OBAMA v NRA = POLITICAL WIN FOR OBAMA

      
      Since the NEWTOWN massacre there have been a 1120
      gun deaths including at least 15 children......... The US 
     averages 87 gun deaths a day and 183 injured - University
    of Chicago Crime Laboratory and Centers of Disease Control

A new steely, tough, no nonsense Obama has emerged. One of his top priorities is Gun Control. It is not gun control in a vacuum. It follows the Newtown disaster - the latter was mentioned in his inauguration speech.  (BLOG: GUNS Obama, the NRA, GOP = Stalemate?) 

The mantra is the emotive, “We must protect our children”. The Gifford – Kelley, gun control initiative also kicked off with a TV ad with a message from the mother of her 9 year old child who was slaughtered in the Tucson massacre. (BLOG: THE TUSCON MASSACRE and AMERICAN CULTURE – CAN THERE BE A SOLUTION?). Also the citizens of Newtown Connecticut are forming groups to see to it that the children did not die in vain. The Obama Organizing for Action Committees, that are the continuation of the scores of activist groups that got him elected, has gun control as one of their top priorities.

At the Press Conference announcing his recommendations and executive orders Obama was accompanied by four children who had written to him on gun control following the Newtown slaughter. He quoted from their letters to him that echoed his message of sorrow at the tragedy and the need to do something about not letting it occur again, Also in evidence at the Press Conference were the parents of the Newtown atrocity.

TASK FORCE.

Obama put Biden in charge of a task force to come up with broad ranging and comprehensive recommendations. This Biden has done within one month. He interviewed all and sundry – law enforcement,  the video game entertainment industry, mental health organizations, victims' families, gun owner associations, gun dealers, activist citizen groups and of course the NRA.  The outcome is that Obama announced the broadest and most wide ranging gun initiative ever.

Biden came up with a comprehensive list of proposals some of which require executive action, which the President himself could put into effect, and others that required Congressional Action. The latter related to assault weapon bans, bans on magazines containing more than 10 rounds and far stricter gun registration and background checks. It is the purchase restrictions that had already created a raucous and will in the forthcoming weeks be the basis of what will become a landmark battle between a chief Republican paymaster, the NRA and the GPO itself, on the one hand, and Democrats and Obama on the other.

The very fact that the battle has even reached this stage represents progress. The NRA is so intimidatory and is perceived to hold so much power that no one would suggest legislation let alone try and bring it to the floor. Even when an assault weapon gunned one of the House of Representative’s own, Representative Gabby Giffords, there was no hint of legislation. 

The NRA has been a consistent donor to Congress races over the years. The lion share of the money going to Republican legislators. Each legislator is graded according to his or support on guns. The average grade for Republicans is an A and for Democrats a D. These donations are consistent. According to a Washington Post article a one hundred and twenty eight members of Congress have received a total of $4,3 million dollars since 1990.

In some ways it is yet another fight with the unelected lobby groups that have had held so much sway over Congress. In of itself that makes the outcome very significant.

BATTLE LINES DRAWN - NRA

In a short month the fight has already been defined.  The NRA has featured this as the biggest fight of the century. They have framed the debate in terms of the President’s decision to remove second amendment rights. This in spite of the fact that Obama again and again that he supports these rights.

Thus the NRA is sticking to its guns, (pun intended) and offered a solution that, predictably, involves more guns. While having armed security or teacher sharp shooters might be the favored choice in a few situations it is obviously not going to be a serious solution to this problem. Obama in fact in his executive actions did not exclude schools from making this choice.

The broad basis of the NRA’s argument is their literal interpretation of the Second Amendment. Simplistically, they believe it protects the democratic right for citizens to be in a position to shoot whomever they like, whenever they like, as often as they like and with any weapon they like. They then say that in order to counter abuses of these rights, all the other citizens have the democratic right to shoot back at them, whenever they like, as often as they like and so forth and so on.

The NRA agrees to background checks for those citizens who choose to have them. At the same time they also support the right of those citizens who don’t want background checks. The latter have the right to buy an AK 47 on the Internet, privately or at a gun show without a background check.

The NRA has said that as assault weapons ban will not pass the House of Representatives. Some people see the NRA statement as a threat rather than a prediction. Whatever it is it definitely represents the situation at the moment. While a few Republican Senators have indicated their support for Feinstein’s Bill on the banning on assault weapons and magazines there is even doubt of the Senate outcome as some Democrats are elected from NRA dominated constituencies.

The NRA has stated that since this controversy started they have garnered another 250,000 members. Also the gun dealers have claimed more sales of all types of weapons. Obama has argued that the latter has occurred as a result of the hysteria that the NRA has evoked by stating Obama is going to ban them from purchasing of guns.

The NRA has started its ad campaign already. The ad claims that Obama is an “elitist hypocrite” because he is skeptical about armed guards being the answer to school violence when his girls, featured in the ad, are protected by the Secret Service!  The White House has expressed repugnance at the ad.  Chris Christie has called the ad reprehensible and Susan Eisenhower has reminded all that even Eisenhower’s grandchildren had secret service protection. She called the ad an indecent attack that hurts the President, his family and democracy.

Support for the NRA from credible sources is scant. Rand Paul  says Obama is unconstitutional but cannot point where and how.  While GOP National Chairman Priebus labels Obama's gun initiative as a power grab with arguing to much about the merits.

It is obvious that the NRA are not remotely interested in swaying public opinion. They have decided just to fire up their base and terrify Congress into submission.

BATTLE LINES DRAWN – OBAMA

 The President has said he would throw the full weight behind of his Presidency behind this initiative. Obama may have changed his resolve but he has not changed his modus operandi.  He has stated that the only way we can have change is if the American people demand it. The fight among the Public is already won. Obama’s objective now is to turn public opinion into a tidal wave that Congress cannot ignore.

Obama has the microphone, he developed the Internet as a political tool and as his opponents correctly charge, he is permanently in campaign mode. He also has press conferences, visits to constituencies, State of the Union addresses, inaugural addresses, photo ops, weekly radio talks and the like to keep him constantly in the news. The Republicans have no persona that can begin to command an audience. The only figure that can gain any sort of attention is Christie and he has already registered his disgust at the NRA.

The Brady Center for Gun Violence recently mandated a poll among Gun Owners conducted by Fred Lutz the Republican pollster. The Center issued the following statement:

“Republican pollster Frank Lutz documents that gun owners support common sense gun legislation and believe that personal freedom and public safety can co-exist. Lutz found that 87% of non-NRA gun owners, and 74% of NRA gun owners support requiring a criminal background check of anyone purchasing a gun”.

The Pew Foundation found that 85% of those surveyed favored comprehensive background checks of the sort proposed by Obama. Impressive majorities were found in the banning of semi automatic and assault weapons, certain types of multiple ammunition magazines as well as a comprehensive Federal database but here the divide between Republicans and Democrats was more marked.

The public support seems to be increasing with a recent poll the percentage supporting the whole package of gun control at nearly 60%.

LEGISLATURES

States are rethinking gun laws in this climate. The more populous States are more likely to tighten gun control. New York State is the first since Newtown to change its gun legislation to the toughest on the books ever. The Republican controlled States are very wary about what may be imposed on them and the odd official or legislator threatens defiance but this is early days.

Diane Feinstein has introduced comprehensive legislation to outlaw all the types of automatic guns and their ammunition and is confident of Senate support. The question is how the Republicans in the House will respond. Is this the issue they can defy Obama on?  This they can do and the country will not be plunged into financial chaos. They will be on the wrong side of history but as Jay H. Ell has blogged again and again they are in total denial of reality anyway.

New York Mayor Bloomberg, with all his financial resources, is motivating his 800 strong Mayors’ group to caucus their respective Congressmen. Cities and towns, too, have limited rights to effect gun legislation. Several have already done so.

NO GUNS FOR THE MENTALLY ILL OR VIOLENT

It is universally accepted that mentally unstable patients should not be able to obtain guns. In order to provide care for these patients, Obama issued an executive order on what medical conditions Medicaid should cover, another on Insurance Exchanges under Obamacare and yet another to finalize mental health parity regulations. He also promised to get Kathleen Sibelius to launch a national dialogue on Mental Health.

(The issue of the management of the mentally ill is crucial to any proposal. (See Blog:  THE TUSCON MASSACRE and AMERICAN CULTURE – CAN THERE BE A SOLUTION?) However, no one wants to pay for the diagnosis and the management of mental health problems. Those who think the way the NRA think have been responsible for systematically closing mental health facilities. Where there are fiscal cuts these services and facilities are the first to go. It would really impress Jay H. Ell if the NRA poured some of its millions into resolving the comprehensive diagnosis and management, of what they have insisted is the only cause of this mayhem). 

(Ask any Emergency Physician what a regular feature boarding psychiatric patients, for days on end, is. These patients have not subtle signs they have been certified as either violent or suicidal requiring immediate hospitilization for their own and or society's safety. And they just linger in emergency rooms because there are simply no mental health facilities beds. The NRA again would increase its credibility if they supported Obama's Mental Health Care improvements and the money needed to implement them.)

Another Obama executive order is that a Doctor also will have the responsibility to report threats of violence to authorities and could also question patients about gun safety at home as part of preventive care. The American Academy of Family Physicians have already recommended it. Obama also lifted a 15-year-old ban on the Center for Disease Control doing research on Gun Violence. The latter ban was as a result of NRA pressure.

Obama’s other actions include a general tightening up on existing gun control, registration, and  mechanisms to provide information between States so that all loopholes in the existing laws are closed.

THE GAUNTLET HAS BEEN THROWN DOWN

Obama really has nothing to lose politically. If Congress agrees it is a victory. If they don’t, it lends further credence that the Republicans have been taken over by a bunch of crazies controlled by their unelected paymasters and are out of tune with the electorate. The NRA is giving Obama his best shot at breaking the power of the lobbies – albeit a long shot. In case the NRA has forgotten what precipitated this, -it was the slaughter of children whom Obama is now trying to protect.

The NRA on the other hand believes that it will achieve a major victory if they stop this legislation. They are mistaken. The middle 10 or 15% of the electorate, that really dictate the future of the country, will be more and more repulsed by their extremism. This is another miscalculation by the right.  One wonders how they envisage their end game.

Obama has made it quite clear that he supports the second amendment, but with rights come responsibilities and the public, even the NRA gun owners and Ronald Reagan agree with him.