Suddenly the world ain't what it used to be - the Arab Spring has turned into an Arab nightmare and Israel and Iran seemed to be heading inexorably on a collision course. There is lots and lots going on but what is really going on?
ON THE FACE OF IT.
* Iran's Ahmadinejad.
Iran's Ahmadinejad has been rachetting up the rhetoric against Israel. As recently as September 12, 2012 the Jerusalem Post reported that he called for "World forces to annihilate Israel". He mouthed the well worn antisemitic smears that, "The Zionists control the world's main powers, media and money".
In addition he maintained, at a an annual anti Israel protest, that the "Tumor of Israel must be destroyed". He continued, "The nations of the region will soon finish off the usurper Zionists in the Palestinian land. A New Middle East will definitely be formed. With the grace of God and help of nations, there will be no trace of the Americans and Zionists."
All this venom is combined with his ongoing holocaust denial rhetoric and a new accusation on September 11, 2012 that "Enemies are destroying Iran's rain clouds". He believes that the "enemies" are doing this in order to create a drought in Iran. The cherry on the top of Ahmadinejad's stepped up rant is his intention to address the United Nations on Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.
* Iranian nuclear capability and international response.
Contemporaneously with this bohaai is the UN atomic agency's report that they have received "New and significant intelligence that Iran has moved further toward the ability to build an atomic warhead". Reportedly they have enriched uranium from 5% to 20%. A level of 90% is needed for a nuclear warhead. This intelligence has reportedly come from 4 nations, including Israel and the USA.
Iran has not cooperated with atomic monitoring bodies. The international response has been to introduce sanctions that have had no impact in changing Iran's behavior. Iran's recent stances and defiance on this issue have resulted in Russia and China finally agreeing to join in on criticizing Iran's nuclear intransigence. Iran is becoming more and more isolated.
Notwithstanding their recent upgrading of uranium and refusal to allow UN inspectors Ahmadinejad, vehemently denies that Iran has nuclear weapon aspirations.
* Israel's Netanyahu.
Netanyahu has made it quite clear that his objective is a preemptive strike on Iran's reported uranium enrichment sites. He has become more and more vocal on the subject. He has plenty of rationale for his argument. Iran's de facto declaration of war on Israel and the fact that Iran could produce nuclear missiles that could reach Israel is argument enough for his position.
Netanyahu has become more and more outspoken on America's refusal to unconditionally back him in this endeavor. He is highly critical of the USA's refusal to draw a red line as to what it would need for a USA led strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the United Nations one day after Ahmadinejad. His real audience will be the American Congress and the American electorate.
So on the face of it Netanyahu has a convincing argument to strike.
AMERICAN OPINION.
Obama's reluctance to engage in outright war with Iran the whole issue is a hot political potato in the current Presidential election. Romney has maintained that Obama has thrown Israel under the bus and should Netanyahu preemptively strike Obama could be placed in a very difficult situation. The interpersonal relationship between Obama and Netanyahu is acknowledged to be "rocky". Obama has been deeply resentful at Netanyahu's attempt to dictate to him what to do and Netanyahu's outmanouvering of him, by going over Obama's head and appealing to the US Congress a year ago. This must have destroyed much trust between the two.
ISRAELI OPINION.
If Obama may have problems with Congress and his electorate on a premptive strike on Iranian nuclear reactors, Netanyahu has bigger ones in Israel. An InterPress news report in late August has as it's headline, "In Israel, opposition to attacking Iran gains upper hand". Besides the opposition in the Knesset, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Force, Bennie Garitz and Tamir Pardo, Head of Mossad, oppose a preemptive strike on Iran. They are joined in their belief by the Israeli Air Force Chief, Amir Eshel, the Military Chief Of Intelligence, Aviv Kochavi and General Securities Director, Yoram Cohen. Elder Statesman Simon Peres has joined in the criticism and added to Netanyahu's isolation.
Opinion polls conducted in Israel have shown that the majority of Israelis do not favor a preemptive strike.
So we have the irony of Netanyahu having more support in the USA for his proposed action and Obama more support in Israel for his non commital position on a preemptive strike!
PERSONAL DYNAMICS
* Ahmadinejad and his clergy
There is little doubt that Ahmadinejad is doing all he can to bait Netanyahu to attack him. Why is he doing this?
He obviously needs to prove himself. He is a nobody in the Muslim world. He lost the election in Iran so really he is a nobody there. He is out of favor with Khomeni. His image and influence has taken a beating in the Syrian debacle. If he is attacked by Israel he will gain prestige as the standard bearer of the fight against Zionism and the liberator of Palestine. He is quite prepared to be a matyr dragging milions along with him.
In spite of his baiting of Israel and his snubbing of the UN Atomic Commission, is Ahmadinejad really planning on nuclear warhead construction? Or is he conveniently combining the issues to bait Israel even further?
In an article in the blog, "The Cutting Edge News", Medhi Khalaji reviews the Khomeini position on Weapons of Mass Destruction and in particular nuclear warheads. The long time official position is that they are against. However, their has been some hedging of late that could be interpreted that stockpiling could be OK. At best there is marked ambivalence by the clergy. It is hard to believe that unless there is a clearcut go ahead, in the form of a Fatwa, that, the out of favor, Ahminejad, unilaterally, would carry on enriching uranium to a nuclear capability.
All this adds up to what the Israeli armed forces and intelligence must believe - Ahmadinejad is manipulating Netanyahu - who incidentally is only to happy to be manipulated.
* Netanyahu
Why Netanyahu has taken his tack is not so clear. Maybe Netanyahu is reading the situation as "life or death" because in the final analysis, he believes that Iran is going to have a nuclear "go" at Israel sooner or later. The issue is why this full blast of militancy at this point in time? The only possible explanation is that he is trying to force Obama's hand just prior to the Presidential election. This would explain his timimg and he is crescendering rhetoric. (Joe Klein has written a scathing piece on this for TIME magazine).
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
Netanyahu is banking on Obama grudgungly supporting him once there is a war. What Obama might do is not quite certain. He may not be keen to drag the USA in a war that he does not believe in at the moment and JAY H. ELL is sure his military brass and intelligence are telling him what the Israeli military brass and intelligence are telling Netanyahu.
Also Obama has shown he is not scared to think out of the box on foreign policy. He recently cut aid to Egypt a decidedly risky venture at this stage. He has not moved unilaterally on any issue including Syria. He is out of Afghanistan and Iran. He seems to have taken a decision to fight assymetry with assymetry - hence the accent on drone attacks. Although he is firmly in the Israeli camp he may well take the risk of giving a Netanyahu military adventure a miss. He will loose some Jewish votes - the Adelsteins of this world - but he never had them in the first place and his failure to draw a "red line" as to when to attack Iran militarily, has already sealed his fate with this group of voters.
One thing for certain is if Netanyahu does unilaterally decide to attack there will be devastating consequences. This will be unlike the non response to the Israeli attack on Iraqi nuclear facilities in the 80's or the Israeli attack on the Syrian facilities that were obviously taken with American support. Iran have threatened a dire warning that they will wipe out Israel. (Iran are doing this on a daily basis anyway the only difference is they will now be doing it ostensibly in self defense!). An Israeli strike will broaden the "Arab nightmare", which is now more or less self contained in each country, to an all out Jihadist onslaught that will drag in all and sundry.
Netanyahu might, in the end, stay his hand if he sees that his brinkmanship is not having the desired effect on Obama. But before deciding he is going to give it a full, elquent and demagogic attempt to persuade the world and especially USA opinion that Iranian intransigence and the fact that Ahmadinejad is a purveyor of terror and citizen murder warrants this type of intervention now. Short of Powelllike satellite photos, as yet unknown to anybody, including his own intelligence, his chances of success must be slight. (Netanyahu's embassy staff are at this moment going from door to door trying to persuade decision makers in Washington of Netanyahu's case according to the NY Times of September 17, 2012).
Israel owes the USA plenty. The worldwide Muslim reaction, on the pretext of a disgusting YouTube movie that mocks the Muslim religion, is exacerbated by an underlying hatred of America. This hatred is in at least part because of America's support of Israel. Netanyahu's attitude to pressure the USA is manipulative and childish to put it mildly. Where is the Statesmenship of the Desert War where Israel wisely held back while being attacked by scud missiles while America was polishing off a common enemy?
At the end of the day Hillary and her counterparts will attempt to get a powerful UN motion against Iran with threats and sanctions. This in the hope that a concerted international effort might finally make Ahmadinejad see reason. The reality is that Ahmadinejad will probably scream on and the threat to the world, that he is creating, will still be there. Perhaps, then, the time will be ripe for a concerted international effort to eliminate this despot.
Hopefully, Israel will have another Prime Minister who will recognize the need for International cooperation and take note of what his or her intelligence and armed forces are advising rather than play dangerous political games, that could add kerosene to the Middle East powder keg.
The bottom line is that the world is being held to ransom by manipulation by both Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu.
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