ANN ROMNEY ON WOMEN, MITT - AND CODES

There is so much to write about this Republican Party Convention that JAY H. ELL barely knows where to begin. Ann Romney is a good start as her role is indicative of the way politics is being played out at present. Millions are being shelled out, there is wall to wall 24 hour coverage in every medium and there is hype and code that is used to being used to dodge facing up to the real issues that this election is all about. Ann had the unenviable task to change the GOP narrative from "War on Women" to "The GOP Loves and Understands Women" and to turn "Unlikeable Mitt" into "Likeable Mitt". This all in one speech.

ANN THE FIRST LADY.

There is little doubt that Ann is charming, poised, attractive, eloquent and highly intelligent. If this was an audition as to whether or not she would embarrass or not as a First Lady she passed with flying colors. (Mercifully however this element of a Presidential contender's eligibility has not as yet been institutionalized.) Her role was to be a key speaker at a poltical party convention speaking in support of her husband and his party - specifically, as indicated, with the two objectives in mind to get women back onsides and to turn Mitt from a frog into a prince.

WOMEN'S RIGHTS, THE GOP AND MITT.

Now one would have thought that in order to sort this matter out some of the reasons why Mitt and the GOP were getting such a bad rap with women might be addressed or the policies at least defended or explained. Lest there be any doubt as to what these policies were they were encoded in the GOP's radical Political Platform that had been passed in record time that very afternoon. (Only Ron Paul and his group got a bit testy about the fact that the Presumptive Presidential candidate can now designate all the delegates to the convention). 

The Republican Platform on political rights redressed none of the Women's issues that have given Mitt such a bad rap. In fact the Republican Platform took away all Prochoice decisions including for rape and incest. Also there were no reassurances that women had an inalienable right to contraception, preventative health care and the like. Not to mention the role that Welfare plays for single mothers out of work - you get the drift.

WOMEN I LOVE YOU!

In order to prove that Mitt and The GOP were not at war with women she dedicated half her speech to them. Inter alia, Ann said:

"You are the moms of this nation - single, married and widowed - who really hold the country together. Wer'e the the mothers, wer'e the wives, wer'e the grandmothers, wer'e the big sisters, wer'e the little sisters, wer'e the daughters".

"Your'e the ones who always have to do a little more".

"You know what it's like to work a litte harder during the day to earn the respect you deserve at work and then come home to help with that book report which just has to be done"

"You know the fastest way to the Emergency Room...."

"You are the Best - the hope of America.."

"There would not be an America without you".

Although this looks worse in the cold light of day then it sounded in the heady hall of the faithful, it is hard to believe any woman who was worried about her "rights" could have been reassured. In this day and age Ann's patter is paternalistic yet is obviously code for "Women we are not at war wer'e on your side. Trust me I am a woman too."

All this was supposedly code for we love women, some of our best friends are women how could you think we are at war with them?

MITT'S LIKEABILITY GAP

Next item on the agenda was that Mitt was real and friendly. She needed to say that he cried at night when people lost jobs at Bain and that he has gone through torture changing his mind on anything and everything. That he was furious with his Blind Trust for investing all that money oversea and so forth and so on. 

He is not"liked", in the main, because he has been framed, to quote Newt Gingrich, as a Vulture Capitalist. Not as Ann may think because people didn't know that he made her laugh. He is thought to be hardhearted not because he didn't have it rough early on their marriage but rather because he pays less taxes than someone in the middle class and wants to pay even less. He outsources jobs he is good at making money and doesn't really care how he does it. This is what Ann needed to refute or explain.

IF YOU KNEW MITT LIKE I KNEW MITT...

" His name is Mitt and you really should get to know him", Ann began.  Ann then continued with a touching story of both sides of the family - code for how they pulled themselves up by their bootstraps. Also she regaled the story of their early marriage and the birth of the children and then the reassurance that he is she knew this man and he was decent and honest and hardworking.
.

"He has tried to live his life with a set of values centered on family, faith, and love of one's fellow man. From the time we were first married, I've seen him spend countless hours helping others. I've seen him drop everything to help a friend in trouble, and been there when late-night calls of panic came from a member of our church whose child had been taken to the hospital"

All very reassuring that he is a fine fellow but what about his responsibility to the electorate he wants to represent?

Then Ann went where no one else dared to have gone before. She said what a jolly good Governor he was in Massachusetts where most of the citizens are Democrats. In the light of the campaign Romney is running this is dangerous. It is the only gesture to the middle thus far. If this becomes a talking point it has to end up doing Mitt more harm than good.

She also maintained that Bain had given so many good jobs and that Mitt doesn't tell how he has helped others as he regards it as a privilege not a political talking point. 

She then reassured America "That this is the man America needs".

Ann had done her best to reframe Mitt as being human but it is a hard task to translate that "humanism" into the politician he has been framed as. Better to say that he is a good manager has to make tough decisions that he doesn't shun from difficult situations and he really doesn't enjoy firing people.

SUPPORTING CAST.

Ann was backed on the Women thing by getting every other woman in the Republican Party that held high office to speak too at the Opening Night.  This is Code for there is plenty of room in the Republican Party for women on whom we obviously haven't declared war on. Chris Christie backed her on the women thing by talking about his mom - Code for women and we won't sell mom's Medicare down the river. However, he did not devote too much time on reassuring us about Mitt. Maybe he thought Ann had done a good enough job. However, his egotism could not have made him to popular with the new establishment.

THE SADDEST THING OF THE LOT.

With all this obvious hype, code, banalities and the like, it is sad to see political pundits in show after show discuss whether any of this moved the needle with independants or women or whatever. It really is nothing but a lovefest as none of the issues are really debated.

America, when all this fanfare is stripped away, is having an election on a number of key issues which include:

* Whether or not to accept a radical change in the way it runs it's economy to, as yet unheard of, trickle down economics with the rich and companies paying the minimum of taxes. This is taking place in an environment, as David Gergen has maintained, where the GOP administration of Bush caused the debt and job problems and the Democratic administration of Obama hasn't fixed them.

*The "Entitlement" programs of food stamps, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and Medicare are in for elimination or drastic revision and cutbacks.

*There is a proposed change in the Social Agenda particularly as regards to women's rights on abortion, contraception and hormonal therapy. This move is far reaching and on every level of Government. There are a 100's of bills, referenda on these issues at State as well as Federal level.

Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to try to effect this change. For the first time in history an incumbent President has been so badly outspent by a challenger. 

So we don't need circuses, rhetoric, homilies and banalities with the media cheerleading it on. Having heard the second night's speeches, although of a much higher standard, were no better on substance than the first. (Condi Rice's good effort added nil to answering the above isues and Ryan even less). We need an honest debate. The Conventions do not seem the best place to have it.

US ELECTIONS 2012 - FREE AND FAIR ?

American elections and their run up are a free for all in a manner unique in a Western democracy. The campaigning lasts for years. The money spent is akin to the budget of a small nation state and has become out of control as a result of the Supreme Court decision to allow unlimited anonymous moneys to be donated. This has lead to cynics to argue that we get the best Government money can buy. The advertising is outrageous by international standards. In fact anything goes and rivals will do "what ever it takes". 

But the proud boast has always been that at the end of the day everyone has the right to vote and the result is the will of the people. In the recent past this latter assertion has been challenged as a result of State Legislature Acts, Administrative decisions and judicial interventions. The most famous or infamous judicial intervention being the Supreme Court ruling to refuse to allow The Florida Supreme Court's decision to allow a recount of the vote in the Presidential Election of 2000. To jurists amazement the Supreme Court interfered in a matter that was constitutionally a State prerogative. But as that strict constitutionalist, in all other matters, Supreme Court Justice Scalia, has said time and again, "Get over it".  

ONE MAN, (sic), ONE VOTE

Universal Franchise in the US, with the rest of the word, has been a long and hard struggle. In 1870, the 15th Amendment stated that no State can deny a vote on account on the basis of "race, color or previous condition or status". It took till 1920 for women to gain voting rights in every State in America although some states had granted this right several years earlier. By the 1960's several States were still successfully thwarting African American voting. They used every possible stratagem to effect this - poll taxes, literary tests and other means. In 1965 the major Civil Rights breakthrough legislation put a stop to all of these roadblocks and provided some oversight. Ironically, it provided oversight in the Southern States and not where the current controversies are now taking place.

VOTING RIGHTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY.

Now as many as 10 States with Republican legislative majorities, several in swing states, have introduced legislation that makes it "more difficult" to vote. (See Blog CAN ROMNEY'S BAIN PAIN GO AWAY?). These States are all controlled by Republican legislatures and it is common cause that the voters that are most likely to be disenfranchised as a result will be Democrats. The demographics of the newly ineligible are African Americans, the elderly and students. It is said that for this election as many as 5,000,000, who were eligible to vote in the last Presidential election, will be excluded. 

By far the most devastating legislative intervention is the demand for some type of Government ID with a photograph needed on election day. The most celebrated example of this State intervention is the Pennsylvania legislature's recent decision to deprive 750,000 former voters the right to vote. The ostensible reason for this legislation, given by the Republican legislative protagonists, is voter fraud but no proof of this assertion has been provided anywhere. 

All manner of administrative techniques have also been introduced for 2012 that will have an impact on the turnout. These include fewer voting days for absentee ballot voting. Then there is the removal of after hour voting or weekend absentee ballot voting as another example. The most egregious example of administrative tampering is in Ohio. 

All of the methods employed whether they are legislative or administrative have one theme in common - the studies show that Democratic voters far more than Republicans will be impacted. 

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. In the most conservative of assessments it is "leaning" towards Obama. Many other pundits place the State firmly in Obama's column. Recent polls put him up to 8% points ahead of Romney. This is a state that Obama won in 2008 by 10% points. 

However, the number of newly disenfranchised would exceed Obama's 2008 majority. This is as a result of the Republican legislature changing the eligibility of registered voters to vote. These eligibility criteria had been in practice for over 60 years. Briefly, the legislature have changed the documentation needed to vote, on the day, to a government issued ID photo document. On the face of it that is not an unreasonable demand but many of the elderly and African American voters would have great hardship and cost in putting together the paperwork that is required to obtain this.

COURT REVIEW.

Needless to say the constitutionality of the Pennsylvanian Republican Legislature was challenged in Court.  The Republican defendants admitted that they had no evidence of fraud, the ostensible reason for the legislation. In fact the political rationale for this legislation had no legal basis as no prosecutions of fraud were on record. In spite of the fact that several Civil and Voters' Rights groups were contesting this retrogressive legislation, as well as individuals that walked with Martin Luther King and had been able to vote in Pennsylvania since the 1965 legislation, Judge Simpson ruled against the Plaintiffs. Judge Simpson, a former Democrat and now a Republican, ruled in favor of the Republican Legislature.

The judge recognized that the Republican Leader of the Pennsylvanian Congress, Mike Turzei, had unashamedly stated to a Republican Group, that his action was designed to put Pennsylvania into Romney's column. The Judge opined that this was irrelevant to the issues before the court.

The voters' counsel reflected that it was difficult to comprehend  that Judge Simpson had used the lowest possible standard to rule on the issue. Judge Simpson had merely ruled on the fact that the legislature was entitled to legislate on whatever they liked and had not been responsible for gross misconduct. Judge Simpson had not considered whether the State had a compelling interest to protect established voters. Nor had taken into account the rights of the voters. 

The saddest commentary on this mess is the voters' legal counsel comment on their chances of reversing of the Simpson Court decision. They argue that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is made up of three Republicans and three Democrats and if the vote is tied then Simpson's decision stands. One would hope that the Judges in this instance would consider the case in it's broadest context taking into regard the rights of individual voters.

OHIO

This swing state has been allegedly subject to administrative manipulation by the Republican Secretary of State, Jon Husted. Again, although Ohio is recognized as Obama leaning, with it's big reliance on the auto industry that Obama bailed out. (Obama won it by close on 5% in 2008).  Initially, Husted had ruled that in counties that just happened to vote Republican absentee ballot voting could take place after hours and on the weekend while, counties that just happened to vote Democrat would only be able to vote during the week office hours. All hell broke loose at this unashamed bias. Husted responded by saying all counties would just have absentee voting in office hours. Again pandemonium ensued as 47% of the African American vote in Ohio had been in the after hours and weekend slot that had been available to them and everyone else for election after election.

JIMMY CARTER AND "FREE AND FAIR"

Jimmy Carter, with much pomp and circumstance runs, around the world declaring elections "free and fair" or not. He could well spend some of his time in the USA. The "irregularities" span from legislation, to administrative matters such as "early voting", mechanical problems such as machine glitches, influence of money and so on.... . 

Ironically, he need not worry about voter fraud - this being the rationale for all the retrogressive legislature that removes voters from the rolls as apparently no-one can prove voter fraud. In fact over 5 years there are less than 40 cases per year of voter fraud throughout the whole country. That is 0. 7 cases per state per year. A number hardy likely to impact an election result. Certainly far less than 5,000,000 voters in the United States that risk disenfranchisement in 2012 by the current sheninagins.

THE UNRAVELLING OF A RYAN - POST AKIN

It has happened far quicker than JAY H ELL imagined. (See blogs A RYAN FOR A PALIN AND A LUCKY OBAMA and THE NOT SO PRIVATE RYAN AND RADICALISM.) The Ryan appointment was thought to be a Hail Mary by a desperate Romney to shore up his sagging Presidential hopes. The risks of the appointment were massive. Ryan came with a documented past available for all to see. Romney vetted him fully and knew that he what he was getting. Moreover he had to accept that with Ryan's detailed agenda as opposed to Romney's generalities it would the Ryan agenda that the team would be running on.

IN THE BEGINNING

It all started off fine. Ryan is energetic, intelligent, personable and even "likeable". The Conservative media raved and swooned. Romney morphed from a jaded campaigner to look like a live activist. They attacked on their now "clearly defined" Medicare Policy. This they did by accusing Obama, rather disingenuously, of robbing Medicare to pay for Obamacare. The ads were on TV ad nauseam. Also they said that "their" Medicare plan was better and with vouchers the free market would come into play and bring down costs. Everyone trotted out their mothers who said, "Their boy would never sell their momma’s Medicare down the river." After a delay Ryan, with mommy in tow, went to Florida and vowed to look after Medicare liked he looked after his Momma. 

Romney must win Florida to have a chance at the Presidency. So they took the bull by the horns and went for it. The Romney campaign was on the attack at last. Florida has the largest percentage of seniors in the US. At least they were now giving it a full go and they were leading with Medicare potentially their biggest liability. 

Finally they could get down to discuss the economy - Obama's Achilles heal and their strength.

AND THEN ALONG CAME AKIN...

Congressman Akin was running against Claire Macasskill for the Missouri Senate seat. The latter seat is the most vulnerable to loss to the Republicans. Aiken on being interviewed on local TV stated that the only time he could agree for an abortion was for "legitimate" rape. What he really meant by that was "forcible" rape. He apologized no - one was quite sure for what. He admitted rape was terrible and he had misspoke and used a "wrong" word and that was that.

The statement went viral and before you knew it the whole Republican establishment wanted him out of the race from the Chairman of the GOP to every Republican spokesperson. Romney first started by saying "He would not have used those words", then as the issue became more central, he and Ryan issued a statement that they were in favor of abortion in incest and rape and finally Romney told Akin to get out of the race and that "Rape was Rape". Akin was told that he was not welcome at the Republican convention the next week. Karl Rove's PAC withdrew all further moneys from him. Shaun Hannity one of Fox's centerpieces told Akin for the good of the Conservative Republican Cause he needed to get out of the race as his statement would become a magnet for attention and a defining issue in the November elections. 

But after "careful consideration" Akin stuck to his guns and refused to withdraw as he was after all the Missouri Republicans' choice and he could not let them down. Rubbing salt into the wounds he did the rounds of the morning talk shows sucking up all the political oxygen. This on day three of the crises.

WHY THE FUSS?

Number one reason is that you would never have guessed who was Akin's number one co-sponsor of a number of Bills on abortion, contraception and the like? You guessed right - Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Even worse there were 200 other Republicans who cosigned House Resolution 3 - "The No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act", which would only fund an abortion for "forcible" rape and in a minor for incest. Then on House Resolution 212 Ryan and Akin would have banned all abortions regardless. So with Romney he may say Rape is Rape and abortions are OK for all Rape and Incest but that is brand new. 

So Ryan is as "flexible" as Romney on difficult policy as JAY H ELL has already indicated in the last blog, THE NOT SO PRIVATE RYAN AND RADICALISM.

So number two reason there will be awakening among the electorate to ask every Republican candidate where they stand on these issues. Even worse is the decision on this issue by the Republican Platform Committee. In normal times nobody takes the slightest notice of this body even thought they are responsible for the creation of the Policies that the GOP automatically endorse at every Republican Convention. The Committee in the teeth of this controversy stated that it was GOP policy not to allow abortion for rape and incest. This was merely a reaffirmation of the GOP Platform Party Policy of 2004 and 2008! 

Also the extensive background and growth of the "movement" has been researched and produced for all to see. The argument being that is not a one-day wonder. This has been Republican thought for decades and party policy for at least 12 years.

Another unintended consequence of the establishment's frantic call to Akin to pull out of the race is that those demanding his resignation were nothing but a bunch of hypocrites. This includes Ryan and Romney who would get rid of Planned Parenthood if they could. The latter organization whose activities are what medically would be defined as gynecological services, including the occasional abortion. 

WOMEN'S RIGHTS

Now in the good old days this battle would have been under the rubric of Pro-choice versus Right to Life. Now because of the issues of rape and incest and types of rape and because this has all been linked to funding of contraception, hormonal therapy and women's preventative care such as PAP smears and mammograms, the subject is considered one of women's rights. Prior to this the GOP have been smeared that they have declared war on women's rights. This has stuck to the extent that in the female demographic Obama is 20 points ahead of Romney. It is fair to say that this is not going to help the GOP cause.

The issue is being expanded to depths never before known in the public arena. The use of the terms "forcible" or "legitimate" rape that found it's way into prospective legislation had an unbelievable genesis.  The belief was that in "true" rape or "forcible" rape women rarely if ever got pregnant as the "body shut down to this possibility" and or the woman secreted a "secretion" that was spermicidal. Put less subtly if the rape wasn't forcible the woman was "asking for it" and she didn't "deserve" an abortion.

Can this get worse? Probably as no one is letting go. It has to overhang the GOP Convention"lovefest". Every minute talking about Women's Rights and other social issues focuses less and less on the economic issues that the Republicans would like to focus on.

Also this whole hullabaloo has allowed Obama to respond to press questions, politically correctly - " What I think these comments do underscore is why we shouldn't have a bunch of politicians, a majority of whom are men, making health care decisions on behalf of women.  I want women to control their own health choices, just like I want my daughters to have the same opportunities as your sons."  "

A RYAN FOR A PALIN?

Ryan has got off to a worse start than Palin but there are still 80 days to go so who knows. Ryan and Romney are very selective as to whom they interviewed by but they won't be able to escape the debates where the moderators are fearless. They have to be relying on the massive sums of money that are to be poured into their campaign to drown this all. There is a film that is going on the circuit entitled 2016 that purports to reveal who Obama really is. There are all those State voter restriction Acts that potentially will reduce the Democratic turnout in swing states. But other than that the picture really is getting bleaker and bleaker. 

THE NOT SO PRIVATE RYAN AND RADICALISM

One of the biggest ironies of this election cycle has been the painting of Obama as some radical socialist who is hellbent on turning the United States into some failed European socialist state. In reality the real revolutionaries are the Republicans. The GOP are the ones hellbent on changing the status quo to create a utopia for unrestrained capitalism eradicating every advance in meeting the needs of society since both Teddy, (a Republican), and Franklin, (a Democrat), Rooseveldt.  The GOP approach has now been institutionalized by the appointment of Paul Ryan as Romney's running mate. (Up till now Romney has been ducking and diving as much as he could to try and appear to be in the "middle".) Paul Ryan is a Tea Party hero notwithstanding Sarah Palin's personal antipathy towards him.

RADICAL CHANGE FRONT AND CENTER

The Ryan plan, which is now front and center of the GOP platform, plans to change a century of legislation and is social engineering akin to Marx and all the others who have presumed to have all  the economic answers. It assumes that trickle down economics is inherently infallible as is unbridled capitalism with no regulations and this approach will solve America's problems. Lower taxes for the rich will de facto create jobs. "Small government" is the mantra and society will help "deserving" poor and the lazy bums who won't get a job can starve to death. Slashed are all the welfare programs whether they be health or unemployment or spending on entitlements. (Ryan's Medicare proposals were labelled by no lesser personage then Newt Gingrich, as right wing social engineering).

One must realize that there are several Ryan plans including social issues on all most anything and everything.  Ryan is first and foremost a policy wonk and everything is thought through and presented for all the world to see. He has drafted policies and Bills on a vast number of issues - most of which have not become law.

THE NEW FUTURE WITH RYAN

The upshot of the Ryan plan(s) and by far the biggest gift to the Obama and Democratic campaign is the election debate is now about the future of America and not Obama's economic past -The Republican viewpoint is now emanating from a livelong Congressman, a Washington insider, where the approval rate for that group is 10%. (Also to add to Romney's woes is the fact that a 7 term Congressman is bound to have, in the hurly burly of politics, have made several policy faux pas). The Democrats have been running against Ryan in abstentia and now they have got the real thing.

JAY H ELL'S prediction is that the decision to elect Ryan to the ticket is not only going to profoundly impact the Presidential debate but is going to effect Senate and Congress elections as well.

Ryan by the force of his personality and intellect has,  understandably, created great excitement among the GOP faithful. Besides the usual "suspects", respectable Larry Kudlow of CNBC believes he is the savior. Kudlow argues that every State leaning towards Obama is in Romney's column as a result of Romney's pick. Larry forgets he sang exactly the same song when McCain picked Palin. He called her "Sarah America". 


Ryan will inject even more money into the Romney campaign. He has already met with the Vegas tycoon, Sheldon Adelstein who has rumored to have offered to put a $100 million into the Republican effort. He will not talk about specifics but rather generalities and will ignite the landscape for the immediate future. In fact the Republican Congress is guaranteed to be a"lovefest" with the victorious right trumpeting their triumph.

THE NEW RADICAL GOP PHILOSOPHY

Just for the record the overall philosophy of the GOP ticket now is officially"Very Small Government".

Taxation:

Ryan is not subtle in his approach. He literally believes that those that obtain money from business, dividends and capitol gains should pay virtually no taxes. This group includes those are doing absolutely nothing but just collecting dividends for example. They are not being productive or creating jobs they are just hanging around. So for example Romney would pay less than 1% in taxes!

Just for the record Paul Ryan is a very wealthy individual, by anyone's standards, (not Romney's of course),  and his main income comes from his family business. A family business that has made most of it's money from "big government" construction contracts. The dividend checks he gets each month are not creating any jobs or building roads by the way. The only people he employs in his daily work are paid for by other peoples taxes.

Women's Rights:

This is a hot button issue that has barely been touched. Ryan has drafted bills that would say that life starts as a one cell zygote. He is against against all forms of contraception. He is against Planned Parenthood which not only provides contraception and abortions but mammograms and other women preventative health programs. He is also on record as saying as that if a woman comes into a hospital and will die without an abortion she should not have that abortion. Needless to say rape and incest are not grounds for abortion or the morning after pill either. So Ryan's very small government will find money to monitor bedrooms, doctors' offices and hospital operating rooms.

Wellfare:

This will be one quarter of what it is today. Ryan believes that Welfare encourages sloth and prevents people from getting out and going to work. Lumped in all of this are disability pensions, foodstamps, unemployment payments and the like.

Medicaid and Medicare.

These two are to be denuded. Medicare for the elderly is to be cut by 716 billion dollars. Patients will be given vouchers that total up to less than 716 billion of current costs. Obviously this money has to be made up by the patients. Medicaid for the poor is to be even more hit by a 800 billion dollars reduction in payments for health care.

Hypocrisy - the way of all politics.

All this has not stopped Ryan, where it has been politically expedient, to vote and act against his own principles. He voted for Bush's open ended check to the Pharmaceutical companies for medicines for Medicare. Likewise he supported the fact that Pharmaceutical companies would not be asked for bids for drugs allowing them to charge the government what they liked.  He voted for the TARP bailouts initiated by Bush and for the auto bailout by Obama. Cynics maintain that the former was the partyline and the latter because he is in the Midwest where the car industry provides jobs. He gave Romney several years of tax returns but will release only two years. He supports tax breaks for the oil companies but wants them removed from wind energy. Perhaps his most embarrassing gaffe is his very public opposition to the Obama stimulus money and the garnering of $10's of millions of that stimulus money for his constituency.

So he is far from being a purist other than where it suits him. He does however provide a stark choice of economic systems that elections are supposed to be about.



FUTURE

The fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party is now on in earnest and the "Tea Party" is winning. How the Republicans fare in this election will dictate to a large extent the immediate outcome.  If the choices are clear cut and Ryan's radicalism is rejected then the painstaking process of rebuilding of the GOP will fall upon the Jedd Bushes of this world. Whatever happens this radicalism cannot survive forever as the changing demographics of the country will not allow it.

There is of course the possibility that Ryan will triumph in the election and then the fight will be on for America.

A RYAN FOR A PALIN AND A LUCKY OBAMA

All the world is happy - the conservative base of the GOP and the Democrats. The most unhappy camper has to be Romney - the teflon candidate who bowed to right wing pressure to appoint the ideologue Paul Ryan. If any further evidence was needed that Romney would do anything to become President this is it. This “Hail Mary” is up there with McCain’s appointment of Sarah Palin. Ryan too is the darling of the tea party. This has to be the final nail in Romney’s coffin.

RIGHT WING ANGER

The writing was on the wall, that it was gonna be Ryan, when all hell broke loose, last week, on a Romney staffer. An Obama add had blamed the death of a worker that had become uninsured as a result of a Bain business decision. The well meaning staffer defended Romney by saying that had the worker been in Massachusetts he would have had Romneycare! (Obamacare).

Rush Limbaugh, the GOP media choirmaster and Anne Coulter went ballistic  - when if ever would Romney shed his “liberal” past? It is no use Romney explaining that all he was doing then, was doing what he had to do become a Governor in a liberal state. (Much like he is doing now to become President). He either had to once and for all get off the pot. So out went Pawlenty a boring old white male, who was Romney’s soul mate, as well as Portman who could have at least given Romney a chance in Ohio.

Also Romney was getting grief everywhere. Even Murdoch's Conservative Flagship, The Wall Street Journal, was hammering unmercifully.  

WHO IS RYAN?

Ryan is the author of the Republican’s new economic plan that will, among other details, end Medicare as it is known today. He will disband it and give Seniors vouchers that many perceive will leave the latter with big bills to pay. Also his tax plan, the Democrats claim will favor the rich. It really is fair to say it is a detailed alternative to government as it now is. It is 

Romney has been defined by the Democrats as a Wall Street type who made his millions around the edges with fuzzy deals and outsourcing jobs. Nobody dislikes millionaires as they all aspire to be one. The vituperation could not be put on those who have built empires “productively”. But with the mortgage crisis and bank fandangling and short selling coupled with the jobs crisis nobody likes the “Wall Street Types”.

So Romney is “not liked”.

In terms of Romney’s actual economic “plan” he has been long on generalities and short on specifics. Nobody can say that about the highly intelligent Ryan.

So the Democrats can now fill in the blanks.

This is what the plan all means. Romney cannot duck and dive and will have to stand by every last proposal in the Ryan plan.

DEMOCRAT’S JOY

It is fair to say that the Republicans in general have not trotted out the Ryan plan. It was obviously to be avoided for as long as possible. Preferably till after the election. Now it is front and center with the Presidential candidate and his friends that ostensibly benefit the most from it.

Within minutes of the announcement the Democratic  e – mails were out to all the faithful and everyone and anyone, rubbing in what they perceive to be a big advantage to them.

REPUBLICAN EXCITEMENT

This has certainly energized the Republican base much as Sarah Palin did for McCain. But the base had to vote for Romney for him to have a ghost of a chance anyway. Now he has a ghost of a chance.

Romney’s problem are the swing states with all the demographics and the polls steadily solidifying for Obama. His problem is not to ensure that Alabama lands up in his column.

MEDICARE SCARE

If Obamacare had problems because the Seniors and their children did not want Medicare tampered with in anyway can you imagine the hysteria Ryancare is going to generate. The only good news is that Ryan is not going to blunder that he can see “Russia” from his stoep.

ROMNEY NEVER WILL BE PRESIDENT

One situation any potential Presidential candidate wants to avoid is to pick someone who is going to be the center of attraction. Ryan is going to take over as he has a fixed target that fits in nicely with the way the  Democrats have framed Romney. He will suck all the political oxygen.

Even in the unlikely event that Romney gets elected he is a total prisoner of the right and he has picked his own jailor.

OBAMA A LUCKY FELLOW

Obama is one lucky fellow. With his inexperience and insecurities - not to mention his failure to deliver on his promises, he is still an odds on favorite to win the Presidency. If Obama goes down in history as a transformative President he has the Republicans to thank. They have framed into something he is not - a radical social changer. In fact he is a middle of the road Democrat but the Republicans have decided that he wants to turn America into a European "failed" socialist country. They have gone for broke. He is "UnAmerican" when, in fact he is more American, in values, than most.  His underlying dynamic is fairness but he has a desire to be accepted. Turning him to some alien who has been programmed like a Manchurian candidate just does not fly to those that really matter in this election.

It is going to be a fascinating second term.   

 

MANDELA, THE BRITISH GOLF OPEN AND IMMORTALITY.

What have Nelson Mandela and the British Golf Open have in common? A clue - the Open begins on the third Thursday of every July. Still don't get it - Mandela's birthday is July 18th. ( Now declared Mandela Day by the United Nations).  So what you say. Will it just so happens that twice in the last three years, the august Open has been the stage for tributes to Mandela that highlight the very essence of who and what this towering giant represents.  In 2010 and 2012 the Open was won by two Afrikaans speaking South Africans  -  27year old Louis Oosthuizen and  42 year old Ernie Els. The former in his acceptance speech in dedicating his win to Mandela maintained "What he has done for South Africa is unbelievable". Els, who grew up in the latter stages of apartheid waxed on the impact Mandela had meant to South African Democracy. He detailed that Mandela had called him up in 1993 to congratulate him after he had been the first South African to win an Open in the new "Rainbow Era". Now with his latest triumph he could again acknowledge Mandela and he hoped he could share a drink with him in the famed Claret Cup.

WHAT MAKES MANDELA TICK?

This type of public adulation of a politician by sporting heroes is unheard of and merits some analysis of what has lead up to Mandela's status. To describe him as an icon does not help - there are so many of those around. The secret of Mandela's magic is that he has combined so many roles into one being. He has done what no public figure has ever done before. He has combined the roles of activist, politician and empathetic, honest and non-judgemental human being into one. More than that he has not seperated these roles. They have all been present all of the time. His actions have been congruent with his words. In an era where tired cynicism greets almost anything politicians do or say Mandela stands out like a towering beacon.

Mandela never ever ducked an issue or a position because of expediency. He never was a Communist but he refused to disavow those Communists who were on his side in the fight for the rights of Africans. His political position would have been more powerful if he just abandoned the "fellow travelers" but he refused to do so just for expediency and just "use" them.

Mandela's philosophy has been to seek social justice from the word go. In so doing he was always deferential and understanding of his detractors' views. He has maintained that the hardest challenge in life was to change oneself. If one believes that you should love your enemy as well as your neighbor this value is personified in Mandela.

MANDELA AS FREEDOM FIGHTER

South Arica in those early years in the 60's, when "apartheid" was being institutionalized, was a tough arena to be fighting for equality. He was a disenfranchised black in a sea of white bigotry.The ANC had experienced  five decades of trying to impact the South African scene with attempts at peaceful change - all of which were met with more and more restrictive legislation, police brutality and finally a banning order. Eventually he elected  to go underground and perpetrate sabotage not involving risk of life. Sooner or later with the massive security apparatus in place one or other informer would have to lead to his arrest. (This is something, one believes that Mandela must have anticipated as happening sooner or later).  But before that transpired he captured the imagination of  South Africa and world. He was called the "Black Pimpernel". While originally he was the great orator persuading the masses now he was now underground organizing and trying to shake the white electorate's complacency with some sense of reality.

The West were at the height of the Cold War and Mandela and his causes were linked with Communism so only lip service was payed to his and the disenfranschised Africans plight. In fact most South African Opposition was being crushed under "The Suppression of Communism Act". Mandela was being tarred with the brush that the Communists were supporting him and he was furthering their aims. He countered that the government sought to lable all of it's opponents as communists.

RIVONIA SABOTAGE TRIAL 1963 - 1964:

This landmark trial where Mandela and 7 others were sentenced to life imprisonment was a turning point in the history of South Africa. Mandela had already endured a Treason Trial lasting 5 years where he was acquited  with a 130 others and was at the time serving a 5 year sentence for leaving the country without a permit and inciting a strike. The Government had tightened up it's legislation. It did not have to prove Treason for the death penalty they just had to prove sabotage. No one had to die.  You were subject to the death penalty even if there was no intent to kill or harm you just had to have blown up a building or an electric pylon or have planned to do so. The Government pursued the death penalty, with a vengeance, for the Rivonia trial on the basis of sabotage. The facts were never going to be in dispute at the Rivonia trial it was just going to be the sentence.

MANDELA'S STATEMENT FROM THE DOCK.

Mandela's statement from the dock has to go down in history. He has been described as South Africa's Washington, Jefferson, Franklin and Lincoln rolled into one. The speech was the clearest and most eloquent exposition of the South African situation at the time, the reason for his actions, for which he took responsibility for, and his hope for a just and equitable solution to the South African situation.  Most significantly there was a lack of rancor and anger.  There was no resorting to name calling such as imperialists or fascists or insulting the court. There was empathy at the possibility of the Court not understanding how he may have come to his decision and how the African frustration could lead to violence. At no stage did he allude to the visciousness and vindictiveness of the prosecution and their pleading for the death sentence. What is really amazing is that the Mandela statement is as valid today as it was then. Other than a couple of policy issues he was as true to his word in 1995 as he was in 1964. It was a well reasoned argument which showed his razor sharp mind, his intellect and his grasp of history.

He outlined the African influences in his life and how they had made him hope that he might have the opportunity to make his own humble contribution to their freedom struggle. He, piecemeal, pulled apart the argument that the new radical sabotage group that he had formed was at the direction of international communism or that it was the ANC's policy to accept violence. The only concession obtained from the ANC was that they would not discipline any member who also joined Mandela's small group for enjoining violence.  For 50 years the ANC'c policy was against violence and it was the government that had used violence. The ANC as an organization would not change.

He delved into the history of those oppressed that felt they had to, as a last resort, use violence. He alluded to the Anglo Boer war that was the attempt current members of the Government were involved  in their fight for freedom. The latter had left scars in the South African community. He spoke of the Israeli underground resistance against the British. He gave his reason as to why he resorted to sabotage was in the hope that it would bring economic disruption and bring the country to it's senses.

He stated that the ANC had never advocated a revolutionary change in the economic structure in South Africa, nor ever condemned the capitalist society. He admired the British and American systems of demorcacy that the Communist abored. However theoretical differences amongst those fighting against oppression was a luxury he could not afford.

He went through the disparities and inequalities in education, labor opportunity and voting rights that the Africans endured. This created poverty and a lack of human dignity.

"All we want is equal rights, because without them our disabilities will be permanent. I know this sounds revolutionary to the whites in this country because the majority of voters will be Africans. This makes the white man fear democracy. This fear cannot be allowed to stand in the way of the only solution that will grant freedom and harmony for all. The ANC has spent a half a century fighting racialism and when it triumphs it will not change that policy".

"I have dedicated my life to the struggle and I have fought against white and black domination. It is an ideal which I hope to live for and to achieve. But if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die"

MANDELA IN PRISON 

The Government hoped that by putting prisoners of different factions of African resistance together on the Robben Island prison they would sow dissension. They had not counted on Mandela's skills in involving all in constructive debate and discussion. What Mandela did on Robben Island was ultimately to ensure that the friction between rival opposition groups would be minimal on his release. The education of political prisoners from all walks of life and of differing ideologies at "Mandela University" became legend.

Meanwhile Mandela's persona was used as an international rallying point for "the cause". He became larger than life and slowly but surely anti- apartheid groups through out the world formed. His presence in prison was in and out of the news for nearly 3 decades. Whether it was Helen Suzman, that tireless lone white parliamentarian, visiting him annually or some or other rally protesting for his release he never ever was out of the public eye for any length of time.

JAY H ELL was fortunate to have a discussion with one of  his warders in the early 80's. The warder had been recruited from the former Rhodesia as a result of his "skills" at dealing with high profile political prisoners. At that stage overtures were already being made to Mandela about a release. These included going to the Transkei, where his nephew George Mantanzima, a Government puppet, was in charge. The warder said there was a calmness and serenity about Mandela - he was not about to compromise on history. He was ready to talk with the authorities and they knew where he was. 

Mandela was transferred from Robben Island in 1982 to the Cape Mainland to Pollsmoor prison. There was speculation as to the reason for the move. The most plausible explanation was given by the then Nationalist Government Minister of Justice, Kobie Coetzee, was they needed to have negotiations with Mandela.

MANDELA THE  HUMAN BEING

Robben Island was a painful personal exile for Mandela. He was estranged from his family. His letters to his wife and his daughters reflect the pain and angst at not being there as a father and a husband. He counsels understanding and care but is helpless on the day to day issues. He recognizes the hell Winnie is going through and the constant harassment she s subjected too by the Government.

His anger is not taken out on those ordinary souls that are his jailers. He shows incredible empathy with ordinary functionaries who are just "doing a job". Empathy that he would follow through on being released.

1985 "CONDITIONAL PARDON"

In 1985 President Botha offered Mandela a conditional pardon. If he would renounce violence he would be released. At this stage Mandela still could not be officially quoted as he was banned under the "Suppression of Communism Act". His daughter Zinzi read his reply. He maintained that only free men can negotiate. A prisoner cannot enter contracts. There was also no way he would accept release while other political prisoners remained incarcerated. 

 VICTOR VERSTER PRISON.

In December 1988 the Nationalist Government moved Mandela to a warder's home in the Victor Verster prison in the beautiful Paarl valley. He had a home, a cook and a swimming pool. Negotiations about the future of South Africa were obviously beginning in earnest. Simultaneously wide ranging discussions were taking place in London with exile ANC groups. Private groups including those lead by former Progressive Party leader Van Zyl Slabbert and businessmen were also now a regular feature in negotiations. One disturbing feature about his stay at Verster was reports that his wife Winnie was running out of control with a gang of thugs in Soweto again causing great pain at his helplessness.

FREE AT LAST

In 1990 he was released amidst national and international coverage. All details that needed to be hammered out had been concluded. He was the last of the political prisoners to be released. A mass meeting was to be held in Cape Town and they were running late. The crowd at the Grand Parade were getting restive. Winnie counseled going directly to Johannesburg - an action that would have created havoc and riots in Cape Town as the assembled would have concluded that it was because of the Government. Nelson respectfully listened to everyone's point of view and then stated that they he had made a commitment and he would stand by it.

PRESIDENCY AND BEFORE

Mandela was still officially the Vice President of the ANC and in spite of his de facto leadership he always respectfully deferred to Oliver Tamboo the now nominal President. Thus until the situation officially changed he showed deference to his life long partner and friend. 

There was extensive black on black violence between Chief Buthelezi's Zulus and the Xhosa ANC tribe to which Mandela belonged. Mandela and Mandela only was able to get a truce engineered as Buthelezi conceded. 

The South African Defense Force, was under a far from willing partner to the "New South Africa", General Viljoen. Again Mandela, with the aid of, it is said of former Prime Minister Botha, cajoled and reassured this opponent, who was the darling of the far right to be onsides.

There was to be no revenge - no Nuremberg trials. Rather the country would be healed by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Here perpetrators of apartheid's excesses could confess to their crimes and if they were "sincere" would get amnesty. Not for one moment did he harp on De Klerk's past role in the apartheid government. He just moved forward.

The Judiciary who had applied apartheid law was left untouched. He accepted their bona fides and commitment to the rule of law.

Robben Island would become a Museum and the guides were to be former political prisoners as well as former prison wardens. 

There is a myth that not much was done in Mandela's Presidency but the list of legislation was impressive and sweeping. 

He needed to prove the skeptics wrong. He had to find a balance between effecting change and not frightening off foreign investment and white skills in South Africa. Of course this would evoke criticism from both camps but he was steadfast. As he had said 30 years ago he would not tolerate white or black domination.

When Mandela wrote his autobiography Long Walk To Freedom he did not imply that gaining universal franchise was the end of the struggle. It was only the beginning of the end. He was not about to allow this hard fought victory to end in South Africa becoming yet another African basket case. There was a still a long long walk.

MANDELA AND SPORT

Mandela was aware of the great bond sports could create. He was also aware how obsessed the country was on Rugby Football. It was a religion among the Afrikaners. In 1995 South Africa were hosts to the World Cup and he became personally involved with the South African team. The film Invictus chronicles his involvement and joy at seeing the Rainbow Nation celebrate. A few steps had already been taken in the Long Walk. 

His interest in the success of South Africans of all colors in all arenas continued until such time as his health failed. Charlize Theron after winning her Oscar also saluted Mandela and they celebrated effusively and publically.

RETIREMENT

After retirement he worked enthusiastically on projects including  his Foundation and his number one Project Aids. Again his non judgemental and non confrontative philosophy was in evidence on the issue of Aids. Mbecki his successor, for whatever reasons had displayed a total disregard to this devastating pandemic. All Mandela needed to have done was to criticize him and there is no way Mbecki could have withstood the pressure and would have to have delivered the resources needed to combat this scourge. However, Mandela elected rather to lead an international campaign to educate and provide the resources needed to prevent and treat this modern day epidemic. He partnered with President Clinton, Bono and the rest to set up an infrastructure to meet the problem. President George Bush also delivered. So again he responded to a crises by acting rather then by attack. This in a situation where he had been personally involved. His eldest son had died of Aids at the age of 54.

On a personal level his connection with all has lead to many a tale. Just to illustrate the esteem he was held in at all levels of society and his warm empathetic response to "generosity" the tale of a former warder's action will suffice. 

Mandela's memorabilia fetch large sums of money. This has hindered the ability of his library to obtain many crucial pieces. (The prosecutor in the Rivonia trial is reported to have sold his notes and presumably exhibits for millions of dollars). One of Mandela's prison diaries were "missing". A former warder, who had it in his possession, felt compelled to hand it back to the Mandela organization. Mandela in a public ceremony thanked him, saying that they were just two old men who have joint needs and values. He praised him for his generosity returning an artifact that would have afforded him millions.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is doubtful that a nation owes as much to any one person as South Africans owe to Madiba as he is affectionately called.  Not only did he avoid a bloodbath he created a mileu whereby the transition to a nonracial society has been seamless. The world also owes this empathetic and principled statesman a debt of gratitude for his example and leadership.

The battle in South Africa is still not won. There are those that regard Mandela as a sell out and are hell bent to go on the Mugabe path. They do not understand that the path to freedom is a long long walk. The politicians that have followed him are the same old same old. So one can just pray that his influence will linger on long enough to prevent violence and irrationality.

The more Mandela's contribution is recognized the less likely this is to happen. So perhaps the Royal and Ancient Golf Club will incorporate a tribute to his greatness in their championship - even if a South African doesn't win.























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































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