IN THE BEGINNING
In the beginning it looked like a rerun of what has happened
so many times before. Hamas fires rockets into Israel and Israel responds with
the full might of the most powerful military force in the Middle East. There is
then death and destruction. The media would then be full of grief stricken
Palestinian mothers and dying children. Israel would be accused of killing
civilians. There would be rationalizations as to why Hamas had done what it
did. An uneasy cease -fire would be brokered. The Arab support for Hamas, other
than Iran, would be muted, the Western response, other than America, would be
that Israel brought this on their own head and each side would lick it’s wounds
claiming victory. Till the next time.
THE “NEXT TIME”
What differed the “next time” is that there had been an Arab
spring. Mubarak who was openly anti Hamas had been replaced by Mohammed Morsy,
the first democratically elected President of Egypt. The latter was openly
supportive of Hamas. An empowered Obama with a different vision on foreign
policy was President of America. Iran was defying the world on the production
of a nuclear bomb. Israel was on the verge of an election with a government that
is as right wing as it has ever been. Mahmoud Abbas of the Fatah movement was
center stage in the Palestinian struggle about to ask for recognition of
Palestine at the United Nations……
THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE.
The 8-day battle between Hamas and Israel brought forth a
response from the world’s powers. There is a new alignment of power blocks.
Arising out of the Arab Spring the 22 Arab Union backed Hamas. Their response
was far more rapid and decisive than it has been in the 9 month Syrian
travesty. Egypt, too, assumed their new role as pro Hamas and Turkey made no
bones as to whose side they were on.
On the other hand, there were no if, buts, or maybes from
the Western alliances that had already labeled Hamas a terrorist organization.
With America in the forefront the unambiguous consensus was that Israel had
every right to defend itself with no qualifiers such as “this is a reflection
of the impossible situation Hamas finds itself”. The incident was seen in it’s
own context.
The real elephant in the room, Iran, who had provided the
rocket artillery for the attack, just sat back and watched as attention was
focused away from their nuclear program and a united Arab world supported their
surrogate. So Iran had “found” itself in a situation where Israel once again
was the pariah of the Islamic world and their surrogate was carrying the
banner.
HAMAS’S PLUSSES
Hamas has firmly established itself as a viable entity in
the Middle East. Like it or not they have to be reckoned with. They also
mounted a more credible attack then ever before. Their rockets were powerful
and notwithstanding the pounding that Gaza took they were firing rockets up to
the last minute. Also they gained a crucial concession in that there would be a
lifting of the embargo.
They must have met the needs that made them start this war
at this point in time. Jay H. Ell believes that the Iranian pressure, support
and production of arms was a key reason for the timing of the Hamas offensive.
However, Peter Beinart a recognized authority on Zionism has written in Cheat
Sheet that there were probably more internal reasons for Hamas’s decision.
These include reducing the influence of Abbas the Head of Fattah and the
Western Bank section of the now divided Palestine. The latter is due to go to
UNO to attempt to obtain Statehood recognition for Palestine – or presumably at
least the part that he controls.
ISRAEL’ S
PLUSSES
It was crystal clear that Hamas started this fight. The
Hamas claim that Israel deliberately targeted civilians proved to be hollow.
The Israelis, if anything, demonstrated
how incredibly accurate they were with their rocket attacks. They
dropped leaflets warning citizens to get out of the way. The Israeli technology
and intelligence was almost uncanny. So much so that Hamas had as one of its
conditions for a cease – fire was that Israel stop targeting it’s leaders with
rockets!
Also it was clear is that the Israeli Iron Dome was highly
effective at eliminating the rockets that really mattered. The undisputed fact was that the Hamas
rockets were unashamedly targeted at civilian populations. Whereas the best
Hamas could do was to allege that Israel was targeting citizens. This even in
the teeth of Israel issuing explanatory communiqués as to what they had
targeted on each occasion.
Israel went against what must have been their short term
interests by not going ahead with their ground invasion. President Simon Peres as a spokesman
came across exceedingly well as a reasoned caring individual that was striving
for peace.
One fact is for sure Hamas cannot easily start firing rockets
again without what is considered clear-cut aggression from Israel. It is all
getting too old.
Israel’s immediate gain is the shutting of the tunnels that
brought in the Iranian rockets and the cessation of hostilities.
MEDIA COVERAGE
The coverage was far more balanced in that Israeli suffering
and fear was portrayed as well as that of the Palestinians. CNN, who provided
wall-to-wall coverage of the war, had reporters in Ashkelon as well as Gaza
City. Al Jazeera, too, was reported to have shown balanced coverage. If anything the accent was on the
futility of war and that the real victims were the citizens. The desire to
maintain balance was reflected by Anderson Cooper’s outburst at a tweeter who
maintained that he was accenting Palestinian sorrow disproportionately.
OBAMA.
Obama, Hillary Clinton and America played a central role in
the whole drama. Obama got Morsy to realize that he and Egypt are going nowhere
if they do not act as honest brokers. A little mentioned fact is that America
sometime ago had stopped aid to Egypt. Also Egypt needs the Western world.
Obama has come to terms that American foreign policy can no longer rely on
dictators that the US backs and America has to win the confidence of the newly
democratic leaders wherever they may be.
Also Obama made it clear that he was unequivocally behind
Israel. If his behavior did not put paid to the bloggersphere hysteria that he
was some type of Muslim plant, nothing will. It also became evident that Obama
funded the Iron Dome, which was so effective in cutting down mortality in big
cities. In addition this was just the beginning of this technology that would
not have surfaced if it were not for Obama.
This places Obama in a more powerful position to make
whatever Israeli Government is in power recognize that they have to negotiate a
fair distribution of land in a two State solution. Obama’s stocks must have
risen amongst the Israeli electorate and smearing him as anti Israeli is not
going to be as effective as it was in the past.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The biggest losers, of course, were the families of the dead
on both sides. The destruction of
property and the cost to rebuild will exacerbate the anger on both sides. Also
Israel by not taking the initiative in the creation of a two state solution has
weakened their major bargaining partner Abbas of the West Bank. Abbas has been
sidelined as he patiently waited and used peaceful methods to battle on.
Israel sooner rather than later has to come to terms that
the onus is on them to resolve the Palestinian “problem”. In some ways Hamas
did them a favor by being the aggressor with their indiscriminate attacking of
civilians. This gave Israel some credibility as to the fact that there are two
sides to this issue. Otherwise the behavior of the people of the bible is
inexplicable – do no harm to strangers, as remember you were strangers in
Egypt.
Netanyahu, or whoever, has to be aware that if they don’t
get onsides on a “just and equitable” solution to the creation of a Palestinian
State, they are going to be on the wrong side of history. Doing whatever needs
to be done to hang on to the West Bank and Gaza, “as they are really part of
Israel” will not fly much longer.
At this stage the fat lady has not even put on her make up
let alone started singing. Morsy is already compromised and no – one really
understands what the cease – fire means. Palestine is in two halves and a negotiated settlement has a long long way to go.
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