The old saying, "Be careful what you wish for" has come to haunt the Republican establishment. Their mantra that undiluted capitalism is the answer to all ills is boomeranging with a vengeance. No taxation, no spending and no financial regulation - with the world awash with money and all this Country's problems will be solved.
The Republicans felt they were well on their way to achieving their goal of controlling Congress and the Presidency. There was a weak President saddled with a weak economy and low approval ratings, a favorable deck in the upcoming Senate elections and an invincible majority in the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court had effectively taken away the last restraints on pouring money to obtaining political objectives. Surely then those with money would throw much money at the candidates who believed that they should keep their money?
All the Republicans had to do was just tread water in the Congress passing nothing and blame Obama for the mess. His "socialist European" finance philosophy had not bailed us out and had just made matters worse.
ELECTORAL FINANCE CHANGE AND THE PRESIDENCY
What has upset this scenario? There are many factors but JAY H ELL will just look at one for the moment.
However, thanks to the Supreme Court interpreting money as Free Speech, the "Anything Buts" are attracting their own patrons. What better way to spend $10 - 50 million or whatever than on your own Presidential candidate? - Certainly better than building a museum or being a patron to a Mozart. So Paul, Santorum and Gingrich are still very much around. (In fact Santorum, who is totally unelectable, is heading the polls for the moment). The only possibility of a drop out is the unpredictable Gingrich who says winning his home state of Georgia is crucial. (His patron has upped his anti to $10 million a throw). Paul is funded for his objectives for the long long haul and Santorum has now become a serious, relatively well funded, candidate.
So unlimited money with little regulation as to how it is spent has not produced a well heeled candidate to take on Obama, but chaos. Adding to the irony is that Obama, in spite of his philosophical opposition to unlimited funding for political candidates, has decided, "realistically", that he will have to take this money too and Democratic one percenters have only one person to give it to.
HOW IT MAY PLAY OUT
Much fuss is being made about whether Romney wins Michigan and/or whether Gingrich wins Georgia. In the good old days such a loss would be devastating psychologically and politically and establishment support and organization would desert the candidate who couldn't even win his own state. The defeated candidates would politely bow out. Now it won't really make a jot of difference as to who soldiers on as, who needs the establishment ? Romney has their support anyway and he won't let go as he has organization and infrastructure to go right till the end. Gingrich's main patron is from Vegas is reported to earn $37,000,000 an hour. Now people from Vegas don't like to loose bets so he will probably just double down. As for Santorum he is on a messianic mission and is funded enough not to stop even if he looses his home state of Pennsylvania. Paul is in it to collect delegates and make a point. He will never stop and has not ruled out a run as an Independent.
A BROKEN BROKERED CONFERENCE.
With this scenario it is really very difficult to see a clear victor emerge prior to the Republican Congress and garner the 1144 delegates needed to put a lock on the nomination. This outcome is even less likely as this time around most of the States do not have a winner take all the delegates outcome. Everyone gets some delegates proportional to their share of the vote. The last Primary is in Utah on June 26. So this is scheduled to go on forever.
That would mean a brokered nominee. Given the animosity between these candidates and the fact that Paul simply will not be interested it is hard to see how. Which of the three, for example, will "sell" his delegates, if they will agree, to become the Vice Presidential nominee? Will Romney be prepared to play second fiddle to Gingrich or Santorum - not bloody likely. Gingrich has better things to do than hang around and be told to shut up. Santorum will not dilute his message to join these half believers. He would be far better off waiting for 2016 and so it goes.
WHAT PRICE A DRAFT?
There is consistent muttering about a draft candidate. In the same breath the mutterers say how impractical and unlikely that this is likely to happen. For argument sake let us assume that there is an acceptable candidate should he or she enter the race now? This would put him or her at a tremendous disadvantage and he or she may well not get the 1144 delegates before the Convention - just adding to the mess.
No. The way to go would be to let him/her appear as a saviour at the Republican Convention itself when the stalemate becomes obvious. Now the Convention is three days long. Not much to get this act on the road. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows what wheeler - dealing would have to take place to get this finessed . Even more daunting is that this new candidate will have one month to campaign. The election is on November 6th and the Convention ends August 30th.
MEANTIME
As this all plays out Obama is getting stronger and stronger. The Republicans caved, without a whimper, on the issue of prolonging the pay roll tax cut for the middle class and extending unemployment benefits. They now face fighting against a 30% minimum income tax for those individuals earning a million a year and Obama's reforms on the Corporate Tax Structure.
... 2012 just doesn't seem to be the year for a Republican President. The best bet is that Romney gets to the magical number and then against all odds beats Obama
PS: JAY H. ELL'S guess is that Romney wins Arizona easily and Michigan not so easily.
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