THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FIGHT - WHAT IT REALLY MEANS

Out of nowhere and in the space of a few weeks a new Presidential Republican front runner has emerged - Herman Cain. Articulate, intelligent,witty, likeable, religious, highly successful in business and backed by the Koch brothers, (the Republican number one, one percenter),  he has become the Tea Party candidate du jour. As Perry recedes, Bachmann evaporates and Paul fades into the sunset as he has done Presidential election after Presidential election, so Cain emerges. He is not well enough known to be rejected as a flat earther and in many ways he is refreshingly forthcoming.  In some ways even to be taking this much notice of him is risky as tomorrow he maybe just a memory as Perry and Bachmann appear to be and Romney will take his rightful place as the Republican nominee. But let's take chance and Google Cain with the best of them.

CAIN THE REAL DEAL?

To quote him, he is a "real" African American, not the ersatz Obama variety. He has not been around long enough to be called a total sellout by the Sharptons and the Jacksons of this world but he is already under attack by saying "some people" use racism as an excuse for non advancement. He also maintains that the African Americans have been brainwashed into supporting the Democrats.  He has made gaffe after gaffe - on abortion, on a farcical tax plan, on negotiating with terrorists, on electrifying the fence between Mexico and USA, snubbing donors and his unashamed lack of knowledge on Foreign Affairs. Yet he remains top of the pops. His sustained position as the Republican front runner must have surprised even him and he is regrouping in order to make a meaningful run at the nomination. By every parameter he should have imploded but remember they said the same about Obama this time 4 years ago. Herman has ignored the strategically important Iowa caucus but he is polling number 1 there. There is little doubt that will change and he will charm the fundamendalist base who are starved for a viable candidate. If he wins Iowa he can win South Carolina and then who knows.....

He could not be doing this entirely on is own as JAY H ELL has indicated in his last blog. Why are the Tea Party supporters favoring him over the dismissed Perry, Bachman and Paul and the ignored Santorum and Gingrich? For the obvious reasons that they consider the latter with no chance against Obama.  Also he is African American and just might be the ideal candidate to run against another African American. He is not a Washington "insider" in a grossly anti - establishment environment. While

all the other Republican hopefuls look like yesterday's memories, he projects a fresh image and if he get's his line straight as the unashamed conservative candidate the Tea Party will live with him.

IS THIS ALL FOR REAL?

But can all this be for real! Is it really just a reflection of the parlous state that the Republican Party find themselves in to find a viable candidate? How can you really compare him to the articulate. knowledgble,  highly organized and financed Obama candidacy? After all Obama beat out Hilary Clinton. His was not an election by default but rather a conscious choice over the favourite. Also are the Republican establishment going to stand by and let this happen? In the final analysis, in the crucible of an actual Presidential race, Herman can only get worse. What this really all means, on the one hand, is that the Tea Party have not yet got a viable candidate. Even if Herman falls of the horse before he reaches the finish line of the Republican race one of the other Tea Party no - hopers would become their champion by default.

WHAT IS FOR REAL

At the end of the day the fight for the Republican Presidential nomination is a referendum on what philosophy will take control of the Republican Party- the ultraconservative Tea Party or the Centre Right Establishment . The champions of each faction, regardless of who they are, will be backed to kingdom come n the Primaries. 

Thus, the Republican establishment are slowly but surely recognizing that they have to live with the jaded Romney. The latter is the only candidate that hasn't bounced around in the polls. He has 25% support come rain or shine. Put another way 75% of the Republican party have steadfastly looked for other candidates.  But, historically, the Establishment in the Republican party have nominated a Romney type. They have a tradition of sticking to the Party faithful - the Nixons, the Reagans, the Doles, the Bushes, (by the ton), and the McCains.

Whether both factions will rally round whoever is finally nominated will yet another test as to whether the Republican Party can bind together to become a force for 2016 when a Christie, a Mitchell and a Jed Bush might be ready for a run...

THIS BLOG CORRECTS THE ONE BELOW