BYE BYE SARAH (PALIN)

Eighteen months ago the word Palin in this blog heading would have been superfluous. But Sarah has been out of the limelight for such a long time – 12 months is such a long time in politics - that she has almost been forgotten. Two short years ago she was center stage calling the shots. There is little doubt that she called all the Republican shots in the 2010 mid term elections. In that election the Democrats, to quote President Obama received a “shellacking”. An endorsement from Sarah Palin meant Republican Primary success. She was the Tea Party and the Tea Party had the same approval ratings as the GOP. Sarah was the keynote speaker at all their major meetings including massive gatherings in Washington. As a result in 2010 the Republicans took over the House of Representatives but lost Senate seats that they felt they could have won were it not for Sarah’s unelectable Tea Party Republican candidates. (Blogs: GOP, Presidency and Sarah Palin and the Tea Party, The New Congress and Palin).

Jay H. Ell confidently felt that should she run in the Republican Primaries in 2012 she would get the nod. In fact he wrongly predicted that she would run. She controlled the base of the Republican Party and also told mommy Bush and Karl Rove to jump in the lake. Why she didn’t run is really the big mystery and in retrospect was the beginning of the end of Sarah, at least for now.

BIG BUCKS

All her newly found fame resulted in record-breaking earnings. Her book “Going Rogue” sold 2 million copies, her TV series on Alaska had record breaking viewership, and her honoraria for speaking were up there with former Presidents. She landed massive TV contracts with Fox earning an estimated $158 per word she spoke over three years - three million dollars for almost saying nothing both literally and figuratively. Nobody had combined politics and entertainment as effectively and successfully as Sarah had.

So why did it come as no surprise that Fox terminated her lucrative contract and offered her a token, by her standards, salary that she refused? Why is she leaving the stage with barely a whimper?

THE DOWNFALL

• Simplistically, pundits are correlating her fall from grace with the loss of support of the Tea Party. The Tea Party approval ratings have dropped to about 25% and only 8% of the electorate claim to be Tea Party members. However, the Tea Party still has a stranglehold on the base in a large number of GOP constituencies. On the National scene nothing has changed in Presidential politics. This can be exemplified by the fact that Christie is the only GOP candidate that could win a Presidential election yet he has no chance of getting the Republican nomination, at present, against the likes of the right wingers Ryan, Jindal and Paul. So in the real politick situation Sarah still could be a mover and shaker.
• However, Sarah called it quits the moment she decided not to run in the 2012 Presidential election. She took this decision relatively early and seemed to lose interest. She backed a real loser in the GOP Primaries, Newt Gingrich, Even though Newt like several others took the lead in the Republican Primaries as the Republican faithful were looking to anyone but Romney. Had she herself been a candidate, she, Jay H Ell believes, would have been the Republican nominee. If one looks at the other nonentities that, at one stage or another gave Romney a run for his money – Santorum, Cain, Perry, Trump, does anyone even remember who they are, besides Trump. (BLOGS: Still Anyone But Romney?, For Sale: Republican Nomination and Romney – The Grand Old Party’s last Hoorah).
• As the Republican candidate Sarah would have still been a somebody even though Obama would have also easily beaten her. She would have been de facto leader of the Republican Party with massive base support. Now she is opting to be a nobody.

SO WHY DID SHE CALL IT QUITS?

So why did Sarah call it quits after her short meteoric political career?  Jay H. Ell simply believes she simpy got bored.

If one looks at her resume it shows brief flirtations in several positions, each a short space of time. In 1992 she was elected to the Wasilla City Council. In 1996 she won the Wasilla Mayoral Contest. In 2003, after an unsuccessful bid for Lieutenant Governorship, she became Chairman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Three years later in 2006 she won the Alaskan Governorship. She was nominated in 2008 as McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee and sapped all the oxygen on the Republican side of the campaign. After loosing to Obama and Biden she had had enough of being Alaskan Governor and resigned in 2009.

Between 2009 and 2011 was her most productive period. She made all that money, by book writing, lecturing and TV productions and FOX. She also coped with her daughter, Bristol’s celebrity status, out of wedlock child, dancing contests, controversial book writing attacking her and the like. She was THE central focus around which the Tea Party formed. She was the kingmaker in the 2010 Republican Party election and a top contender for the 2012 Republican nomination.

There is an argument that she moved as quickly from “job” to “job”, as she did, as a result of her political ambition rather than boredom or being unable focus on any project for any length of time. This is really counterintuitive as why would she call it quits when after less than two decades of political activity she was in a position to go for the top job in politics.

No the talented Sarah was bored and had had enough. (There is no doubt that having all that money must have played some part in her decision). It will be interesting to see what she does now. She has managed to do nothing for about a year. She was hardly in evidence in the 2012 campaign and has done nothing since. She is not yet 50 years old and three years younger than Barack Obama so she has a way to go. It is also remotely possible she saw the way the country was going and did not want to be on the wrong side of history. Still one wonders what she will do next after she is tired of being bored?

Your guess is good as Jay H. Ell’s. However, hold onto your seats as there is no way they are going to keep Sarah down in Wasilla after she has seen Washington.