OBAMA AND ROMNEY AND THE CONVENTIONS

In the short span of two weeks the Presidential battle has been crystallized at party conventions where two systems of government were presented that were as opposite as poles on a magnet. At the best of times these jamborees are well choreographed circuses, where the choir is dutifully preached too and then dutifully respond. There was all that and a bit more. 

These occasions are usually not aimed to persuade too many "undecided" but rather to fire up the base. On the whole, the Obama team were spot on message and Romney's crowd, by contrast, were not as sharp and at times sloppy. 




These differences are reflected in the initial polls that purport to measure impacts of events. Romney's overall support dropped 1% and Obama's job approval rating went from 43% to 52%. This is the highest rating since the assassination of Osama Bin Laden. Other more immediate parameters such as numbers of tweets - the social media measurement- reflected far more involvement with the DNC than the GOP.  For example Michelle Obama received more tweets than Romney. The DNC convention broke a record for receiving 4,000,000 tweets in one day and Obama broke a record for receiving nearly 60,000 tweets after his speech and so it goes.




WHY?




Party platform.




If one looks at the Party Platform, that is supposedly the Party policy for the election, any similarity with the Romney team message and that platform was purely coincidental. However, the Obama team was so on message that the one glitch, the near omission of supporting Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel, stood out like a sore thumb. 




Narrative.




The Romney narrative is essentially to turn this into a referendum on Obama's job as President. The Obama team successfully created an alternative narrative to one of a choice between two starkly contrasting philosophies. Here Bill Clinton was at his brilliant best and it was suggested that Obama create a cabinet position for him as "Secretary of Explaining Things". The question of "Are you better off now then you were 4 years ago" was reframed that if you would have continued with the policies that landed Obama with the mess he faced how much worse you would have been off today? If the highly popular and successful Clinton maintained that no President could hve done any better you better listen!

Then the newly constructed narrative continued and was supported by whatever Obama had done from economic stimuli to rescuing the car industry as pluses. Also the Republicans refusing to even debate Obama's Job Creation Act was hammered again and again and the Dems explanation was that to get rid of the captain the Republicans are prepared to sink the ship. 




The one liner that encapsulated the criticsm of Romney's position on jobs was, "For Romney the cars get the elevator, (a reference to the new home Romney has just built in California), and the workers' get the shaft. 


Foreign Policy.




John Kerry, speaking with a clarity and passion that he lacked for his own campaign, unmercifully pulverized the inexperienced Romney team on foreign policy. He contrasted it with the "successful" Obama record. "Ask Osama Bin Laden if he is better off now then he was 4 years ago", he thundered. He maintained that for Romney an overseas trip was where one tripped up oversea.




Staying on message and connecting the narrative on foreign policy with economics was the one- liner, "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors was alive".




Kumbaya.




The GOP keynote speaker, Chris Christie was not effusive of his Party's Presidential Party candidate. David Axelrod tweeted 20 minutes into Christie's self-serving monologue, that he assumed that Christie was going to mention Romney. The Reverend Al Sharpton mentioned that speakers at the GOP conference mentioned Romney by name 213 times versus the 686 times Obama's name was mentioned at the DNP gathering. Somehow, unconsciously, the Party's fragile coalition and uncertainty of Romney as a candidate was reflected in this statistic. 




Whose Party?




Romney's crowd did not mention the Tea Party, whose platform he was representing. The traditional party establishment was absent. Only one Bush was there - Jed, who said, "He loved his brother and everyone must lay off him". Whatever differences within the DNP there are, for example, on the Obama style and his overtures to the GOP were buried for the Convention. There was reverence for the Party Godfather Clinton but there were no GOP icons -Tea Party or the Old Establishment - in evidence. No Sarah Palin or Dick Armey’s, no Bush’s or Powell's or Cheney’s or other Neocons either. Only one - Condi Rice who made a statesmanlike speech that could have been for anywhere anytime even the DNC conference.




Diversity




As blogged in June, "Romney - The Grand Old Party's Last Hoorah" and "Romney - the GOP's Last White Hope" the Republican lack of support of the population's vastly changing demographics was reflected by the fact that minorities represented between 1% and 2% of the Republican delegates. The Democratic Convention delegates represented the rainbow nature of the citizenry of the country. The GOP have to realize that you cannot have policies that do not support minority rights, immigration reform or create legislation that limits their ability to vote and expect their support because they just might prefer "smaller government" or be more socially conservative.




Now it is fair to say that there is Latino leadership potential on both sides. Republican Senator Marc Rubrio and Mayor Julian Castro, the First Latin American Keynote speaker at a Democratic Convention, both held their Conferences spellbound.




Women's Rights




The parade of women at the DNP convention, including legislators, was overwhelming. From Nancy Pelosi and all the Democratic Women Congressmen to close on half the Speakers being women left little doubt that Obama was paying more than lip service to this important demographic. Then there were speeches on all Obama's positive legislation and policies for women - Planned Parenthood, women's rights, abortion, contraception and equal pay for equal work. All these positions were skillfully articulated by female  protagonists. Nothing happened in the GOP Convention to change the large lead that Obama has in the women demographic. 




For the first time the Democrats did not shy away from debating abortion rights exploiting the GOP Party Platform's policy of no abortion anywhere any time and even banning certain contraception.They then exploited the GOP Presidential ticket's flip flop to support abortion in rape and incest against the Party Plarform.




"Likeability” and empathy factor.




The importance of this parameter was discussed in the last blog, "Why Romney isn’t a shoe, (shoo), in". No - one in the GOP convention never quite got it how crucial this was. Ann Romney gave it an unsuccessful whirl- blog, "Ann Romney on Women, Mitt and codes".

By contrast Michelle Obama took us into the home dynamic and the effect that being President had on Barack, how it had changed him, his expectations and his commitment. In the political arena Joe Biden in a fiery speech did a remarkable job of relating the "agony and the ecstasy" of Obama and that every decision he took or discussed was prefaced by how this would impact the average American. Clinton added his bit too.

Obama and Romney.

Obama did himself no harm and fired up his base. He could not be the Obama of old. He was no longer an activist as he was now"President of the United States" living with the realities of politics. There was a humility that recognized that promises of years gone by were unattainable and not within his control. His  message now was that one needed to go "Forward" and that this was not about him and Romney but rather about a stark contrast in Government.

Romney too what he did he had to do. In fact this was the clearest exposition of what and why he should be President. The delegates were behind him, other than the "Ron Paul moment" they all appeared united that the objective was to get Obama out.

Armed forces and Veteran issues.

Unbelievably the GOP seems to have taken this constituency for -granted and barely mentioned it. The DEMS hit it hard. There was constant reference to the armed forces' sacrifices and even more allusions for the disabled and unemployed veterans. Michelle Obama has made the latter issue a personal crusade. In addition the GOP did not refer to Afghanistan once. All this makes one wonder who was choreographing their circus. 

Obama brought home the troops from Iraq and has a date to bring them home from Afghanistan as the faithful were constantly reminded.

UPSHOT 

Party conventions are not known to have a great impact on election outcomes. They are what they are. It's back to business and by all accounts it is close. Romney still has all that money and the Republican state legislatures, while being challenged, are still enacting legislation or rulings that will limit the minority vote. Also the job and the economy scene are not likely to improve much by November.  But at the end of the day, JAY H ELL believes that, Obama has moved one step closer to ensuring a second term.