OBAMA AND SAME SEX MARRIAGE

CRASH BAM ALICAZAM...


A few months ago President Obama, ostensibly, out of the blue,   announced his support for same sex marriage. Well not quite out of the blue as he was "forced" into his announcement as a result of Vice President Biden, supposedly, shooting his mouth off at a "Meet The Press" interview. In the interview Biden articulated his support for same sex marriage. Biden has, publicly, apologized for putting the President in such a "tough spot". Obama has "forgiven" Biden because he knew Biden was speaking "from the heart".


But Biden's "Meet The Press" interview was a reasoned defense of the Administration's position, in general, and his statement on same sex marriage was a touching statement of belief - and not a rash impromptu gaffe. Also what really is the evidence, that Obama finally, pronouncing the logical consequences of all his pro gay positions, is going to do him any harm in the forthcoming election? 

In fact if one wanted to be cynical the whole episode is a stroke of political genius. It looks like an evolutionary advance of Karl Rove's playbook. The latter Republican strategist, also referred to as "Bush's Brain", believes that you attack our opponent's strengths. Obama has taken this all one step further  - you lead with your supposed weaknesses.

OBAMA'S THOUGHT PROCESSES

Obama has been a most outspoken and proactive supporter of gay rights and as to regard to marriage, as Biden reminded us, was in the process of evolving his attitude. In his announcement Obama was very much in tune with the now slight majority of American opinion, on the subject, according to the latest Gallop Poll. This showed that, notwithstanding the State referendums, over 50% of Americans were in favor. Also he relayed his thinking process as being on the basis of fairness and anti discrimination - "How could he explain to his daughters why the parents of a one of their friends could not get married"?

He appeared to connect with the dilemna the religious were having between knowing and accepting same sex couples and the logical outcome of allowing them to marry. All this taking place in an environment where for decades decent caring individuals have "come out of the closet". There are TV programs about same  sex couples and scores of personalities are known and recognized as gay. In one sense he was even behind the curve and as has been said he did not want to be on the wrong side of history.

ROMNEY

This announcement was the last thing Romney wanted or expected. The ball was in his court. His response was insipid stating that he "understood that there were differing opinions", but he was against. He then kind of compromised and said adoption by gay couples, presumably not married, should be left up to the individual states. 


He maintained that the economy was the issue he wanted to focus on. Once again his statements of the 90's were trotted out where in the Senatorial race against Ted Kennedy he had claimed to be left of  Kennedy on the issue. An Obama advertisement, (that just happened to be ready), attacked him to be uncaring and discriminatory to couples that happened to be same sex. On top of that an article appeared in the Washington Post where he was shown to be a sadistic bully as a student who was perceived to be gay.


So Obama's statement served to put Romney once again on the defensive. Also it showed him once again as a flip flopping opportunist and an uncaring one at that.


MOBILIZATION OF THE BASE.

The gays and the lesbians have formed highly successful activist groups in the past and  have been a very vocal and active minority fighting for their rights. Gay interests are served in both main parties by national committees.  This pronouncement is certainly going to activate the Democratic group to work harder for Obama. There are a sizable group of Republican gays who have had to swallow their ambitions in favor of their other conservative convictions. Once again they are being asked to be second class citizens. It is fair to say that this state of affairs is hardly likely to make them work harder for Romney. 


While no-one really knows what numbers one is talking about, the percentage of gays is variously estimated as being between 4 and 10%, they are an important group politically. This particularly so when one realizes that only about 50% of the citizens vote and gays are politically far more aware than the general population.


DOWNSIDE


What if Santorum was right? He has stated that the President has given the GOP a great opportunity with this decision. He urged Romney to use it! The fundamentalist sermons have been that much more vehement against Obama. But were any of the choir going to vote for Obama anyway? Romney never took Santorum's advice and dropped the issue like a ton of bricks.


One group that could have produced a tinge of worry is his African American base.  They are the one group where the majority  are against same sex marriage. But the preachers, who are out in full force on Sundays, were for the most part against the policy but still for Obama. The polls now show that the majority of African American now favor same sex marriage.


AT THE END OF THE DAY.


This move put Romney on the defensive and emphasized his dependence on the Conservative Republican base. Romney is being given little breathing space to work on getting the centrist independents on board. He has been made to keep his eye on the base.  Also revered independent minded leaders such as Colin Powell have come out in favor of Obama's position.


Rove and his Political Action Committee will have to rethink their ads where they were going to say that, "Once re-elected Obama will advocate for same sex marriage", - he has already. So whether this has slightly hindered or helped Obama at this stage is not really the point. He has blunted the type of social attack that the Republicans have used in the past few elections to mobilize the base as election day approaches. 

However, this was a gutsy move by Obama and the jury is still out. It involved risk. However a few months after the event no - one is talking very much about it and Obama's move has probably proved the right one. The only two groups are still regarding it as central are the Gays and Lesbians and that can only be positive for Obama.


One only wishes Obama would take the same chances governing as he does electioneering.