THE MIDDLE EAST DOMINO EFFECT

INTRODUCTION

It is barely a month since the last blog - "Egypt And The New Future" - and the Arab world has changed even more dramatically. First and foremost is the ongoing Libyan revolution which is currently center stage in the world psyche. But while the Libyan chaos is occupying all the attention the rest of the Middle East is in various states of turmoil. In short order there has been a change of government in Tunisia; Oman started paying off it's out of work citizens and the Sultan hired an additional 50,000; Saleh of Yemen clung to power firing 5 Governors and blamed Israel and America for the unrest; Even al - Malaki of Iraq gave his ministers a 100 days to deliver results or be fired; Algeria lifted it's 19 year - old State of Emergency and restrictions on free speech and assembly; Assad of Syria planned reforms that included local elections, a new media law and more power to private organizations; The Sudanese President, Omar al - Bashir, decided not to run for another term; and there also have been protests of varying degrees in Bahrain, Mauritania, Djibouti, Kuwait and Morocco. Even Israel and Palestine have made responses.

In addition the Iranian protests have continued despite the record of repressive responses meted out by the government. There have been executions, arrests and brutality yet protests continue. One cannot imagine the present regime lasting another election. One would guess that Ahmadinejad will be more soundly defeated than he was last time. What is going to be the response of the young and the women, who are the impetus of this wave of change? How will the massive army and security structure respond? Time will tell. Meantime back to the current focus of attention - Libya.

LIBYA


If one would have had to have predicted which one of the dictators would hang onto the bitter end it would have been Gadhafi. (If one would have been asked to predict three months ago that this question was even relevant the question would have invoked incredulity). Gadhafi is at best a delusional megalomaniac. It appears that a prolonged civil war is on the horizon.

That is not the dilemna that is occupying the Western and World leaders. Central to policy making at the moment is whether a continuing Gadhafi regime could be tolerated. What, also, would the political impact worldwide, if those good faith revolutionaries, who have once again spurred on from the sidelines with Western rhetoric,were to be mowed down by Gadhafi's firepower and mercenaries? This while the rest of the world stood by.

The ramifications of any decision are immense. The USA and NATO powers must have very little stomach for yet another military adventure. Even if they did how will this play back home with the current economic situation? Also the indigenous revolutionaries they might rescue may well tell the "imperialists" to go home. What makes this situation more urgent than Dafur, let us say, is oil. After all the West got rid of that tyrant Sadam really just for oil. Oil makes some type of decision imperative.

At the same time even the execution of a no fly zone over Libya is an expensive complicated exercise that will involve bombing of anti - aircraft batteries and radar at the very least. Ideally any coalition solution should include the Muslim world - the new and the old. The new - Egypt and Tunisia - are already delivering in the form of humanitarian aid. The old are insecure enough as it is but to regain any credibility in this new shakedown they should be there boots and all with humanitarian aid and be part of any coalition that will do anything vaguely military.

The no fly option must become more and more a reality with the continuing bombing by Gadhafi's unopposed air force. However for whatever reasons China and Russia are sure to be opposed thus adding to the diplomatic nightmare.

ISRAEL AND PALESTINE


How this all impacts the Palestinian territories of the West bank and Gaza is really an enigma. Both Hamas and Fatah suppressed pro Egyptian revolutionary demonstrations. This obviously out of fear that such expressions of solidarity of revolution may make the protestors look even harder at their own ineffectual governments.  The central issue among the protestors is not, for the moment, Israel but rather the Hamas and Fatah leadership. A rally is organized for March 15, 2010 to demand that the political leadership of the two groups no longer stay divided. This seems a pretty tall order. Neither of the two are likely to risk weakening their positions. Reports say that Hamas are not interested in elections for the present as polls indicate that their position is weak. Fatah are not going to risk expanding the PLO unless it can be sure that it will remain dominant and so it goes..

Also Hamas is a "terrorist" organization with not much bona fides anywhere. This even in the eyes of the new Egyptian regime who have not opened their borders to Gaza.  Abbas, according to Wikileaks was in the process of selling out to Israel so his stocks cannot be to high. So this does not look too good for anyone other than Israel. While the central issue among protestors is the incompetence of their own regimes Israel must remain on the back burner and that is why it is in Israeli interests to negotiate and compromise from strength. Rather work out solutions while not under pressure, and, this Netanyahu has decided to do. On March 2, 2011 he suggested the immediate recognition of a Palestinian state with temporary borders for the moment, as part of an interim peace agreement. There is also a commitment that the eventual borders would be aligned with those that preceded the 1966/1967 war. Netanyahu has his own problems too with the right.

So there is yet another smoldering melting pot behind the scenes.

OBSERVATIONS 


The major fear, that we were bracing for a holy war by a united radical Muslim world led by el Quada, has been put to rest. These revolutions are for democracy and not totalitarian theocracy. They, for the most part involve the youth and women.  El Quada, have for practical purposes, been sidelined. There is nought for their comfort in this turn of events. Iran's hope of leading the Muslim world must be coming more and more of a dream. Who would like to import their totalitarianism? However the chickens are coming home to roost with regard to the West's oily support of the Arab world dictators. It is obvious, that whatever new regimes come into place they will not have the same cozy relationship that the dictatorships had with the West. The West had and still has an enabling relationship with the oil states. Gadhafi was redeemed in the name of oil and got his Lockabee bomber back to boot.

The immediate key to this is Saudi Arabia the world's greatest provider of oil. The million and a half barrels that Libya produces can easily be made up by them. They too have a repressive regime. Of all the Arab States the toppling of the current leadership would be regressive as the theocrats, there. believe the king and his son are too liberal.

So each day brings a new wrinkle and a new scenario.

To be continued.