Romney AND Obama NO SHOWS AT DEBATE?

The first Presidential debate, watched by 70 million viewers has been hailed as a game changer. The general consensus has been that a dynamic "new" Romney aced the contest. There is also  even more consensus that the President put on a lack luster performance, not taking any advantage of Romney's changing positions and major gaffes on the campaign trail. 




DEBATE.




Now Obama was poor, really poor, both in substance and style. He was just too bad to be true. His substance was a repetition of his well-known positions. He did not challenge Romney on his flip-flopping, gaffes or on his indefensible positions that he has articulated, in a campaign that Republican commentator, Peggy Noonan, had characterized as, "A Galloping Catastrophe".  Obama's style was amateurish. He also appeared to miss the opportunities Romney was giving him with his radically changed positions then and there. He looked down throughout at his podium making notes. There was very little eye contact with anyone. 

This was an Obama that no one could remember, not even from the day before. This was the Obama who had out debated and out organized the Clintons. He had out debated the credible and respected Mc Cain and here this non credible candidate, who had been nominated so reluctantly by the Republicans, had made him seem like an inexperienced hack. It was inexplicable.




Romney was animated, used his hands to make a point and was self assured and confident. The style was a vast improvement on the past. There was no aggression towards the moderator, no covert impatience with his opponent, rather there were personal anecdotes from on the trail and frequent references to his family. The substance was exiting. He had moved to the middle. He was no longer for a 5 trillion tax cut as he said again and again. He proudly owned his Romneycare. He claimed credit for educational achievements in Massachusetts. He was not going to make the rich pay less. Medicare was what he cared about. He now cared about everyone and everything.

This was the "new" Romney.  As predicted by his Campaign Manager, they would "etch a sketch" of a new Romney after the Primaries.




THE POST DEBATE SPIN ROOM. 




The Republican pressroom was a cock a hoop. They had just won the Super Bowl, The Ryder Cup and The World Soccer Championship all in one. Governor Chris Christie's prediction that the world would be a different place after Romney's debate performance had come true. The faithful were bubbling at the immediate responses, twitters, facebook entries, instant polls, focus groups and pundits that, in one way or another, were all declaring Romney the hands down winner.




The Democratic pressroom was subdued. Their terse cryptic response was that one had to see the campaign as a strategy with long term objectives. A response that was, mistakenly, glossed over by all as pretty weak spin. The Democratic following stared despairingly in a state of shock at what appeared to be an aberration. Obama had been at best, "cautious". 

A day later historian Simon Schama said Obama had thrown it all away.




The media, generally, were pleased as now they had a horse race- against all odds Romney had not only survived but also triumphed.




AFTERMATH




Obama, the very next morning, back to his traditional stumping form, said "I debated a man last night who said he was Mitt Romney". "He couldn't have been Romney as Romney has had totally different positions for the past 18 months". The style had suddenly returned and he appeared to relish his pitch that had now gained more material. 




He also made fun of a Romney gaffe where Romney had said he would do a way with Public Television that screens Sesame Street, claiming that, "Romney wanted to deregulate Wall Street but regulate Sesame Street".

Attack ads were simultaneously out, suspiciously soon, slamming Romney on yet more flip flopping at the previous night's debate and his denial of obvious truths, particularly his 5 trillion tax cut.




Romney, of course, was doing victory laps. He had to, however,  get out his scripted answer on a crucial question that Obama, "inexplicably", hadn't asked him the night before thereby depriving him of an audience of 70 million viewers. To the isolated Fox News faithful he admitted that had been totally wrong in writing off 47% of the electorate as moochers and beyond redemption. He had made a mistake and was for a 100% of the Americans. (This was yet another change to his explanation of that meeting with his donors in May 2012.  On September 19, 2012 he merely said that he inelegantly stated his position).

FACT CHECKERS




Bad news was to come for Romney as his claims in his "game changing" performance were analyzed. Besides being charitably defined as the "new Romney" he was being called an outright liar. His talk was being fact checked and lie after lie was being exposed. One Democratic radio commentator claimed that there were 47 lies in 38 minutes! Obama did not come out unscathed but only one of his assumptions was seriously challenged. It was also alleged by the influential Democratic leaning Daily Beast that Romney had cheated by bringing notes into the debate room.

JOBS REPORT

Then came the positive job report that not only showed that in September, businesses had added a 114, 000 new jobs but also job figures from the previous 2 months had been adjusted higher. This brought down the unemployment rate to below 8%. This meant that nearly a million more people had jobs compared with a month previously. Below eight percent unemployment was the figure that Obama had promised he would reach by the end of his first term. The cynics maintained that Obama had to have known about the jobs report, as preliminary figures are available prior to the Friday announcement, and this had led to his complacency the night before. 

Romney damned the job news with faint praise and argued that the decrease in the unemployment percentage was as a result of disheartened job seekers pulling themselves out of the job market. The latter statement, at least, was a half-truth.

Jack Welch, that doyen of capitalism, who saved General Electric by firing thousands and thousands of workers only to receive tens and tens of millions in salary and retirement pay off for his troubles, in frustration, maintained that Obama had "manipulated" the job report because his debate performance was awful. How the jobs figure is derived is transparent and non-partisan and Welch's wild claim has been dismissed by all and sundry.

Worse to come, for the Republican "sinkers of the ship", is that consumer confidence has risen so that there will be more spending and therefore more job creation. Also the holiday season is upon us and there are will be a seasonal jump in employment.

EXPLANATION AND CONSEQUENCES




Romney, in what Jay H. Ell considers another Romney Hail Mary, has really just added to what he has to defend in the weeks to come. Romney has reinforced his well-earned reputation of being a total opportunist trying to be all things to all people. He also, by moving back again to the middle of the political spectrum, must have his right wing supporters pulling their hair out. As his new and surely his now final position emerges, he must loose some of the conservative base who never have been entirely covinced anyway.  His disconnect with Ryan becomes even more pronounced. He has made Ryan's position untenable as he faces a merciless Joe Biden in the Vice Presidential debate next week. And in the Town Hall format of the next Presidential Debate the way is open for the voters to hammer Romney on his inconsistencies.




Obama's tactics had allowed Romney free reign to reframe himself.  The undecided voter cannot be swayed by a candidate who appears even more undecided than him or her, Obama must have reckoned. 

So Jay H Ell believes the real Obama consciusly did not show up either. It was not only the real Romney who was a no - show. In so doing Obama took an unnecessary risk. It is surely better to get your message out to 70,000,000 viewers and not rely on Romney screwing up as he did. (A fact that will only be fully appreciated if the "Galloping Catastrophe" rolls on). Also who knows if the debate audiences will remain at the same viewership. Also how many were hearing Obama and Romney for the first time in this election cycle and  MAY well have believed that both the real Romney and Obama did, in fact, show up! Obama, by his performance deflated his own supporters and rejuvenated Romney's. All this entirely unnessarily as the outcome of the election is all but certain.

Whatever the pundits may say Jay H Ell believes this debate will have little, if any, impact on the race. The Republican Party has the most to loose if Romney gets defeated, as he surely will. They then cannot delay any further to not face up to the facts of the new emerging American population demographic, that women will no longer tolerate men making decisions about their bodies or health or anything else and that the reality is that their form of capitalism has gone off the rails.