There is little doubt that the "Old grey donkey ain't what she used to be", and JAY H. ELL has blogged about this in one way or another for some time, for example in ROMNEY THE GOP'S LAST HOORAH. For practical purposes the party's platform has been hijacked by the Tea Party and they are really a right wing, social conservative Liberterian party who do not tolerate compromise.
In fact we are witnessing the demise of the GOP as we have known it in the twentieth century. The only reason it is somehow hanging together is because it's Presidential nominee, who to get the nomination took over the right wing Tea Party manifesto, was a standard bearer of the old GOP philosophy. So the establishment GOP live in the hope that, when this nightmare ends and Romney is elected President, he will be kissed on the head by Karl Rove and wake up as a Reagan/Bush compassionate compromising conservative.
It is not going to happen. In the highly unlikely event that Romney does get elected he will be a prisoner of the right. The majority Tea Party controlled Republican Congress has allowed Speaker Boehner to be their spokesperson at a steep price. He made a tax/slashed expenditure deal with Obama and the Tea Party axed it. Romney too would do what he was told. There is nothing in his behavior that can make one believe otherwise. His only consistent goal has been his desire to become President.
WHY THE END
Opinion polls are invariably about national viewpoints. The Presidency is not a national election but rather a State one. The largest states getting the most electoral votes. Thus California, New York and Illinois - all certain states for Obama already give him a 108 votes of the 270 he needs to be elected. (Obama received 360 electoral votes in 2008). Also, the States that are marginal have increasing numbers of Latino voters. To a lesser extent there are greater increases of African American voters and youth as well. All demographics which favor Obama. Also women who are more consistent voters than men favor Obama.
(The Latinos are the fastest growing section in the USA and together with other minority groups are scheduled to be in the majority in America by mid century).
Thus for this election the key demographic is the Latin American vote. The latter favor Obama by 63% to 23%. The Latin American TV channels, that are extremely influential, favor Obama. Romney went all the way to the right on the "immigration problem". He really has no hope of cutting into that lead. And for the Republican Party this is only going to grow much worse. The Tea Party dominated party are supporting and initiating even more legislation perceived as anti Latino. They support the demand of "papers" from every suspicious individual who could be "illegal". (Shades of the South African apartheid "pass" laws). The controversial Arizona immigration law is about to be tested in the Supreme Court and if stands there are other Republican Governors ready to follow suit. Hardly a recipe to attract the Latin American vote.
BACK TO THIS ELECTION
Obama just has to hold on to some of the marginal states that he won in the last election and several of the marginal states have potentially far more additional Latino votes. (There are other marginal states with other factors that give Obama an edge that are not going to be dealt with in this blog).
In the marginal States that the Republicans would like to win back from the Democrats the latter's 2008 majority is reflected first and additional potential Latino vote in the next column:
FLORIDA: 234,000 710,000
COLORADO: 219,000 243,000
NEW MEXICO: 126,000 203,000
VIRGINIA: 235,000 201,000
NEVADA: 121,000 182,000
In a few states that the Republicans won there are also large potential additional Latino voters that may influence the outcome. The Republican majority is mentioned first and the additional potential Latino vote in the next column:
GEORGIA: 205,000 208,000
ARIZONA: 195,000 575,000
TEXAS: 950,000 800,000
Thus with all the crucial demographics in his favor Obama has to be the odds on favorite to win. Remember Obama can even loose a few states and still win.
IMPACT ON REPUBLICAN PARTY
For this election Romney is soldiering on and to these realities he replies, "It is the economy stupid".
However for the Republican party there has to be a reinvention. The demographics are going to get worse and they can no longer be a party just attractive to White elderly males. The most important reality is that they have to recognize that the minorities are on their way to being the majority and the Party has to recognize their needs. Also they have to recognize that compromise is the name of the game in US politics. The Tea Party agenda is not going to cut it.
Party reinventions are about as old as American Politics. It was after all a Republican, Lincoln who fought the Civil War to release slaves. It was about a half a century ago when the Lyndon Johnson had to shed the Democratically controlled South to the Republicans with the introduction of Civil Rights. We are obviously due for another one if the Republicans are going to remain competitive.
BUSH 45?
Jed Bush has already gone against party orthodoxy by attacking the party's agenda in the throes of an election. This is an unheared of heresy by such a high profile Republican.
Jed, a former highly successful Floridian Governor, said what all the Republican establishment are thinking. This no compromise attitude is getting the Republicans nowhere. This immediately brought Grover Norquist, the Republican patrician, to maintain that Bush was foolish and bizarre. Norquist is the activist that had all the Republicans sign pledges that they would not increase taxes under any circumstances. Jed Bush reminded the faithful that this Republican party would not have embraced "even" Ronald Reagan.
Jed Bush is one of the few Republicans that has some credibility among the Latin American community. He married one of them and converted to Catholicism. He is also considered the brightest of the Bush progeny. Barbara Bush remarked when George W. was elected that she would never have imagined that he would be the one to follow his dad. Jed seemed far more likely to do so.
So it looks as if there is already is a champion to remodel the GOP.
Can you imagine 2016 with a Bush versus a Clinton? It would be like old times. And there is always Chelsea and a Bush grandchild to look forward to!
......... In the meantime Obama has fired his first shot across the bows to retain and increase the Latino vote. He has ordered no more deportations of young "illegal" Latinos and those who have served in the military. Latinos are ecstatic and the current GOP have gone ballistic.
No comments:
Post a Comment