STILL ANYONE BUT ROMNEY?

No sooner had the Republican Party Establishment heaved a massive collective sigh of Floridian relief that Mitt had finally shaken off all the "Anyone but Romney" candidates, up popped Santorum again. The latter won the Republican trifecta of Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota. This after the Conservative Republican stalwarts, Bush senior, Bob Dole, Donald Trump and Tom Delay had joined in and anointed Romney. The other "Anything but" candidates either had a good excuse - the sloppy Gingrich was not even on one of the ballots and the other - the immovable Ron Paul put in very credible performances even besting Romney in one of them. So at the end of the day the combined "Anything buts" still have more votes than the real thing - Romney.


WHAT IS GOOD FOR GENERAL MOTORS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA?


That there are panic stations is a masterpiece of understatement. This was reflected in THE Republican Godfather Karl, (as in Marx), Rove's rave against Clint Eastwood's advert for the Detroit Car Industry during the Super Bowl. Clint, a card carrying Republican, was patriotically extolling the dramatic come back of the Detroit car industry - ala never count America out. Karl said Clint was shilling for Obama who had bailed out the car industry and was claiming kudus for it. (In fact Obama is claiming saving a million and a half jobs by his action). Karl was made to look even more ridiculous when Clint - dryly, (how else?), reassured all that he was not for Obama but, one assumes, as the ad states, for America!


WHY NOW SANTORUM?


There are lot of reasons for Santorum's success. The chief one is that there is no enthusiasm for Romney. What there is, is related to his financial managerial skills. Those however have taken a sustained knock. Also his insensitivity is monumental - he is "not too worried about the poor". His penchant for firing does not ring well in the current climate etc etc. Also his chameleon like approach to key policies has never helped. Added to this the economy may be turning around and his whole campaign is really based on that it couldn't.


As Romney's cause was beginning to fade circumstances allowed Santorum to go to town on his issue - Social Conservatism. Just as the economic numbers looked better Obama got broadsided by the Catholic Church. The reason for this was the introduction of, as part of his Health Care Plan, The Institute of Medicine's recommendation that all Medical Insurance Companies include free contraceptive services for women. The new injunction did exempt the Churches but not their institutions such as Universities and Hospitals. So Santorum's people at least came out to support his and the Catholic Church's claim that this was gross interference in Religion.


NOUGHT FOR ANYONES COMFORT 


However in these 3 Republican encounters won by Santorum, as there have been in all but one encounter to date, the number of Republicans voting was less than in 2008. This in spite of, the never before seen, media hype and the, never before seen, money that has been spent on these Republican run ups. 

The Republican establishment is banking that at the end of the day that the electorate detest Obama as much as they do and that the Republicans and the Independents will, when push comes to shove,  vote him out on Election day. To date the Republican Primaries have shown nothing to support their optimism.


The Establishment do recognize that their best bet to get this done is Romney. Santorum will really not win over too many independents let alone women with his philosophy. Paul is quaint and honest but he cannot get it done. The unstable Gingrich will be the Establishments' candidate, literally over their dead bodies. So it has to be Romney.


But if it is going to be Romney, which I believe it will be, it is going to take a long long time. This while the Republican contenders tear into each other. Also coming soon are the Southern Primaries where Gingrich has his best chance to shine thereby ensuring the prolonging of the agony. Romney of course will win Maine in the interim and so it goes.


CONGRESS


Added to the Republican woes is the fact that the Republican led Congress has a 10% approval rating. Up for a vote soon are extending the pay roll tax cut, that allows the middle class to save up to $1,500 a year and the Buffet plan that ensures that those earning a million a year pay at least 30% in taxes. If the last session of Congress is anything to go by acceptance of these will not come easily. Obama has already warned Congress not to "muck up" the economic recovery. 


Romney, who earns $20 million a year pays 15% in taxes. It is a hard hard sell for him to campaign, convincingly, that if this tax increase is enacted it will be bad for job growth! But if that is the Republican congressional line, which in all probability it will be, it will have to be Romney's.  


In all probability, however, the Republicans will support the pay roll tax cut but will want some cuts in Welfare programs in return. Even if they are right their actions will delay the process and have the effect of them appearing to be against the move.


The bottom line is that the Republican Congress has harmed every potential Republican Presidential Candidate. If the economy continues to improve there is a good chance that they too will be voted out.


IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER


We still have another 8 months to go with probably billions more to be spent. Obama who personally collects more than anyone else has agreed to having Super Pacs where millions can be donated as opposed to the limited amounts that can be donated to candidates and Parties directly. He had hoped not to have to rely on the Super Pacs as he had opposed the concept. But now that the Supreme Court has legitimized them he maintains he has no alternative. The fact that he has decided to go down this pathway and not stick to the high road, that many Democrats think he should, means that he feels that anything can happen and he needs the additional potential billion dollar cushion. 


So perhaps the Republicans can take some comfort that Obama is anxious that he has not this in the bag. And who knows the Economy could worsen and Romney could become the last white hope to save America. Also knowing Karl Rove the Repubicans will do what it ever it takes and the whole process will not be pretty.


To be continued.......