WHY ISN'T ROMNEY A SHOE IN?

By the key parameters that impact on voters,  Romney should be having no difficulty in winning this election. Unemployment is at an all time high, the job market is spluttering, individual debt is increasing with the housing market still in the doldrums, student college debt is at it's highest ever, the national deficit is at a record sixteen trillion dollars, high inflation looms and there is really no hope in sight. In opinion polls voters rate the two most important factors in this election are - you guessed right - Jobs and the Economy.




On the face of it Obama has failed to right the ship. When challenged about his approach, early on his Presidency, Keynesian priming of the pump, he stated that if it doesn't work, "Vote Me Out". Well why aren't the voters clearly indicating their willingness to do so?


 

Voters are obviously taking into account other parameters in selecting their President at this point in time. These include party policy on welfare, health care, minorities and women's rights. These issues cannot be ignored and hopefully when the debates get into full swing they will assume a bigger significance than they are assuming now.




Also voter demographics, big money and changing voting qualifications play a role in how people vote or do not vote.

However, for the moment it is jobs and the economy.




ROMNEY IS YOUR MAN




Romney, potentially, is a far better manager of the economy then Obama, as his experience and success at Bain seems to indicate. He is also a far better organizer, as his organization of the Utah Olympics would indicate. These are the qualities needed to get us out of this mess.


In a CBS poll conducted on 8/26/12 in answer to the Question, "Which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment"; Romney scored 52% and Obama 38%. 




To the question, "As to who does not have a clear plan to create jobs", Romney scored 45% and Obama 58%.


Now I never was much good in algebra but if A = job creation and B= lack of economy plan and C = electoral success then if we put the numbers to Romney and Obama then Romney wins hands down! (A- B =C). Romney thus scores plus 7 to Obama's minus 20!

So why are Ladbrokes, the Premier betting company in the world, rating Obama an odds on favorite to win the Presidential election? 




LIKEABILITY FACTOR.




Everyone talks about the "likeability factor". Why this should be relevant in the Presidential Election no one is quite sure but it is obviously considered important. Romney is way behind on this parameter. 




"Likeability” apparently is Romney's problem. The recent GOP Congress worked hard on this issue. (See blog ANN ROMNEY ON WOMEN, MITT AND CODE). In addition to Ann, there were Mormon Pastors, employees where Bain created success and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, including Clint Eastwood and Romney himself, all trying to change the Romney likeability image. 




WHAT IS "LIKEABILITY"?




Nobody really can define this. Ann has said "If you knew Mitt like I knew Mitt...” But for whatever reason even at this stage there are not enough takers.




We might get some idea of the disparity between Romney and Obama from the same 8/26/12 CBS poll that rated Romney far better at solving their key problems of jobs and economy. To the question, "Do you think that Barrack Obama/ Mitt Romney understands the needs and problems of people like yourself? Obama scored 54% and Romney 41%.


So the same Romney, who is best qualified in the same opinion poll to be better equipped to handle the crucial issues of jobs and economy, "Does not understand the needs and problems of the people".




So "likeability" probably relates to empathy. The latter is defined as the ability to put yourself in somebody else’s shoes - to be able to understand the world as someone else perceives it. So to put this all this into context, while Romney may have the credentials to solve the problem, intuitively the electorate believe he doesn't understand their situation as they do!




Also implicit in empathy is trust. Anyone can say, "We care about you", but if their behavior belies their words then they cannot connect with the "you". 


PERCEPTIONS BACKING ROMNEY'S LACK OF EMPATHY AND CONNECTIVITY.




What could be the reason for Romney's acknowledged lack of "likeability" i.e. empathy? There is an obvious credibility gap between all his positions on health care and social issues for example as a Senate candidate and Massachusetts Governor and his positions on the selfsame issues now. While the GOP establishment have accepted that Romney's new positions are valid it is obvious that this has not sat well with a certain part of the electorate. 




Also Obama has debunked Romney's Bain CEO experience where Romney’s objective was to make profit for a few regardless of the outcome to employees. This objective is opposed to the objective of the Presidency that is to see to the wellbeing of all regardless of "profit". Put another way it may be hard for a laid off worker to connect with the CEO who has just got a fat bonus for trimming the company at his expense.




CRITIQUE OF ROMNEY AT BAIN




Matt Taibbi has just come out with a devastating critique of Romney in the lead story of the influential Rolling Stones Magazine. He entitled it "Greed and Debt - The True Story of Romney at Bain Capitol". 

Taibbi lists questionable business practices that could only have benefited Romney and his investors. These include loading companies up with debt and then charging massive fees to tell them whom to fire to pay back the debt. Romney would also run up great debts in companies and then do the equivalent of "torching" them out of existence and collect fat fees for his trouble. There are a multitude of similar allegations. These would go to the argument that a CEO of a Company such as Bain is not a qualification for Presidency who has the interest of all Americans.




There are also personal allegations against Romney in that he shirked military service and that he ran the most expensive Olympic Games ever with massive US Government subsidies. 

These allegations are unlikely to go unanswered. 




ROMNEY'S EMPATHY AT BAIN




However there are two Taibbi allegations that relate to personal behavior and that talk to the "likeability" empathy question.


Taibbi maintains that, "Romney has always kept his distance from the real-life consequences of his profiteering. At one point during Bain's looting of Ampad, a worker named Randy Johnson sent a handwritten letter to Romney, asking him to intervene to save an Ampad factory in Marion, Indiana. In a sterling demonstration of manliness and willingness to face a difficult conversation, Romney, who had just lost his race for the Senate in Massachusetts, wrote Johnson that he was 'sorry,' but his lawyers had advised him not to get involved."




In another example Taibbi, allegedly, illustrating Romney's interpersonal relationships at Bain, writes:




"Over the years, colleagues would anonymously whisper stories about Mitt the Boss to the press, describing him as cunning, manipulative and a little bit nuts, with 'an ability to identify people's insecurities and exploit them for his own benefit.' One former Bain employee said that Romney would screw around with bonuses in small amounts, just to mess with people: He would give $3 million to one, $3.1 million to another and $2.9 million to a third, just to keep those below him on edge."




This article certainly focuses on "likeability” and regardless of the anticipated counter arguments it adds to Romney's woes.




While "likeability" is only one of the factors that go to elect a President is obviously important, Romney can take heart that Richard Nixon was elected twice without it!




One fact is for certain we will all be hearing much of this at next week’s Democratic National Conference.