THE TEA PARTY - THE NEW GOP?

The  current state of political denial cannot continue. The GOP does not resemble the GOP of 2008 or even 2010. The party has moved profoundly to the right and the Tea Party are remodeling it to their own vision. This is more than a shift of emphasis, it is a shift of philosophy.  Enough has been blogged here about the genesis of this phenomenon. (See blogs -The Tea Party, The New Congress and Palin, The GOP the Presidency and Palin and Donald Trumps Palin). The Tea Party for the largest part have made good their promise to hold their newly elected members feet to the fire. They are not a rag bag motley disparate bunch they are a vast organized operation that at the very least, control, many of the GP Primaries and therefore the GOP candidates and therefore the GOP. The GOP Speaker, Boehner, has been threatened, either toe the line or you will face a Primary Challenge.

REVOLUTIONARIES

In many ways the Tea Party are revolutionaries. There is open talk of not passing a higher debt ceiling let alone their acceptance of shutting down the Government  - regardless of the consequences. The hint of not raising the debt ceiling is already sending shivers throughout the financial world. Interest rates would rocket and America would be on it's way to defaulting on it's foreign debt. The Tea Party may only represent 10% of the total electorate, and therefore 20% of those that bother to vote, but that is all that it takes. David Gergen, the respected and balanced GOP political commentator and advisor to 4 Presidents, just shook his head in disbelief and disgust when the Tea Party obsession on ending funding Planned Parenthood, was considered important enough to shut down the government.

WEATHERVANE DONALD.

"The do whatever it takes", Donald Trump's possible Presidential challenge is indicative of the way the wind is blowing. In his past Presidential flirtations he was in favor of a 14.5% Tax on Estates over $10,000,000 to boost Social Security and Medicare and Universal Health Care. Now he is first and foremost, a birther pandering to the 20%. A position so counter productive to the American electorate in general, that the Republican establishment have officially nixed it and even the Republican Governor of Arizona has vetoed a bill that would not allow Obama on the ballot unless he produced his "long" birth certificate. This was a brave move from an otherwise right wing Republican Governor, hopefully serving notice that the Tea Party does not control the agenda.

The GOP Presidential hopeful list also tells it all. Other than Haley Barbour, a rank outsider, there is no establishment candidate. The front runners are all non establishment members.  Gone are the insiders that have been the postwar establishment Republican nominees -  Dole, Bushes, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, Dewey.... even the maverick McCain is no longer a maverick. Instead there is a whole bunch of Tea Party supporters among the frontrunners for the GOP nomination - Trump being the most recent.

THE NEW POLITIK

The recent bipartisan vote to extend the Federal Budget has to be a harbinger of many bipartisan deals that are needed to rescue the American economy.  Boehner could not have delivered the deal he made with Obama and Reid without the support from the Democrats. Too many of his caucus just would not go along with the more than impressive concessions he extracted from Obama. My guess is that in the next few months it is all going to become more and more tense.

It could be argued that the Democrats have the same problems. Nancy Pelosi angrily voted against the Boehner, Reid and Obama deal. However she was not involved in the process. She was left out of the negotiations. It could also be argued that that was tactical. Reid represented the Democrats and the issue between Nancy and Obama is really one of degree not philosophy. The issue between the Tea Party and the Republican establishment is far deeper. The former appear quite prepared to pull down the whole pack of cards, while the GOP establishment would read that as the economic destruction of America.

So the question facing the Republican establishment is, how far do they go in meeting the Tea Party? At the end of the day they have to take them on for the battle for the heart and sole of the Republican party. If they don't the Tea Party will be the Republican Party. If they take them on the co operation needed from the Democrats, to "save" the country would be unprecedented in current times.

DONALD TRUMPS PALIN?

For those who think Donald Trump is not for real as a Presidential candidate - think again. For those who think that his inane questioning of Obama's birthplace, after the issue has been declared dead and buried, put paid to any credence that he was running for the Presidency - really, really, think again. In the current topsy turvy world of politics, where nothing seems to make much sense,  he has many of the necessary credentials. To prove the latter point his persistent ranting as a "birther", suddenly shot him up in the polls as a Republican candidate. This even after the top Fox Republican TV host, Bill O'Reilly had told him to get serious. The official Republican party line has been that this line of attack is counterproductive but then the line that Trump toes is his own.

CREDENTIALS

Well what are his credentials? He has massive public exposure. His show, the Apprentice, has high, high ratings that went even higher following his announcement that he was a "birther". He is on finance shows, talk shows and political shows. He was a regular on Larry King's show. In fact other than his colossal ego he was considered pretty middle of the road. He has unashamedly touted his financial success. He told an interviewer that one of the reasons he would be a good president was because he was so rich!

He has an opinion on everything. When the Libyan war broke out his boastful contribution to the debate was that he had gyped Gadhaffi by hopelessly overcharging him rent when the latter visited the USA. He shows a rare mixture of charm, bravado, ruthlessness and empathy that seems to resonate with the viewers. His trade mark is barking out, "Your are fired". This he does with sadistic glee as he eliminates the contenders one by one on his show, "The Apprentice". He is thus a member of the elite, an icon  - a status that can be gained in no time by wealth and entertainment skills in this environment.

His private life is not all that marvelous but then he has no pretensions to having led a monastic life. He runs the Miss Universe competition, among other things, and has been involved in controversies relating to the lives and behavior of the beauties. Gingrich has claims to respectability so he cannot glibly skip the issue. Newt Gingrich is just too compromised to survive the primaries let alone a Presidential race.

THE COMPETITION

So he has even more name recognition than Sarah. Suddenly the conservative base are taking note of him because he is a birther, a cause that even Sarah and the other Sarah wannabees, such as Michele Bachmann and Huckabee, have abandoned. His birther move is thus unashamedly calculated to get him recognition among the voter base that is needed in the Republican Primaries. When push comes to shove he will know exactly how to get out of his rave, once nominated.

His financial qualifications are a big, big plus in a situation where everyone acknowledges that America is in deep deep financial trouble - "We need a financial manager to get us out of this mess". The other financial candidate, Romney, is responsible for Obamacare in Massachusetts and as a Mormon is not going to get the bible belt votes.

His independence is another plus. He can hardly be called a Washington insider. You are dealing with a disillusioned electorate where last time the independent voters opted for Obama in the hope that he would be "different". That is not the current perception of Obama and as politicians go Trump is certainly "different".

Then there are a collection of barely known Republican Governors who have no money and no name recognition that, barring a miracle,  really cannot really be serious contenders. So we are beginning to be left with Donald. I think I better stop because I am beginning to convince myself that Donald is about to move into the White House toting one of those mattresses that he so convincingly advertises......

However, hopefully, he may just let this one go by because there may have been 43 Presidents but there has only been one Donald Trump.