THE UNRAVELING OF A ROMNEY

Romney's Presidential canditure is unraveling. The evidence is there for all to see. There is a drop in his poll numbers in nearly every parameter.  The national polls, the swing state polls, polls on key demographics and key issues are all trending substantially against him. Even on the issue, "Who do you favor to manage the economy better", the latter being Romney's strong suit, he is now in a statistical dead heat with Obama.

ROMNEY CAMP DESPONDENCY




The behavior of Romney and all those around him also support the fact that his challenge has gone off the rails. Romney is attending far fewer campaign events than Obama, Ann Romney went sour on the media when she maintained that all those criticizing Romney should get into the ring themselves. 

There is reported internal fighting among his campaign staff. The latter are leaking like sieves to the media with their woes. Donors are calling for some of them to be fired. His long time chief campaign spokesman, Tim Pawlenty, has resigned and become a lobbyist. Also not helpful to the Romney image is the fact that he gave one of his staff a $200,000 bonus. 




There have been allegations of "papering" audiences. The co-hosts of Uni Vision the Spanish television service stated that Romney would not be interviewed unless audiences were bussed in from his support group. He had a "tantrum" because he considered the introduction to his appearance on Uni Vision was not good enough and refused to make an entrance till it was revised. Also coalminers in Ohio were similarly bussed to a meeting there to be used as props at a rally. The fact that this is being done cannot exactly create a cheery atmosphere at campaign headquarters.




REPUBLICAN ANTIPATHY




Added to all this is the criticism of Romney by respected Republican pundits such as Peggy Noonan, who called his campaign, "A Rolling Catastrophe", George Will and Alex Castellanos. The donors are mumbling particularly at his low public profile and his repeated announced "renewals" of his campaign. Also where are the Establishment Republican heavy hitters who should be out supporting him? No Republican governors and no establishment figures are in sight. One of his Primary opponents, Herman Cain, even said he would be doing far better than Romney. 




In fact rather than support Romney, Republican Senate candidates in tight races are publically distancing themselves from him The Republican Congress leaders are strangely silent on his canditure. House of Representatives Speaker Boehner and Senate leader Mitchell are not only not cheerleading they are in damage control.




LATE NIGHT TV




While the lampooning of all Presidential candidates is traditional this season has unmercifully hammered Romney. He is being spooked on his changing positions and his clangors are red meat for the satirists. As one late night host said he prays for Romney's election. All the network and Channel TV late show hosts, Saturday Night Live and Comedy Central's Stewart and Colbert are having a field day in a an unprecedented fashion. Romney lost his cool with Letterman arguing that, "David Letterman hates him". David Letterman of CBS reassured him that he didn't and invited him around anytime at the shortest notice.


All this doesn't help but at the very least Romney should laugh it all off.




RYAN BOOMERANG 




Jay H. Ell blogged in early August, on the announcement of Ryan as the Vice President nominee, that this was a desperation move by Romney, akin to the appointment of Sarah Palin by McCain. In fact it was indicative that Romney was unraveling. Ryan started off with a rousing speech at the Republican Congress that was full of "inexactitudes" providing further fodder for attack. Then he was MIA for weeks only to emerge at the American Conference for Retirees. To put it politely he was a disaster, his speech being booed throughout. This happening from the only demographic that Romney still is ahead on - the Senior Citizens. 




Romney has refused to answer questions on Ryan's Medicare policy and said that it was not his policy. The media are running speeches Ryan made in 2010 where he said the Cayman Islands is where you hide money and on and on. 




WHAT HAS PUSHED ROMNEY OVER THE EDGE?




* The Taped Private Fundraiser Event




The more the Republican policies become clarified the more the Republican Presidential ticket goes down the tubes.  Let us take the two most recent revelations. The release of the videotapes of a meeting that Romney had with donors, who paid $50,000 a plate to attend, had devastating consequences. However, all Romney did was clarify the current Republican belief system and strategy. So much so was he on target that the far right Republican media leaders, including Rush Limbaugh, shouted hooray! 




However, to everyone else the message that he conveyed released a firestorm. He maintained that everyone who received anything from the government, whether it be Health Benefits, Unemployment or Retirement Benefits or poverty support were moochers who paid no income tax and were unsalvageable for the Republican cause as they were dependent on Government handouts. This was where Obama got his 47% support from, Romney maintained. Romney had no hope of convincing these layabouts to take responsibility for themselves. 




* Romney's tax returns




Then, next, Romney released his 2011 tax returns that showed with his collosal income he paid only14% in taxes. To keep it at that level he did not claim all his deductions. (These he could claim within three years so no-one is convinced at his newly found largesse). Compare this action to his earlier statement on his taxes where he maintained that, "No-One would want a President who paid more taxes than he had too". 

The release helped him nought and refocussed questions on the issue such as, "What about his other 10 years tax returns that he refuses to release?” They are those who speculate that he paid no taxes and others even allege that he is guilty of tax fraud. However, for practical purposes this focusses attention on the Republican theme that the tax burden on the rich should be lessened even more as they are the "job creators". There is nothing in Romney's returns to show that he is creating jobs. So this poster child for Republican tax policy is not helping the cause. To put the cherry on the top he told CBS on 60 Minutes that it was "fair" that he pays less tax than someone who earns $50,000.




Connect these two latest revelations and we see the disconnect that Romney has with the voters. These two episodes are a metaphor for the Republican economic policies - the rich need more tax breaks and less money should be available for the 47% "freeloaders" who include pensioners, disabled and army veterans. 




As Republican National Chairman, Priebus, reflected, "Romney did not have a good week".




ROMNEY THE VICTIM?


In fairness to Romney he is running on what the Republican Party policy is at the moment. Whether or not he believes in or not he adopted it to get the nomination in the first place and now he is following through. 




In August of 2011, Jay H. Ell blogged that no Republican Presidential candidate would have any saleable policy to run on. The Tea Party agenda had taken over. How could a Republican candidate defend the economic agenda as outlined in the Ryan budget? 

Romney survived challenges from several usurpers to the nomination, (See blogs including, "Anyone but Romney"). The other candidates, including Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum mainly espoused the Tea Party philosophy. Each and everyone them led the polls at one stage or another with Romney getting only about 25% of the vote in each stand off, but were eliminated one by one. This occurred as the Republican voters realized that they were too ridiculous, too underfunded, too ignorant or too chanceless to be nominated. So reluctantly the Republican Primary voters had to live with retreaded Conservative Romney and have been blaming him ever since.




HOW ROMNEY TICKS


Romney has got what he deserved. He wanted the Presidential nomination and he got it. He was prepared to say anything and do anything to get it. Nobody really knew what he believed and after 7 years of campaigning there were still endless articles and books on the "Real Romney". Interestingly, these latest two incidents, with his Bain experience, give us an insight to how he functions.




Romney is a highly capable bureaucrat that does whatever it takes to be successful for the job at hand. He does what the job definition requires. He can isolate whatever beliefs, he may or may not have, from the defined task. If his job definition is as a CEO, he will in order to make a profit, outsource American jobs, lay off workers, close factories and pay fat undeserved bonuses. If it is to be the Governor of liberal Massachusetts he will be pro gay, introduce health care for all it's citizens and be pro choice if that is what is demanded. If he wants to be the Republican standard bearer and the Republican position is the antithesis of all his Massachusetts’s positions, so be it. 

To be a true leader you have to believe in all the people you wish to lead. Romney, in that taped meeting, wrote off 47% of the Americans as unsalvageable moochers. 




This does not mean in private life Romney isn't a decent caring god fearing man but the disconnect with his public persona is too great for the undecided to swallow or allow them to trust him. 


DOUBLE STANDARD




Obama in this election is the one being painted as, "The one who doesn’t belong and who is not American". Can you imagine what would have been said if, for example, Obama had outsourced jobs to China and invested there, had "hid" money in the Cayman Islands to avoid tax, had not said, "I am not interested in the 1% of Americans or the 47% or the 53% I am interested in all the Americans" or not mentioned the armed forces in his acceptance speech. He would have been crucified. Romney is still around in spite of it all of these blunders. One wonders why?




IT AIN'T OVER........




While Jay H. Ell has never rated Romney much of a chance of being elected, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings." The economy is still bad, Romney's PACS are still pouring unlimited money into his campaign, (Bill Clinton estimated that they will outspend Obama threefold), the crucial debates, that have decided elections in the past are still to come, and the concerted efforts to disenfranchise Obama voters have not as yet been countered. But Jay H. Ell believes that the unraveling has reached a stage that it will move forward by it's own momentum. There will be not much that Romney can do right now and the die is cast. 



The Republicans will have learned that just running on an anti - Obama platform, with no specific or acceptable policies to offer, just doesn't cut it.