The total dissaray of the Republican Party and consequently their inability to find a really credible candidate has helped but ultimately it has to be the Obama persona that has triumphed against all odds.
OBAMA'S HANDICAPS
* The economy
This was the deepest recession since World War 11 and Obama, amidst critiscism, used stimulus after stimulus to get it going. He told detractors if his stimuluses don't work, don't re-elect me. He has now to live with the reality that the economy is still in the doldrums. Even with the new job figures he faces an uphill task against the businessman Romney. There are still tens of millions out of work.
* Lack of Congress Co-operation and it's Sequalae
Unskilled as a Washington politican and with the Republican Congress hell bent on obstruction - rather killing the Captain than saving the ship - he got very little done after 2012. As he pathetically tried to court the Republicans like a love struck suitor, he was rejected time and again. The Republican Congress was reminiscent of the Russians at UNO in the Cold War period and "nyet" was the response to every bipartisan initiative.
All this added to his woes as he was made to look impotent. More significantly it angered his base who believed he was "selling out" and ignoring his promised agenda in favor of "bipartisanship". Even Michael Moore mocked his efforts and was reluctant to support him "fully" for this campaign. His "Yes We Can" constituency was frankly disillusioned at the fact that that Obama's activism could not be translated into political reality. (Blog From Yes We Can to Yes We Cave).
Not only was he not connecting with Republicans his modus operandi did not allow him to fraternize with his own Democrats on a day to day basis. It was just not his style to be smoozing with the movers and shakers.
So all in all he appeared to be in a big mess.
* Obamacare and Medicare Scare
Obama's monumental legislative centerpiece success, Obamacare, ironically, was ill understood and like any change created fear among the electorate. This uncertainty was exploited by the Republicans to the full and was largely responsible for the Republican 2012 electoral gains. "Obamarecare would threaten Medicare, as it existed", was the Republican winning mantra. While this is losing traction, as the benefits of Obamacare are slowly manifested, Obama still hasn't regained the support of senior citizens fully.
* The Republican Principle Objective for 2014 - Deny Obama a Second Term
There was only one objective that united the disparate groups that are under the aegis of the Republican banner. The objective, as unashamedly ennunciated by the Senate Republican leader Mitch McConell, was to deny Obama a second term. This objective was manifested in many ways. Some mounted their opposition on Obama's policies per se, but most, to a lesser or greater extent, attacked Obama as being a "Non American". ( See Blog OSAMA OBAMA - REALLY AN AMERICAN?).
This really appeared to be a winning strategy. Obama, who objectively is a poster child for what America is really all about, was framed as an outsider, a socialist, a European, an Asian, an African, a Muslim and someone who was not born in America and therefore a type of Manchurian candidate who has been programed to sell America to Muslims/Europeans/Asians/Africans/Socialists or whoever down the river. This was a serious effort and not a peripheral issue or a joke. There is still to this day Republican luminaries, like Donald Trump, that argue that Obama's American citizenship is still an issue. The blogosphere is awash with "facts" that Obama is a closet Muslim, with Arabic on his ring, about to sell out Israel any moment and working full out to create America into a Muslim state.
If you are African American and going against the trend of the Country Club Republicans, it's moneyed PAC's and it's intelligentsia this is a big big smear. The money factor was considered so big that Adrianna Huffington, of the Huffington Post and Michael Moore thought that this alone would defeat him. He was also up against the powerful Fox/Wall Street media machine and it's surrogates such as Rush Limbaugh who day in and day out are bashing him as a sell out and an anti - Ameican - "Only the stupid, the dumb and anti - American could vote for Obama".
So Obama, with a crippled American economy on his back, had, in addition, to defend his credentials as a bona fide American.
Thus the Republicans had Obama by the "short and curlies". The economy was down the tubes, he had not reversed the mess as promised and because he was out there to sabotage America as a secret agent of whoever. No need to explain how "we" would get you out of this mess, rather, "Trust me I am an American, (Republican), we will sort it out. Just let us get rid of this interloper"
So how has Obama countered this all?
OBAMA'S PLUSES.
* Intellect and grasp of issues.
Notwithstanding all the Limbaugh smears ,that without affirmative action Obama would have got nowhere, he has a giant intellect. He has absorbed all the viewpoints on all the issues and has clearly defined objectives in all arenas. This includes the economy, health, education, foreign policy and defence and the military to name but a few.
* Political, organizational skills and oratory.
For all his style and philosophy he is not without political skills. The very fact that, as a junior first term Senator, he navigated the murky underworld of politics, especially in Chicago, to emerge as a viable Presidential candidate in the first place, speaks volumes. He is tough as nails and a competitor in this arena. His oratory, not necessarily his debating skills, is up there with the best of them and it was his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention that meteorically propelled him into the national limelight. He did not rely on personal skills alone and it was hard hard work on the ground. It was innovative exploitation of the internet as a political medium and grassroots support, that is still the hallmark of his campaigning to this day, that was the basis of his success.
* I am who I am in the world that I live in.
To a large extent Obama has argued that he is doing what he promised. He has not deviated from his principles and in the cirumstances he believes he has done the best he could. Obama's behavior as an American has been impecable - his support of the troops, his foreign policies and his success in killing Bin Laden and the neutralization of Al Quaeda have been his priorities. The latter has dampened down, to a certain extent, the questioning of his bona fides.
All this on it's own would not be enough to get him reelected.
* Reframed the question.
He has successfully reframed the question to, "How would you like to see America respond to the crisis?". Rather than defend what he has done and why it has "failed", he has posed, "What is the direction you would like America to take?". The two alternatives, he would claim, is favor the rich in the belief that they would create jobs or build the economy by supporting the middle class or make the rich pay there fair share in taxes and lessen the tax burden on the middle class so that they can build the economy upwards.
Romney has helped him in framing this as the narrative. ( See blog - The Unraveling of a Romney).
So Obama would argue that we are not dealing with a question of a failure of a policy per se. We are rather dealing with choices of how to respond to a crises.
* Bill Clinton's Role.
Bill Clinton together with Hillary have the highest political approval ratings in the country by far. Clinton after all is the President associated with the greatest prosperity in memory and for turning an economy around.
It is instructive to observe Obama's approach to Bill Clinton. Al Gore literally rather lost the election rather than have Bill Clinton's support. Gore was his own man. Kerry almost forgot that Clinton existed. Both wanted, it appeared, to be their own persona and ignored the massive positivity Bill Clinton generated. Obama seems to have no problem with the Clinton charisma. Obama is not out to prove some personal point he is out to win a second term. Obama has had Clinton answering questions at his, Obama's own Press Conference, campaigning and generally taking plenty of the limelight.
Cinton's position has included the following statements and actions:
- “But the president’s economic plan is better in the short run, better in the long run. And the vision that we’re all in this together is a heck of a lot better than you are on your own."
- Clinton has told friends he will do as much to support as his schedule allows to support the president’s re-election.
- In addition to New Hampshire and his lauded speech at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, he has stumped on Obama’s behalf in Florida.
- In the run-up to the November 6 vote, Clinton is expected to attend other grassroots and fund-raising events, but Obama campaign aides did not give specifics. Some close to the former president think his economic message is especially helpful for Obama in such battlegrounds as Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire.
- * Cabinet Selection.
Obama inspanned some of his opponents in the Presidential election thereby healing the wounds of a blistering Primary. Biden became Vice President and Hillary Clinton Secretary of State. He was looking for top talent and not out to settle old scores. By so doing he risked opposition within the inner manouverings of internal politics but did not seem to care. His policy has paid off.
* Small ego.
Ego in Presidential candidates has to be measured differently from the rest of the world. There is no doubt that really no-one, who did not at least have a massive amount of self confidence, would aspire to this position. Notwithstanding that, from every point of view Obama's behavior in his new world makes one believe that he has a value system that contradicts being a megalomaniac. He would just rather be one of the guys.
There have been several biographies some positive others negative on Obama. However, there has been nothing more instructive than Michael Lewis's piece in Vanity Fair and his subsequent interviews on the subject. Lewis tailed him in all his presidential activities for 6 months watching and questioning. From Lewis we learn that Obama takes responsibility for his decisions but seeks opinions from the highest to the lowest member of his administration. The very fact that Obama was undefended enough to allow anyone to tail him and question him for six months puts him in another category.
He has kept all his previous friends and they are with him in his down time. He values most contacts with those where there is not anything to gain but a true exchange of ideas or friendship.
FAMILY MAN
He has, at the expense of smoozing congress, maintained family time. This is not a fake or a photo op but for real. So much is his "strong marriage" an issue that some insiders have maintained that this contributes to his "dysfunctional" Presidency.
He hankers for the life he had before he was President. He told Lewis that he needed to renew his Illinois driving license. He was blissfully unaware, as Lewis pointed out, that even as an ex- President, with their heavy secret service detail, he was extremely unlikely to be driving his own car again.
Jay H. Ell saw a program on Chicago Public Televsion entitled "Check Please". This program features "ordinary people" and their choices of restaurant. Obama had featured in the program when he was a little known State Senator. That particular program had been thought to be so mundane that it was not aired. It was only featured when Obama had become President and it was instructive to learn what Obama's favorite restaurant was. It was a local eatery on the South Side of Chicago where he went regularly with the whole family. No pretensions and with a homely environment.
* Introvert.
He has no desire to be there with the movers and shakers of America and the world. The recent UNO opening is a case in point. Every American President, including Bush 43, had meetings with world leaders when they come to NY for this event. He scheduled none. He does not have ongoing receptions with leading industrialists, scientists, businessmen or even Congressmen. It is just not his chop.
His Nobel Prize embarrassed him. He does not need this type of recognition.
* Empathy and "Likeability" with the electorate.
Obama thus has successfully shown that he is "one of them" and one can see why. In addition, according to Biden he reads 10 letters every night that have been written to the White House. He identifies with the man/woman in the street and all this has been registered by the parameter "likeability"
LIKEABILITY.
Obama, is way ahead in the likeability parameter. Implicit in this likeabilty index is trust. As illustrated above this recognition is not in a vaccuum. The majority of the electorate believe he is for real and they trust him. So even if the majority feel that the economy is going in the wrong direction they still favor Obama to rectify it!
In addition to all of the personal attributes above, he has supported the underdog in Society more than his opponents. This includes women, the uninsured, the Latinos, the Veterans, the Seniors, the gays..... This he has done consistently and by deed as much as by word.
THE ENIGMA
At the end of the day there are a multitude of factors that have allowed Obama to be on the cusp of a second term as President.
The biggest enigma of all in Jay H Ell's mind is why this personality profile wants to be the President in the first place. There are those that argue that he does not want to be President anymore and this explains his first poor debate performance. (See Michael Tomasky's review on these nay sayers and Jay H Ell's blog, "Romney AND Obama No Shows at Debate) .
Jay H. Ell has to believe he was originally persuaded, by influential party members, the Chicago Democratic Illinois establishment and moneyed supporters of the Democratic philosophy to run. There is no way that this political neophyte, with his personality, could just have had the blind chutzpah to go ahead on his own.
The Hillary Clinton's and the John McCain's are far more suited for the job specifications needed to effect legislation. Obama's very strengths among the electorate are his weaknesses in Washington. You have to be full time, all the time, manouvering, bargaining, offering, trading, smoozing... to be successful in effecting legislative change. Obama seems to the exception to the rule thus far.
However, his greatest challenge, if his likely second term materializes, will be to effect compromise on spending and taxation and produce legislation to right this country's economy. No - one has any doubt as to his social or international agenda. The latter is to focus on Al Quaeda, act militarily only with international consensus and to support Israel in denying Iran nuclear weaponry.
The central issue is still domestic and economic and he better learn fast to get into the hurly burly of Washington politics.
Jay H Ell is not into predictions per se but after Tuesday night's debate, he believes, there will be much more certainty of an Obama victory.
If you look at Nate Silver's numbers on 538, Obama has been falling like a stone over the last ten days. If he comes off second best again in the Tuesday night debate and if the job figures in November, a few days before voting, are going in the wrong direction, I think he will be toast. I certainly hope not but I feel that's the reality.
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