THE GINGRICH BUBBLE

Newt, riding on the boost given to him by his Political Action Committee's negative ads on Romney's business record, (See blog Romney Wounded and Bleeding), cruised into victory in the South Carolina's Republican Primary. In addition, his passionate anti media diatribe, delivered with his consumate debating skill and his nth renewal of his conservative family values, carried him to victory in this right wing State. Also he appears to have articulated  Tea Party anger. This became more evident when the Tea Party Godmother, Sarah Palin, finally endorsed him. By his victory he has ensured a long protracted and destructive Republican Primary battle that must have the Obama camp rubbing their hands with glee.


WHAT'S NEW?


Other than the prolonged battle that this result portends what else does this outcome change? It certainly does not remove the weakened Romney as the current favourite. His establishment support in addition to his financial backing and his in  organizational structure still makes him hard to outlast. However it is difficult to see him improve his image with his business and tax record unfolding. There cannot be any pretense that he is a Capitalist job creator and pays his fair share of taxes. Gingrich has thus served up Romney as the role model of everything that Obama is attacking in his tax policy. 


One thing is for sure Romney can no longer afford the luxury of not attacking Newt directly. So we will see the pot calling the kettle black on flip flopping of positions and more focus on Newt's instability. This has already begun with a vengeance in the Florida campaign and in the debates.


Also the social issues, that have been red meat to the evangelical voter, appear to have lost traction. Newt's second wife's pre - election expose of Newt's unashamed infidelity and "immorality" seems to have had no impact on the outcome.


While this ensures a tighter race it is hard to imagine Gingrich actually winning a State like Florida. There are so many constituencies there and, believe it or not, Gingrich is outdoing Romney as being all things to all people.


WHATS NEW(T)?


Even though Santorum and Paul are soldiering on, Newt has to become the "Anyone but Romney" candidate. Unfortunately for him the former two will still be taking votes from him as they have clearly defined constituencies. 


What is Newt offering to the debate other than a more passionate and eloquent anti Obama position than the rest? His economic policy is confused. He basically has brought down Romney on the same anti-  crony capitalist agenda that Obama stands for  -  a fairer tax policy and being for the victimized employees.   He epitomizes his job creating approach by maintaining that he will give out fewer food stamps and more pay checks! Other than say he will give young blacks the Janitor jobs at school he has outlined no real plans as how he will effect this. All this has done is outrage the African American voters.


He claims to be the Standard Bearer of Reagan Conservatism but he was a nonentity in that whole movement.  Also Reagan is a moderate by current day conservatism. Reagan created a massive national debt and raised taxes on enumerable occasions. And so it goes.... . Gingrich identifying himself with Reagan saves a lot of explanation as to who and what he is but is sounding like just another one of his sound bites.


Some of Gingrich's viewpoints are almost quixotic and are indicative of him playing to whatever gallery is in front of him. Speaking to a NASA constituency he was in favor of the establishment of lunar colonies!


GINGRICH AND CLINTON'S ECONOMIC FEATS


As an aside, it is quite bizzare how Gingrich claims credit for the millions of jobs created in the Clinton administration, while he was the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In addition he claims he was the architect, with Clinton helping of course, of balancing the budget for four years and eliminating the national debt. He forgets that he was no partner of Clinton - he was leading the charge for Clinton's impeachment while he was dealing, unbeknown to all, with his own  personal problems.  All this rhetoric is all very well when unchallenged but it will be tough to elaborate on over the next few months.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

In brief he almost totally relies on his eloquent sound bite "in your face" anti Obama Tea Party populist rhetoric to run on. And in effecting these devastating one liners he connects with the anger and pain of the Republican base. Gingrich is being marketed as an ideas man -  a man of vision. But he has to connect the dots.  For example, how does he get from having a "humanitarian" approach to illegal immigrants to a coherent immigration policy that fits in with being the biggest and best Conservative candidate in town?

Also he is totally dependent on his benefactors from Vegas who  financed his South Carolina win and gave him another $5,000,000 for the Florida campaign. It is common cause that without this he would have been chopped liver after New Hampshire. So far there has been no rush from other 1 percenters to join in. Billionaires are not know for their largesse and at $5,000,000 a pop soon we will be talking real money. 


So Gingrich is beginning to sound more like Presidential candidate Casey Gardener who was portrayed by Peter Sellers in his spoof on American politics, "Being There", screened about a half a century ago.


In addition, to almost outright middle of the road Republican Establishment antagonism, Gingrich's biggest problem is going to be from the real Republican right wing. Anne Coulter, who is right of Genghis Khan, is already screaming that a vote for Gingrich is a vote is a vote for Obama. Coulter's pronouncement must be a prelude for many others to join in. This eats away at his claim that he, rather than Romney, is the Conservative choice.


At the end of the day all Gingrich has done has weaken the Republican frontrunner. In the unlikely event that Gingrich becomes the nominee he will have to explain his rhetoric and somehow craft a coherent manifesto. Also he will have to explain his checkered ethical situation and how his "work" for Fanny Mac jives with his criticism for the company that many blame for the mortgage crises.


...... Only in America!

ROMNEY WOUNDED AND BLEEDING.

The attack on Romney's business record as CEO of Bain Capitol is very, very, very serious. Romney decided to run on his business record and not on his tenure as  Governor of Massachusetts. The latter  would set him up as a flip flopper de luxe.  His experience in business is the reason he should be President.  This was the alpha and omega of his brittle credibility. He maintained that he had, inter alia, created a 100,000 jobs and with his business credentials was just the guy to lead us out of this mess. 


ROMNEY'S UPHILL FIGHT


As has been detailed, in blog after blog, his fight to be the Republican nominee has been uphill and the "Anyone but Romney" candidates are many and won't give up. This business attack is something that will also not go away. Besides the merciless hammering he is getting from the "Anyone" crowd, this will dog him right till the end from all and sundry. It will also ensure that the end will be a long way off. He is now on the defensive both in the nomination battle and as the likely Republican nominee.


CORPORATE VULTURE


The attack led by Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry is unrelenting and involves, besides campaign stumping, literally millions of dollars of negatives ads. The latter is the selfsame medium that eliminated Gingrich as the number one "Anyone but Romney" candidate in Iowa. They have called him a "Corporate Vulture" and a crony Capitalist. Perry maintains that the workers suffer and a few net the loot. Gingrich links this to fraudulent activity going on in Washington and the corruption in Wall Street. 


THE RETURN OF SARAH    


Even Sarah Palin who has said nothing for months, has called for him to be transparent and reveal his income tax returns and full disclosure of "What Happened at Bain", the company that he was CEO of. This all without the Democrats saying a word.


 The Daily Beast columnist Andrew Sullivan opined, "But with Romney, we have a singular example of someone who made a quarter of a billion dollars by firing the white middle and working class in droves in ways that do not seem designed to promote growth or efficiency, but merely to enrich Bain".


OBAMA'S RE ELECTION AGENDA


This issue fits slap bang into the Obama agenda for this election. The whole issue of the rich not paying enough taxes and making massive profits at the expense of employees' jobs is part of the manifesto Obama is slowly building up to run on. To have a living example of  Romney's alleged deviant behavior exposed in all it's gory details by others can only bring glee to the Re Election camp.


ROMNEY'S COMPANY - BAIN


Bain is what is called a Private Equity Company where some of the worst excesses of  Corporations are said to take place. There are known as Corporate Raiders. They do whatever it takes to make money from failing companies. In this context whatever happened at Bain is not going to go down well. The fired will have little empathy for the efficiencies of Capitalism, especially when Mitt got millions and millions out of the process. The fired are already being paraded around. Those in Mitt' position usually pay Capital Gains tax on income which is a lesser tax than their Middle Class secretaries pay. A point that icon Warren Buffet is making for Obama every day.


All this added to an insensitive remark, admittedly made in another context, that he Romney, "Enjoyed firing people". On top of this he maintained that these criticisms against Bain and him were "envy".


GAME CHANGER


This turn of events is the beginning of a game changer. The one candidate that had the where with all to take on Obama is now wounded and bleeding. This must have the  Republican establishment pulling their hair out. Getting sophisticated theorists on Capitalism, from Milton Friedman's University of Chicago, to explain it all, is just not going to cut it. At best this is the ugly side of Capitalism.


Remember what happened to John Kerry when he ran against George W. Bush. Kerry ran on his war record which was from all objective accounts stellar. He didn't dodge the draft as was implied with Bush. He won three purple hearts. However a PAC, called the Swift Boat Veterans, smeared him of the face of the earth and said he was a phoney. The jury is still out on this issue but Bush won a second term on the doubt. Romney's credibility is far more vulnerable and in this context his credentials as a job creator are compromised. 


One thing is for certain is that nothing is for certain. In this 24/7 media madness you will be challenged if you become relevant. Truth be told JAY H. ELL had believed that Romney's business credentials were the last thing that could be suspect. But then he believed that John Kerry was a war hero!


SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND


So it is onward to South Carolina where, up to going into print, Romney is still far ahead. How this will impact this race is an open question. So many of the establishment have committed themselves  to Romney that cannot back down now. Can, for example, the Tea Party South Carolina Governor, Nikki Halley, call it quits? However whatever happens in South Carolina this issue can only get worse. It is just too hard to see it turning into a positive for Romney. Damage control will obviously lessen the damage but damage there will be.


MEANTIME.....


* A 150 Evangelical leaders are meeting in Texas on a belated effort to get behind a single "Anyone But Romney" social conservative candidate. Like anything too late is bound to be too little.


* Obama raised a record $68 million this last quarter and is well on his way to creating a record billion dollar war chest for his Presidential re -election bid. This is not Political Action Committee money, (PAC), it is for donations that are limited. An individual, for example cannot donate more than $2,500 for any one candidate.


*You can ignore all polls as to match ups between Obama and potential candidates. It has been shown again and again that whoever is in the news is at a big advantage.

.. AND THE WINNER IS ROMNEY

Finally, it is beginning to shape up for the real battle as Romney makes heavy weather of becoming the Republican challenger to Obama. Republican commentators speak wistfully of a late candidate entering the Republican race but we have been through that again and again.... Also there are last minute attempts to consolidate behind one "true" Conservative candidate, but in JAY. H. ELL's opinion, it is not going to happen. However inevitable Romney's nomination might seem the road still promises to be pretty bumpy.


ROMNEY LIMPING HOME


"Cause he has high hopes, high hopes high in the sky apple pie hopes...". Mitt is still the leading contender after Iowa lived up to it's non expectations. (See blog "The Irrelevant Iowa Caucus and the Media Circus.) In spite of all the media hysteria the same number of Republican Iowians voted -  120,000, (the population of a small town) - as in the 2008 election.  Mitt after nearly 6 years campaigning in Iowa got the same 25% of the voters as he got in 2008........ This after the big bohaai Romney made about addressing the world after the Iowa race, presumably in anticipation of a major victory. New Hampshire is not going to change the ultimate world either. All though you can be sure the Media will read all sorts of conclusions from shifts in the percentages the lesser lights get.


AS WE WERE


Thus the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still at 75%, notwithstanding the fact that the Romney and his PAC's spent millions in Iowa. The millions were largely devoted to knocking out the then Sarah Palin du jour stand in, Newt Gingrich, but another stand in, the 8th green bottle, in the form of Rick Santorum emerged as the"Anyone but Romney" candidate. 


Now Rick is not really a man of the world. He lost his own home state, Pennsylvania, by 18%, in a senate race and inter alia believes that contraception is evil and that homosexuality leads to polygamy. He too has a ton of unsustainable baggage which if he remains the 8th green bottle for very long will be trotted out. Yet he only lost to Mitt by 8 votes. Santorum moves into the new reality, with some new campaign money but little organization and will soon be another notch in the Romney belt without Romney having anything to show for it.


 Newt  Gingrich's chances in this inane race have receded - cause he has been smeared of the face of the earth by Romney with millions of dollars in negative ads. His response was to call Romney a liar. He has vowed not to drop out of this race and his one objective is to expose Romney as being a phoney. He began in the New Hampshire debates and one thing for certain he is not going to leave this race with a whimper.


In addition, a new well-endowed Gingrich PAC has bought a video exposing a ruthless and greedy Romney as a vicious corporate raider, with examples of companies he took over, costing job after job. The video claims that Romney was worse than Wall Street and this is obviously a portent of what is to come. Romney's response thus far has been unimpressive. He does not answer the allegations at all and continues attacking Obama for job losses. The most damning part of the video is that it's author, is a former Romney top strategist.


The well funded, Perry, who was also trounced in Iowa, is soldiering on with Romney is in his gunsights. (This simile is allowed because they are all probably getting money from the National Rifle Association).


ONWARD WE GO


So the traveling circus now moves onto New Hampshire where Mitt is top of the pops. He was a Governor, (then a liberal Republican), of neighboring Massachusetts and his second home, is in New Hampshire. It is in this State that he does not have to argue forcibly that he is not a middle of the road Republican. Only, in New Hampshire are his poll numbers up in the 40's.  The one percenter, Huntsman, has "concentrated" on New Hampshire and is finally making some impression. Maybe it will stand him in good stead in 2016.


NOTHING COULD BE FINER THAN TO BE IN CAROLINA


Then there is South Carolina where McCain is fronting for Romney. Romney has to start improving on his 25% in a real battleground and South Carolina is where it has to happen. The realists have to come to terms that only Romney has the resources to see this one through and the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still split and compromised.  The Tea Party Governor, Nikki Halley, in that State has joined the establishment and she is backing Mitt. 


THE LAST HOORAHS


So it has to be all over bar the shouting. And shouting there will be. And it will be ugly. Newt, still the only real potential candidate to Romney, has nothing to loose and will hammer Mitt. Perry too will make his last stand.  Santorum will make claim to the mantle of being the true representative of the Republicans but to no avail. This will continue to Florida but has to fizzle out sooner or later. In the process it is all very draining and destructive to Mitt.


The 76 year old Ron Paul has had his 30 seconds in the limelight but he has had a very consistent message over these 76 years.  He is running a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Paul has declared that this is his swan song and why shouldn't he too go out with a bang? If he decides that his bang is going to be as an Independant runner in the Presidential election this really heralds big problems for Romney. If the latter would have to choose he would rather be badgered by Paul, even exposing him to kingdom come, in Republican Primaries. This rather than taking away a sizeable slice of the anti - Obama vote in the real election.


All this is not very helpful to the uninspiring Romney, who, at best is the Republican candidate by default. His message could be summed up as, "These are my Principles and if you don't like them I have others..".  But then Obama, too, has to win this. He is the ultimate "Anybody but Romney" Candidate. He has to close the deal unless he wants  to become the tenth green bottle.


 Obama's current situation and Romney's ultimate problems we will save for other blogs. Plenty can happen in a year to cogitate on when this two year Reality Show will sadly end. But have no fear another one will start up just two years after this one finishes....