Thursday, December 20, 2012

EXIT MANDELA: CRY THE BELOVED COUNTRY PART 2




Every time Nelson Mandela enters hospital, and this is becoming more and more frequent, as he becomes more and more frail, reassessments of where post apartheid South Africa is at, resurface. "What is going to happen after Mandela goes?" is the refrain. So great is the icon's influence and aura that well over a decade after he exited the political scene the perception is that the world will still change after he passes. In reality the critiques of the post apartheid era have been out there for some time.

 There are two major perspectives - those from within the country and those from without. There is only one area of agreement between theses two constituencies, namely that Mandela is a saint and probably the most admired statesman of the twenty first century.  For the rest you would believe that those in the country are talking about a different country from the nation those outside are talking about.

In fact the two viewpoints are not at loggerheads. Rather they are looking at two sides of the same coin.

INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTIONS - POST APARTHEID.

 The non violent change of power structure with the majority of the white electorate, led by then apartheid President De Klerk, ceding political power to the black majority; Mandela’s emphasis on no recriminations; Mandela’s maintenance of the infrastructure - particularly the Judiciary; the first “free and fair“ election with it’s iconic news photos of lines of rural voters standing in mile long lines in the field waiting to vote for the first time; the new Constitution; Mandela’s legislative initiatives; the Truth and Conciliation Commission; the resolution of the Black on Black violence; the abolition of the death penalty; the voluntary abandonment of Atomic weapons and Mandela’s international visits created a positive even romanticized view of post apartheid South Africa that still exists today.

In addition the world patted itself on their backs as they, naively, believed that their sanctions had been the catalyst that precipitated the abandonment of apartheid. (For whatever reason the international community have not been so successful in effecting change in a pathetically weak Zimbabwe, for example!).

*Finance and Economy

There is great admiration for the advances made in the Financial and Economic arena. Much of the credit goes to Finance Minister Trevor Emmanuel who was Minister of Finance for a large portion of the post apartheid era. In 1994 Emmanuel was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a” Global Leader For Tomorrow”. Since then he has received numerous international awards.

South Africa reported its first budget surplus in 2007. A combination of increased prosperity, high commodity prices and a wider tax base were credited with the surge of revenue. Manuel increased spending for education, housing and sanitation. Interest rates today are around about 5% as compared to close on 20% at the time of the new regime.

With the lifting of sanctions trade and trade agreements blossomed. Trade increased particularly in agricultural products. South Africa led once again in precious metals and became the third largest exporter of coal. Investment in the country is increasing annually and last year it was a record 83 billion rand.

* G20 Recognition

The biggest recognition of South Africa’s new status was election to the G20. This is a body made of 20 countries. The G20 studies, reviews, and promotes high-level discussion of policy issues pertaining to the promotion of international financial stability, and seeks to address issues that go beyond the responsibilities of any one organization. With the G-20 growing in stature its leaders announced on September 25, 2009, that the group would replace the G8 as the main economic council of wealthy nations

In 2007 Trevor Manuel chaired this group. South Africa is the only African country on the body and is in very impressive company. Several European Countries were somewhat miffed that they did not make the cut.

South Africa has membership of several international bodies and has of course returned to the British Commonwealth.

* World Cup

The Soccer World Cup, which is the most widely covered television event in the world also did the Country’s image no harm. Complete coverage of this event was seen in the USA for the first time. The efficiency, the well controlled crowds, the modern big cities and the general air of normality and peace lent even more credence to the fact that South Africa was a haven of tranquility and progress.

*Mandela

Mandela is reported as daily news. With his recent hospital admission bulletins are issued on every newscast. The CNN website, for example have a mast at the top. Included on it are all the hot topics and people in the news such as Obama, The Fiscal Cliff, Syria and of course Mandela. As Mandela is South Africa this reinforces the perception of South Africa as a modern day miracle

*Tourism

South Africa is increasingly become a major tourist attraction bringing in foreign capital and adding to the positive image. The vastly improved airports, hotels, tourist attractions and game parks have resulted in the number of international flights to South Africa increasing by several hundred percent over the years.

* Negative Press

Very little negative is reported in the International media. Mbeki joined the whackos with his stance on AIDS but that was drowned with the successful Mandela initiative to combat and treat AIDS in South Africa and the rest of the world. Zuma is regarded as “odd” with very little coverage of his foibles. The recent mine unrest received some coverage but that died down.

Only El Jazeera recently ran a story entitled, “Sorry Madiba corruption killed your ANC”.

On the international scene South Africa is still basking in its post apartheid image and it appears that it will take a bloody revolution to alter that perception.

SOUTH AFRICAN PERCEPTIONS  - POST APARTHEID:

There are not too many constituencies, within the country, that are very happy with the status quo. Other than the ruling Party and their "hangers on" there is disillusionment, frustration and anger. Sadly, much criticism is coming from the old guard of ANC leaders who sacrificed so much for the new nonracial state. On the other end of the spectrum there are the whites that fear that South Africa will become another African basket case.

* Corruption

Corruption seems to head the list of growing criticisms against the ruling ANC. The anger is largely directed at Zuma who has received large sums of money from various sources. Zuma has always been under a cloud ever since criminal charges of racketeering were dropped in 1999. He received payments from Schabir Shaik totaling over 4 million rand over 4 years. Shaik and his family received several governmental lucrative deals. The Judge in Shaik’s trial made it quite clear that he felt Zuma had a strong case to answer. In 1998 Mandela disciplined Zuma over his behavior and personally gave Zuma funds to settle his debts.

The allegations against Zuma are legion and have continued over the years. The most recent one relates to vast sums of money that are being used to build his Presidential campus.

However, it goes deeper than that there is a perception that the political elite is putting their hands in the cookie jar. For example in the Travelgate scandal 40 parliamentarians were found to have  used public funds for their private travel. Even minor officials are being accused of taking bribes and the perception that bribery is rife. In 2011 Zuma had to fire 2 ministers for bribery.

Zuma, finally, had to sanction a commission into the corruption, the results of which all are awaiting.  Former ANC Deputy President Molanthe, who unsuccessfully ran against Zuma, at the recent ANC Congress and hence for the Presidency has appealed for a stop of the culture of corruption in Government,

* Black Economic Empowerment Program.

This program was introduced in order to get more Africans in the Civil Service and in Private Business. The program has had critics from all sides of the racial divide. It was supposed to be a type of affirmative action program but there does not seem much built into it that is designed to provided extra training or skills to those who have been previously disadvantaged. The criticism is that these appointments are often political favors and those obtaining them have not the skills to carry out the job at hand. Or worse, in the case of businesses, nobody wants them to do anything as they are seen as” tokens”.

Some argue that is why ESKOM for example is in such a mess.

The other result of this policy is that skilled whites are replaced, demoted or “need not apply”. Then these often leave for oversea  or just foment resentment.

Inevitably this program has been extended to Universities and other arenas of activity

* Open Borders Policy

While this dates back to the moment the post apartheid government came into power the effect and burdens on the State are very much being felt. With the high unemployment rate this continues to cause resentment and is a festering sore particularly in the black labor market.

* Entitlement Society

Some believe that too much of an entitlement society is being produced in order to meet the expectations of the black electorate while others believe that the ANC other than create a significant black middle class have not made a meaningful attempt to educate and create the jobs for a population of 50,000,000.


* Freedom of the Press and Freedom of Movement.

A law to prevent the “publication of Government secrets” has just been passed amidst massive protest reminiscent of the anti apartheid demonstrations. The legislation, which still must undergo further steps to become law, would make it a crime, punishable by lengthy prison terms, to disseminate anything that any state agency regards as classified. Critics have called the legislation a throwback to the apartheid regime’s harsh repression and say it is meant to protect corrupt officials from press scrutiny.

The Protection of Information Bill, as the legislation is called, must still clear a national council of provinces before it takes effect. Activists have said they will challenge it in South Africa’s constitutional court. Ironically, the latter was wisely set up by the Mandela regime to prevent the repressive legislation of the apartheid regime from ever occurring again.

The Zuma regime has not been too hot on human rights either. Their refusal to allow the Dalai Lama, a visa, for example, had Nobel Laureate Archbishop Tutu exclaim that he could not believe that he would ever have to pray for the downfall of the ANC.

* Crime.

There is one subject that evokes much emotion. The argument by the Government is that the crime rate has in effect come down since 1995. They argue that the whites were not much concerned by the murders in the townships that are now have decreased. The opposition focus on the murders in the white areas. They also point out that under the apartheid regime homes in the white areas were fortresses and this is nothing new. This issue seems to have lost some of its bite since the trouble free World Cup.

WHERE DOES SOUTH AFRICA STAND IN THE WORLD?

South Africa has not yet nearly reached “basket case” status but it is on its way. At the moment it is only as bad as Brazil by international standards. Brazil, in case anyone has forgotten, is only just emerging out of banana republic status.

The Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI) released recently shows that South Africa has not turned the tide on corruption in the public sector. South Africa now ranks 69th out of 187 countries included in the index. The index measures "perceived levels of public sector corruption" and considers factors such as bribery, abuse of public resources, secretive decision-making, anti-corruption laws and conflicts of interest. Over the last 12 years there has been a consistent downward trend in South Africa's position on the index. South Africa has dropped 31 places in the index between 2001 and 2012.
THE FUTURE

In many ways South Africa stands at the crossroads of what it will represent in the family of nations. The new Republic had a remarkable genesis and was rightly hailed as an example for the whole world. The question is whether South Africa is going to allow a gang of venal thugs to ruin what generations literally fought and died for. Too much sacrifice was made, too much suffering occurred, and too much deprivation was endured to allow  a few fat cats to besmirch their inheritance by naked greed.

The culprits should know that they would not find it easy to triumph as most of them were part of an opposition and resistance that stopped a far more powerful entrenched regime than theirs. The Press that helped them is still intact and will live to fight another day. The social media will, as it has elsewhere, be an added weapon against totalitarianism and corruption. There are also constitutional provisions that never existed previously, to aid those who wish to uphold the rule of law.

FORCES FOR CHANGE. 

Notwithstanding the apparent show of unity at the ANC Conference there is discontent among the electorate.

There is an active opposition that will begin to attract ANC members if this behavior continues. The Democratic Alliance, (DA), is far more influential than the one lonely Progressive Member of Parliament was in the apartheid era. (And remember how much Helen Suzman achieved). Also the DA already is the Government of a whole Province. At present the DA is mainly a Party of whites, those of mixed race and other minorities such as Asians and Indians but there is no reason why it could not attract disillusioned ANC voters.

Or maybe Cyril Ramaphosa, the newly elected Deputy Leader, can turn the ANC around.  He was after all Mandela’s choice as his successor. He was one of the original architects of the new constitution that enshrined human rights. He resigned from politics in the 90’s, having lost out to Mbeki as Mandela’s successor. In the interim he became a highly successful businessman amassing nearly 700 million dollars. He has a high profile as one of the original fighters against apartheid and is relatively young at the age of 60. The fact that he has not been involved in active politics for 16 years and received approximately three quarters of delegate votes at the ANC Congress speaks volumes to his popularity and status and a desire to change the image of the ANC.

There is a thousand pound gorilla at the ANC conference in the form of Julius Malema. The latter is a radical populist who was recently expelled from the ANC for blatant racism and attacking ANC policy. Malema has among his policies the nationalization of the mines. How much support he really has is unknown.  For the moment he is very much been marginalized. Even more so now that the ANC has at the December 2012 Conference officially taken nationalization of the table.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

One thing is for certain and that is Mandela cannot live forever. Nor can his afterglow. It is up to a new generation to carry the torch of freedom and not turn his and everyone’s struggle into an obscene mockery. There is cause for optimism but the further down the regime goes down the slippery slope to totalitarianism the harder it becomes to reverse it.

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