NY 26TH SPECIAL ELECTION AND PALIN'S TEA PARTY

FOREPLAY

A nondescript special election in the NY 26th District has turned the political world on it's head. When discussing an isolated election such as this all pundits preface their opinions by, "All politics are local and one cannot read to much into....". They then proceed to read "too much", always with the qualifier that, "This election assumes a special significance however, because......". This election is no exception and allows wide eyed pundits to extrapolate up the ying yang.

To recap, the special election was precipitated by a married incumbent, (male), appearing bare chested on some or other dating site. Now is not the time to reflect as to what that man was thinking or what continent he thought he was on. One thing is for sure his name is not being bandied about as a potential savior Republican candidate for the Presidency. It is time, however, to reflect on the opportunity this special election result has given down to earth bloggers, like me, not prone to hyperbole, to discuss the impact it might have on the world and more specifically on the political landscape of the US, which in fact is the world.

The NY 26th District has been a safe seat for the Republicans for decades. It is rural. It is conservative. The last Republican incumbent won 70% of the electoral vote. So it is not one of those results you normally wait up till 4. 00 am to see who has retained or lost the House of Representatives. In a Westminster Parliamentary System seats such as these are usually "unopposed" by the opposition. Valuable resources are not wasted on lost causes. However, as we all know, politics in the US is the number one non contact sport. America as I have opined previously is in "status electionus". TV Channels provide 24 hour coverage. There are nearly as many political blogger sites as porn sites on the internet. So it stands to reason that, at this particular point in time, this election took on a "special significance".

THE ISSUES AND RESULT

The central issue in this election was a referendum on the Republican Solution to the crippling deficit problem, as articulated by Paul Ryan and supported by 235 Republican Congressmen.  Simplistically, the Republicans believe that the problem can be resolved, predominantly, by cutting Government spending and simplistically, the Democrats,  predominantly believe that increased taxation of the rich is the answer. It is not unfair to state that this "national" issue dominated this special election. Specifically, the Democrats focused on Medicare - the "entitlement" program that funds senior health care that is eating up increasing amounts of taxpayer money. Republican Paul Ryan and his 234 colleagues in Congress had voted to eliminate that program as it is currently funded. The differing economic philosophies of the two parties were brought sharply into focus with this reality. Medicare has been generally highly valued by the seniors and potential seniors. There was no way that they would risk changing the status quo for vouchers that contribute to their healthcare cost, the Republican solution, that might leave them with large sums to pay.

The upshot of all this was that Democrat, Kathy Hocul, garnered 48% of the vote and the Republican, Jane Corwin, obtained  42% and the Tea Party candidate 9%. Whichever way one looks at it, and believe you me it is being looked at in several ways, this represents a well over 20% swing to the Democratic Party. If this swing was replicated in 2012 then the Democrats would easily retake the House of Representatives and hold onto the Senate. Also the voter turnout was as high as an ordinary election. In addition, the amount of money spent in this election, much by "interest" groups far exceeded expectations and at the very least saw to it that every viewpoint was presented and or attacked. Also the issues central to the debate were not local but national.

MY VIEWS


The results were not entirely unexpected. Polls had pointed to them and the Republican pollsters had warned that there was a general disenchantment to the Ryan plan throughout the country. So what does this mean in political terms?

The Democrats were quick to focus on this as a key issue to fight the 2012 elections. Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic majority leader, immediately brought the Ryan plan to the Senate floor to get the Republican Senators on record on this issue. Five of the Republicans thought that discretion was the better part of valor and voted against the plan and the rest have to live with it together with their 235 Republican colleagues. So first and foremost it portends to a rejection of the Republican financial solution resulting in a return to a Democratic Congress

Besides the fact that the Republican plan is sure loser to me there is a more significant development in this election. Namely the fact that the Tea Party got nearly 10% of the vote. So had they not been there, on the face of it, the Republican could have scraped home.The Tea Party candidate was mediocre and a former Democrat to boot who got virtually no support from the Tea Party establishment. (Sarah didn't even bother to not endorse him). He was smeared of the face of the earth by the well funded Republican machine. This brought his numbers down from 20% to 10% as he hung in there. This was in New York so the social issues that the Tea Party embrace are not so resonant as they are in the "Bible Belt.  Extrapolated into the grand scheme of things the Tea Party element becomes more and crucial to the Republican party's future.  (See blog - The Tea Party - The New GOP). As things stand it will be increasingly hard to win a Republican Primary without their support.
The Tea Party supporters are purists . Their representatives that get elected are monitored by the Tea Party establishment to see that the toe the party line. (See earlier blogs especially The Tea Party, The New Congress and Palin - All You Ever Needed To Know).

Again and again the Tea Party have shown they don't give a hoot about what the Republican Party and what it's doyens have to say. They are not susceptible to the argument  that their position is likely to help the common enemy - the Democrats. To date they have been strongest in the Republican Primaries electing nominees that have no chance rather than compromise to the Republican establishment. Their de facto leader is Sarah Palin who is on the road again. Whether or not she chooses to run for the Republican nomination and or chooses to be King Maker in the next election, she has never been more powerful and well funded.

SHORT TERM IMPACT

This election changes the whole dynamic of a potential bipartisan solution to address the economic woes of the country. The urgency the Democrats may have seen earlier on has now vanished. Hang in till 2012 - 2013 and they can have their own solution. In some ways this is pretty destructive because they also buying into scenario that an organized 20% of the American electorate can control one side of the debate. They need to continue the bipartisan discussions. President Clinton has reminded them of the urgency. This  notwithstanding their apparent politcal advantage in just running agianst the Ryan plan that the Republicans are suicidally hanging onto.

The Republicans for their part need to tell the Tea Party where to get off. If they don't, they face the reality of them hijacking the party of Lincoln.  The Tea Party want nothing more that not to have to become an official third party. The latter have had no success in the US. The plan is to take over the GOP. The fascinating observation is that they are making no bones about it and the GOP establishment, need to take them on. They have nothing to loose because if they carry on, as they are doing now, pretending that this is all really part of a spectrum they are going to loose out anyway