FOREPLAY
A nondescript special election in the NY 26th District has turned the political world on it's head. When discussing an isolated election such as this all pundits preface their opinions by, "All politics are local and one cannot read to much into....". They then proceed to read "too much", always with the qualifier that, "This election assumes a special significance however, because......". This election is no exception and allows wide eyed pundits to extrapolate up the ying yang.
To recap, the special election was precipitated by a married incumbent, (male), appearing bare chested on some or other dating site. Now is not the time to reflect as to what that man was thinking or what continent he thought he was on. One thing is for sure his name is not being bandied about as a potential savior Republican candidate for the Presidency. It is time, however, to reflect on the opportunity this special election result has given down to earth bloggers, like me, not prone to hyperbole, to discuss the impact it might have on the world and more specifically on the political landscape of the US, which in fact is the world.
The NY 26th District has been a safe seat for the Republicans for decades. It is rural. It is conservative. The last Republican incumbent won 70% of the electoral vote. So it is not one of those results you normally wait up till 4. 00 am to see who has retained or lost the House of Representatives. In a Westminster Parliamentary System seats such as these are usually "unopposed" by the opposition. Valuable resources are not wasted on lost causes. However, as we all know, politics in the US is the number one non contact sport. America as I have opined previously is in "status electionus". TV Channels provide 24 hour coverage. There are nearly as many political blogger sites as porn sites on the internet. So it stands to reason that, at this particular point in time, this election took on a "special significance".
THE ISSUES AND RESULT
The central issue in this election was a referendum on the Republican Solution to the crippling deficit problem, as articulated by Paul Ryan and supported by 235 Republican Congressmen. Simplistically, the Republicans believe that the problem can be resolved, predominantly, by cutting Government spending and simplistically, the Democrats, predominantly believe that increased taxation of the rich is the answer. It is not unfair to state that this "national" issue dominated this special election. Specifically, the Democrats focused on Medicare - the "entitlement" program that funds senior health care that is eating up increasing amounts of taxpayer money. Republican Paul Ryan and his 234 colleagues in Congress had voted to eliminate that program as it is currently funded. The differing economic philosophies of the two parties were brought sharply into focus with this reality. Medicare has been generally highly valued by the seniors and potential seniors. There was no way that they would risk changing the status quo for vouchers that contribute to their healthcare cost, the Republican solution, that might leave them with large sums to pay.
The upshot of all this was that Democrat, Kathy Hocul, garnered 48% of the vote and the Republican, Jane Corwin, obtained 42% and the Tea Party candidate 9%. Whichever way one looks at it, and believe you me it is being looked at in several ways, this represents a well over 20% swing to the Democratic Party. If this swing was replicated in 2012 then the Democrats would easily retake the House of Representatives and hold onto the Senate. Also the voter turnout was as high as an ordinary election. In addition, the amount of money spent in this election, much by "interest" groups far exceeded expectations and at the very least saw to it that every viewpoint was presented and or attacked. Also the issues central to the debate were not local but national.
MY VIEWS
The results were not entirely unexpected. Polls had pointed to them and the Republican pollsters had warned that there was a general disenchantment to the Ryan plan throughout the country. So what does this mean in political terms?
The Democrats were quick to focus on this as a key issue to fight the 2012 elections. Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic majority leader, immediately brought the Ryan plan to the Senate floor to get the Republican Senators on record on this issue. Five of the Republicans thought that discretion was the better part of valor and voted against the plan and the rest have to live with it together with their 235 Republican colleagues. So first and foremost it portends to a rejection of the Republican financial solution resulting in a return to a Democratic Congress
Besides the fact that the Republican plan is sure loser to me there is a more significant development in this election. Namely the fact that the Tea Party got nearly 10% of the vote. So had they not been there, on the face of it, the Republican could have scraped home.The Tea Party candidate was mediocre and a former Democrat to boot who got virtually no support from the Tea Party establishment. (Sarah didn't even bother to not endorse him). He was smeared of the face of the earth by the well funded Republican machine. This brought his numbers down from 20% to 10% as he hung in there. This was in New York so the social issues that the Tea Party embrace are not so resonant as they are in the "Bible Belt. Extrapolated into the grand scheme of things the Tea Party element becomes more and crucial to the Republican party's future. (See blog - The Tea Party - The New GOP). As things stand it will be increasingly hard to win a Republican Primary without their support.
The Tea Party supporters are purists . Their representatives that get elected are monitored by the Tea Party establishment to see that the toe the party line. (See earlier blogs especially The Tea Party, The New Congress and Palin - All You Ever Needed To Know).
Again and again the Tea Party have shown they don't give a hoot about what the Republican Party and what it's doyens have to say. They are not susceptible to the argument that their position is likely to help the common enemy - the Democrats. To date they have been strongest in the Republican Primaries electing nominees that have no chance rather than compromise to the Republican establishment. Their de facto leader is Sarah Palin who is on the road again. Whether or not she chooses to run for the Republican nomination and or chooses to be King Maker in the next election, she has never been more powerful and well funded.
SHORT TERM IMPACT
This election changes the whole dynamic of a potential bipartisan solution to address the economic woes of the country. The urgency the Democrats may have seen earlier on has now vanished. Hang in till 2012 - 2013 and they can have their own solution. In some ways this is pretty destructive because they also buying into scenario that an organized 20% of the American electorate can control one side of the debate. They need to continue the bipartisan discussions. President Clinton has reminded them of the urgency. This notwithstanding their apparent politcal advantage in just running agianst the Ryan plan that the Republicans are suicidally hanging onto.
The Republicans for their part need to tell the Tea Party where to get off. If they don't, they face the reality of them hijacking the party of Lincoln. The Tea Party want nothing more that not to have to become an official third party. The latter have had no success in the US. The plan is to take over the GOP. The fascinating observation is that they are making no bones about it and the GOP establishment, need to take them on. They have nothing to loose because if they carry on, as they are doing now, pretending that this is all really part of a spectrum they are going to loose out anyway
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
OSAMA OBAMA - REALLY AN AMERICAN?
To an objective observer, the never ending debate swirling around President Obama's persona and credibility has to be incomprehensible. The invective against him and the belief, for example, that he is a closet non American born Muslim, if not agent, whirls around the internet and in e-mails in a non stop staggering fashion. The public manifestation of this debate, until recently, manifested in the "birther" movement. This group, (20 - 25% of most surveys), believed that Obama was born in Kenya. The proof that they were right was that Obama's long birth certificate had not been produced. Donald Trump launched his Presidential bid as an aggressive "birther. (See Blogs, The Tea Party - The New GOP and Donald Trumps Palin). From no where Trump became a leading candidate in the Republican race on the basis of his forcefully arguing that Obama had not proved that he was an American and therefore Constitutionally entitled to be President.
BIRTHERS' THINKING?
If one analyzes the "birther' conspiracy theory it would appear that way the "birthers" have to be thinking is as follows:
On or about, August 4, 1961, the day of Obama's birth, Obama's daddy, having married and impregnated a white American lady, and Obama's granny, got together and decided that they would hatch a plot that would get a non American Muslim president of America. Instead of allowing the American lady to have her baby where she was they would schlep her to Kenya to have the baby. The purpose was then to get the most powerful nation in the world to get a non American born Muslim to sell out to the Muslim fundamentalists about 47 years later. At that time there were not too many openly militant Muslim Fundamentalists but it was well known that Obama's daddy, by Obama's own admission - he wrote a book about it - was an exceptionally bright chap. (To this day it is uncertain as to why Barack had to be non American born but these Africans are pretty devious). Now the American mommy lady, obviously, was pretty influential and bought into this whole conspiracy so she got the Hawaii Authorities to say she delivered the baby in Hawaii and even got them to put a fake announcement in the newspaper. From then on it gets a bit murky but who cares, Obama, who has a bad memory of his birth, couldn't prove otherwise.
THE BIRTHERS' PROOF
The birthers, rather stupidly I think, maintained that the key proof of their argument was the failure of Obama to produce his long birth certificate. (I would have hung in with the granny and resurrected her and brought her onto every TV channel, but we all make mistakes). Obama then produced his long birth certificate and of course Trump declared victory, maintaining that all his investigators, who could prove that Obama was hiding the truth, had forced Obama to show that he, Obama, in fact, was telling the truth. This of course resulted in confusion among the birthers. Trump rallied and said he would now move on to the question of how the subsequent editor of The Harvard Law Journal could have had the qualifications to go to an Ivy League College in the first place.
So the attack was on Obama not really being American and or that he is a fraud.
DEATHERS TAKE OVER FROM BIRTHERS
But the birthers were not to be thwarted because of the following event:
Obama, seemingly out of the blue, acted, courageously, boldly and decisively - not on taxes or on jobs or the socialization of America - but on national security. After a successful effort to locate Osama Bin Laden, he ordered the elite Navy Seals to raid America's enemy number one's lair. They killed Osama, photographed him, collected DNA, buried him according, as we might expect, according to Muslim law. In the process of this daring raid a mass of intelligence was obtained. Objectively, this was a massive coupe - 9/11 had finally been avenged. Osama's wives said he was dead, El Qaeda threatened to avenge Osama's death and the Seals said they killed him. But the problem was that Obama decided not to release the photos of the dead Osama so as not to turn him into a martyr. ( If he had we all know it would have been a photo shop job anyway). So with no photographs who could believe this President?
So the birthers became the deathers.
A facebook page "Osama Bin Laden Not Dead" has been created. Fox news analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano wanted to see a photograph. Alex Jones, a Texas based radio host, boasted 24 million hits on his You Tube Channel, claimed that Bin Laden's death was a hoax. Kevin Lane, a well known blogger, denied that Obama was dead and maintained that this was a distraction from Obama's birth certificate bollux and on and on and on.
The Republican contenders in the first Presidential debate maintained that Obama "got lucky" in this instance and that generally he had screwed up American foreign policy. They wanted, as so many others did, to see photographs to "prove" it was Osama. Many gave the credit to President Bush. Some said that the best they could say for Obama was that he had carried on President Bush's policies. No-one was prepared to give him unconditional credit for a collection of gutsy decisions that had got rid of public enemy number one.
WHY?
At the end of the day why has this President's been so hammered? His credibility to be the American President was always being attacked, by this group, in one way or another rather than his policies. ( In fairness this is not the line of the Republican establishment but their control over the party is in doubt - see Blog - The tea Party the New GOP.) This has to be code for you are not accepted as being American. Apparently it sticks in the crawl to acknowledge him as the personification of America, as American Presidents are, and the Commander in Chief to boot. It is almost as if he is considered an alien that somehow by a strange set of circumstances put him, a non Anglo - Saxon, in the White House. The fact that he represents the American melting pot and everything America purports to represent, appears not to resonate with a sizable but very influential minority of the electorate.
OBAMA'S PEDIGREE
His early upbringing was non American - in fact Asian. He like many others today is of mixed parentage but was in effect brought up by the white half. His white mother was way ahead of her time and obviously gave his white conventional grandparents, who were the major influence in his upbringing, grey hairs. He hankered for Africa and "The Dreams of His Father". He is regarded as African American but is more racially blind than most. His is a classical story of the American dream - from log cabin to President. He also, like so many other presidents attended an Ivy League College. His cabinet is representative of all groups. He is a strong advocate of feminism, already having appointed half the number of the women that have ever served on the Supreme Court. He has pushed for Latinos and has their support. So in it's face what could be more American?
Well the plain truth is that he just is different. And the difference is more than color. He has experience of many many cultures. As all these "Birthers" and "Deathers" have maintained, in Code, he just isn't American and should not be President. For example, even if he was born in Hawaii, is Hawaii really America? And it doesn't take a Freud to work out why they believe this.
DEFINING MOMENT
However this may all pan out, the Osama raid will turn out to be the defining moment In Obama's Presidency. Maybe he "got lucky". Maybe El Quada were already passe in Muslim countries as all the revolutions were not for Osama but rather for freedom. The bottom line is that he destroyed the American nemesis and the myth of Osama's invincibility and allowed Americans to hold their heads up high. So whatever the Birthers or Deathers may say - not too bad an achievement for someone they do not regard as American!
BIRTHERS' THINKING?
If one analyzes the "birther' conspiracy theory it would appear that way the "birthers" have to be thinking is as follows:
On or about, August 4, 1961, the day of Obama's birth, Obama's daddy, having married and impregnated a white American lady, and Obama's granny, got together and decided that they would hatch a plot that would get a non American Muslim president of America. Instead of allowing the American lady to have her baby where she was they would schlep her to Kenya to have the baby. The purpose was then to get the most powerful nation in the world to get a non American born Muslim to sell out to the Muslim fundamentalists about 47 years later. At that time there were not too many openly militant Muslim Fundamentalists but it was well known that Obama's daddy, by Obama's own admission - he wrote a book about it - was an exceptionally bright chap. (To this day it is uncertain as to why Barack had to be non American born but these Africans are pretty devious). Now the American mommy lady, obviously, was pretty influential and bought into this whole conspiracy so she got the Hawaii Authorities to say she delivered the baby in Hawaii and even got them to put a fake announcement in the newspaper. From then on it gets a bit murky but who cares, Obama, who has a bad memory of his birth, couldn't prove otherwise.
THE BIRTHERS' PROOF
The birthers, rather stupidly I think, maintained that the key proof of their argument was the failure of Obama to produce his long birth certificate. (I would have hung in with the granny and resurrected her and brought her onto every TV channel, but we all make mistakes). Obama then produced his long birth certificate and of course Trump declared victory, maintaining that all his investigators, who could prove that Obama was hiding the truth, had forced Obama to show that he, Obama, in fact, was telling the truth. This of course resulted in confusion among the birthers. Trump rallied and said he would now move on to the question of how the subsequent editor of The Harvard Law Journal could have had the qualifications to go to an Ivy League College in the first place.
So the attack was on Obama not really being American and or that he is a fraud.
DEATHERS TAKE OVER FROM BIRTHERS
But the birthers were not to be thwarted because of the following event:
Obama, seemingly out of the blue, acted, courageously, boldly and decisively - not on taxes or on jobs or the socialization of America - but on national security. After a successful effort to locate Osama Bin Laden, he ordered the elite Navy Seals to raid America's enemy number one's lair. They killed Osama, photographed him, collected DNA, buried him according, as we might expect, according to Muslim law. In the process of this daring raid a mass of intelligence was obtained. Objectively, this was a massive coupe - 9/11 had finally been avenged. Osama's wives said he was dead, El Qaeda threatened to avenge Osama's death and the Seals said they killed him. But the problem was that Obama decided not to release the photos of the dead Osama so as not to turn him into a martyr. ( If he had we all know it would have been a photo shop job anyway). So with no photographs who could believe this President?
So the birthers became the deathers.
A facebook page "Osama Bin Laden Not Dead" has been created. Fox news analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano wanted to see a photograph. Alex Jones, a Texas based radio host, boasted 24 million hits on his You Tube Channel, claimed that Bin Laden's death was a hoax. Kevin Lane, a well known blogger, denied that Obama was dead and maintained that this was a distraction from Obama's birth certificate bollux and on and on and on.
The Republican contenders in the first Presidential debate maintained that Obama "got lucky" in this instance and that generally he had screwed up American foreign policy. They wanted, as so many others did, to see photographs to "prove" it was Osama. Many gave the credit to President Bush. Some said that the best they could say for Obama was that he had carried on President Bush's policies. No-one was prepared to give him unconditional credit for a collection of gutsy decisions that had got rid of public enemy number one.
WHY?
At the end of the day why has this President's been so hammered? His credibility to be the American President was always being attacked, by this group, in one way or another rather than his policies. ( In fairness this is not the line of the Republican establishment but their control over the party is in doubt - see Blog - The tea Party the New GOP.) This has to be code for you are not accepted as being American. Apparently it sticks in the crawl to acknowledge him as the personification of America, as American Presidents are, and the Commander in Chief to boot. It is almost as if he is considered an alien that somehow by a strange set of circumstances put him, a non Anglo - Saxon, in the White House. The fact that he represents the American melting pot and everything America purports to represent, appears not to resonate with a sizable but very influential minority of the electorate.
OBAMA'S PEDIGREE
His early upbringing was non American - in fact Asian. He like many others today is of mixed parentage but was in effect brought up by the white half. His white mother was way ahead of her time and obviously gave his white conventional grandparents, who were the major influence in his upbringing, grey hairs. He hankered for Africa and "The Dreams of His Father". He is regarded as African American but is more racially blind than most. His is a classical story of the American dream - from log cabin to President. He also, like so many other presidents attended an Ivy League College. His cabinet is representative of all groups. He is a strong advocate of feminism, already having appointed half the number of the women that have ever served on the Supreme Court. He has pushed for Latinos and has their support. So in it's face what could be more American?
Well the plain truth is that he just is different. And the difference is more than color. He has experience of many many cultures. As all these "Birthers" and "Deathers" have maintained, in Code, he just isn't American and should not be President. For example, even if he was born in Hawaii, is Hawaii really America? And it doesn't take a Freud to work out why they believe this.
DEFINING MOMENT
However this may all pan out, the Osama raid will turn out to be the defining moment In Obama's Presidency. Maybe he "got lucky". Maybe El Quada were already passe in Muslim countries as all the revolutions were not for Osama but rather for freedom. The bottom line is that he destroyed the American nemesis and the myth of Osama's invincibility and allowed Americans to hold their heads up high. So whatever the Birthers or Deathers may say - not too bad an achievement for someone they do not regard as American!
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