.. AND THE WINNER IS ROMNEY

Finally, it is beginning to shape up for the real battle as Romney makes heavy weather of becoming the Republican challenger to Obama. Republican commentators speak wistfully of a late candidate entering the Republican race but we have been through that again and again.... Also there are last minute attempts to consolidate behind one "true" Conservative candidate, but in JAY. H. ELL's opinion, it is not going to happen. However inevitable Romney's nomination might seem the road still promises to be pretty bumpy.


ROMNEY LIMPING HOME


"Cause he has high hopes, high hopes high in the sky apple pie hopes...". Mitt is still the leading contender after Iowa lived up to it's non expectations. (See blog "The Irrelevant Iowa Caucus and the Media Circus.) In spite of all the media hysteria the same number of Republican Iowians voted -  120,000, (the population of a small town) - as in the 2008 election.  Mitt after nearly 6 years campaigning in Iowa got the same 25% of the voters as he got in 2008........ This after the big bohaai Romney made about addressing the world after the Iowa race, presumably in anticipation of a major victory. New Hampshire is not going to change the ultimate world either. All though you can be sure the Media will read all sorts of conclusions from shifts in the percentages the lesser lights get.


AS WE WERE


Thus the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still at 75%, notwithstanding the fact that the Romney and his PAC's spent millions in Iowa. The millions were largely devoted to knocking out the then Sarah Palin du jour stand in, Newt Gingrich, but another stand in, the 8th green bottle, in the form of Rick Santorum emerged as the"Anyone but Romney" candidate. 


Now Rick is not really a man of the world. He lost his own home state, Pennsylvania, by 18%, in a senate race and inter alia believes that contraception is evil and that homosexuality leads to polygamy. He too has a ton of unsustainable baggage which if he remains the 8th green bottle for very long will be trotted out. Yet he only lost to Mitt by 8 votes. Santorum moves into the new reality, with some new campaign money but little organization and will soon be another notch in the Romney belt without Romney having anything to show for it.


 Newt  Gingrich's chances in this inane race have receded - cause he has been smeared of the face of the earth by Romney with millions of dollars in negative ads. His response was to call Romney a liar. He has vowed not to drop out of this race and his one objective is to expose Romney as being a phoney. He began in the New Hampshire debates and one thing for certain he is not going to leave this race with a whimper.


In addition, a new well-endowed Gingrich PAC has bought a video exposing a ruthless and greedy Romney as a vicious corporate raider, with examples of companies he took over, costing job after job. The video claims that Romney was worse than Wall Street and this is obviously a portent of what is to come. Romney's response thus far has been unimpressive. He does not answer the allegations at all and continues attacking Obama for job losses. The most damning part of the video is that it's author, is a former Romney top strategist.


The well funded, Perry, who was also trounced in Iowa, is soldiering on with Romney is in his gunsights. (This simile is allowed because they are all probably getting money from the National Rifle Association).


ONWARD WE GO


So the traveling circus now moves onto New Hampshire where Mitt is top of the pops. He was a Governor, (then a liberal Republican), of neighboring Massachusetts and his second home, is in New Hampshire. It is in this State that he does not have to argue forcibly that he is not a middle of the road Republican. Only, in New Hampshire are his poll numbers up in the 40's.  The one percenter, Huntsman, has "concentrated" on New Hampshire and is finally making some impression. Maybe it will stand him in good stead in 2016.


NOTHING COULD BE FINER THAN TO BE IN CAROLINA


Then there is South Carolina where McCain is fronting for Romney. Romney has to start improving on his 25% in a real battleground and South Carolina is where it has to happen. The realists have to come to terms that only Romney has the resources to see this one through and the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still split and compromised.  The Tea Party Governor, Nikki Halley, in that State has joined the establishment and she is backing Mitt. 


THE LAST HOORAHS


So it has to be all over bar the shouting. And shouting there will be. And it will be ugly. Newt, still the only real potential candidate to Romney, has nothing to loose and will hammer Mitt. Perry too will make his last stand.  Santorum will make claim to the mantle of being the true representative of the Republicans but to no avail. This will continue to Florida but has to fizzle out sooner or later. In the process it is all very draining and destructive to Mitt.


The 76 year old Ron Paul has had his 30 seconds in the limelight but he has had a very consistent message over these 76 years.  He is running a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Paul has declared that this is his swan song and why shouldn't he too go out with a bang? If he decides that his bang is going to be as an Independant runner in the Presidential election this really heralds big problems for Romney. If the latter would have to choose he would rather be badgered by Paul, even exposing him to kingdom come, in Republican Primaries. This rather than taking away a sizeable slice of the anti - Obama vote in the real election.


All this is not very helpful to the uninspiring Romney, who, at best is the Republican candidate by default. His message could be summed up as, "These are my Principles and if you don't like them I have others..".  But then Obama, too, has to win this. He is the ultimate "Anybody but Romney" Candidate. He has to close the deal unless he wants  to become the tenth green bottle.


 Obama's current situation and Romney's ultimate problems we will save for other blogs. Plenty can happen in a year to cogitate on when this two year Reality Show will sadly end. But have no fear another one will start up just two years after this one finishes....