IRAN BEHIND ISRAELI CONFLICT?

The topics of Israel, Palestine, (with its Gaza and West Bank components), Israeli internal politics and the newly emerging Anti Semitism worldwide are fraught with passion and fire. The Middle East with its Arab Spring turning into an autumn nightmare has added to the confusion and crossed lines everywhere. The ambivalences that the complex situation create in secular Jews, religious Jews, “liberal” Jews, “non Jewish” Jews, Israeli Jews, the divided Israeli electorate and the varying opinions of Diaspora Jews is mind-boggling.  The Muslim world is also fragmented between religious sects; the jihadists, the orthodox and the growing more westernized groups to name just a few of the divisions.

Jay H Ell hopes to focus on all these issues in the coming months but for the moment he would like to focus, as objectively as possible, on the current conflicts in the Middle East. (The only reason he is mentioning these other issues is that he has had repeated requests to address them and several believe that every issue in the Middle East should be seen in terms of these – even the current situation).

CURRENT MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS AND TENSION.

*IRAN

Underlying all that is going on the Middle East at the moment is the Iranian threat of a nuclear bomb. From Israel’s world this is central to its existence as the daily litany from Iran is that they aim to eliminate Israel. This objective is fundamental to Iran’s foreign policy thrust to become the leader of the Muslim world.

At present the only argument is what the immediate response to the Iranian threat should be. (BLOG: ISRAEL’S NETANYAHU, IRAN’S AHMADINEJAD AND AMERICA’S OBAMA)

It is fair to say that Iran’s intransigent stance on this whole issue has not improved its position in the Islamic world or in the world period. Iran, on the face of it seems to be going full steam ahead with their objective. This in fact would be the only way they could gain prominence as a player in the world especially the Muslim world.

*SYRIA.

There has been civil war since March 2012. The ongoing uprising is directed at Assad’s Ba’ath party. In terms of the Arab Spring paradigm this uprising is in tune with the general rebellion against totalitarian governments. The battle seems a stalemate with forty thousand dead. While the world is not exactly mobilizing against Syria, sentiment is decidedly against it. Syria has lost the one credible ally it had Turkey.

However there is another aspect to Syria’s place in the International world. It is Iran’s chief and really only ally in Islam. Assad’s ouster would weaken and isolate Iran even further. So Iran is on the wrong side of history in yet another global confrontation and has to feel more desperate as it’s quest for dominance recedes.

THE HAMAS POSITION

After a prolonged period of relative stability between Israel and Gaza tensions and incidents suddenly have erupted between Hamas and Israel.

Hamas is an undisputed agent of Iran and has the same stated objective to annihilate the Israeli state. Hamas has advantages that Iran has not in its fight against Israel. They were democratically elected. They represent a constituency that is considered displaced and dispossessed, which have the sympathy of groups of Jews and others throughout the world. Rightly or wrongly Israeli treatment of the Palestinians has lead to condemnation including academic boycotts and has been the rationale for anti-Semitic attacks on synagogues and Jewish institutions throughout the world.

Also the argument, that the timing of the Hamas confrontation coincides with an election with a deeply divided Israeli electorate where Netanyahu needs a war to ensure victory, is persuasive. So Israel could be blamed for the new fighting. This would support a propaganda war with the Israeli Goliath slaughtering the David civilian Palestinians. This might just help the faltering Iranian attempt at the Islam leadership position.  They and they alone are leading the charge against the Zionist imperialists

This looked at from another point of view has Hamas, the Iranian surrogate, drawn into an all out war that they cannot win. There will be Palestinian civilian deaths as at the best of times in war this occurs. The Israelis will be “proved” to be genocidal and fascist. In fact there will be more deaths than usual as Palestinian military targets are invariably placed either in or near civilian institutions.

This can serve two purposes: Consolidating Iranian leadership in the lifelong struggle against Israel and more important removing attention away from Iranian bomb threat

However Netanyahu is not easily going to fall into the trap of a ground war unless he is absolutely forced too. He has learned from his last outburst on the Iranian issue of the propaganda value of playing it cool.

TIME LINE.

This might give us an objective point of view as to who precipitated this escalation propelling it into an inevitable war.

OCTOBER 23: Israeli Defense Force, (IDF), soldier wounded by an explosive device. Palestinians claim responsibility.

NOVEMBER 6: There is an explosion near the Gaza border, injuring 3 IDF soldiers, a Kasssam rocket is fired into Southern Israel and a tunnel is detonated near the Palestinian border overturning 3 IDF vehicles.

NOVEMBER 8:Palestinians fire more shells into Israel In an ensuing firefight with the IDF a 13-year-old Palestinian boy is killed.

NOVEMBER 9. Palestinians fire rockets into Southern Israel. Prior to that they fire on an IDF tank wounding 4 soldiers. In the ensuing battle 5 Palestinians are dead and 25 wounded.

NOVEMBER 10 – 12: up to a 100 rockets are fired into Israel.

NOVEMBER 13:  A cease-fire is announced.

NOVEMEBR 14: Four more rockets are fired into Southern Israel and the Israelis then assassinate Ahmed Jabari, the leader of Hamas’s armed wing and a regional armed wing Hamas leader. They also hit 20 long-range missile sites in Gaza.

NOVEMBER 15 – 17. Israelis hit ever-increasing number of military targets in Gaza. Rockets are fired into Israeli major cities including Jerusalem. Israel mobilizes it’s ground troops. Citizens from both sides are terrified. Israelis are frightened throughout the country because of the indiscriminate rocket firing and Palestinians from the inevitable collateral damage that occurs when military targets are in civilian territory.

NOVEMBER 14 – 17. Syrian rockets are fired into Israel with an Israeli response. President Peres says that Israel is looking at this as an anomaly rather than a war from the Iranian backed Syrians. But to some there is more behind the Iranian backed Syria’s move coming as it does with the conflict in the South.

UPSHOT OF IT ALL

The world response is mooted. The only rage has come from Egypt’s new Muslim Brotherhood leader. He recalled his Ambassador from Israel. The world is watching and waiting. Iran has taken yet another gamble, as it’s own economy withers over sanctions. One outcome is for certain Netanyahu, if he has to commit Israel to ground troops, every nest of arms and military opposition will be eliminated in a country that still has at it’s foreign policy centerpiece the annihilation of Israel and refuses to move into any two state solution discussion. The longer this goes the tougher Netanyahu will have to get and notwithstanding the Republican rhetoric he will be on the phone every day with Obama.

The Palestinian hope to address Israeli wrongs takes a dive when they make moves like this. Furthermore Iran will not commit itself to this fight with troops. It will rally on from the side with weapons, as its surrogates die futile deaths. The Iranian hope is the propaganda war that follows with the inevitable news covering of Palestinian tragedy and despair. Even better they will highlight the inevitable atrocities that sporadically occur in a conflict of this nature.

Legitimate Palestinian grievances will once again take a back seat and the two party state solutions will be even further delayed.

However, for the moment central philosophical issues have had very little to do with the current escalation of violence. The latter points more to yet another cynical move by the Iranian regime that has as much credibility in it’s own country as its other surrogate, Syria. More ominously this could be a smokescreen for Iran to continue on its nuclear program.