Every time Nelson Mandela enters hospital, and this
is becoming more and more frequent, as he becomes more and more frail,
reassessments of where post apartheid South Africa is
at, resurface. "What is going to happen after Mandela
goes?" is the refrain. So great is the icon's influence and aura
that well over a decade after he exited the political scene the perception
is that the world will still change after he passes. In reality the
critiques of the post apartheid era have been out there for some time.
There are two
major perspectives - those from within the country and those from without.
There is only one area of agreement between theses two constituencies, namely
that Mandela is a saint and probably the most admired statesman of the twenty
first century. For the rest you would believe that those in the
country are talking about a different country from the nation those outside
are talking about.
In fact the two viewpoints are not at loggerheads. Rather
they are looking at two sides of the same coin.
INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTIONS - POST APARTHEID.
The non violent
change of power structure with the majority of the white electorate, led by
then apartheid President De Klerk, ceding political power to the black
majority; Mandela’s emphasis on no recriminations; Mandela’s maintenance of the
infrastructure - particularly the Judiciary; the first “free and fair“ election
with it’s iconic news photos of lines of rural voters standing in mile long
lines in the field waiting to vote for the first time; the new Constitution;
Mandela’s legislative initiatives; the Truth and Conciliation Commission; the
resolution of the Black on Black violence; the abolition of the death penalty; the voluntary abandonment of Atomic
weapons and Mandela’s international visits created a positive even romanticized view of post apartheid South Africa that still exists today.
In addition the world patted itself on their backs as they,
naively, believed that their sanctions had been the catalyst that precipitated
the abandonment of apartheid. (For whatever reason the international community
have not been so successful in effecting change in a pathetically weak
Zimbabwe, for example!).
*Finance and Economy
There is great admiration for the advances made in the Financial
and Economic arena. Much of the credit goes to Finance Minister Trevor Emmanuel
who was Minister of Finance for a large portion of the post apartheid era. In
1994 Emmanuel was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a” Global Leader For
Tomorrow”. Since then he has received numerous international awards.
South Africa reported its first budget surplus in 2007. A
combination of increased prosperity, high commodity prices and a wider tax base
were credited with the surge of revenue. Manuel increased spending for
education, housing and sanitation. Interest rates today are around about 5% as
compared to close on 20% at the time of the new regime.
With the lifting of sanctions trade and trade agreements
blossomed. Trade increased particularly in agricultural products. South Africa
led once again in precious metals and became the third largest exporter of
coal. Investment in the country is increasing annually and last year it was a
record 83 billion rand.
* G20 Recognition
The biggest recognition of South Africa’s new status was
election to the G20. This is a body made of 20 countries. The G20 studies,
reviews, and promotes high-level discussion of policy issues pertaining to the
promotion of international financial stability, and seeks to address issues
that go beyond the responsibilities of any one organization. With the G-20
growing in stature its leaders announced on September 25, 2009, that the group
would replace the G8 as the main economic council of wealthy nations
In 2007 Trevor Manuel chaired this group. South Africa is
the only African country on the body and is in very impressive company. Several
European Countries were somewhat miffed that they did not make the cut.
South Africa has membership of several international bodies
and has of course returned to the British Commonwealth.
* World Cup
The Soccer World Cup, which is the most widely covered
television event in the world also did the Country’s image no harm. Complete
coverage of this event was seen in the USA for the first time. The efficiency,
the well controlled crowds, the modern big cities and the general air of
normality and peace lent even more credence to the fact that South Africa was a
haven of tranquility and progress.
*Mandela
Mandela is reported as daily news. With his recent hospital
admission bulletins are issued on every newscast. The CNN website, for example
have a mast at the top. Included on it are all the hot topics and people in the
news such as Obama, The Fiscal Cliff, Syria and of course Mandela. As Mandela is South Africa this reinforces the
perception of South Africa as a modern day miracle
*Tourism
South Africa is increasingly become a major tourist
attraction bringing in foreign capital and adding to the positive image. The
vastly improved airports, hotels, tourist attractions and game parks have
resulted in the number of international flights to South Africa increasing by
several hundred percent over the years.
* Negative Press
Very little negative is reported in the International media.
Mbeki joined the whackos with his stance on AIDS but that was drowned with the
successful Mandela initiative to combat and treat AIDS in South Africa and the
rest of the world. Zuma is regarded as “odd” with very little coverage of his
foibles. The recent mine unrest received some coverage but that died down.
Only El Jazeera recently ran a story entitled, “Sorry Madiba
corruption killed your ANC”.
On the international scene South Africa is still basking in
its post apartheid image and it appears that it will take a bloody revolution to alter that
perception.
SOUTH AFRICAN PERCEPTIONS - POST APARTHEID:
There are not too many constituencies, within the
country, that are very happy with the status quo. Other than the ruling
Party and their "hangers on" there is disillusionment,
frustration and anger. Sadly, much criticism is coming from the old guard
of ANC leaders who sacrificed so much for the new nonracial state. On the other
end of the spectrum there are the whites that fear that South Africa will
become another African basket case.
* Corruption
Corruption seems to head the list of growing criticisms against the ruling ANC. The anger is largely directed at Zuma who has received
large sums of money from various sources. Zuma has always been under a cloud
ever since criminal charges of racketeering were dropped in 1999. He received
payments from Schabir Shaik totaling over 4 million rand over 4 years. Shaik
and his family received several governmental lucrative deals. The Judge in
Shaik’s trial made it quite clear that he felt Zuma had a strong case to
answer. In 1998 Mandela disciplined Zuma over his behavior and personally gave
Zuma funds to settle his debts.
The allegations against Zuma are legion and have continued
over the years. The most recent one relates to vast sums of money that are
being used to build his Presidential campus.
However, it goes deeper than that there is a perception that
the political elite is putting their hands in the cookie jar. For example in the Travelgate scandal 40 parliamentarians were found to have used public funds
for their private travel. Even minor officials are being accused of taking
bribes and the perception that bribery is rife. In 2011 Zuma had to fire 2 ministers for bribery.
Zuma, finally, had to sanction a commission into the
corruption, the results of which all are awaiting. Former ANC Deputy President Molanthe, who unsuccessfully ran
against Zuma, at the recent ANC Congress and hence for the Presidency has appealed for
a stop of the culture of corruption in Government,
* Black Economic Empowerment Program.
This program was introduced in order to get more Africans in
the Civil Service and in Private Business. The program has had critics from all
sides of the racial divide. It was supposed to be a type of affirmative action
program but there does not seem much built into it that is designed to provided
extra training or skills to those who have been previously disadvantaged. The
criticism is that these appointments are often political favors and those
obtaining them have not the skills to carry out the job at hand. Or worse, in
the case of businesses, nobody wants them to do anything as they are seen as”
tokens”.
Some argue that is why ESKOM for example is in such a mess.
The other result of this policy is that skilled whites are
replaced, demoted or “need not apply”. Then these often leave for oversea or just foment resentment.
Inevitably this program has been extended to Universities
and other arenas of activity
* Open Borders Policy
While this dates back to the moment the post apartheid
government came into power the effect and burdens on the State are very much
being felt. With the high unemployment rate this continues to cause resentment
and is a festering sore particularly in the black labor market.
* Entitlement Society
Some believe that too much of an entitlement society is being
produced in order to meet the expectations of the black electorate while others
believe that the ANC other than create a significant black middle class have
not made a meaningful attempt to educate and create the jobs for a population
of 50,000,000.
* Freedom of the Press and Freedom of Movement.
A law to prevent the “publication of Government secrets” has
just been passed amidst massive protest reminiscent of the anti apartheid
demonstrations. The legislation, which still must undergo further steps to
become law, would make it a crime, punishable by lengthy prison terms, to
disseminate anything that any state agency regards as classified. Critics have
called the legislation a throwback to the apartheid regime’s harsh repression
and say it is meant to protect corrupt officials from press scrutiny.
The Protection of Information Bill, as the legislation is
called, must still clear a national council of provinces before it takes
effect. Activists have said they will challenge it in South Africa’s constitutional
court. Ironically, the latter was wisely set up by the Mandela regime to
prevent the repressive legislation of the apartheid regime from ever occurring
again.
The Zuma regime has not been too hot on human rights either.
Their refusal to allow the Dalai Lama, a visa, for example, had Nobel Laureate
Archbishop Tutu exclaim that he could not believe that he would ever have to
pray for the downfall of the ANC.
* Crime.
There is one subject that evokes much emotion. The argument
by the Government is that the crime rate has in effect come down since 1995.
They argue that the whites were not much concerned by the murders in the
townships that are now have decreased. The opposition focus on the murders in
the white areas. They also point out that under the apartheid regime homes in
the white areas were fortresses and this is nothing new. This issue seems to
have lost some of its bite since the trouble free World Cup.
WHERE DOES SOUTH AFRICA STAND IN THE WORLD?
South Africa has not yet nearly reached “basket case” status but it
is on its way. At the moment it is only as bad as Brazil by international
standards. Brazil, in case anyone has forgotten, is only just emerging out of
banana republic status.
The Transparency
International Corruption Perception Index (CPI) released recently shows that
South Africa has not turned the tide on corruption in the public sector. South
Africa now ranks 69th out of 187 countries included in the index. The index
measures "perceived levels of public sector corruption" and considers
factors such as bribery, abuse of public resources, secretive decision-making,
anti-corruption laws and conflicts of interest. Over the last 12 years there
has been a consistent downward trend in South Africa's position on the index.
South Africa has dropped 31 places in the index between 2001 and 2012.
THE FUTURE
In many ways South Africa stands at the crossroads of what it will represent in the family of nations. The new Republic had a remarkable genesis
and was rightly hailed as an example for the whole world. The question is
whether South Africa is going to allow a gang of venal thugs to ruin what
generations literally fought and died for. Too much sacrifice was made, too
much suffering occurred, and too much deprivation was endured to allow a
few fat cats to besmirch their inheritance by naked greed.
The culprits should know that they would not find it easy to
triumph as most of them were part of an opposition and resistance that stopped
a far more powerful entrenched regime than theirs. The Press that helped them
is still intact and will live to fight another day. The social media will, as
it has elsewhere, be an added weapon against totalitarianism and corruption.
There are also constitutional provisions that never existed previously, to aid
those who wish to uphold the rule of law.
FORCES FOR CHANGE.
Notwithstanding the apparent show of unity at the ANC
Conference there is discontent among the electorate.
There is an active opposition that will begin to attract ANC
members if this behavior continues. The Democratic Alliance, (DA), is far more
influential than the one lonely Progressive Member of Parliament was in the
apartheid era. (And remember how much Helen Suzman achieved). Also the DA
already is the Government of a whole Province. At present the DA is mainly a
Party of whites, those of mixed race and other minorities such as Asians and
Indians but there is no reason why it could not attract disillusioned ANC
voters.
Or maybe Cyril Ramaphosa, the newly elected Deputy Leader,
can turn the ANC around. He was
after all Mandela’s choice as his successor. He was one of the original
architects of the new constitution that enshrined human rights. He resigned
from politics in the 90’s, having lost out to Mbeki as Mandela’s successor. In
the interim he became a highly successful businessman amassing nearly 700
million dollars. He has a high profile as one of the original fighters against
apartheid and is relatively young at the age of 60. The fact that he has not
been involved in active politics for 16 years and received approximately three
quarters of delegate votes at the ANC Congress speaks volumes to his popularity
and status and a desire to change the image of the ANC.
There is a thousand pound gorilla at the ANC conference in
the form of Julius Malema. The latter is a radical populist who was recently
expelled from the ANC for blatant racism and attacking ANC policy. Malema has
among his policies the nationalization of the mines. How much support he really
has is unknown. For the moment he
is very much been marginalized. Even more so now that the ANC has at the
December 2012 Conference officially taken nationalization of the table.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
One thing is for certain and that is Mandela cannot live
forever. Nor can his afterglow. It is up to a new generation to carry the torch
of freedom and not turn his and everyone’s struggle into an obscene mockery.
There is cause for optimism but the further down the regime goes down the
slippery slope to totalitarianism the harder it becomes to reverse it.
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