By all the parameters, that usually portend the political future, the Republicans should achieve their four year primary objective and remove President Obama from office. The economy is in the doldrums and Obama's approval rate is around about 30%. Even, Jimmy Carter, who was routed by Reagan, had higher ratings at this stage of the game. On top of this the Democratic base are luke warm about Obama.......
There just appears to be two problems: who or what is the Republican Party? - and once that is sorted out, is there any candidate out there that they could all get behind.
The answer as to who the Republican are is simple - The Tea Party have highjacked the Republican Party and in fact, as things stand, are the Republican Party. JAY. H. ELL has written about this ad nauseam. So far the Tea Party's biggest weapon has been winning Republican Party nominations. This they did this with great success in 2010 and in the anti incumbent climate many of their nominees got elected, giving the Republicans the House of Representatives and, as predicted, a massive headache. Since then the Tea Party, really the extreme Republican base, have evolved from the tail that was wagging the dog, to the dog itself. If this statement needs any further proof just take one look at the Republican candidates for the Republican nomination for Presidency.
REPUBLICAN AGENDA
Before moving onto the candidates let us look at the agenda the Republican Presidential Candidate, is going to have to run on. Essentially this election is going to be all about job creation with the crushing deficit as a backdrop. The Republican candidates' solution thus far is very simple - get rid of taxing the rich and the latter will be able to create jobs. In fact in the debates on this issue they call them the "job creators" as opposed to the rich. This position flies in the teeth of public opinion - who overwhelmingly believe in reinstating the old tax code where the rich pay more. The "job creators" have had 10 years to create jobs and have not done so.
Without going in to too much detail as to the Republican's policies on a decreased spending agenda just examine their policy on Medicare.(The governmental medical coverage plan for senior citizens). The current Republican policy is to ditch Medicare. (Ironically, one of their successful arguments in the 2010 election was Obama wanted to reduce Medicare expenditure by $500,000,000!) On this subject they are even further behind the public opinion curve.
So let us go onto foreign policy. Obama is officially ahead of the game here. Obama got Osama. He is leaving Iraq and beginning to leave Afghanistan. He told NATO and the Europeans that Libya was their responsibility not primarily America's and Libya fell. The Republicans are all over the place in their criticism on Foreign Relations, so much so that they won't be them raising the issue in 2012.
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
For practical purposes they are the Tea Party.
Current leader of the pack is Governor Perry of Texas. Besides the above solutions his contribution is that Ben Benanke, Head of the Federal Reserve, (and incidentally a Republican), should be tried for treason. He also wants to get rid of Social Security.
Michelle Bachmann, besides supporting the Republican fiscal agenda, adds to her resume that she will bring to the price of gasoline down to 2 dollars a gallon.
Ron Paul, who has been around forever and besides believing in virtually no taxes or Federal Government opines that we should get rid of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The agency that manages inter alia the Irene and Katrina disasters
Besides some other Tea Party lesser lights there is Mitt Romney. In his mind, the last white hope for sanity. A former Governor of Massachusetts who introduced Obamacare there, hopes by being all things to all people, he will get the nomination. What Mitt wants to say but can't is the following:
"Republican Primary voters none of your Tea Party candidates has a ghost of winning against Obama so trust me I will carry out your agenda if only you nominate me. In the meantime I have to look somewhat sane so that in the Presidential race I can appear the voice of moderation against that socialist Obama."
He is using the same tactic he used against McCain in the last Republican Presidential run off and there he didn't even come second.
THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT.
It is fair to say that there is no real establishment candidate. John Huntsman recently announced and he has no name recognition as yet. The fact that he is a Mormon like Romney cannot help. There is not a George Bush, (incidentally disavowed by the Tea Party candidates as a big spending liberal). Jed Bush is not remotely interested and is the first of the establishment to support Huntsman. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey issues a denial a day that he is not running.
The Republican establishment keep hanging around waiting for Godot and he/she is not appearing. It looks like the inbreeding of the establishment has finally produced sterility.
Not that they aren't to blame for this mess. In effect they created the Tea Party. Karl Rove mobilized them for the unpopular Bush by announcing all types of social agendas such as abortions, traditional marriage etc that Bush never got around to carrying out. Now the Tea Party candidates brush him aside.
ON THE HORIZON.
There is thus not much to look forward to. Sarah Palin is deciding whether to make a grand entrance. Each day she waits will be harder for her to get back the oxygen she helped create for the current tea party runners. Still at the end of the day she has some quasi respectability in so far that, lest we forget, she has already been a Vice Presidential candidate. It is hard to imagine that she will let this opportunity run by.
Then there is the incumbent President himself. He is due to announce a major jobs policy on Labor Day in early September. It is difficult to hold one's breath and imagine a Franklin Roosevelt like product and it is more likely to be the same old same old. He however will continue to be assisted by the fiscal Republicans who are now saying we need spending cuts to pay for the disaster aid!
It is really very difficult to imagine how the Republicans can run on their current legislative behavior. Although the Public are unimpressed with Obama's lack luster performance they are more dismissive of Congress that has a 12% approval rating. Now Congress are the Republicans mainly and also they are perceived to the greater stumbling blocks to bipartisanship. The latter being a big priority amongst the electorate at present. Obama keeps reminding the Republicans to go back to their constituencies and tell them what they want to do.
THE ELECTORATE
They have been a few pointers as to the way the electorate feel. The NY 26th Electoral Bye Election that JAY H. ELL wrote about earlier is one. Here was a Republican loss in a traditional Republican seat.
Also in Wisconsin the Republican Governor is under siege and the Republicans lost two seats in recall elections thereby narrowing their majority down to one in the State Assembly.
There is never an equal pox on both houses and it seems that Obama for the moment feels he has more to gain by just let the Republicans noisily do their thing. On the Presidential front his biggest dream has come true. He will other run against Sarah Palin or a Sarah Palin clone. It is difficult enough for the Republican establishment to get behind one of them let alone the so-called independents. So he really has to be the favorite at the moment. In a two horse race only one can win.
As for the Republican Party, there is no reason to believe that the dominant Tea Party won't control the nominating process again and it remains to be seen whether they will ever regain their status as the loyal opposition or the responsible government.
