THE UNRAVELING OF A ROMNEY

Romney's Presidential canditure is unraveling. The evidence is there for all to see. There is a drop in his poll numbers in nearly every parameter.  The national polls, the swing state polls, polls on key demographics and key issues are all trending substantially against him. Even on the issue, "Who do you favor to manage the economy better", the latter being Romney's strong suit, he is now in a statistical dead heat with Obama.

ROMNEY CAMP DESPONDENCY




The behavior of Romney and all those around him also support the fact that his challenge has gone off the rails. Romney is attending far fewer campaign events than Obama, Ann Romney went sour on the media when she maintained that all those criticizing Romney should get into the ring themselves. 

There is reported internal fighting among his campaign staff. The latter are leaking like sieves to the media with their woes. Donors are calling for some of them to be fired. His long time chief campaign spokesman, Tim Pawlenty, has resigned and become a lobbyist. Also not helpful to the Romney image is the fact that he gave one of his staff a $200,000 bonus. 




There have been allegations of "papering" audiences. The co-hosts of Uni Vision the Spanish television service stated that Romney would not be interviewed unless audiences were bussed in from his support group. He had a "tantrum" because he considered the introduction to his appearance on Uni Vision was not good enough and refused to make an entrance till it was revised. Also coalminers in Ohio were similarly bussed to a meeting there to be used as props at a rally. The fact that this is being done cannot exactly create a cheery atmosphere at campaign headquarters.




REPUBLICAN ANTIPATHY




Added to all this is the criticism of Romney by respected Republican pundits such as Peggy Noonan, who called his campaign, "A Rolling Catastrophe", George Will and Alex Castellanos. The donors are mumbling particularly at his low public profile and his repeated announced "renewals" of his campaign. Also where are the Establishment Republican heavy hitters who should be out supporting him? No Republican governors and no establishment figures are in sight. One of his Primary opponents, Herman Cain, even said he would be doing far better than Romney. 




In fact rather than support Romney, Republican Senate candidates in tight races are publically distancing themselves from him The Republican Congress leaders are strangely silent on his canditure. House of Representatives Speaker Boehner and Senate leader Mitchell are not only not cheerleading they are in damage control.




LATE NIGHT TV




While the lampooning of all Presidential candidates is traditional this season has unmercifully hammered Romney. He is being spooked on his changing positions and his clangors are red meat for the satirists. As one late night host said he prays for Romney's election. All the network and Channel TV late show hosts, Saturday Night Live and Comedy Central's Stewart and Colbert are having a field day in a an unprecedented fashion. Romney lost his cool with Letterman arguing that, "David Letterman hates him". David Letterman of CBS reassured him that he didn't and invited him around anytime at the shortest notice.


All this doesn't help but at the very least Romney should laugh it all off.




RYAN BOOMERANG 




Jay H. Ell blogged in early August, on the announcement of Ryan as the Vice President nominee, that this was a desperation move by Romney, akin to the appointment of Sarah Palin by McCain. In fact it was indicative that Romney was unraveling. Ryan started off with a rousing speech at the Republican Congress that was full of "inexactitudes" providing further fodder for attack. Then he was MIA for weeks only to emerge at the American Conference for Retirees. To put it politely he was a disaster, his speech being booed throughout. This happening from the only demographic that Romney still is ahead on - the Senior Citizens. 




Romney has refused to answer questions on Ryan's Medicare policy and said that it was not his policy. The media are running speeches Ryan made in 2010 where he said the Cayman Islands is where you hide money and on and on. 




WHAT HAS PUSHED ROMNEY OVER THE EDGE?




* The Taped Private Fundraiser Event




The more the Republican policies become clarified the more the Republican Presidential ticket goes down the tubes.  Let us take the two most recent revelations. The release of the videotapes of a meeting that Romney had with donors, who paid $50,000 a plate to attend, had devastating consequences. However, all Romney did was clarify the current Republican belief system and strategy. So much so was he on target that the far right Republican media leaders, including Rush Limbaugh, shouted hooray! 




However, to everyone else the message that he conveyed released a firestorm. He maintained that everyone who received anything from the government, whether it be Health Benefits, Unemployment or Retirement Benefits or poverty support were moochers who paid no income tax and were unsalvageable for the Republican cause as they were dependent on Government handouts. This was where Obama got his 47% support from, Romney maintained. Romney had no hope of convincing these layabouts to take responsibility for themselves. 




* Romney's tax returns




Then, next, Romney released his 2011 tax returns that showed with his collosal income he paid only14% in taxes. To keep it at that level he did not claim all his deductions. (These he could claim within three years so no-one is convinced at his newly found largesse). Compare this action to his earlier statement on his taxes where he maintained that, "No-One would want a President who paid more taxes than he had too". 

The release helped him nought and refocussed questions on the issue such as, "What about his other 10 years tax returns that he refuses to release?” They are those who speculate that he paid no taxes and others even allege that he is guilty of tax fraud. However, for practical purposes this focusses attention on the Republican theme that the tax burden on the rich should be lessened even more as they are the "job creators". There is nothing in Romney's returns to show that he is creating jobs. So this poster child for Republican tax policy is not helping the cause. To put the cherry on the top he told CBS on 60 Minutes that it was "fair" that he pays less tax than someone who earns $50,000.




Connect these two latest revelations and we see the disconnect that Romney has with the voters. These two episodes are a metaphor for the Republican economic policies - the rich need more tax breaks and less money should be available for the 47% "freeloaders" who include pensioners, disabled and army veterans. 




As Republican National Chairman, Priebus, reflected, "Romney did not have a good week".




ROMNEY THE VICTIM?


In fairness to Romney he is running on what the Republican Party policy is at the moment. Whether or not he believes in or not he adopted it to get the nomination in the first place and now he is following through. 




In August of 2011, Jay H. Ell blogged that no Republican Presidential candidate would have any saleable policy to run on. The Tea Party agenda had taken over. How could a Republican candidate defend the economic agenda as outlined in the Ryan budget? 

Romney survived challenges from several usurpers to the nomination, (See blogs including, "Anyone but Romney"). The other candidates, including Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum mainly espoused the Tea Party philosophy. Each and everyone them led the polls at one stage or another with Romney getting only about 25% of the vote in each stand off, but were eliminated one by one. This occurred as the Republican voters realized that they were too ridiculous, too underfunded, too ignorant or too chanceless to be nominated. So reluctantly the Republican Primary voters had to live with retreaded Conservative Romney and have been blaming him ever since.




HOW ROMNEY TICKS


Romney has got what he deserved. He wanted the Presidential nomination and he got it. He was prepared to say anything and do anything to get it. Nobody really knew what he believed and after 7 years of campaigning there were still endless articles and books on the "Real Romney". Interestingly, these latest two incidents, with his Bain experience, give us an insight to how he functions.




Romney is a highly capable bureaucrat that does whatever it takes to be successful for the job at hand. He does what the job definition requires. He can isolate whatever beliefs, he may or may not have, from the defined task. If his job definition is as a CEO, he will in order to make a profit, outsource American jobs, lay off workers, close factories and pay fat undeserved bonuses. If it is to be the Governor of liberal Massachusetts he will be pro gay, introduce health care for all it's citizens and be pro choice if that is what is demanded. If he wants to be the Republican standard bearer and the Republican position is the antithesis of all his Massachusetts’s positions, so be it. 

To be a true leader you have to believe in all the people you wish to lead. Romney, in that taped meeting, wrote off 47% of the Americans as unsalvageable moochers. 




This does not mean in private life Romney isn't a decent caring god fearing man but the disconnect with his public persona is too great for the undecided to swallow or allow them to trust him. 


DOUBLE STANDARD




Obama in this election is the one being painted as, "The one who doesn’t belong and who is not American". Can you imagine what would have been said if, for example, Obama had outsourced jobs to China and invested there, had "hid" money in the Cayman Islands to avoid tax, had not said, "I am not interested in the 1% of Americans or the 47% or the 53% I am interested in all the Americans" or not mentioned the armed forces in his acceptance speech. He would have been crucified. Romney is still around in spite of it all of these blunders. One wonders why?




IT AIN'T OVER........




While Jay H. Ell has never rated Romney much of a chance of being elected, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings." The economy is still bad, Romney's PACS are still pouring unlimited money into his campaign, (Bill Clinton estimated that they will outspend Obama threefold), the crucial debates, that have decided elections in the past are still to come, and the concerted efforts to disenfranchise Obama voters have not as yet been countered. But Jay H. Ell believes that the unraveling has reached a stage that it will move forward by it's own momentum. There will be not much that Romney can do right now and the die is cast. 



The Republicans will have learned that just running on an anti - Obama platform, with no specific or acceptable policies to offer, just doesn't cut it. 

ISRAEL'S NETANYAHU, IRAN'S AHMADINEJAD AND AMERICA'S OBAMA

Suddenly the world ain't what it used to be - the Arab Spring has turned into an Arab nightmare and Israel and Iran seemed to be heading inexorably on a collision course. There is lots and lots going on but what is really going on?

ON THE FACE OF IT.

* Iran's Ahmadinejad.

 Iran's Ahmadinejad has been rachetting up the rhetoric against Israel. As recently as September 12, 2012 the Jerusalem Post reported that he called for "World forces to annihilate Israel". He mouthed the well worn antisemitic smears that, "The Zionists control the world's main powers, media and money".

In addition he maintained, at a an annual anti Israel protest, that the "Tumor of Israel must be destroyed". He continued, "The nations of the region will soon finish off the usurper Zionists in the Palestinian land. A New Middle East will definitely be formed. With the grace of God and help of nations, there will be no trace of the Americans and Zionists."  

All this venom is combined with his ongoing holocaust denial rhetoric and a new accusation on September 11, 2012 that "Enemies are destroying Iran's rain clouds". He believes that the "enemies"  are doing this in order to create a drought in Iran. The cherry on the top of Ahmadinejad's stepped up rant is his intention to address the United Nations on Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.

* Iranian nuclear capability and international response.

Contemporaneously with this bohaai is the UN atomic agency's report that they have received "New and significant intelligence that Iran has moved further toward the ability to build an atomic warhead".  Reportedly they have enriched uranium from 5% to 20%. A level of 90% is needed for a nuclear warhead. This intelligence has reportedly come from 4 nations, including Israel and the USA.  

Iran has not cooperated with atomic monitoring bodies. The international response has been to introduce sanctions that have had no impact in changing Iran's behavior. Iran's recent stances and defiance on this issue have resulted in Russia and China finally agreeing to join in on criticizing Iran's nuclear intransigence. Iran is becoming more and more isolated. 

Notwithstanding their recent upgrading of uranium and refusal to allow UN inspectors Ahmadinejad, vehemently denies that Iran has  nuclear weapon aspirations. 

* Israel's Netanyahu.

Netanyahu has made it quite clear that his objective is a preemptive strike on Iran's reported uranium enrichment sites. He has become more and more vocal on the subject. He has plenty of rationale for his argument. Iran's de facto declaration of war on Israel and the fact that Iran could produce nuclear missiles that could reach Israel is argument enough for his position. 

 Netanyahu has become more and more outspoken on America's refusal to unconditionally back him in this endeavor. He is highly critical of the USA's refusal to draw a red line as to what it would need for a USA led strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the United Nations one day after Ahmadinejad. His real audience will be the American Congress and the American electorate.

So on the face of it Netanyahu has a convincing argument to strike.

AMERICAN OPINION.

 Obama's reluctance to engage in outright war with Iran the whole issue is a hot political potato in the current Presidential election. Romney has maintained that Obama has thrown Israel under the bus and should Netanyahu preemptively strike Obama could be placed in a very difficult situation. The interpersonal relationship between Obama and Netanyahu is acknowledged to be "rocky". Obama has been deeply resentful at Netanyahu's attempt to dictate to him what to do and Netanyahu's outmanouvering of him, by going over Obama's head and appealing to the US Congress a year ago. This must have destroyed much trust between the two. 

ISRAELI OPINION.

If Obama may have problems with Congress and his electorate on a premptive strike on Iranian nuclear reactors, Netanyahu has bigger ones in Israel. An InterPress news report in late August has as it's headline, "In Israel, opposition to attacking Iran gains upper hand". Besides the opposition in the Knesset, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Force, Bennie Garitz and Tamir Pardo, Head of Mossad, oppose a preemptive strike on Iran. They are joined in their belief by the Israeli Air Force Chief, Amir Eshel, the Military Chief Of Intelligence, Aviv Kochavi and General Securities Director, Yoram Cohen. Elder Statesman Simon Peres has joined in the criticism and added to Netanyahu's isolation.

Opinion polls conducted in Israel have shown that the majority of Israelis do not favor a preemptive strike. 

So we have the irony of Netanyahu having more support in the USA for his proposed action and Obama more support in Israel for his non commital position on a preemptive strike!     

PERSONAL DYNAMICS

* Ahmadinejad and his clergy

There is little doubt that Ahmadinejad is doing all he can to bait Netanyahu to attack him. Why is he doing this? 

He obviously needs to prove himself. He is a nobody in the Muslim world. He lost the election in Iran so really he is a nobody there. He is out of favor with Khomeni. His image and influence has taken a beating in the Syrian debacle. If he is attacked by Israel he will gain prestige as the standard bearer of the fight against Zionism and the liberator of Palestine. He is quite prepared to be a matyr dragging milions along with him.

In spite of his baiting of Israel and his snubbing of the UN Atomic Commission, is Ahmadinejad really planning on nuclear warhead construction? Or is he conveniently combining the issues to bait Israel even further?

In an article in the blog, "The Cutting Edge News", Medhi Khalaji reviews the Khomeini position on Weapons of Mass Destruction and in particular nuclear warheads. The long time official position is that they are against. However, their has been some hedging of late that could be interpreted that stockpiling could be OK. At best there is marked ambivalence by the clergy. It is hard to believe that unless there is a clearcut go ahead, in the form of a Fatwa, that, the out of favor, Ahminejad, unilaterally, would carry on enriching uranium to a nuclear capability.

All this adds up to what the Israeli armed forces and intelligence must believe - Ahmadinejad is manipulating Netanyahu - who incidentally is only to happy to be manipulated.

* Netanyahu

Why Netanyahu has taken his tack is not so clear.  Maybe Netanyahu is reading the situation as "life or death" because in the final analysis, he believes that Iran is going to have a nuclear "go" at Israel sooner or later.  The issue is why this full blast of  militancy at this point in time? The only possible explanation is that he is trying to force Obama's hand just prior to the Presidential election. This would explain his timimg and he is crescendering rhetoric. (Joe Klein has written a scathing piece on this for TIME magazine).

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Netanyahu is banking on Obama grudgungly supporting him once there is a war. What Obama might do is not quite certain. He may not be keen to drag the USA in a war that he does not believe in at the moment and JAY H. ELL is sure his military brass and intelligence are telling him what the Israeli military brass and intelligence are telling Netanyahu. 

Also Obama has shown he is not scared to think out of the box on foreign policy. He recently cut aid to Egypt a decidedly risky venture at this stage. He has not moved unilaterally on any issue including Syria. He is out of Afghanistan and Iran. He seems to have taken a decision to fight assymetry with assymetry - hence the accent on drone attacks. Although he is firmly in the Israeli camp he may well take the risk of giving a Netanyahu military adventure a miss. He will loose some Jewish votes - the Adelsteins of this world - but he never had them in the first place and his failure to draw a "red line" as to when to attack Iran militarily, has already sealed his fate with this group of voters.

One thing for certain is if Netanyahu does unilaterally decide to attack there will be devastating consequences. This will be unlike the non response to the Israeli attack on Iraqi nuclear facilities in the 80's or the Israeli attack on the Syrian facilities that were obviously taken with American support. Iran have threatened a dire warning that they will wipe out Israel. (Iran are doing this on a daily basis anyway the only difference is they will now be doing it ostensibly in self defense!). An Israeli strike will broaden the "Arab nightmare", which is now more or less self contained in each country, to an all out Jihadist onslaught that will drag in all and sundry.

Netanyahu might, in the end, stay his hand if he sees that his brinkmanship is not having the desired effect on Obama. But before deciding he is going to give it a full, elquent and demagogic attempt to persuade the world and especially USA opinion that Iranian intransigence and the fact that Ahmadinejad is a purveyor of terror and citizen murder warrants this type of intervention now. Short of Powelllike satellite photos, as yet unknown to anybody, including his own intelligence, his chances of success must be slight.  (Netanyahu's embassy staff are at this moment going from door to door trying to persuade decision makers in Washington of Netanyahu's case according to the NY Times of September 17, 2012).

Israel owes the USA plenty. The worldwide Muslim reaction, on the pretext of a disgusting YouTube movie that mocks the Muslim religion, is exacerbated by an underlying hatred of America. This hatred is in at least part because of America's support of Israel. Netanyahu's attitude to pressure the USA is manipulative and childish to put it mildly. Where is the Statesmenship of the Desert War where Israel wisely held back while being attacked by scud missiles while America was polishing off a common enemy?

At the end of the day Hillary and her counterparts will attempt to get a powerful UN motion against Iran with threats and sanctions. This in the hope that a concerted international effort might finally make Ahmadinejad see reason.  The reality is that Ahmadinejad will probably scream on and the threat to the world, that he is creating, will still be there. Perhaps, then, the time will be ripe for a concerted international effort to eliminate this despot. 

Hopefully, Israel will have another Prime Minister who will recognize the need for International cooperation and take note of what his or her intelligence and armed forces are advising rather than play dangerous political games, that could add kerosene to the Middle East powder keg.

The bottom line is that the world is being held to ransom by manipulation by both Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu.

OBAMA AND ROMNEY AND THE CONVENTIONS

In the short span of two weeks the Presidential battle has been crystallized at party conventions where two systems of government were presented that were as opposite as poles on a magnet. At the best of times these jamborees are well choreographed circuses, where the choir is dutifully preached too and then dutifully respond. There was all that and a bit more. 

These occasions are usually not aimed to persuade too many "undecided" but rather to fire up the base. On the whole, the Obama team were spot on message and Romney's crowd, by contrast, were not as sharp and at times sloppy. 




These differences are reflected in the initial polls that purport to measure impacts of events. Romney's overall support dropped 1% and Obama's job approval rating went from 43% to 52%. This is the highest rating since the assassination of Osama Bin Laden. Other more immediate parameters such as numbers of tweets - the social media measurement- reflected far more involvement with the DNC than the GOP.  For example Michelle Obama received more tweets than Romney. The DNC convention broke a record for receiving 4,000,000 tweets in one day and Obama broke a record for receiving nearly 60,000 tweets after his speech and so it goes.




WHY?




Party platform.




If one looks at the Party Platform, that is supposedly the Party policy for the election, any similarity with the Romney team message and that platform was purely coincidental. However, the Obama team was so on message that the one glitch, the near omission of supporting Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel, stood out like a sore thumb. 




Narrative.




The Romney narrative is essentially to turn this into a referendum on Obama's job as President. The Obama team successfully created an alternative narrative to one of a choice between two starkly contrasting philosophies. Here Bill Clinton was at his brilliant best and it was suggested that Obama create a cabinet position for him as "Secretary of Explaining Things". The question of "Are you better off now then you were 4 years ago" was reframed that if you would have continued with the policies that landed Obama with the mess he faced how much worse you would have been off today? If the highly popular and successful Clinton maintained that no President could hve done any better you better listen!

Then the newly constructed narrative continued and was supported by whatever Obama had done from economic stimuli to rescuing the car industry as pluses. Also the Republicans refusing to even debate Obama's Job Creation Act was hammered again and again and the Dems explanation was that to get rid of the captain the Republicans are prepared to sink the ship. 




The one liner that encapsulated the criticsm of Romney's position on jobs was, "For Romney the cars get the elevator, (a reference to the new home Romney has just built in California), and the workers' get the shaft. 


Foreign Policy.




John Kerry, speaking with a clarity and passion that he lacked for his own campaign, unmercifully pulverized the inexperienced Romney team on foreign policy. He contrasted it with the "successful" Obama record. "Ask Osama Bin Laden if he is better off now then he was 4 years ago", he thundered. He maintained that for Romney an overseas trip was where one tripped up oversea.




Staying on message and connecting the narrative on foreign policy with economics was the one- liner, "Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors was alive".




Kumbaya.




The GOP keynote speaker, Chris Christie was not effusive of his Party's Presidential Party candidate. David Axelrod tweeted 20 minutes into Christie's self-serving monologue, that he assumed that Christie was going to mention Romney. The Reverend Al Sharpton mentioned that speakers at the GOP conference mentioned Romney by name 213 times versus the 686 times Obama's name was mentioned at the DNP gathering. Somehow, unconsciously, the Party's fragile coalition and uncertainty of Romney as a candidate was reflected in this statistic. 




Whose Party?




Romney's crowd did not mention the Tea Party, whose platform he was representing. The traditional party establishment was absent. Only one Bush was there - Jed, who said, "He loved his brother and everyone must lay off him". Whatever differences within the DNP there are, for example, on the Obama style and his overtures to the GOP were buried for the Convention. There was reverence for the Party Godfather Clinton but there were no GOP icons -Tea Party or the Old Establishment - in evidence. No Sarah Palin or Dick Armey’s, no Bush’s or Powell's or Cheney’s or other Neocons either. Only one - Condi Rice who made a statesmanlike speech that could have been for anywhere anytime even the DNC conference.




Diversity




As blogged in June, "Romney - The Grand Old Party's Last Hoorah" and "Romney - the GOP's Last White Hope" the Republican lack of support of the population's vastly changing demographics was reflected by the fact that minorities represented between 1% and 2% of the Republican delegates. The Democratic Convention delegates represented the rainbow nature of the citizenry of the country. The GOP have to realize that you cannot have policies that do not support minority rights, immigration reform or create legislation that limits their ability to vote and expect their support because they just might prefer "smaller government" or be more socially conservative.




Now it is fair to say that there is Latino leadership potential on both sides. Republican Senator Marc Rubrio and Mayor Julian Castro, the First Latin American Keynote speaker at a Democratic Convention, both held their Conferences spellbound.




Women's Rights




The parade of women at the DNP convention, including legislators, was overwhelming. From Nancy Pelosi and all the Democratic Women Congressmen to close on half the Speakers being women left little doubt that Obama was paying more than lip service to this important demographic. Then there were speeches on all Obama's positive legislation and policies for women - Planned Parenthood, women's rights, abortion, contraception and equal pay for equal work. All these positions were skillfully articulated by female  protagonists. Nothing happened in the GOP Convention to change the large lead that Obama has in the women demographic. 




For the first time the Democrats did not shy away from debating abortion rights exploiting the GOP Party Platform's policy of no abortion anywhere any time and even banning certain contraception.They then exploited the GOP Presidential ticket's flip flop to support abortion in rape and incest against the Party Plarform.




"Likeability” and empathy factor.




The importance of this parameter was discussed in the last blog, "Why Romney isn’t a shoe, (shoo), in". No - one in the GOP convention never quite got it how crucial this was. Ann Romney gave it an unsuccessful whirl- blog, "Ann Romney on Women, Mitt and codes".

By contrast Michelle Obama took us into the home dynamic and the effect that being President had on Barack, how it had changed him, his expectations and his commitment. In the political arena Joe Biden in a fiery speech did a remarkable job of relating the "agony and the ecstasy" of Obama and that every decision he took or discussed was prefaced by how this would impact the average American. Clinton added his bit too.

Obama and Romney.

Obama did himself no harm and fired up his base. He could not be the Obama of old. He was no longer an activist as he was now"President of the United States" living with the realities of politics. There was a humility that recognized that promises of years gone by were unattainable and not within his control. His  message now was that one needed to go "Forward" and that this was not about him and Romney but rather about a stark contrast in Government.

Romney too what he did he had to do. In fact this was the clearest exposition of what and why he should be President. The delegates were behind him, other than the "Ron Paul moment" they all appeared united that the objective was to get Obama out.

Armed forces and Veteran issues.

Unbelievably the GOP seems to have taken this constituency for -granted and barely mentioned it. The DEMS hit it hard. There was constant reference to the armed forces' sacrifices and even more allusions for the disabled and unemployed veterans. Michelle Obama has made the latter issue a personal crusade. In addition the GOP did not refer to Afghanistan once. All this makes one wonder who was choreographing their circus. 

Obama brought home the troops from Iraq and has a date to bring them home from Afghanistan as the faithful were constantly reminded.

UPSHOT 

Party conventions are not known to have a great impact on election outcomes. They are what they are. It's back to business and by all accounts it is close. Romney still has all that money and the Republican state legislatures, while being challenged, are still enacting legislation or rulings that will limit the minority vote. Also the job and the economy scene are not likely to improve much by November.  But at the end of the day, JAY H ELL believes that, Obama has moved one step closer to ensuring a second term.

WHY ISN'T ROMNEY A SHOE IN?

By the key parameters that impact on voters,  Romney should be having no difficulty in winning this election. Unemployment is at an all time high, the job market is spluttering, individual debt is increasing with the housing market still in the doldrums, student college debt is at it's highest ever, the national deficit is at a record sixteen trillion dollars, high inflation looms and there is really no hope in sight. In opinion polls voters rate the two most important factors in this election are - you guessed right - Jobs and the Economy.




On the face of it Obama has failed to right the ship. When challenged about his approach, early on his Presidency, Keynesian priming of the pump, he stated that if it doesn't work, "Vote Me Out". Well why aren't the voters clearly indicating their willingness to do so?


 

Voters are obviously taking into account other parameters in selecting their President at this point in time. These include party policy on welfare, health care, minorities and women's rights. These issues cannot be ignored and hopefully when the debates get into full swing they will assume a bigger significance than they are assuming now.




Also voter demographics, big money and changing voting qualifications play a role in how people vote or do not vote.

However, for the moment it is jobs and the economy.




ROMNEY IS YOUR MAN




Romney, potentially, is a far better manager of the economy then Obama, as his experience and success at Bain seems to indicate. He is also a far better organizer, as his organization of the Utah Olympics would indicate. These are the qualities needed to get us out of this mess.


In a CBS poll conducted on 8/26/12 in answer to the Question, "Which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment"; Romney scored 52% and Obama 38%. 




To the question, "As to who does not have a clear plan to create jobs", Romney scored 45% and Obama 58%.


Now I never was much good in algebra but if A = job creation and B= lack of economy plan and C = electoral success then if we put the numbers to Romney and Obama then Romney wins hands down! (A- B =C). Romney thus scores plus 7 to Obama's minus 20!

So why are Ladbrokes, the Premier betting company in the world, rating Obama an odds on favorite to win the Presidential election? 




LIKEABILITY FACTOR.




Everyone talks about the "likeability factor". Why this should be relevant in the Presidential Election no one is quite sure but it is obviously considered important. Romney is way behind on this parameter. 




"Likeability” apparently is Romney's problem. The recent GOP Congress worked hard on this issue. (See blog ANN ROMNEY ON WOMEN, MITT AND CODE). In addition to Ann, there were Mormon Pastors, employees where Bain created success and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, including Clint Eastwood and Romney himself, all trying to change the Romney likeability image. 




WHAT IS "LIKEABILITY"?




Nobody really can define this. Ann has said "If you knew Mitt like I knew Mitt...” But for whatever reason even at this stage there are not enough takers.




We might get some idea of the disparity between Romney and Obama from the same 8/26/12 CBS poll that rated Romney far better at solving their key problems of jobs and economy. To the question, "Do you think that Barrack Obama/ Mitt Romney understands the needs and problems of people like yourself? Obama scored 54% and Romney 41%.


So the same Romney, who is best qualified in the same opinion poll to be better equipped to handle the crucial issues of jobs and economy, "Does not understand the needs and problems of the people".




So "likeability" probably relates to empathy. The latter is defined as the ability to put yourself in somebody else’s shoes - to be able to understand the world as someone else perceives it. So to put this all this into context, while Romney may have the credentials to solve the problem, intuitively the electorate believe he doesn't understand their situation as they do!




Also implicit in empathy is trust. Anyone can say, "We care about you", but if their behavior belies their words then they cannot connect with the "you". 


PERCEPTIONS BACKING ROMNEY'S LACK OF EMPATHY AND CONNECTIVITY.




What could be the reason for Romney's acknowledged lack of "likeability" i.e. empathy? There is an obvious credibility gap between all his positions on health care and social issues for example as a Senate candidate and Massachusetts Governor and his positions on the selfsame issues now. While the GOP establishment have accepted that Romney's new positions are valid it is obvious that this has not sat well with a certain part of the electorate. 




Also Obama has debunked Romney's Bain CEO experience where Romney’s objective was to make profit for a few regardless of the outcome to employees. This objective is opposed to the objective of the Presidency that is to see to the wellbeing of all regardless of "profit". Put another way it may be hard for a laid off worker to connect with the CEO who has just got a fat bonus for trimming the company at his expense.




CRITIQUE OF ROMNEY AT BAIN




Matt Taibbi has just come out with a devastating critique of Romney in the lead story of the influential Rolling Stones Magazine. He entitled it "Greed and Debt - The True Story of Romney at Bain Capitol". 

Taibbi lists questionable business practices that could only have benefited Romney and his investors. These include loading companies up with debt and then charging massive fees to tell them whom to fire to pay back the debt. Romney would also run up great debts in companies and then do the equivalent of "torching" them out of existence and collect fat fees for his trouble. There are a multitude of similar allegations. These would go to the argument that a CEO of a Company such as Bain is not a qualification for Presidency who has the interest of all Americans.




There are also personal allegations against Romney in that he shirked military service and that he ran the most expensive Olympic Games ever with massive US Government subsidies. 

These allegations are unlikely to go unanswered. 




ROMNEY'S EMPATHY AT BAIN




However there are two Taibbi allegations that relate to personal behavior and that talk to the "likeability" empathy question.


Taibbi maintains that, "Romney has always kept his distance from the real-life consequences of his profiteering. At one point during Bain's looting of Ampad, a worker named Randy Johnson sent a handwritten letter to Romney, asking him to intervene to save an Ampad factory in Marion, Indiana. In a sterling demonstration of manliness and willingness to face a difficult conversation, Romney, who had just lost his race for the Senate in Massachusetts, wrote Johnson that he was 'sorry,' but his lawyers had advised him not to get involved."




In another example Taibbi, allegedly, illustrating Romney's interpersonal relationships at Bain, writes:




"Over the years, colleagues would anonymously whisper stories about Mitt the Boss to the press, describing him as cunning, manipulative and a little bit nuts, with 'an ability to identify people's insecurities and exploit them for his own benefit.' One former Bain employee said that Romney would screw around with bonuses in small amounts, just to mess with people: He would give $3 million to one, $3.1 million to another and $2.9 million to a third, just to keep those below him on edge."




This article certainly focuses on "likeability” and regardless of the anticipated counter arguments it adds to Romney's woes.




While "likeability" is only one of the factors that go to elect a President is obviously important, Romney can take heart that Richard Nixon was elected twice without it!




One fact is for certain we will all be hearing much of this at next week’s Democratic National Conference.