Saturday, October 29, 2011

THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FIGHT - WHAT IT REALLY MEANS

Out of nowhere and in the space of a few weeks a new Presidential Republican front runner has emerged - Herman Cain. Articulate, intelligent,witty, likeable, religious, highly successful in business and backed by the Koch brothers, (the Republican number one, one percenter),  he has become the Tea Party candidate du jour. As Perry recedes, Bachmann evaporates and Paul fades into the sunset as he has done Presidential election after Presidential election, so Cain emerges. He is not well enough known to be rejected as a flat earther and in many ways he is refreshingly forthcoming.  In some ways even to be taking this much notice of him is risky as tomorrow he maybe just a memory as Perry and Bachmann appear to be and Romney will take his rightful place as the Republican nominee. But let's take chance and Google Cain with the best of them.

CAIN THE REAL DEAL?

To quote him, he is a "real" African American, not the ersatz Obama variety. He has not been around long enough to be called a total sellout by the Sharptons and the Jacksons of this world but he is already under attack by saying "some people" use racism as an excuse for non advancement. He also maintains that the African Americans have been brainwashed into supporting the Democrats.  He has made gaffe after gaffe - on abortion, on a farcical tax plan, on negotiating with terrorists, on electrifying the fence between Mexico and USA, snubbing donors and his unashamed lack of knowledge on Foreign Affairs. Yet he remains top of the pops. His sustained position as the Republican front runner must have surprised even him and he is regrouping in order to make a meaningful run at the nomination. By every parameter he should have imploded but remember they said the same about Obama this time 4 years ago. Herman has ignored the strategically important Iowa caucus but he is polling number 1 there. There is little doubt that will change and he will charm the fundamendalist base who are starved for a viable candidate. If he wins Iowa he can win South Carolina and then who knows.....

He could not be doing this entirely on is own as JAY H ELL has indicated in his last blog. Why are the Tea Party supporters favoring him over the dismissed Perry, Bachman and Paul and the ignored Santorum and Gingrich? For the obvious reasons that they consider the latter with no chance against Obama.  Also he is African American and just might be the ideal candidate to run against another African American. He is not a Washington "insider" in a grossly anti - establishment environment. While
all the other Republican hopefuls look like yesterday's memories, he projects a fresh image and if he get's his line straight as the unashamed conservative candidate the Tea Party will live with him.

IS THIS ALL FOR REAL?

But can all this be for real! Is it really just a reflection of the parlous state that the Republican Party find themselves in to find a viable candidate? How can you really compare him to the articulate. knowledgble,  highly organized and financed Obama candidacy? After all Obama beat out Hilary Clinton. His was not an election by default but rather a conscious choice over the favourite. Also are the Republican establishment going to stand by and let this happen? In the final analysis, in the crucible of an actual Presidential race, Herman can only get worse. What this really all means, on the one hand, is that the Tea Party have not yet got a viable candidate. Even if Herman falls of the horse before he reaches the finish line of the Republican race one of the other Tea Party no - hopers would become their champion by default.

WHAT IS FOR REAL

At the end of the day the fight for the Republican Presidential nomination is a referendum on what philosophy will take control of the Republican Party- the ultraconservative Tea Party or the Centre Right Establishment . The champions of each faction, regardless of who they are, will be backed to kingdom come n the Primaries. 

Thus, the Republican establishment are slowly but surely recognizing that they have to live with the jaded Romney. The latter is the only candidate that hasn't bounced around in the polls. He has 25% support come rain or shine. Put another way 75% of the Republican party have steadfastly looked for other candidates.  But, historically, the Establishment in the Republican party have nominated a Romney type. They have a tradition of sticking to the Party faithful - the Nixons, the Reagans, the Doles, the Bushes, (by the ton), and the McCains.

Whether both factions will rally round whoever is finally nominated will yet another test as to whether the Republican Party can bind together to become a force for 2016 when a Christie, a Mitchell and a Jed Bush might be ready for a run...

THIS BLOG CORRECTS THE ONE BELOW 

Monday, October 17, 2011

THE AMERICAN FUTURE - MAY THE BEST 1% WIN.

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

On the surface there is total disconnect between the President and Congress on the one hand and the electorate on the other. In a political climate where the  President is running at a less than 40% approval rate and no Republican contender has more than 25% support there seems to be no saviour in sight. Although Obama should be a dead duck, the three leading Republican challengers are the political chameleon, Romney, the moderate, and the Palin stand ins, - Herman Cain, the new conservative tea party frontrunner, and Governor Perry. The more the Governor opens his mouth the lower his ratings fall. Cain, who sounds like an evangelical preacher, has never held any political office at any level and whose claim to fame is as a CEO of a pizza chain called the Godfather. Romney runs into trouble from every direction - his now disavowed moderate stance as Massachusetts Governor and his faith as a Mormon make the likelyhood of getting the Republican Conservative vote, in any election, very slim.

The fact that these three represent the philosophical factions of the Republican party is really close to conceding the Presidency to Obama. The Republican establishment have placed their hopes that, at the end of the day, all factions will rally round their stated number one priority - the desire to get the "socialist" Obama out.  One really cannot see the conservatives coming out for Romney nor the middle of the road Republicans and the swing vote Independants coming out for the Tea Party stand ins. Obama is thus on track to win the presidency by default. Obama has a simple response to his own sluggish base, "Don't expect the Almighty just look at the alternatives to me".

CONGRESS AND THE ELECTORATE

Added to the lackluster Presidential choices and disinterest is the fact that Congress has a 10% approval rating, The "do nothing" Congress is furthering no-one's agenda. The electorate are really not interested in the blame game. Obama has angered his base by seemingly pandering to the Republicans in an effort to show the cynical electorate that he wants bipartisanship and progress. He is not winning any converts for his efforts. The Republicans on the other hand are winning no friends either by steadfastly maintaining that the rich are the job creators in the teeth of polls that want to tax the rich. So everyone is getting nowhere fast. Cliffhanger situations threatening to close the government just irritate the electorate further as the politicians seem to be making obtuse points only relevant to them.

It is fair commentary to maintain that the American electorate is totally disillusioned with government in any shape or form. They feel impotent, ignored and angry. Their earlier knee-jerk response to throw out whichever Party that was in power in each two year election cycle does not help. Nobody seems to get the message.

THE ECONOMIC MILEU

And all this taking place in the worst economic times since the Great Depression - nearly 10% unemployment figures, housing foreclosures are forecast in 2011 to be more than the 3.8 million in 2010, at least 1 in 5 homes are "underwater", the term used to designate the situation when a home is worth less on the market than the amount owed on the mortgage, student loans are at record highs as Colleges charge more and more for an education that is not producing employment, the systematic weakening of "worker rights" by the courts and the States and in the current financial abyss the withering away of social safety nets - to mentions some of the woes.

Central to the financial mess is unemployment. The raw figures do not tell the whole story.  They do not include the underemployed, those no longer bothering to try to obtain a job and those forced into early retirement. Also there are imbalances with far higher unemployment among the minorities, the poor and the recently graduated Colleges students.

WALL STREET AND THE CORPORATION "JOB CREATORS"

Juxtaoposed to the parlous state of the electorate are the American Corporations.  Generally speaking, they are in fine shape. They have fine trimmed their operations for the economic situation. This has often included large lay offs. There are many that are multinational and who do not bring their profits back to the US and therefore these are not taxed. They are said to have nearly 3 trillion dollars in reserve that they are not investing in plant or jobs till times are better. What is good for GE is no longer necessarily good for America!

In addition there are those corporations involved in banking, investing and hedge funds that nearly brought down the economy, some of whom were bailed out by the government, who still persist in paying astronomical salaries to their executives and employees. It is the banks and financial institutions, in general, that are the principal targets of public anger. The "Occupy Wall Street" protesters proclaim "The Banks got bailed out and We got sold out".

So in the midst of this all are companies financial or otherwise that are still paying good dividends to their shareholders and exorbitant salaries to their executives.

THE FUTURE DIRECTION

In order to resolve this situation two opposing political philosophies have emerged to finance the American future. One believes in increasing taxation of the wealthy to finance the shortfall and stimulate the economy and the other believes that taxation of wealthy will merely curtail job creation and is counterproductive and wasteful and inefficient. Obviously there are rationalizations, variations and qualifications to that theme, but essentially that is what the fight is about.

ELECTORATE RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS.

Amidst the general apathy, populist movements have arisen. Foremost is the Tea Party, on the right, who have had a major impact in changing the Republican Party. More recently from the left we have had the "Occupy Wall Street" movement. Initially, ignored by the media it has grown and grown and grown. It has become a national movement and are now is impossible to ignore. It is in the forefront of attacking "Corporate Greed". Their slogan, "We are the 99%" as opposed to the 1% who have have disproportionate wealth and control the economic destinies of all, has resonated. In fact this movement has now become international.

The future of this movement which is leaderless and amorphous remains to be seen. Ironically to gain traction they are going to have to capture the imagination of some of the 1%. It is no secret that in order to become a significant agent for change the Tea Party received decisive financial support from billionaires, like the Koch brothers, who up there with 1.0%.

THE 1% - your 1% or my 1%

With the removal of virtually all restrictions on political donations the power of the 1% and corporations has become immense. The way American politics works is that there is almost a direct correlation with the amount of money raised and political power. So all the policy directions are irrelevant without financial backing from the 1%. The fight is not totally imbalanced and, as things currently stand it just so happens that each side of the divide has it's own one percenters.  In addition to the right wing magnates there are the Soross' and the Buffets' to counterbalance their influence.

But surely this is not what the Founding Fathers envisioned - for LIfe, Liberty and Happiness - to be defined by a few.

The irony is that if the 1% do get taxed  an extra 5.5% over every $1,000,000 they earn each year they will still retain the power they have. This has been vested to them by the Supreme Court, (5 votes to 4), who have interpreted Free Speech in the Constitution to spend as much money as you like to influence the outcome of the political destiny of the country.

All one can say is - may there always be one percenters on both side of divide and may the best one percenters win!