decision.
• By far the greatest number of these requests was from right wing Tea Party organizations.
• The initial response of the IRS was to just accept the applications and very few were refused.
• However, the numbers just grew and grew. The Office had 70,000 applications a year for the 5-1 c 4 category,
• One employee who was in charge of all the 5 – 1 c 4  applications tried to separate them into those that she had found to be more likely to be “political”. She would seek more information from these applicants. She decided that terms like “we the people” and “patriots” for example were more likely not to meet the criteria of not being primarily welfare organizations.  The employee “Mitzie” asked for guidance in decision-making but got none. She also snagged liberal groups in her endeavor. All she wanted to do was move files of her desk. 
• This was considered profiling by the Inspector General’s Office and here we are.now.
• Mitzie has been handcuffed and arrested and will be rushed before a million congress committees where she will be advised to plead the 5^th amendment and say nothing.
• It was all so Kafgaesque. She was acting in no man’s land and according to her she was doing the best she could with no help from anyone. How does an IRS official interpret what is “principally” social welfare? Then how must she do it in the light of all the Supreme Court decisions?
• So we now have the spectacle of all these Congress Hearings that will now go nowhere as there is a criminal investigation going on. Everybody will plead the 5th Amendment. In Issa’s ongoing hearing on May 19, Lois Lerner, who actually revealed that the IRS appeared to have singled out the Conservative Groups, pleaded the 5^th Amendment, as there was an ongoing criminal investigation.
• Issa will go the whole hog. He will attempt to keep this upfront and in the public arena forever or at least till the midterm elections in 2014. After all Issa is not doing so well on Benghazi.

UPSHOT.

• So Boehner has his arrest but how it will help him and his cause G- D knows. They have to tie Mitzi, (who was way way down in the food chain, who reported to a Bush appointee), to Obama and Hillary. After all this is supposedly Watergate where Nixon and his associates were shown to have initiated, financed and directed this type of behavior.
• Prosecuting “Mitzi” will appear to be ridiculous.
• All this is going to show is that the Civil Service is in a big mess. A mess in this and other areas. Part of the problem is the “austerity” and “sequester” measures backed by the Republicans.
• Obama would like nothing more than a simplification and revision of the tax code. He particularly would like to cut out all the Romney type loopholes and these tax-free political fronts.
• The Obama administration will certainly be held responsible for the IRS deficiencies that will be revealed but they have been generations in the making.
• This trifecta has going to have a very low pay out.
• After what has been described as the worst week in the Obama Presidency the latter’s ratings are up and Hillary’s are still the highest for any active politician by far.
• Maybe, just maybe, the Republicans should just focus on legislation. Immigration would be a great start as if they completely alienate themselves from the Latinos they will never win a national election again.

THE REAL UPSHOT

 In reality no organization should have received tax-free status.

The IRS provision 5-1 c4 states that tax-free status should only be given to Organizations that act exclusively for Social Welfare. Apparently, as Lawrence O’Donnell on his show revealed, in 1959, an IRS Republican Commissioner arbitrarily changed the word exclusively for the word primarily.

Thus as a result of this illegal change of wording a 5-1 c4 group that supports certain philosophies, viewpoints, activities etc could now also lobby and promote a cause that could be considered political such as gun rights or be for against abortion. They could do this in election campaigns as long as they were primarily, as adjudged by the IRS, involved in welfare, as interpreted by the IRS

When this illegality sinks in the debate is going to change to loopholes in the tax code, which the 5 –1 c4 has illegally become. This will open the way for a whole revisit of the tax code. It is hard to carry on that some groups were discriminated against with regard to tax-free status when none should be given tax-free status at all.

So maybe just maybe the Republicans should have their main focus on legislative issues.

CARRY ON BENGHAZI: STOP HILLARY 2016, PART 2

Once again, with feeling, the whole issue of Benghazi was aired in the Congress. Chairman, Darrell Issa, of the House of Representative’s Oversight Committee, convened yet another hearing of the Benghazi tragedy. Not content that the initial hearings yielded no political gain it was a case of onwards into the breach. Issa trumpeted these hearings as the final nail in the coffins of the Democratic administration – and of course Hillary’s chances in 2016. He was going to present witnesses, that were originally muzzled. They would tell the real truth about Benghazi and the cover up.  Fox News was set to cover the whole day's hearings word for word.

There is so much hypocrisy in the whole circus that it is difficult to take the protagonists, who are lead by John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Fox News, whose claim that four life’s could have been saved, seriously. In fact Obama has advised the Republicans not to turn the issue into a circus but it is too late they already have. Senator Inhofe from Iowa even suggested that Obama should be impeached over the issue.

These are the same people that don’t give a hoot that 30,000 lives a year are lost from gun violence. These are the same Congressmen who stared the Newtown parents in their faces and did nothing about gun control. Yet somehow those currently governing must be replaced by these goons who, apparently, would not give two hoots if some maniac shot them in a theater having legally purchased a gun on the internet, a gun show or from their friendly neighbor. They also think it is ok not to actively try and prevent some fanatic shooting up political meetings and killing a judge and maiming one of their own colleagues for life. (Blog: The Tuscan Massacre and American Culture - Can There Be a Solution, January 2011).

These Congressmen are also the same crew that had not one criticism of the 21 attacks on embassies that took place during the Bush Administration. Eight of these were in Iraq so let us leave them out for the moment. In the other 13 attacks 84 people were killed. Three of the attacks took place in Karachi, Pakistan. To the best of Jay H. Ell’s knowledge no top professional Democratic diplomat was appointed to investigate these incidents even after the fact that two more occurred after the first one, in the same place, all in the space of 4 years. In the space of two years two took place in Saudi Arabia where were all these people then?

In addition they the same politicos that are responsible for decreasing the government spending for everything and that would include security for embassies!

BEFORE CARRYING ON TO BENGHAZI PART 2

Well first there was “Carry On Benghazi” part one.  (Blog; Stopping Clinton 2016 Starts at Benghazi, January 2013). The following was established there:

• Four members of the American State Department were killed in the consulate at Bhengazi.
• The initial Administration report told the world, with many qualifications and based on early intelligence, that the perpetrators were demonstrators who were protesting an anti Muslim video. Susan Rice, America’s UNO Representative who reports to Hillary, was the Administration’s spokesperson.
• As intelligence came in the report was found to be wrong, Ms Rice, the Secretary of State designate, was banished from political life. Apparently she was not as lucky as Bush, Rumsfeld, Condee Rice, Cheney, Powell and Wolpowitz who lead us into a war where over 30,000 were killed and trillions were spent. (Blog: The Iraqui War Deception and Its Aftermath, March, 2013). All those lucky people who were “mislead” for years by intelligence and then "mislead" everyone else, survived and carried on second terms in office.
• Clinton immediately ordered a report into the Benghazi incident. This was lead by Thomas Pickering a Republican career diplomat. He had plenty to say to prevent a future catastrophe in the form of 29 recommendations and criticisms of security decisions. Hillary accepted them all.
• Hillary said that Obama was not involved and she accepted responsibility
• Pickering maintained that the report into Benghazi investigated security decisions and Hillary Clinton was not involved in any of them.
• Congressional and Senatorial hearings were held where Hillary acquitted herself well. (This after being accused of faking a concussion to avoid appearing).
• Benghazi part one seemed to have settled Hillary’s problem and her approval ratings of over 60% remained steady. Everyone moved on except Issa, Boehner, McCain, Lindsey, McConnell, Fox News and all who believed that this cover up was greater than Watergate and Iran Contra combined. They licked their wounds and searched to find something else to revitalize Benghazi.

NOW CARRY ON BENGHAZI PART 2

Well let’s get back into Issa and his mind set, with all the pressing problems facing Congress, he thought, together with his colleagues, that Benghazi needed a sequel.  He decided to hold another 5 hour Congressional hearing. It was advertised everywhere and anywhere as the final expose of the cover up. Fox News was going to devote the whole day to cover the hearings.

The reason given for the reopening of the issue was that witnesses from the State Department, who had not been allowed to testify on Benghazi, were going to tell all. Darrell Issa predicted startling revelations. The star witness was to be a Gregory Hicks who was in Benghazi and had been ostensibly muzzled. (How Darrell got him unmuzzled to give a day of testimony only Darrell himself knows).

What emerged was that a justifiably angry Gregory Hicks gave his version of what happened that night in Benghazi. His story was not at odds with what is now acknowledged to be what took place. The Embassy was attacked by the Libyan version of El Qaeda. Mr. Higgs called the military for help and they did not come. The military have maintained that they could have not got there in time. Hicks stated that he also told Hillary Clinton what was going on. He was thus “embarrassed” by Susan Rice’s initial statement.

Another, presumably muzzled, witness, Ed Nordstom said he choked up when he heard Hillary Clinton maintain that it was irrelevant what Susan Rice had initially said was not “the issue”. Nordstrom, as had a few others, misinterpreted that this meant that Clinton was publicly expressing that she did not care that four of her department had been killed.  Nordstrom also maintained that the top Decision Makers in the State Department were not interviewed in the investigation ordered by Hillary Clinton. This statement cannot have too much credulity, as there is no corroborating evidence to this effect, The statement implies that the Republican Thomas Pickering was in on the conspiracy selectively interviewing State Department officials. If that is so why was his report so scathing and the basis of four top officials being fired or resigning? Also why have these “top officials” not come forward?

DARREL’S DAMP SQUIB

It soon became obvious that nothing new was emerging from Issa’s spectarama and Fox News must have heard the clicks of all those remotes and stopped their ongoing coverage of the spectacle. To add insult to injury none of the other channels were giving it too much attention either. MSNBC would have had under the normal course of events covered it to give it’s mostly Democratic leaning political pundits an opportunity to comment on the proceedings.

The problem was not only nothing new happening at the Capitol but two sensational news stories were breaking. The salacious Jodi Arias murder trial was coming to a climax and the rescue of three Cleveland women that had been held captive for 10 years was being aired so that even Rush Limbaugh must have called it quits.

WHERE ARE WE NOW IN CARRY ON BENGHAZI?

• There is no doubt, for whatever reasons in those early days the Administration in the immediate aftermath, when they were receiving mixed messages, ascribed what Obama characterized as an “act of terror”, as having been perpetrated by protestors to an Anti – Muslim video. The initial Rice statement was qualified leaving room for a change in the aforementioned theory. No- one is denying that the initial theory was wrong so what is the deal?
• There is a new call that Obama should release the e- mails that he gave to both House and Senate Committees months ago. There obviously cannot be any political dynamite there or Darrell, or John, or Lindsey would have told us. So without much ado Obama released them. All they showed was how yhe various agencies involved bickered over what to give Rice to say.
• On the basis of the above the Republicans are still rating Hillary chanceless in 2016 and invoking the possibility of impeaching Obama.
• No one is too interested in this circus. According to a Pew report only 44% of the electorate are taking any notice.
• The Republicans really have to be desperate making this a central issue. Maybe it is one of the few issues that both wings of the party agree upon.

THE PREVIOUS ATTACKS ON THE CLINTONS AND RESULTS

The Clintons appear to be a particular red rag to the Republicans. The Republicans appear irrationally terrified of them. They created a massive bohaai over both Hillary’s and Bill’s involvement in a Whitewater land deal. Also they focused on the firing of Whitehouse travel agents and usage of FBI files.  After months and months of investigation and literally tens of millions spent, the Special Prosecutor, Kenneth Starr, found not one jot of malfiscience. However Starr, going off at a total tangent which had nothing to do with his mandate, found that Clinton lied under oath in a matter relating to a sexual relationship with an intern.

There were also endless smears that the Clintons had killed a former law partner of Hillary’s, presumably because he knew too much about Whitewater. No one could find a jot of evidence that that was true and every investigation lead to suicide.

If the objective was to impress the electorate it failed miserably. Only one third of the country supported the impeachment process in the first place.

The upshot of all that was that Bill Clinton was not removed and left office with the highest approval rating of a recent President. He is currently the most popular figure on the political scene, by far, and in every survey of Presidents he is rated just behind Lincoln, Jefferson and Washington. He now is internationally recognized for his Foundation that has tackled numerous problems such as AIDS. He was appointed by the UNO to be its ambassador to Haiti. He is also credited with ensuring Obama’s reelection.

Hillary at this stage is the favorite to be the next President. Her ratings have never been higher. It is thus obvious that the smear campaigns on the Clintons, thus far, have boomeranged and have merely served to increase their popularity.

WHERE ARE THE ATTACKERS NOW – LET HE WHO IS WITHOUT SIN CAST…

• Kenneth Starr, the Conservative jurist, who with tens of millions of tax payer money, pursued the Clinton’s to the nth degree and finally “got him” on a “lie” on his relationship with an intern, is currently the Dean of a Law School which charitably can be called second tier. It is fair to say that had he not been involved in this sordid affair and appeared to be so partisan he would have been the most viable Republican candidate for Chief Justice after Rehnquist had died. Mercifully the country was spared.
• The Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich had to resign as a result of ethical issues as well as his own extramarital affairs. His appointed successor Bob Livingston resigned almost immediately after his appointment as his extramarital affair was exposed. He had just called for Clinton’s resignation.
• Helen Chenowski, one of the first Republicans to call for Clinton’s impeachment and resignation, was exposed as having a six-year affair with a married man. Dan Burton another of the impeachment front-runners similarly had the tables turned on him.
• Henry Hyde, the self righteous and sanctimonious, Head of the House Judiciary Committee suffered the indignity of the exposure of his protracted extramarital affair with a married woman splashed all over the media. To his credit, (?), this did not deter him one jot.
• Bob Barr, a really vocal Prosecutor in the impeachment process, had to suffer the humiliation of an ex- wife saying that this vigorously pro life Congressman had forced her to have an abortion.
• Lindsey Graham, who has since moved onto the Senate, is out there on the fringe with his colleague John McCain going nowhere very fast.

So it is fair to say that no accuser nor the Republican Party have come out of these types of smear campaigns very well. On top of all of this the Clintons are very tough politicians. They do not believe in the Obama philosophy of “Teams of Rivals”. The Clintons take no prisoners. So Rand Paul and the like before you try and use this as your main plank in your 2016 election bid beware. You will mobilize the base, which is becoming less and less of a percentage of the electorate, but you will be thrashed in a General Election by an electorate which is growing more and more tired of the politics of smear when there are so many real problems facing the Country.

There are other issues with the Obama administration that Jay H. Ell will deal with in the future but he has the distinct impression that the Republicans will overplay their hand. (Major Republican media supporters like Bill O' Reilly and Charles Krauthammer agree with Jay H. Ell). 

The Republicans have to believe that the issues such as immigration, women’s rights, jobs, guns and the economy are far more important. Jay H. Ell is convinced that they will not as borne out that on Boehner’s legislative agenda is the 37^th motion to reverse Obamacare! Boehner has already spent 15% of the House Legislative time on an issue that is already law.....

DECISION POINTS: BUSH, OBAMA AND SYRIA

George Bush 43 has made a big deal about decision points. It is the focus around which he hopes he will ensure his legacy and allow history to see him in a better light.  He has written a book entitled “Decision Points” and his new museum has an interactive video “learning center” where you are given all the facts as “dubbaya” perceived them and then asked to make a decision. Your answer is compared with that of the President whom, incidentally, gave himself the title of “The Decider” during his terms of Office. If you disagree with 43, by the way, you are told you are wrong!

The major decision point was the preemptive war on Iraq and George has his work cut out to change the perceptions on that one. (Blog: The Iraq War Deception and Its Aftermath, March 2013.)

Well, Obama is having his decision point moments right now and Syria stands out like a beacon of decision point making. (You can almost see Dubbaya licking his lips at the thought). Both Syria and Iraq were purported to have weapons of mass destruction. Both countries are oppressors of their people. In fact if it wasn’t for oil there would be more compelling reasons to invade Syria then there were for Iraq!

Now Syria has been hanging around for about 2 years and the current President’s decision has ostensibly been to make no decision. Rather he drew a red line in the sand, namely if Syria deployed its chemical weapons then that would be the impetus to change America’s response. However, as is evident even that “game changer” is subject to many provisions.

On the face of it the two Presidents are looking at similar situations that might require similar decisions but as will be seen that they are approaching this major foreign policy issue, namely intervention, from two entirely different philosophical viewpoints as to the role of the USA in the world.

THE CASE FOR INTERVENTION IN SYRIA

The number one protagonists and followers of the Bush foreign policy philosophy, which have been in favor of Syrian intervention from the very beginning of the conflict, are John McCain and Lindsey Graham. They maintain that not only has the red line been crossed, that Obama has given the Syrian Government a green line to do everything else. While till recently McCain and Lindsay have not been specific as what should have been done they would now would like to arm the rebels and create a no fly zone. Their central argument is that the USA, as the only super power in the world should be heavily involved. The reasons are many and varied, from US security, supporting Israel, humanitarian aid and so on. Underlying it all is the belief that the USA needs to show who controls the world.

OBAMA’S PHILOSPHY ON SYRIAN INTERVENTION

Obama is acting on a number of umbrella principles:

• Any intervention undertaken will to have international support, preferably the UNO Security Council. The US is not going to take any major responsibility on its own. Obama may even take the lead but there has to be a consensus in world opinion.
• Arming of anyone anywhere in an unstable situation is a last resort because at the end of the day there is no guarantee where these arms are going to end up. (Some of he Libyan arms are in Mali.)
• Boots on the ground are out.
• Real arms help will only go to trusted allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Obama has called it quits on the USA being the policeman of the world. There is no mileage in this activity. It is not only counterproductive but America, after is all and said and done, are cheered only when they leave, having lost all that blood and treasure.

What was achieved in Iraq other than civil unrest and throwing the new Government into the arms of Iran? What was achieved by arming the rebels fighting Russia in Afghanistan other than the Taliban taking over the country and the creation of Osama’s Al Qaeda?

Jay H. Ell has the feeling if Obama had it all over again he would have just used drones in Afghanistan. Obama obviously feels that the USA does not have to show its dominance by attempting to control the world.

 DECISION POINT SYRIA - US POLICY CHANGE

This non-interventionist attitude represents a major change in US post Second World War foreign policy – a policy that was initially justified as means to an end in the Cold War. This haphazard approach that resulted in Korean and Vietnam wars, besides all that death and carnage those wars created, the inheritance is a pair of crazies in North Korea and North Vietnam. After the Cold War the justification was more arrogance and belief that the USA’s position in the world warranted intervention to right wrongs. In addition the US reserved the right to act preemptively to any perceived threat to its security. The US was the boss. This was Bush 43’s modus operandi and every other post war President, even Clinton’s.

While there is a deep philosophical basis to Obama’s approach there is also much practicability and reality. In this day and age of technology to send in the cavalry to be blown up by IED’s is lunacy. This is asymmetrical warfare that must be met with an asymmetrical response. You need drones, bombs that bust bunkers, computer hackers that screw up a nuclear programs, satellite observation, robots and the like to cope with threats. (Blog: Obama Killing Americans – Moans on Drones, February 2013).

On a reality basis the issue of which rebel group to support in the Syrian crises is a real problem. There is Al Qaeda. There is a report from the BBC that it was a rebel group, probably Al Qaeda, who was responsible for the chemical weapons and not the Syrian regime. So why should the USA get involved in this mess?

Also Israel has jumped in. The latter has differing immediate concerns but their objectives still coincide with US foreign policy and Israel is a “registered” ally of the USA. There is very little doubt that they would have not have intervened without discussion with the USA. So Israel with a legitimate interest in the region could well coordinate their actions with the USA and execute actions that would not be that defensible for the USA to do.

WHY OBAMA APPOINTED HAGEL

Some of the statements attributed to Secretary of Defense Hagel, in the past, make it obvious why Obama appointed him as Secretary of State and why his former hawk Republican colleagues in the Senate gave him such a tough time:

“We've got to understand great-power limitations. There are so many uncontrollable variables at play in Syria and the Middle East. You work through the multilateral institutions that are available, the U.N., the Arab League”.

“The United States will remain committed to defending Israel. Our relationship with Israel is a special and historic one”.

“ We’ve got to get out of those wars, (Iraq and Afghanistan). Let the people decide what they want. If they don’t want what we wanted for them, or if they certainly don’t want what we wanted for them as much as we want it, then we can’t control that.”

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There are really only two major reasons to intervene in one fashion or another. These relate to humanitarian and security issues. As seen the latter are open to interpretation and have a history of turning sour. The Americans, even when they arrive to rid the country of oppression are only cheered on the way out. They then disturb the balance of power that worsens the internal security position as well as American security - Iraq. Or the aftermath results in a monster that threatens the world – North Korea. Thus the law of unintended consequences rules supreme.

With regard to humanitarian aid that is what it is. You provide food, shelter, safe havens and the like. It can even be stretched to bombing supply lines or key targets that are responsible for atrocities as was done in Bosnia and Libya. But at the end of the day the US isn’t there with boots on the ground and being attacked and keeping warring parties apart.

There is little or no doubt that America will be involved in Syria. In fact they are currently providing humanitarian aid. However, if Obama has anything to do with it, unless the USA is about to be attacked there will be no more Koreas, Vietnams, Iraq’s and even Afghanistans.

There is little doubt too that each situation requires unique solutions. But in the final analysis it is surely better to have as your overarching principles a non interventionist policy as the basis for your foreign policy as opposed to one that has been rightly or wrongly been labeled as naked imperialism.

WHAT BARBARA'S "ENOUGH BUSHES" MEANS

Barbara Bush, the matriarch of the Bush family and the Republican Party establishment, caused the biggest raucous in the political world by her categorical response as to the possibility of her son’s Jed Bush Presidential run – “We have had enough Bushes”. There were not ripples from this splash in the pond but a tsunami. What on earth did she mean? How is her statement being interpreted? Also her unambiguous statement has reopened the debate on the 2016 Presidential election.

BARBARA BUSH

The eighty – seven year old Barbara Bush is a very powerful and influential woman who has been around in living memory of nearly every living American and Republican - an ever presence in her husband George HW 60 year old political career. The latter a Congressman, Ambassador to China, Head of the CIA, influential Chairman of the National Republican Committee at the time of Nixon, Vice – President for 8 years and President for 4 years. Since Bush 41’s exit from politics in 1992 both her and her husband have never been that far removed from the limelight. This especially so with two sons becoming Governors and one of them going on to be President for 8 years. Another son Neil was involved in financial scandal and a steamy divorce and she proved a rock in this mess. She also lived through the death of a daughter from leukemia, an experience that sadly can only be fully understood by those who have lost a child.

Over the years she has been as fiercely independent and outspoken, as a daughter of the President of McCall’s publications and a descendent of the 14^th US President Frank Pierce, was born to be. She always was pro choice. She pioneered literacy campaigns and recently lead the establishment charge to put paid to Sarah Palin, by commenting that she was beautiful and she should go back to Alaska.

So when Barbara Bush says the country has had enough Bush’s you better take notice. This is about as close to the Republican Establishment thinking that you can get. This especially so when rationally, on its face, Jed has the credentials. He is highly intelligent, likeable, moderate, a former popular Governor of the swing state of Florida, married to a Latino, a recent convert to Catholism, fluent in Spanish and an open access to the richest donors in the Republican Establishment.

WHAT “ENOUGH BUSHES” MEANS TO BARBARA.

 Personal level.

* On a personal level Barbara Bush has had enough. Born to enact a life of public service and noblesse oblige she has done so to the age of eighty-seven. So enough is enough. Barbara has seen the devastation and toll high office in the US takes. Her family has done their bit. She has seen at all.

* She saw her husband, Bush 41, politically crucified after he, in the country’s interests, raised taxes. This after promising at a Republican Convention “Read my lips no more taxes”. The fact that there were changing circumstances that necessitated his decision was irrelevant. To her mind the electorate cruelly cast him aside and he left decades of public service, humiliated.

* She is now witnessing the lampooning of her Bush 43 who, in spite of all of his efforts, is regarded at as best as a joke and at worst a liar who was responsible for the death and maiming of tens of thousands of Americans and putting America deep into debt. While time will probably be more generous to his legacy, in the here and now, the more he and his name is out of the public eye the better.

* So let other families do their share. The time has come to enjoy your children and great grand children. Leave us Bushes alone!

Political level

* Maybe if Barbara Bush believed that Jed Bush had a chance of becoming the next President she would have had a different message. However, she didn’t want a Bush being manipulated into being the last Establishment Republican hope and the emotional and physical exhaustion that would accompany what would be an exercise in futility,

* She realized that Bush 43’s brand of compassionate conservatism had lead to the formation of the Tea Party and that no – one with the name Bush and everything that it stood for could get the Party nomination easily. The Tea Party is the base of Republican Party and if somehow they could be split, as Rove was able to do to get Romney the nomination, then Jed would be massacred in a Presidential election.

* The Republican Party has moved from the old boy white male exclusivity that it was comfortable with for so many years and the Republican establishment doesn’t like what has taken its place. The Republican Congress has moved from the traditional role of compromise where Congress comes to terms with a sitting President to confrontation and paralysis of the country.  This does not sit well with the moderates whom Jed would need.

* More significantly the Tea Party dominated Republican Party are on the wrong side of everything – Guns, Gay Rights, Women’s Rights, Immigration, Latinos, the middle class and nothing meaningful is being done to change this. By their own analyses they project an image of meanness and being the Party meeting the needs of the rich.  In fact all that together with the financial policies that were rejected by the electorate are still being defiantly adhered to by the Tea Party dominated Republican Congressional team.

* The perception is Hillary is unbeatable as she is ahead of every possible contender in so called marginal States by at least 10%. While there is many a slip between cup and lip in Presidential races, as Hillary herself would testify to, this belief is becoming such a consensus that at the very least it will be a self -fulfilling prophecy. Everyone believes that the Country is now ready for a Woman President.

* Added to all of this is that the Obama Social Network machine has been honed and serves as a powerful tool to mobilize voters and public opinion. The Republicans are decades behind.

* The only commodity the Republicans are not short off is money. However, most of this is going to the Tea Party and the 2014 Primaries are scheduled to be a battle between Rove Establishment money versus Koch Brothers Tea Party money. Now if Rove could win convincingly then maybe just maybe the Republicans could begin changing positions and policies that just might be in tune with the electorate. This Jay H. Ell believes would only be a beginning and too little to late.

WHAT “ENOUGH BUSHES” MEANS TO THE WORLD

So at the end of the day Momma Bush did not just shoot her mouth off. Hers was a reasoned assessment of what Jed’s chances would be. The decision was against her core value system that had seen her husband and two sons through lives of service that they were born too. Jed she had always believed would be the one to follow 41 and now she had come to the realization that this was not to be. It could not have been an easy conclusion and her public airing of it has made it difficult for Jed to run. She could have so easily said that it was up to him tra la la and that she doesn’t interfere. But she does and she has and it would be remarkable if he went against his mother’s “advice”.

But it also means that Barbara Bush has written the epitaph to the Republican Party as she and everyone else has known it for the past 70 years. This was the Republican Party that was a blend of Eisenhower pragmatism and Barry Goldwater conservatism.  The Party that recovered from the disaster of Herbert Hoover and actually won back power after Franklin Roosevelt had so dominated the mid 20^th Century. There were 8 years of Eisenhower, 8 years of Nixon/Ford and 12 years of Reagan/Bush 41 and yet another 8 years of Bush 43.

Now it is all over. The Libertarians and fundamentalists with their quaint economic and social policies have taken the GOP over in the form of the Tea Party. While the old GOP establishment remains in denial Barbara has called it quits and, if she can help it, at least take her family with her so that Thanksgiving gatherings can just be about the grandchildren and great grandchildren.