OBAMA'S BIPARTISAN FISCAL INITIATIVE

OBAMA’S BIPARTISAN FISCAL INITIATIVE

Anyone, who is aware as to how politics works, recognizes that Obama’s fiscal initiative to the Republicans and his recent public fraternizing with the Congress did not occur in a vacuum.  Firstly, Obama had to be persuaded that this was the way to go and then he had to be sure of the response that his offer might evoke from the Republicans and how it would affect his public standing.

OBAMA’S POSITION

Till recently Obama had given up negotiating with the Republicans as a lost cause. In fact the Republican Civil War seemed to preclude any cooperation and compromise. (Blog: GOP Civil War Sabotages Obama Talks, March 2013). In addition he was doing very nicely whipping up more and more public support for his positions and had not stopped being in the campaign mode just because he had won the election.

Obviously, he must have been advised that he could not continue his campaigning forever and he had to get into negotiation with what Lincoln’s Secretary of State, Seward called, “That rats’ nest …. with its talentless hicks and hacks…”.  It cannot be co – incidence that he had dinner with the Clintons a week or so earlier as nobody but nobody knows the game better than them. Also several of his new administration, including his new Chief of Staff, all have had experience on working on the hill. This is the way you finally get things done.

But Obama had an axe to grind. The Republicans had rejected his many advances in his first term. This so much so that Michael Moore, one of his biggest supporters, belittled his endless overtures to the Republicans. Moore did not know if he could support him for a second term. Moore compared him with a suitor that was rejected again and again and couldn’t get the message. In fact, Obama has borne the GOP snubs with dignity. These snubs have been private as well as public. Invitations to the White House were rejected with arrogance and bravado. Recently Obama held a private showing of Lincoln. In attendance were all the stars as well as Spielberg but Boehner and McConnell had “scheduling conflicts”. This behavior is gross. As the Reverend Sharpton maintained he disliked Bush 43 but he always accepted and prioritized invitations to the White House as a matter of form and out of respect for the Office.

So Obama could have just sat back and watch the Republicans disintegrate. However, this was not moving his agenda along and also what had he to lose? If the Republicans could not come to any accommodation, in the teeth of such public gestures, that would push their stocks even lower and if they did agree this would push Obama’s stature even higher.

So if it was good enough for Lincoln, Clinton and not to mention LBJ, it had to be good enough for Obama. So the backroom overtures began and the talks with the Republicans were put into the works. Obama began working the phones and all the other operatives did their thing like putting out feelers, arranging meetings and the like.

THE REPUBLICAN POSITION.

Indeed it was the Civil War within the Republican Party that had paralyzed any possibility of legislation let alone fiscal talks that would involve compromise. (Blog: GOP Civil War Sabotages Obama Talks, March 2013). Boehner, Republican leader of the House of Representatives could not control his caucus and was wary about putting his Speakership on a line. So Boehner could not negotiate with any authority. McConnell, Republican Senate Minority Leader, had to worry about a Primary threat from the Tea Party if he appeared to be too accommodating.

The weakened Republican leadership could not get involved. However, there was nothing to stop individual Senate Republican members from being party to the bipartisan initiative.  Ideally the main thrust should come from the Senate because there the Democrats were in the majority. Also, as Boehner had so inelegantly put it, he needed the Senate to get of its ass and pass legislation. If the Senate did so with a big majority and in a bipartisan fashion it could make it easier for Boehner to pressure his own caucus or allow a free vote where the Establishment Republicans could join the Democrats and pass the Senate’s legislation. So lo and behold twelve Senators went to dinner.

WHO ARE THE TWELVE REPUBLICAN SENATORS?

Twelve is a lot of Republican Senators, more than a quarter of their number. They would create a real healthy majority in the Senate if a reasonable bipartisan deal was agreed to. It was not a surprise that 11 of the 12 were not running in 2014 so they could have no Primary threat from the Tea Party. Only one Lindsey Graham South Carolina is up for election and he is very well ensconced in his seat.

Of the twelve Senators four have name recognition. Graham and McCain have seniority and clout but policy wise they are really all over the show. They recently attacked Rand Paul the Senate Tea Party leader in the first major public Congressional spat between the two Republican factions.  They, also, have on occasion championed very conservative positions. The most important factor about McCain and Graham is that they have been around a long long time and know how Washington works. Tom Coburn is a fiscal and social conservative and has to be culturally a Tea Party supporter.  The fourth well-known Senator, Saxby Chambliss, is actually resigning from the Senate and has strong conservative credentials but has participated in bipartanship legislation.

Of the remaining eight Senators 4 come from States that Obama won, New Hampshire, New England, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So those Senators have a big stake in being constructive. Three come from States that Romney won handily, Indiana, Tennessee and North Dakota and the remaining Senator is from North Carolina that Romney barely won.

THE HOUSE

The Senate has to be the centerpiece of this exercise but there had to be some public involvement from the House of Representatives so Obama met Paul Ryan, Head of the Republican Budget Committee and his Democratic counterpart Chris Van Hollen. This was not for negotiation but just for form.

Now Paul Ryan, the beaten Republican Vice Presidential candidate is the Republican guru on finance. It was Ryan’s financial policies that were soundly defeated in the 2012 election.  This has not impacted his approach a jot and he has just proposed an even more radical budget as the Republican policy. Ryan, to the amazement of all, balances his 2013 budget by axing Obamacare, ending Medicare as it is presently constituted, gutting Medicaid and has several other spending cuts. There is not one source of revenue in his proposed budget. His lack of insight flabbergasted even the Fox interviewer who blurted out “That is not going to happen”.  So the Republican Establishment leadership is letting Ryan do his thing and carry on with denial of reality.  (Blog: The Republicans Ongoing Denial of Reality, December 2012).

RATIONALE AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

 This looks a pretty balanced bunch of Republican Senators who would have credibility if a deal could be worked out. So this dinner has to have been in the works a long time ago and the Republican delegation carefully chosen. Further, there is no way that this did not have the blessing of the Republican leadership in Congress. This was also their best way for McConnell and Boehner– stay out of the fray to keep their positions safe. If the Senate twelve work out a deal with Obama that would mean the Senate would pass it with a big majority and ostensibly McConnell would have had nothing to do with it. Boehner from the House of Representatives could legitimately allow an open vote in the House with such Senate support. The compromise legislation with Democratic and some Republican support would then pass the House, Obama would sign the fiscal legislation and we can all live happily ever after.

The Senate meeting with Obama is the tip of the iceberg of what has to be going on both before and after the confab. All the Senators that attended the Obama dinner gave the thumbs up. So all are publicly on board.  The Establishment Leadership of Republican Party has maneuvered a situation whereby there maybe compromise and they are nowhere in sight.

This all means that the Establishment component of the Republican Party will have achieved a victory in that the Party will no longer be seen obstructing everything and anything. In the process The Tea Party with their simplistic fiscal policy will make themselves look ridiculous as they continue to oppose consensus and hang on to their policies that were soundly rejected by the electorate.

Of course this has a long way to go but the framework is in place. Obama wants a deal for many reasons. The economy is picking up; unemployment has dropped to 7.7%. and the stock market is going gangbusters. Companies are also sitting on vast amounts of cash waiting for the go ahead to invest in manpower and plant. The sequester and the other GOP filibusters on the economy may well halt this recovery and that would reflect poorly on Obama even if the Republicans are the cause. A deal will help his leadership and legacy. On the other hand Obama cannot give to much as he will infuriate his base. He did not run on cutting expenditure on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. (Blog: Obama Must Not Cave Again, November 2012).

So on the face it is a win - win situation. The Republican Party will be able to move from their lunatic fringe position and the Establishment faction can gain some credibility with the electorate. The Democrats will obtain some of the legislation for revenues that they have been screaming for and the electorate, over 70% of whom favor a budget made up of increased revenues as well as spending cuts, will finally be represented.

This whole exercise can be seen as another battle in the Republican Civil War and an attempt to align the electorate’s preferences with Legislation. Whatever it is, it is still a long shot that those “hicks and hacks” can get their act together and cobble an acceptable fiscal deal that the country actually wants and voted for.