The frenzy leading up to the Republican Presidential Iowa Caucuses is mind boggling. As Shakespeare might have argued the Caucuses, "Are much ado about nothing". At the end of the day, whoever may be anointed is the decision of a 120,000 Republicans who take the trouble to pitch up to a voting event. Thus organization, money and exposure are paramount. Exposure is critical but is useless if your supporters don't get to the caucus meeting places. So the media hysteria and their multiple daily polls are not terribly relevant as the 120,000, that go to the caucuses are not necessarily representative of the sample of the 3 million polled Iowians. Even more significantly Iowa is not terribly relevant in the grand scheme of the prolonged labour that involves the election of the Presidential nominee. As an aside the Iowa caucuses have not been terribly successful in predicting the ultimate Republican presidential candidate.
MEDIA BLITZ
All this does not stop the media giving us a repetitious blow by blow commentary of the fortunes and fluctuations of the Republican nonentities involved in this year's Presidential nomination fight. For practical purposes there are two candidates for the nomination - Romney and the "Anyone but Romney Candidate - du jour". Everyone marvels how one by one the latter candidate has risen and then fallen. There was Bachman, Perry, Caine, Gingrich and now coming to you live is Santorum. Each candidate is promoted by the media and then slaughtered by the selfsame media to create an ongoing meaningless story. Santorum, in case you missed it has moved up, today, December 29, from about 6% to 16% approval to be a potential third placed candidate in the Iowa caucuses!
AND THE WINNER IS...
For those who are really interested in reality there are really two serious candidates in the Iowa caucuses race. The two are Romney and Paul. Both have extensive organizational infrastructures. Whoever wins is not very relevant. Romney will be very happy with second place as he is going to win New Hampshire and a win for Paul will translate into ziltch. Gingrich, who was top of the pops a short week ago, has said if he comes fourth that is just fine as he is going to win South Carolina. If Santorum wins, a very long shot - so what. He will be very happy to emerge from the shadows to come third. Whatever happens he has not the money, the organization and the backing to go anywhere. Huntsman is not even competing in Iowa as he is going to win New Hampshire! And so it goes......
MEDIA CIRCUS
This will not stop the media commenting and interpreting the Iowa caucuses up the ying yang. Jay H. Ell cannot wait for January 3 evening TV programs where there will be banks of learned panels interpreting, projecting and forecasting on the deliberations of the hardy that have pitched up to the caucuses. As they say in the computer world - garbage in garbage out. One almost wishes for a sex scandal to refocus the media onto something else.
COMES DOWN TO REALITY.
Even if Math is not one's strong point the Romney candidate is running at about 25% consistently. The "Anything but Romney candidates", in aggregate are running at 75%. The Romney candidate is the favorite of the Establishment and he has money and organization. In all probability the "Anything But" candidate will be the even more flawed Gingrich. The nomination process will go on for a long time. The media need this because, believe it or not, the ratings are higher on this than anything else for the moment - oh for a war!
ANYTHING GOES?
Whoever the "Anything But" candidate turn out to be he or she has a potential 75% constituency to work with. Notwithstanding this it is hard to see the "Anything But", beating Romney. The Republicans, for whatever reason, have a tradition in nominating an old warrior. The Romney candidate then has to persuade the "Anything Buts", to join in to get rid of Obama. This is going to be a hard hard sell.
If the sale does go through, Romney has got to decide what he is going to run on and how. The key issues are jobs, taxation and government programs. The 75%, "Anything Buts", are heavily into gays, marriage and other social issues that the crucial independants are not remotely interested in.
So it is a pity that have to go through with the meaningless rituals of Iowa and even New Hampshire and South Carolina, because only when these are over can one really define the debate. And before we can define the debate the Republicans, if they are still one party, need to define what their argument is going to be against Obama.
The whole nomination process needs to be rethought. Every state should have the election on the same day. If the winner does not get 50% the a run off between him/her and the second placed should occur. Then of course money and PACS should be removed from this and the Presidential election and we will be on the road to some sort of sanity. But meantime Santorum has gone from 6% to 16% in the polls.....
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
HOW CAN OBAMA LOOSE?
The Republican Party Presidential aspirations have sunk even lower than reported in recent blogs, - The Republican Presidential No Hopers and The Republican Nomination Fight - What it Really Means? The nomination process which was scheduled to be a battle for the heart and soul of the Party has no credible torchbearers in the fight. Romney is the retreaded Center Right establishment candidate, and, Gingrich, as the last Conservative upright, has become the Sarah Palin stand in for the Tea Party candidates. Neither flawed candidate, in JAY H ELL'S opinion has much of a chance of beating Obama next year.
THE AMAZED NEWT GINGRICH - THE ANYONE ONE BUT ROMNEY CANDIDATE.
The fact that Newt finds himself as front runner must come as a shock to him. The fact that he is highly articulate, a shrewd debater, savvy and intelligent has never been in dispute. However, even by his own behavior he was never ever a serious candidate. His initial campaign committee walked out on him as they said he wasn't serious and that he was using his candidacy as a means to sell his and his wife's DVD's and Books. His Presidential campaign website was plastered with adverts for the latter.
This behavior was no surprise as it was a continuation of the reinvention of his persona. Since being thrown out by his own party as Speaker in 1998 he has earned $55 million in speaking, media and quasi lobbying ventures. Besides the fact that he has more excess baggage than any airline could carry he has nil establishment support. Already the attack adverts are coming out from former Republican colleagues who at, kindest, regard him as unstable. (I have little doubt that the Obama operatives are archiving them to run in the Presidential election should it be necessary).
One just hardly knows where to begin as to Newt's handicaps. Firstly, he has to retain the Conservative base that obviously has rejected Romney. He has not been involved in the Tea Party struggle per se and the current rationalization as to why they may actually come out and vote for him is that the Fundamentalist Family Values faction, just simply love a redemption story - three wives, public affairs, religious conversions from Lutherism, to Southern Baptists to Catholicism, is going to be a stretch. There are signs of this happening in the blogosphere and by the poll numbers.
Also can the Republican Party give Newt resources after his wholesale axing and the whole House of Representatives found him guilty of ethical violations? In addition Newt has nil organizational infrastructure of his own, little campaign money and only Donald Trump spouting his cause.
ROMNEY
Romney has no credibility with the Party base and the independents. He can't really reinvent himself again as he has reinvented himself so many times that his video clips are fodder for every show in town. He has however got the reluctant support of the establishment. The crisp point is that although he has been designated the front runner he always been second to someone else in the Polls. He cannot muster 25% of the Republicans so how on earth can he win 50% of the electorate?
The only smear that either Gingrich or Romney can't level at each other is flip flopping. They have both been on all sides of most issues except marriage.
So on the one hand you have a candidate with reluctant establishment support and on the other with reluctant party base support. One of whom will have to unite both factions.
OBAMA
Organizationally he has no peer and he is back at it again. Although his original supporters have to be suffering from a "let down effect", the demographics are still in his favor. There are more youth, more Hispanics and African - American voters, all who favor him by a wide margin. He already has close on $700 million, having hardly spent a penny while the Republican Candidates butcher one another. He is beginning to find his voice, pounding the stump, berating Congress and putting forward initiatives especially in relation to job creation and taxation.
For practical purposes The Occupy Wall Street protestors are ad idem with him. Their principal fight is against the disparity of wealth in the country and how the system favors the 1% which just happens to be one of Obama's present foci. They are regularly in the news and have now have an organizational structure with full time workers in offices. They are receiving donations by the ton. Also, as mentioned in JAY H. ELL'S November blog, they have a vast potential constituency besides students - the unemployed, the labor unions, the teachers, the police.....
HOW ON EARTH?
So why have the Republican Party not a slew of capable candidates to beat an incumbent that is operating in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression? An incumbent that up till now appeared to be aloof from the political process - leaving it up to the Congress. An incumbent that received, in his own words, a shellacking in the Midterm elections. An incumbent that promised change but ended up with the same old same old....
The reason is simple - what has a decent opposition candidate got to run on? The Republican establishment has no real policy other than to deny Obama a second term. This principal objective was outlined by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, way back. Also the establishment are at a loss as to what to do with the Tea Party who have hijacked the Party. The latter seem to have a stranglehold over the Republican Congress nominating process. The Tea Party are so focussed that their candidates appear to know nothing about the real world and cannot hd the electorate's attention for any length of time.
DOMINANT REPUBLICAN INFLUENCES
NORQUIST
The dominant personalities of the Republican Party seem to be on the fringe. Grover Norquist, who does not really believe in the Federal Government - he even believes that Defence should be outsourced to Private Firms - has a stranglehold on the Republican Congress members. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican members of the House of Representatives and 41 members of the Senate have signed his pledge not to raise any taxes whatsoever.
The Republicans are thus made to look ridiculous not to renew a middle class cut of $1500 a year and pay for it by increasing the taxes, by a few percent, of those that earn more than a $ 1,000,000 a year. Also looming is the renewal of the Bush tax cuts. Obama's proposal is not to renew the cuts of those earning more than $500,000 a year. Then also Obama has proposed the Roosevelt solution to rebuild the ailing infrastructure thus providing jobs and stimulate the economy. This needs bigger Federal Government and taxing the rich.
Who can defend this position of protecting the 1% millionaire earners when 70% of the polls support Obama on this? Apparently not Governors Daniels, Christie and Jed Bush. Nor is Governor Huckabee in evidence after running a credible second, way ahead of Romney, in the 2008 Republican Primaries.
So on the one hand you have the Tea Party focussing on social issues that have not grabbed the electorate's imagination in this economic crisis and on the other you have the Establishment that is petrified to move against the Tea Party. The only thing they have in common is to remove Obama - hardly a sustainable platform for 24 hour news coverage for two years.
TRUMP AND THE REST.
The other dominant force in Republican politics is Donald Trump. To say that he is intellectually bankrupt is an overstatement. Trump's major contribution to this Presidential cycle was to claim that his investigators had uncovered extensive information that Obama was not born in America - reopening the long dead birther issue. He challenged Obama to produce his long birth certificate to disprove him. When Obama did just that he trumpeted that America owed him, Trump, a big debt as he, alone, forced Obama to produce his long birth certificate!
He is a master at manipulating the media. Initially he, was a viable Presidential candidate and now he is calling the shots from the side. He has breakfast with Michelle Bachmann and Newt has a much publicized visit with him. Romney has a telephone conversation with him saying how he, Romney, highly respects him. Perry calls him for his opinion and everyone awaits to be anointed. Trump invites them all to debate on his TV show as the world awaits Trump's decision. He also promises to run as a third party candidate if he thinks no-one is up to speed!
In all of this the likes of the Bushs' shut up as do the official establishment other than to echo what a disaster Obama has been. Even Sarah Palin has been mute for months. She obviously wants no part of the mess she spearheaded.
So what price a Republican President? You can get 4 to 1 from the oddsmakers. Not a bad price for what will be a two horse race! But remember, in this day and age of endless types of continuos media, including this blog, anything can happen - Ron Paul by the way has an extensive infrastructure in Iowa!
THE AMAZED NEWT GINGRICH - THE ANYONE ONE BUT ROMNEY CANDIDATE.
The fact that Newt finds himself as front runner must come as a shock to him. The fact that he is highly articulate, a shrewd debater, savvy and intelligent has never been in dispute. However, even by his own behavior he was never ever a serious candidate. His initial campaign committee walked out on him as they said he wasn't serious and that he was using his candidacy as a means to sell his and his wife's DVD's and Books. His Presidential campaign website was plastered with adverts for the latter.
This behavior was no surprise as it was a continuation of the reinvention of his persona. Since being thrown out by his own party as Speaker in 1998 he has earned $55 million in speaking, media and quasi lobbying ventures. Besides the fact that he has more excess baggage than any airline could carry he has nil establishment support. Already the attack adverts are coming out from former Republican colleagues who at, kindest, regard him as unstable. (I have little doubt that the Obama operatives are archiving them to run in the Presidential election should it be necessary).
One just hardly knows where to begin as to Newt's handicaps. Firstly, he has to retain the Conservative base that obviously has rejected Romney. He has not been involved in the Tea Party struggle per se and the current rationalization as to why they may actually come out and vote for him is that the Fundamentalist Family Values faction, just simply love a redemption story - three wives, public affairs, religious conversions from Lutherism, to Southern Baptists to Catholicism, is going to be a stretch. There are signs of this happening in the blogosphere and by the poll numbers.
Also can the Republican Party give Newt resources after his wholesale axing and the whole House of Representatives found him guilty of ethical violations? In addition Newt has nil organizational infrastructure of his own, little campaign money and only Donald Trump spouting his cause.
ROMNEY
Romney has no credibility with the Party base and the independents. He can't really reinvent himself again as he has reinvented himself so many times that his video clips are fodder for every show in town. He has however got the reluctant support of the establishment. The crisp point is that although he has been designated the front runner he always been second to someone else in the Polls. He cannot muster 25% of the Republicans so how on earth can he win 50% of the electorate?
The only smear that either Gingrich or Romney can't level at each other is flip flopping. They have both been on all sides of most issues except marriage.
So on the one hand you have a candidate with reluctant establishment support and on the other with reluctant party base support. One of whom will have to unite both factions.
OBAMA
Organizationally he has no peer and he is back at it again. Although his original supporters have to be suffering from a "let down effect", the demographics are still in his favor. There are more youth, more Hispanics and African - American voters, all who favor him by a wide margin. He already has close on $700 million, having hardly spent a penny while the Republican Candidates butcher one another. He is beginning to find his voice, pounding the stump, berating Congress and putting forward initiatives especially in relation to job creation and taxation.
For practical purposes The Occupy Wall Street protestors are ad idem with him. Their principal fight is against the disparity of wealth in the country and how the system favors the 1% which just happens to be one of Obama's present foci. They are regularly in the news and have now have an organizational structure with full time workers in offices. They are receiving donations by the ton. Also, as mentioned in JAY H. ELL'S November blog, they have a vast potential constituency besides students - the unemployed, the labor unions, the teachers, the police.....
HOW ON EARTH?
So why have the Republican Party not a slew of capable candidates to beat an incumbent that is operating in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression? An incumbent that up till now appeared to be aloof from the political process - leaving it up to the Congress. An incumbent that received, in his own words, a shellacking in the Midterm elections. An incumbent that promised change but ended up with the same old same old....
The reason is simple - what has a decent opposition candidate got to run on? The Republican establishment has no real policy other than to deny Obama a second term. This principal objective was outlined by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, way back. Also the establishment are at a loss as to what to do with the Tea Party who have hijacked the Party. The latter seem to have a stranglehold over the Republican Congress nominating process. The Tea Party are so focussed that their candidates appear to know nothing about the real world and cannot hd the electorate's attention for any length of time.
DOMINANT REPUBLICAN INFLUENCES
NORQUIST
The dominant personalities of the Republican Party seem to be on the fringe. Grover Norquist, who does not really believe in the Federal Government - he even believes that Defence should be outsourced to Private Firms - has a stranglehold on the Republican Congress members. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican members of the House of Representatives and 41 members of the Senate have signed his pledge not to raise any taxes whatsoever.
The Republicans are thus made to look ridiculous not to renew a middle class cut of $1500 a year and pay for it by increasing the taxes, by a few percent, of those that earn more than a $ 1,000,000 a year. Also looming is the renewal of the Bush tax cuts. Obama's proposal is not to renew the cuts of those earning more than $500,000 a year. Then also Obama has proposed the Roosevelt solution to rebuild the ailing infrastructure thus providing jobs and stimulate the economy. This needs bigger Federal Government and taxing the rich.
Who can defend this position of protecting the 1% millionaire earners when 70% of the polls support Obama on this? Apparently not Governors Daniels, Christie and Jed Bush. Nor is Governor Huckabee in evidence after running a credible second, way ahead of Romney, in the 2008 Republican Primaries.
So on the one hand you have the Tea Party focussing on social issues that have not grabbed the electorate's imagination in this economic crisis and on the other you have the Establishment that is petrified to move against the Tea Party. The only thing they have in common is to remove Obama - hardly a sustainable platform for 24 hour news coverage for two years.
TRUMP AND THE REST.
The other dominant force in Republican politics is Donald Trump. To say that he is intellectually bankrupt is an overstatement. Trump's major contribution to this Presidential cycle was to claim that his investigators had uncovered extensive information that Obama was not born in America - reopening the long dead birther issue. He challenged Obama to produce his long birth certificate to disprove him. When Obama did just that he trumpeted that America owed him, Trump, a big debt as he, alone, forced Obama to produce his long birth certificate!
He is a master at manipulating the media. Initially he, was a viable Presidential candidate and now he is calling the shots from the side. He has breakfast with Michelle Bachmann and Newt has a much publicized visit with him. Romney has a telephone conversation with him saying how he, Romney, highly respects him. Perry calls him for his opinion and everyone awaits to be anointed. Trump invites them all to debate on his TV show as the world awaits Trump's decision. He also promises to run as a third party candidate if he thinks no-one is up to speed!
In all of this the likes of the Bushs' shut up as do the official establishment other than to echo what a disaster Obama has been. Even Sarah Palin has been mute for months. She obviously wants no part of the mess she spearheaded.
So what price a Republican President? You can get 4 to 1 from the oddsmakers. Not a bad price for what will be a two horse race! But remember, in this day and age of endless types of continuos media, including this blog, anything can happen - Ron Paul by the way has an extensive infrastructure in Iowa!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)