FOR SALE: REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR


The old saying, "Be careful what you wish for" has come to haunt the Republican establishment. Their mantra that undiluted capitalism is the answer to all ills is boomeranging with a vengeance. No taxation, no spending and no financial regulation - with the world awash with money and all this Country's problems will be solved.


The Republicans felt they were well on their way to achieving their goal of controlling Congress and the Presidency. There was a weak President saddled with a weak economy and low approval ratings, a favorable deck in the upcoming Senate elections and an invincible majority in the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court had effectively taken away the last restraints on pouring money to obtaining political objectives. Surely then those with money would throw much money at the candidates who believed that they should keep their money? 


All the Republicans had to do was just tread water in the Congress passing nothing and blame Obama for the mess. His "socialist European" finance philosophy had not bailed us out and had just made matters worse. 


ELECTORAL FINANCE CHANGE AND THE PRESIDENCY

What has upset this scenario? There are many factors but JAY H ELL will just look at one for the moment.

First and foremost is that the Republican voters cannot decide who is to be their Presidential candidate. "Anyone but Obama" has been replaced by "Anyone but Romney". However it is looking increasingly more possible that the three "Anyone Buts" will, together, have a majority of delegates. In the good old days, after the establishment's candidate Romney's convincing victories in  states like Florida and Nevada, the "Anything Buts" would have been blown out. Who could afford to take on the establishment infrastructure with their resources after those convincing wins in key swing states ?  


However, thanks to the Supreme Court interpreting money as Free Speech, the "Anything Buts" are attracting their own patrons. What better way to spend $10 - 50 million or whatever than on your own Presidential candidate? - Certainly better than building a museum or being a patron to a Mozart. So Paul, Santorum and Gingrich are still very much around. (In fact Santorum, who is totally unelectable, is heading the polls for the moment). The only possibility of a drop out is the unpredictable Gingrich who says winning his home state of Georgia is crucial. (His patron has upped his anti to $10 million a throw). Paul is funded for his objectives for the long long haul and Santorum has now become a serious, relatively well funded, candidate.


So unlimited money with little regulation as to how it is spent has not produced a well heeled candidate to take on Obama, but chaos. Adding to the irony is that Obama, in spite of his philosophical opposition to unlimited funding for political candidates, has decided, "realistically", that he will have to take this money too and Democratic one percenters have only one person to give it to.  


HOW IT MAY PLAY OUT


Much fuss is being made about whether Romney wins Michigan and/or whether Gingrich wins Georgia. In the good old days such a loss would be devastating psychologically and politically and establishment support and organization would desert the candidate who couldn't even win his own state. The defeated candidates would politely bow out. Now it won't really make a jot of difference as to who soldiers on as, who needs the establishment ? Romney has their support anyway and he won't let go as he has organization and infrastructure to go right till the end. Gingrich's main patron is from Vegas is reported to earn $37,000,000 an hour. Now people from Vegas don't like to loose bets so he will probably just double down. As for Santorum he is on a messianic mission and is funded enough not to stop even if he looses his home state of Pennsylvania. Paul is in it to collect delegates and make a point. He will never stop and has not ruled out a run as an Independent.


A BROKEN BROKERED CONFERENCE.


With this scenario it is really very difficult to see a clear victor emerge prior to the Republican Congress and garner the 1144 delegates needed to put a lock on the nomination. This outcome is even less likely as this time around most of the States do not have a winner take all the delegates outcome.  Everyone gets some delegates proportional to their share of the vote. The last Primary is in Utah on June 26. So this is scheduled to go on forever.

That would mean a brokered nominee. Given the animosity between these candidates and the fact that Paul simply will not be interested it is hard to see how. Which of the three, for example, will "sell" his delegates, if they will agree, to become the Vice Presidential nominee? Will Romney be prepared to play second fiddle to Gingrich or Santorum - not bloody likely. Gingrich has better things to do than hang around and be told to shut up. Santorum will not dilute his message to join these half believers. He would be far better off waiting for 2016 and so it goes.


WHAT PRICE A DRAFT?


There is consistent muttering about a draft candidate. In the same breath the mutterers say how impractical and unlikely that this is likely to happen.  For argument sake let us assume that there is an acceptable candidate should he or she enter the race now? This would put him or her at a tremendous disadvantage and he or she may well not get the 1144 delegates before the Convention - just adding to the mess. 


No. The way to go would be to let him/her appear as a saviour at the Republican Convention itself when the stalemate becomes obvious. Now the Convention is three days long. Not much to get this act on the road. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows what wheeler - dealing would have to take place to get this finessed . Even more daunting is that this new candidate will have one month to campaign. The election is on November 6th and the Convention ends August 30th.


MEANTIME


As this all plays out Obama is getting stronger and stronger. The Republicans caved, without a whimper, on the issue of prolonging the pay roll tax cut for the middle class and extending unemployment benefits. They now face fighting against a 30% minimum income tax for those individuals earning a million a year and Obama's reforms on the Corporate Tax Structure.


... 2012 just doesn't seem to be the year for a Republican President. The best bet is that Romney gets to the magical number and then against all odds beats Obama


PS: JAY H. ELL'S guess is that Romney wins Arizona easily and Michigan not so easily.

STILL ANYONE BUT ROMNEY?

No sooner had the Republican Party Establishment heaved a massive collective sigh of Floridian relief that Mitt had finally shaken off all the "Anyone but Romney" candidates, up popped Santorum again. The latter won the Republican trifecta of Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota. This after the Conservative Republican stalwarts, Bush senior, Bob Dole, Donald Trump and Tom Delay had joined in and anointed Romney. The other "Anything but" candidates either had a good excuse - the sloppy Gingrich was not even on one of the ballots and the other - the immovable Ron Paul put in very credible performances even besting Romney in one of them. So at the end of the day the combined "Anything buts" still have more votes than the real thing - Romney.


WHAT IS GOOD FOR GENERAL MOTORS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA?


That there are panic stations is a masterpiece of understatement. This was reflected in THE Republican Godfather Karl, (as in Marx), Rove's rave against Clint Eastwood's advert for the Detroit Car Industry during the Super Bowl. Clint, a card carrying Republican, was patriotically extolling the dramatic come back of the Detroit car industry - ala never count America out. Karl said Clint was shilling for Obama who had bailed out the car industry and was claiming kudus for it. (In fact Obama is claiming saving a million and a half jobs by his action). Karl was made to look even more ridiculous when Clint - dryly, (how else?), reassured all that he was not for Obama but, one assumes, as the ad states, for America!


WHY NOW SANTORUM?


There are lot of reasons for Santorum's success. The chief one is that there is no enthusiasm for Romney. What there is, is related to his financial managerial skills. Those however have taken a sustained knock. Also his insensitivity is monumental - he is "not too worried about the poor". His penchant for firing does not ring well in the current climate etc etc. Also his chameleon like approach to key policies has never helped. Added to this the economy may be turning around and his whole campaign is really based on that it couldn't.


As Romney's cause was beginning to fade circumstances allowed Santorum to go to town on his issue - Social Conservatism. Just as the economic numbers looked better Obama got broadsided by the Catholic Church. The reason for this was the introduction of, as part of his Health Care Plan, The Institute of Medicine's recommendation that all Medical Insurance Companies include free contraceptive services for women. The new injunction did exempt the Churches but not their institutions such as Universities and Hospitals. So Santorum's people at least came out to support his and the Catholic Church's claim that this was gross interference in Religion.


NOUGHT FOR ANYONES COMFORT 


However in these 3 Republican encounters won by Santorum, as there have been in all but one encounter to date, the number of Republicans voting was less than in 2008. This in spite of, the never before seen, media hype and the, never before seen, money that has been spent on these Republican run ups. 

The Republican establishment is banking that at the end of the day that the electorate detest Obama as much as they do and that the Republicans and the Independents will, when push comes to shove,  vote him out on Election day. To date the Republican Primaries have shown nothing to support their optimism.


The Establishment do recognize that their best bet to get this done is Romney. Santorum will really not win over too many independents let alone women with his philosophy. Paul is quaint and honest but he cannot get it done. The unstable Gingrich will be the Establishments' candidate, literally over their dead bodies. So it has to be Romney.


But if it is going to be Romney, which I believe it will be, it is going to take a long long time. This while the Republican contenders tear into each other. Also coming soon are the Southern Primaries where Gingrich has his best chance to shine thereby ensuring the prolonging of the agony. Romney of course will win Maine in the interim and so it goes.


CONGRESS


Added to the Republican woes is the fact that the Republican led Congress has a 10% approval rating. Up for a vote soon are extending the pay roll tax cut, that allows the middle class to save up to $1,500 a year and the Buffet plan that ensures that those earning a million a year pay at least 30% in taxes. If the last session of Congress is anything to go by acceptance of these will not come easily. Obama has already warned Congress not to "muck up" the economic recovery. 


Romney, who earns $20 million a year pays 15% in taxes. It is a hard hard sell for him to campaign, convincingly, that if this tax increase is enacted it will be bad for job growth! But if that is the Republican congressional line, which in all probability it will be, it will have to be Romney's.  


In all probability, however, the Republicans will support the pay roll tax cut but will want some cuts in Welfare programs in return. Even if they are right their actions will delay the process and have the effect of them appearing to be against the move.


The bottom line is that the Republican Congress has harmed every potential Republican Presidential Candidate. If the economy continues to improve there is a good chance that they too will be voted out.


IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER


We still have another 8 months to go with probably billions more to be spent. Obama who personally collects more than anyone else has agreed to having Super Pacs where millions can be donated as opposed to the limited amounts that can be donated to candidates and Parties directly. He had hoped not to have to rely on the Super Pacs as he had opposed the concept. But now that the Supreme Court has legitimized them he maintains he has no alternative. The fact that he has decided to go down this pathway and not stick to the high road, that many Democrats think he should, means that he feels that anything can happen and he needs the additional potential billion dollar cushion. 


So perhaps the Republicans can take some comfort that Obama is anxious that he has not this in the bag. And who knows the Economy could worsen and Romney could become the last white hope to save America. Also knowing Karl Rove the Repubicans will do what it ever it takes and the whole process will not be pretty.


To be continued.......