ROMNEY'S CHANCES - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Prior to the second debate, Jay H. Ell had already written Romney off as toast, notwithstanding the fact that the media had maintained that Obama was in "deep trouble" as a result of one sub par debate performance. The media now had a horse race so the political parties and PACS doubled up on media advertising, which is very very costly at this stage of the campaign. So it is fair to say that there is a media self interest to keep this as a horse race.




"MAKE OR BREAK FOR OBAMA"




The second debate was make or break for Obama or so they said. All this when it was all but impossible for Romney to win. The Huffington Post electoral map had Obama with a winning 271 electoral votes, either definite or strongly leaning to Obama, even after his "calamitous" debate performance. This number of electoral delegates excluded the "toss up" states, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Put another way even if Romney won all the latter he would still lose.

The newly more conservative CNN had a lead story on their website, "Can Obama stop a Romney win?" However their electoral map similarly rated Romney chanceless. They gave Obama 237 electoral votes adding Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio as "toss up" states. This was very charitable indeed as those 34 electoral votes are sown up by Obama but CNN's assessment certainly adds to the interest and certainly just might just increase their advertising revenue.

Ohio has been hyped to kingdom come.  Ohio that has been in Obama's column for months. His ground game is eons ahead of Romneys with more than double the field offices. The Republican State's legislature last ditch attempt to limit Democratic voting failed court challenges. So Romney would have to be the first Republican to win the Presidency without Ohio.

So as Shakespeare might have said if he had had a tweet account, this is all"Much Ado About Nothing". So like everything else around here elections have become a spectator sport. 

"MODERATE MITT" AND THE FIRST DEBATE




It was totally forgotten that it was a new "etch a sketch" Romney that "won" the first debate. As Bill Clinton said that "Moderate Mitt" had not been around for a long time. Romney abandoned his Tea Party positions and went back to his moderate Massachusetts positions.  The only question Clinton could not answer was why Obama let Romney go unchallenged in that first debate. Neither could Jay H Ell understand the Obama tactics. (Blog: Obama AND Romney No Show at the Debate).


Romney had abandoned his position that "it was fair" that he paid less tax than middle class citizens that earned $50,000 and all in all he was unrecognizable as the Romney that had won the Republican nomination. He could not explain how the math worked for his tax plan. The time had come for all good conservatives to rally round the party!




POLLS AND POLLS




Opinion polls that showed Obama ahead on every conceivable parameter such as likeability and to fix the economy for example, inexplicably found Romney to be equal or even ahead in the popular vote, following the debate. Now opinion polls in the USA can unashamedly have bias. There are Republican pollsters and Democratic pollsters. There are samples that contain more voters of one party or another. There are questions that are more likely to get a partisan response than another. So you have to be selective as to which polls you take notice of.  




BIDEN VERSUS RYAN




Biden massacred Ryan. It was not only a victory for Biden but it was an answer to the "malarkey" of Romney on taxes and the like.  Biden laid the ground for Obama to come back on all the issues that he ostensibly "gave" to Romney in the first debate. Biden was authoritative, knowledgeable and fiesty firing up the base allowing Obama to gain the ascendency in the media battle. The CBS network poll made Biden a winner by 20 points and the other immediate "scientific" poll, CNN's gave it to Ryan by 4 points!




THE SECOND TOWN HALL DEBATE




So the stage was set for a"new" Obama or a return of the "old" Obama or whatever. Obama was aggressive, positive and not giving an inch. From taxes to immigration to women's rights to job creation to foreign policy, Obama took Romney to the cleaners. 

Romney was backtracking on everything from birth control availability to everything else.




Romney was not really happy with the way the debate went. We saw a side of him that was hidden in the first debate. He was testy, irritable and in your face. He is not to used to not getting things his own way apparently. 

There is no doubt that there will be criticism of the moderator Candy Crowley who had the audacity to fact check Romney on what Obama said immediately after the Libyan Embassy Attack.  This attack is Romney's big foreign policy issue. He forgets that he got it all wrong in the beginning, Biden pointed out to Ryan that it was his budget cuts that decreased the security money to the embassies in the first place and that Hillary Clinton took full responsibility for the whole incident the day before.




The immediate CBS and even the CNN poll gave Obama a clear victory. This with the fact that Obama was winning anyway should allow us to move on and look on to the other congressional races and the future of America generally. However, this did not stop the CNN poll from interpreting some aspects of the debate in favor of Romney even though CNN conceded that their responders were far more Republican than usual. (Maybe between this disconnect and the massive Biden - Ryan disconnect CNN should check the methodology of the "scientific" pollsters).




So the media will continue to stoke this up as a horse race. Obama has got his mojo back and there is one more debate. But remember regardless of the hype Romney has to win all those states to win. His performance in the second debate did not improve his chances. Things can only get worse for him. On the newsfront is the fact that a company called Sensata in Freeport Illinois is a company that Bain is moving to China with a loss of a 170 jobs. 

BAIN AND JOB CREATION IN USA

The employees of the Sensata Company are more than aware of their political clout in their life or death issue. They initially appealed to Romney to help them and this was ignored. Now they are going viral. By the end of the week they are going to be the centerpiece of MSNBC'S  Ed Schultz show. 

The whole issue of Bain is indicative of the business model that Romney represents that is only interested in profit and is outsourcing a viable company to China and losing a 170 American jobs. And Romney, who still owns 51% of Bain, is arguing that his business experience can save America by creating jobs.

One just wonders how all this will play in Ohio and how the media will keep the pot boiling for yet another 3 weeks.