OBAMA, REAGAN, CLINTON, NETANYAHU IN THE WEEK THAT WAS

Last week saw several adjustments by political players that will redefine the political landscape for the next 4 years. All the activities were really footnotes to Obama’s bold unambiguous second inaugural speech. The Republicans are slowly moving away from their ongoing denial of reality and facing up to the world as articulated by Obama. Much of the contents of this blog will be expanded in the future but now is as good a time as any to look at the big picture.

OBAMA’S INAUGURAL AND HIS REAGANESQUE CHALLENGE – COMETH THE HOUR COMETH THE MAN

An emboldened Obama laid out his second term agenda, either implicitly or explicitly, in his address. This was followed up with his usual campaign like approach to get the electorate on his side and thereby pressure the legislature. This is his preferred modus operandi, as he has neither the stomach nor the contacts to use the traditional arm-twisting method to get legislators to translate his priorities into law.

The Republican response was that this inaugural was the most radical ever heard. Obama had heralded the end of Reaganism. Obama, profound as his oratorical powers are, intelligent and charismatic, as he is, no more created Obamaism than, Reagan, “The Great Communicator”, changed the direction of the country to conservatism. Both Obama and Reagan helped the electorate define and verbalize where the country was at a certain phase in its history. Obama, in fact, sees himself more in the Reagan mold than any other President in America’s history. Obama may admire Lincoln more than any other but his style and approach coincides with that of Reagan. Obama also hopes to emulate Regan and turn public sentiment into legislative reality.

Obama can take credit for his lead in his seminal achievement – the Reform of Health Care. There he led from the front although, true to style, he left the politics to Pelosi and Reid. He is also truly a man with a mission and is only to happy to dish the credit around and use anyone he can to help him. (BLOG: “Obama – The Enigma”).

So the issues of regulating the free market, care for the less fortunate, tax reform, climate change, gun control, equality for all including gays, support of woman’s rights, getting out of wars and giving peace a chance, immigration reform, education and recreating the American middle class have the support of the majority of every opinion poll on these subjects. Reaganism has run its course and caused an imbalance in society that needs to be corrected. Also the demographics of the country have changed dramatically and Obama’s agenda and support reflect that fact. Nobody could have articulated, marshaled the support, and utilized modern communication techniques better than Obama in heralding a new era in American history.

Obama’s problem is that the Legislature and the Judiciary are not keeping up with these trends and the challenge will be to translate what the majority of society wants against very powerful forces that wish to maintain the status quo.

REPUBLICAN POLITICAL COUNTERS

The Republicans may no longer be in total denial but their responses were all over the map at their North Carolina Winter Meeting. (BLOG: The Republicans” Ongoing Denial of Reality”).

* Rationalization

There was rationalization, “We must stop being the stupid party. We should behave like adults” – Bobby Jindal, the Louisiana Governor maintained. Haley Barbour, a former Republican RNC chairman and Governor, agreed with Jindal. “Our Principles were not rejected”, maintained Ryan. (It is really difficult to understand where Ryan is at these days). Organization was the problem as well as a failure to use the modern communication methods, said RNC Chairman Priebus. 

The key consensus point was that there was nothing wrong with the Principles of the Republican Party. Rather the communication of them was the problem. (One cannot believe these people have read their Party Platform and they would want to communicate that!)

Gingrich seems to think the problem was that they were not a “happy party”.

* Change in legislature tactics.

Boehner realized that it was insanity to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result. Twice he has now allowed an open vote in the House of Representatives even though a majority of the Republican caucus was not in favor of the issues. Boehner did not force his threatened showdown on the Debt Ceiling and did not throw the country into crises. He also raised taxes on the rich thereby weakening one of the chief Republican unelected megalomaniac policymakers Grover Norquist. So somehow Boehner seemed to have heard the penny drop. (BLOG: “Obama Must Not Cave Again”)

McConnell and Reid came to some sort of agreement about changing the rules on filibustering in the Senate. McConnell realizing that nearly 400 filibusters did not prevent Obama from getting a second term. (Incidentally the Democratic base feeling is that Reid and the Democratic Senators caved into McConnell).

* Change the rules of the game.

Some Republicans are far more pragmatic and believe the rules of the Electoral College should be changed to allow them to win the Presidency even though they have far fewer votes. They would do this by changing the way States apportion their electoral votes. This mechanism would heavily favor a rural vote in the states and if their suggestions had been in place in this election Romney would have been President!

The reason the Republicans control the House of Representatives with a million and half votes less than the Democrats is because they gerrymandered the constituencies. So maybe the Republicans will give it a go. They were also responsible for voter suppression of minorities in the last election – a fact mentioned in Obama’s inaugural speech.

Re –elected RNC Chairman Priebus is “intrigued” by the proposal to change the rules.

The Virginia Governor, where this was first conceptualized was first moved,“is now not interested”. The Republican State Chairman of Florida has commented that that the party should be more interested in connecting with the electorate than changing the game.

 If the Republicans do attempt this they will alienate the middle further. The bad publicity that this will evoke, the court challenges that would follow will result in a backlash, second to none, orchestrated by the well-organized Democrats. There will be binding State Referenda, to mantain the present system, that are sure to be won by the Democrats with even bigger majorities than Obama received in the election.

* Consensus to reach out to all demographic groups.

There was a consensus that the Republicans must reach out to the new important demographic groups. These include the Latinos and the Gays not to mention the women. To do this they have to unconditionally accept them and not treat them as some type of second-class citizens. You can hardly connect with the Latinos when you want their “illegals” to self deport, you cannot reach out to the Gays if you are proposing constitutional amendments to exclude their marriages, you cannot reach out to women if you are perceived to be dictating how they manage their bodies and health care, you cannot reach out to he poor and elderly if you regard them as “takers”, for example.

 THE BIG REPUBLICAN PROBLEM

The Republican problem is that their base believes they already have the answer. They formed the Tea Party in response initially to Bush’s drunken spending and the belief that Obama was continuing in the same pattern with Obamacare. The Tea Party’s policies however been rejected already. Their policies were seen as antiquated, to put it kindly, and they are further burdened with their social and immigration agendas that are totally out of whack with the electorate and even the Republican establishment. So before the GOP can get to first base they are going to have to fight it out in their own Primaries as to who controls the agenda. (BLOG:  “The GOP – A Mad Hatters Tea Party”).

HILLARY’S CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS

Hillary Clinton’s much awaited hearings in Congress on Benghazi capped a week of examination into the future. (BLOG: Stopping Clinton in 2016 Starts in Benghazi”). It is fair to say that Hillary’s acceptability rating of 67%, the highest in the country, did not drop a percent as a result of the battering she received. By and large none of the Republican heavy weights joined in, with the exception of John McCain. John McCain, a sad shadow of his former self, has thrown dignity to the winds and has something to say on every issue that will ingratiate him with the Tea Party.

It was left to the nonentities, like rookie Senator Johnson of Wisconsin, to lead the attack in the Senate. He was abusive and ignorant. The next day Senator Kerry exposed Johnson. Kerry revealed that Johnson had not attended the classified briefing, with videotapes, on the Benghazi tragedy. Many of his questions to Hillary Clinton would have been answered had he been there. One cannot imagine that Johnson will be reelected in Wisconsin.

Senator Rand Paul, who really fancies himself as a Presidential Candidate, told Clinton that had he been President he would have fired her. The only rise he got out of Clinton was when he asked her whether Libya was shipping arms to Turkey. “Turkey?” responded Clinton incredously, “Turkey?” she repeated to the question that was a total non-sequitor to the proceedings. Mark Rubio, a more serious Republican Presidential candidate was far more polite and respectful in his cross-examination of the icon.

The 5-hour grilling on the Hill included the allegation from South Carolina Representative Jeff Duncan that she let the consulate become a death trap.

She handled it all with Presidential dignity, aplomb and appropriately, - contrite and apologetic when accepting responsibility, tearful when reflecting on the loss of her colleagues, in full command of the facts where required and angry when the Republicans focused more on the initial faulty explanation than they did at trying to prevent this from happening again. Clinton exhibited a polished performance that served more as an opportunity for others to praise her for her monumental term as Secretary of State than the ersatz indignation of her detractors to blemish her presidential credentials.

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT. – COMETH THE TIME COMETH THE WOMAN

The Republican hacks like Jindall and neophytes like Rubio are chanceless against Hillary. Needless to say Christie was nowhere in sight during the Republican post mortem nor was Jeb Bush in evidence. Maybe they are all looking to 2020.

The only realistic opposition to Hillary would be within the Democratic Party itself. Joe Bidden has indicated interest but his rating is 20% below Hillary’s. It is also obvious that there is no way he or anyone would challenge Hillary in a Primary. Bidden has a special relationship with Obama. But Obama is focused enough to realize that the vision needs continuity to complete a transformation. He said as much as in his Inaugural Speech. Obama has taken the most extraordinary step to initiate an interview with Clinton on Sixty Minutes. If he were looking to his immediate future agenda he would have chosen Bidden. However, he has history and his legacy in mind.

Obama all but anointed Hillary in the interview, praising her stellar performance as Secretary of State, referencing her influence on policy and the esteem he, Obama, and her colleagues held her in. Another purpose of this tête à tête was to let the world know that there was no residual animosity between the two and they regarded each other as personal friends.

Hillary has everything in her favor including the Obama machine that will be working for her and not against her. Also she has own infrastructure, Bill, the most popular ex President in a long while, the base of the Party and the establishment on her side. Not to mention the fact that it will be politically correct to elect the first woman President!

She is certainly in sync with the electorate’s agenda. She and Bill were part of the team that provided the platform for Obama’s transformational Presidency. (BLOG; Obama – The Enigma”).

At the moment she would say she is not running. However, it is in her DNA and when the time comes she will be there.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Obama must have taken some satisfaction at the trouncing of Netanyahu in the Israeli election. His Likud Party received 20 out of 160 seats loosing out to a new Centrist Party. (BLOGS: “Netanyahu Has Lost it” and "Israel's Netanyahu, Iran's Ahmadinejad and America's Obama"). By Jon Stewart’s math this means that 85% of Israelis are anti – Semites. Netanyahu will have his work cut out to cobble together a governing coalition. Ironically, Netanyahu’s credibility will largely depend on Obama’s attitude towards him. A far cry from the eloquent but arrogant and swaggering Netanyahu who tried to force Obama’s hand on Iran against his, (Netanyahu’s) own military and security brass’s advice.

(In spite of the underhand smears that Obama is anti Israeli he was credited, in Israel, with financing the dome that largely nullified the Hamas missile attack last year. In that attack he also vigorously defended Israel at the United Nations).

It seems that, contrary to the Administration’s wishful thinking Al Quaeda is alive and well and regrouping in North Africa. Also problems abound arising out of the Arab Spring. Iran still looms large and North Korea chose last week to threaten the US and South Korea.

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

So Obama is where Reagan was in 1985. He has his work cut out to get the country’s legislative direction changed. He has more going for him than Reagan who was far less involved than he is in day-to-day politics. Reagan was said to work a three-hour day. Obama is tireless, has created a massive grassroots support system and will be on the hustings till kingdom come. The Reagan legacy had daddy Bush elected to give him his third term. Obama will back whomever he can to keep the flame burning.

So the week that was, saw the Republicans beginning to emerge from their denial albeit in a dysfunctional fashion. They are facing a traumatic internal struggle for the soul of the Party. The Karl Roves, the Koch brothers, the Adelsohns, the Lunzs, the Norquists, the DeMints, the Pauls and the rest will have to battle it out in the Republican Primaries. (BLOG:  (“The GOP – A Mad Hatters Tea Party”).

Obama has his agenda aligned with the electorate’s wishes. The hard part will be getting the legislature to see it that way too. The Democrats have several viable contenders, with Hillary a frontrunner by a distance, to continue the legacy. The Republicans have one viable candidate, Christie, and the way the stars are aligned at the moment he would not get the Republican nomination.